Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 480

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 31.10.2017 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair is still being corrected towards 1.1668; it has formed another consolidation range. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may grow to reach 1.1680; if to the downside – continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1530.

EURUSD

 

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating. Possibly, today the price may reach 1.3238 and then continue falling towards 1.3000.

GBPUSD

 

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair is also consolidating. We think, today the price may grow to reach 0.9991. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation range to the upside, the market may reach 1.0100; if to the downside – continue the correction with the target at 0.9886.

USDCHF

 

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair has reached the target of the first descending impulse. Possibly, today the price may grow towards 113.73 and form another consolidation range. If later the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the market may reach 112.40; if to the upside – continue growing inside the uptrend with the target at 115.00.

USDJPY

 

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is trading to rebound from the upside border of the descending channel. Possibly, the price may fall towards 0.7615. An alternative scenario implies that the market may continue the correction to the upside and reach at 0.7760.

AUDUSD

 

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair is moving downwards. The first target is at 57.60. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 58.17 and then start another descending wave towards 56.55.

USDRUB

 

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed the correction. We think, today the price may fall towards 1264. Later, in our opinion, the market may break this level and continue falling with the target at 1250.

GOLD

 

BRENT

Brent is consolidating at the top of the ascending wave. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation range to the upside, the market may to reach 61.00; if to the downside – start another correction with the target at 59.50.

BRENT

 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

EURUSD: correction complete

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Monday the 30th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. Euro bulls managed to restore the price to 1.1658, partially recovering the losses incurred by the ECB meeting and the strong US GDP data for the third quarter.

The euro rose against a dollar losing ground on all fronts. This correction came about after it was revealed that some of Trump’s former aides are being investigated over alleged contact with Russian officials during the presidential campaign. The correction was also helped along by a drop in US bond yields. Anticipation of Wednesday’s Fed meeting and Trump’s announcement of his candidate for Fed Chair is adding to the sense of nervousness on the market.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 06:00 Japan: BoJ interest rate decision and monetary policy statement;
  • 08:00 Japan: housing starts (Sep), construction orders (Sep);
  • 09:30 Japan: BoJ press conference;
  • 09:30 France: GDP (Q3);
  • 10:45 France: CPI (Oct);
  • 13:00 Eurozone: CPI (Oct), GDP (Q3), unemployment rate (Sep);
  • 15:30 Canada: GDP (Aug), industrial product price (Sep);
  • 16:00 USA: S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices (Aug);
  • 16:45 USA: Chicago PMI (Oct);
  • 22:30 Canada: BoC governor Poloz’s speech.

Fig 1. EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The news surrounding Trump and the drop in US bond yields changed the price’s direction during the US session. Instead of 1.1555, we saw 1.1655. The euro ran out of steam around the 67th degree at 1.1656. From there, the price dropped to 1.1625 (LB).

An upwards channel has formed over the last 38 hours with a range of 45 pips. At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1637. I’m expecting the price to exit this channel downwards somewhere between 14:00 and 16:00 today. Taking the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting into account, the correction could last until Thursday. Futures suggest that interest rates will be maintained at their current levels on the 1st of November.

For the head and shoulders model to work out on the daily timeframe, the price shouldn’t stay above 1.16. In theory, we should head towards 1.1555 levels today or else the bearish impulse will start to fade.

US 10Y bond yields have fallen to 2.36%, where there is a support, so a rebound is possible. The euro/dollar pair has corrected by 67 degrees. On the crosses, the euro is trading up against the Swiss franc and Aussie dollar, and down against the rest. I think that the correctional phase is at an end now. The conditions for a further drop have been fulfilled. What we need now is some activity from sellers and moderate trading volume.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 31.10.2017 (AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7683; the instrument is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. We should expect the price to test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7690 and continue moving downwards to reach 0.7560. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.7750. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7840.

AUDUSD

 

NZD USD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.6859; the instrument is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. We should expect the price to test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6870 and then continue moving downwards to reach 0.6750. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.6990. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7110.

NZDUSD

 

USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2824; the instrument is still moving above Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue growing. We should expect the price to test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.2780 and then continue moving upwards to reach 1.2990. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.2670. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2580.

USDCAD

 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

BTCUSD: new all-time high reached on rumours

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

On Sunday the 29th of October, bitcoin hit a new all-time high during the second half of the day. Bitcoin reached a price of 6,345 USD on the Bitfinex exchange.

Buyers had been preparing an attack for the past two days, during which the price consolidated around 5,650 USD. After consolidating within a range of 238 USD, the price broke through the trend line at 5,935 USD, and then through the resistance zone from 6,020 to 6,055. By the end of the day, the price had reached the upper boundary of the U3 MA channel (average line with a period of 55 and a 9% upwards deviation). After reaching this level, the price started to undergo a correction.

There are rumours that bitcoin reaching a new all-time high could be related to the appearance of a new cryptocurrency exchange in China; ZB.com. It’s as of yet unavailable, with trading set to start on the 1st of November. The twittershpere suggests that the Chinese government may be behind this new exchange, allowing its people to trade legally on the new platform once other exchanges close on the 31st of October. Heretofore operational exchanges OKCoin, Huobi, and BTCC, have yet to publish anything on their sites with regards to closing their exchanges.

On the daily timeframe, a diagonal triangle with three subsequent higher highs is forming beneath the R1 resistance. This has resulted in a double bearish divergence between the price and the AO indicator. The price is showing two rising tops (2 and 3), while below on the AO there are two corresponding lower highs.

A double divergence is a strong signal. If this growth was down to rumours, we could see profit-taking on long positions at any moment. Bitcoin likes to be plotted in successive peaks of 3 or 4. If we see this type of pricing model followed by a sharp drop, the price should fall to the first base in this model. In our case, this level is at 5,114 USD.

If this pricing model doesn’t work out, there will be a long flat. In any case, the rally’s end will be the driver for any subsequent movements. See for yourself, to bring the price of bitcoin up by 5% on the Bitfinex exchange, 4,766 BTC needs to be purchased in the order book, or 29.5m USD added to it at an exchange rate of 6,204 USD. To bring the price down by 5%, 3,774 bitcoins need to be sold. There’s significant buying and selling volume at the moment. For the support or resistance levels to be broken, we need these volumes to get depleted (i.e. for people to cancel their limit orders).

Source: BTCUSD: new all-time high reached on rumours

 

The Oil is Updating Its Highs and Getting Ready for a New Attack

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Senior Analyst at RoboForex

The oil is still getting more expensive. Last Friday, the Brent futures contract price for December broke $60 per barrel and continues rising at the beginning of this week. The “bulls” clearly had enough time to “rest” during the weekend and right now are ready for new highs. The oil hasn’t been so expensive for more than two years – the current levels were last reached in July 2015. In early November, market conditions remain in favor of the oil buyers. It means that there might be more records in the future.

However, the “commodity bulls” really have reasons to be active. Last week, Mohammad bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, confirmed that he was in favor of extending the OPEC+ agreement after its expiration in March 2018. The document, which establishes strict borders and limits for the oil extracting countries, will expire in the first quarter of the next year. The organization has no plan B, but now Saudis joined Russia, the country that promoted the agreement for extension. Later, these countries might as well draw over other members of the organization, which are doubtful or undecided.

It’s quite clear that the borders of the agreement can’t last forever. But there are no alternatives right now, given that the document really proves to be effective and provides the slowdown of the oil demand. If the agreement is extended for another 6-9 months, the OPEC will have enough time to develop a new strategy how to exit the period of low extraction.

Additional support to the oil “bulls” is provided by political and geopolitical tensions in Libya and Iraq respectively. In this light, investors showed no interest in Baker Hughes reports, which indicated the decline in the number of the rigs in the USA (-4 units). The indicator has been falling for the fourth consecutive week and that’s another “bullish factor” for the market.

From the technical point of view, Brent is trading inside the uptrend. The short-term upside target may be at 61.35, which is close to the upside border of the mid-term channel. Also, we can’t exclude a possibility that the price may break the border and reach the upside target of the short-term channel at 63.50. But the most probable scenario suggests that the instrument may rebound from 61.35 and then resume falling towards 58.86, which provided significant resistance earlier and was located near the retracement of 50.0%.

zac-storella

Author: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Senior Analyst at RoboForex

 

Attention!

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

From “1:5 to 5:1 in 35 Years” – The Long March AWAY from Safety

By Elliott Wave International


 

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline From “1:5 to 5:1 in 35 Years” – The Long March AWAY from Safety. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 30.10.2017 (GOLD, USD/CHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

At the H4 chart, the downtrend continues. If the XAU/USD pair breaks the local low at 1260.90, the instrument may move towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1243.30 and 1230.60 respectively.

GOLD1

As we can see at the H1 chart, the convergence is being formed and the pair may try to reverse. By now, the price has already been corrected by 23.6%. The next targets of the ascending correction may be the retracements of 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% at 1279.80, 1284.70 and 1289.60 respectively. However, if the price reaches a new low, the instrument may fall towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1259.80 and 1257.60 respectively.

GOLD2

 

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

At the H4 chart, the uptrend continues. The USD/CHF pair has already been corrected to the upside by 61.8% and may continue growing towards the retracements of 76.0% at 1.0125. The next possible target may the high at 1.0345.

USDCHF1

As we can see at the H1 chart, the pair is being corrected to the downside and has already reached the retracement of 38.2%. The next targets of this correction may be the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 0.9953 and 0.9934 respectively. After finishing the correction, the instrument may resume growing towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1.0066 and 1.0084 respectively.

USDCHF2
 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 30.10.2017 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair has reached the target of another descending wave and right now is moving upwards to reach the first target at 1.1668. Possibly, the price may start another correction. Later, in our opinion, the market may fall towards 1.1620.

EURUSD

 

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating and forming the ascending structure towards 1.3174. After that, the instrument may continue falling to reach 1.3000.

GBPUSD

 

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair has reached the local target of the ascending wave and right now is forming the correctional structure. The first target is at 0.9940. Later, in our opinion, the market may continue growing inside the uptrend with the target at 0.9991.

USDCHF

 

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair is consolidating at the top of the ascending structure. Possibly, today the price may fall to reach 113.30. After that, the instrument may start another growth towards 115.00.

USDJPY

 

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is moving upwards. We think, today the price may start another correction towards the first target at 0.7683. Later, in our opinion, the market may fall with the target at 0.7640.

AUDUSD

 

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair has completed the correctional wave along with the first descending impulse. Possibly, the price may continue forming the first structure with the target at 57.65. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 58.16.

USDRUB

 

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed the descending structure and right now is being corrected towards 1277.30. Later, in our opinion, the market may resume falling with the target at 1250.55.

GOLD

 

BRENT

Brent has finished another ascending wave. We think, today the price may start falling to reach 59.50. After that, the instrument may continue moving upwards with the target at 61.05.

BRENT

 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

EURUSD: target at 1.1555

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Friday the 27th of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. Euro bulls held on to 1.1620 level until the last moment. Pressure on them increased after the publication of strong 3rd quarter GDP data from the US. The reading came to 3% against a forecast of 2.5%. The euro dropped to 1.1580 on this news.

The situation in Catalonia put additional pressure on buyers. The Catalonian parliament has voted for an official declaration of independence. This brought German bond yields down while pushing gold up.

It was later revealed that Spanish Prime Minister, M Rajoy, triggered Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution, bringing Catalonia under direct rule. Carles Puigdemont, the president of Catalonia, along with all his ministers and parliamentarians, have been sacked by the Spanish government. The government of Catalonia, however, has refused to resign.

The euro tried to recover, but the correction only started from 1.1575, which was brought about by a drop in US 10Y bond yields. They dropped on the news that Jerome Powell, a member of the Fed’s board of governors and an advocate of loose monetary policy, has emerged as a favourite for the position of Chair.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:00 Germany: retail sales (Sep);
  • 11:00 Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (Oct);
  • 12:30 UK: M4 money supply (Sep),mortgage approvals (Sep), consumer credit (Sep);
  • 13:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Oct), economic sentiment indicator (Oct), industrial confidence (Oct), business climate (Oct);
  • 15:30 USA: personal consumption expenditures – price index (Sep), personal income (Sep), personal spending (Sep);
  • 16:00 Germany: consumer price index (Oct).

Fig 1. EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The euro remains under pressure since the ECB’s meeting and Mario Draghi’s subsequent press conference. The euro is trading up in Asia, and is strengthening on all the crosses. This is a technical correction and doesn’t have anything fundamental driving it. The price is rising without volume, which is rather strange. In my forecast, I’m allowing for growth to the 45th degree, which is currently sitting at 1.1629.

I’d like to bring your attention to one important factor. Since there’s a head and shoulders model forming on the daily timeframe, a double divergence between the AO indicator and the price is most likely forming on the hourly timeframe. I’ve based my forecast on the indicators and the price.

The stochastic oscillator is in the sell zone. Because of this, before selling the euro, we should keep an eye on the dynamics of the euro/pound cross as well as US 10Y bond yields. For the downwards movement to continue, we need US bond yields to rise and for the cross to fall.

Source: EURUSD: target at 1.1555

How to Safely Store Your Digital Coins

By Adinah Brown

Digital currency is emerging as a solid alternative to credit cards and other forms of payment online. In addition, the value of cryptocurrency as an investment continues to grow. Although there is a significant value proposition in these currencies, many potential digital currency investors may be concerned about security. However, there are many safe ways to trade and keep bitcoin, and the key is finding the right kind of wallet.

What Is a Digital Currency Wallet?

A digital wallet securely stores cryptocurrency. The user can send and receive currency and keep it safely for an extended period of time. The system works through private and public keys. The private key is a digital code the owner uses to provide access to a public code that corresponds to a specific amount of the cryptocurrency. To ensure security, it is essential to work with a reputable wallet company that offers a high-quality product with convenient features and top-notch security.

What to Look for in a Digital Currency Wallet

Since keeping your cryptocurrency on exchanges is not a safe way to manage your digital coins, significant care should be taken to selecting a virtual wallet. Think of your digital wallet as an investment that will make trading in cryptocurrencies safe and lucrative. Here are some questions you should ask before choosing a specific kind of wallet:

· Does the company have a solid reputation for security?

· How accessible are the coins once they are stored?

· How much does it cost?

· Is the wallet easy to use?

· Does it have attractive features?

Of course, not all of these priorities carry the same weight for every user. Some tech-savvy cryptocurrency investors may prefer sophistication over user-friendliness, whereas for others, the cost may be the deciding factor. Do some research on the top cryptocurrency wallets and read reviews to find out which wallets successful investors are using.

Varieties of Digital Wallets

Not only are there many brands of digital wallets to choose from, but there are several basic categories:

· Software Wallets

· Mobile Wallets

· Web Wallets

· Paper Wallets

For investors who prefer plenty of cutting-edge features, a software wallet may be the best choice. As the name suggests, these wallets are available in the form of software that can be installed on a computer. Although mobile wallets provide convenience, software wallets can be more complex and offer extra features. Those who like to make trades and transactions on the go may prefer mobile wallets. Web-based wallets store information on the cloud and are ideal in case there is a malfunctioning in a computer or mobile device. Those who like extra security may prefer to print out codes for their currency and store them in a physical wallet.

There is no need to be overly concerned about the security of cryptocurrency as long as your coins are stored safely. Keeping your virtual money on exchanges involves significant risk, and therefore, the best option is to select a wallet the suits your lifestyle and your investing preferences. After spending some time researching digital wallet companies, you can feel confident choosing a wallet that will keep your money safe.  

About the Author:

Adinah Brown is a professional writer who has worked in a wide range of industry settings, including corporate industry, government and non-government organizations. Within many of these positions, Adinah has provided skilled marketing and advertising services and is currently the Content Manager at Leverate.