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Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 03.11.2017 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD, BRENT)

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair has almost reached the target of the correction. We think, today the price may fall towards 1.1600, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation range to the downside, the market may fall to reach 1.1530; if to the upside – continue the correction towards 1.1720 and then resume falling inside the downtrend.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair has reached the downside border of the consolidation channel and right is forming a new one around 1.3086; it is expected to break this level and form a downside continuation pattern. Possibly, today the price may reach 1.3000 and then start another consolidation range and continue falling with the local target at 1.2929.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair is consolidating in the middle of the range. We think, today the price may form another ascending structure to reach 1.0045. After that, the instrument may test 0.9990 from above and then continue growing towards 1.0090.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair is also consolidating in the middle of the range. Possibly, the price may grow to reach 114.50 and then return to 114.00. Later, in our opinion, the market may resume growing inside the uptrend with the target at 115.00 and then start another correction towards 111.24.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair has fallen towards 0.7680; it is still being corrected. Possibly, today the price may grow to reach 0.7735. After that, the instrument may move downwards with the target at 0.7615.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair is still consolidating around 58.10. We think, today the price may fall towards the downside border of the range, break it, and then reach 57.10. And that’s just a half of the descending wave. The local target is at 56.60.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has reached the target of the correction and right now is falling towards 1274. Possibly, today the price may continue consolidating. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation channel to the downside, the market may continue falling to reach 1250; if to the upside – continue the correction towards 1290 and then resume falling to reach 1250.

BRENT

Brent is consolidating in the center of the range. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may grow to reach 62.50; if to the downside – continue the correction with the target at 58.25.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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03 Nov

EURUSD: price consolidating as NFP looms

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Thursday the 2^nd of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. Euro bulls got some unexpected support as sellers shorted the pound following the Bank of England’s meeting. The pound shed 163 pips against the euro to reach 0.8939, while dropping 227 pips against the US dollar to hit 1.3043. The euro rose against the dollar to 1.1687, returning to around 1.1658 by the end of the day.

Neither the details of the planned tax reform legislation nor Janet Yellen’s successor being named brought much optimism to the market. President Trump has nominated Jerome Powell to head the Federal Reserve. Markets were expecting this so the reaction was muted.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

12:30 UK: Markit services PMI (Oct) – (forecast: 53.3%, previous: 53.6%).
15:30 Canada: net change in unemployment (Oct), unemployment rate (Oct), trade balance (Sep).
15:30 USA: trade balance (Sep), unemployment rate (Oct), nonfarm payrolls (Oct), average hourly earnings (Oct), workforce participation rate (Oct).
17:45 USA: Markit services PMI (Oct).
18:00 USA: ISM non-manufacturing index (Oct), factory orders (Sep).
19:15 USA: FOMC member Kashkari’s speech.
20:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Fig 1. EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

Thursday was volatile for the single currency. Buyers met with resistance at the 67^th degree during the US session. The price is still trading inside an upwards channel with a 72-pip range.

We can expect similar volatility in today’s US session once the NFP report comes out. I don’t make forecasts on payrolls day, so there’s no projection on the graph.

The price is currently trading 23 pips away from the LB balance line. I think that the price will have returned to this line by the time the NFP report comes out. The euro has closed below 1.1600 for the last few days. The head and shoulders model on the daily timeframe and the targets relating to it are still in play.

Source: “EURUSD: price consolidating as NFP looms“

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02 Nov

Why we shouldn’t compare bitcoin to companies

By Veselin Petkov, Alpari

When the price of bitcoin is rising or reaches new heights, we often see expert commentators in the media comparing bitcoin’s market cap to that of some company. For example, we’ve recently seen headlines such as: “Bitcoin overtakes Goldman Sachs in terms of market cap”, “Bitcoin’s market cap has surpassed that of sports clothing manufacturer Nike”, and so on.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at 6,450 USD, with a market cap of 107.22bn USD according to coinmarketcap.com. People are already debating which companies the crypto market’s flagship currency will overtake next in terms of market cap should the bitcoin continue its growth.

In my opinion, this is a spurious comparison to make. We shouldn’t be comparing bitcoin with banks and other companies. The idea behind bitcoin was to create a transnational, decentralised global currency. The developers behind bitcoin launched this project with the aim of creating an alternative to fiat currencies, which can simply be printed by central banks without limits. So, bitcoin’s market cap should actually be compared to, for example, M1, M2, and M3 money supplies in the US, or with the money supply in the Eurozone, China, and so on. What I mean to say is that bitcoin should be compared to money rather than companies. Bitcoin is not a company and was never intended to be, so comparing the market cap of bitcoin to that of various companies is inappropriate and uninformative.

Source: Why we shouldn’t compare bitcoin to companies

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02 Nov

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 02.11.2017 (EUR/USD, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

At the H4 chart, the EUR/USD is still forming the descending channel with Shooting Star, Doji, Harami, and Engulfing reversal patterns at support and resistance levels to define its borders. Alter the price finishes the correction, its next downside target will be at 1.1588.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

At the H4 chart, the instrument is forming a new descending channel with Shooting Star, Engulfing, Doji, and Hammer reversal patterns to define it borders. Right now, the instrument is being corrected towards the resistance level at 1281.45. If later the instrument rebounds from this level, it may reach the support level at 1265.70.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

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02 Nov

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 02.11.2017 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair is still consolidating. Right now, the price is forming the ascending structure towards 1.1680, which may later be followed by the descending one to reach 1.1627. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation range to the downside, the market may fall to reach 1.1530; if to the upside – continue the correction towards 1.1722.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating at the top of the ascending structure. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation channel to the downside, the market may continue falling to reach 1.2929; if to the upside – continue the correction towards 1.3440.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair is also consolidating at the top of the ascending wave. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation range to the upside, the market may grow to reach 1.0088; if to the downside – continue the correction towards 0.9886.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair has formed the Expanding Triangle pattern and right now is consolidating in the middle of it. Possibly, today the price may continue growing to reach the pattern’s upside border at 114.45. Later, in our opinion, the market may fall towards 114.00 and then resume growing inside the uptrend with the target at 115.00.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is being corrected; it has already reached the target of the third correctional structure. Possibly, today the price may fall towards 0.7676 (at least) and then grow to reach 0.7735. After that, the instrument may move downwards with the target at 0.7615.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair is trading inside the ascending channel. We think, today the price may fall to reach 57.60 and then start another consolidation range. Later, in our opinion, the market may break it to the downside and reach the local target at 56.60.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is being corrected towards the target at 1284. Possibly, today the price may form the fourth correctional structure and reach 1270. Later, in our opinion, the market may form the fifth one to reach the above-mentioned target. After that, the instrument may continue falling with the target at 1250.

BRENT

Brent has finished the descending impulse towards 60.25 and right now is growing to reach 61.00, thus forming another consolidation range. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may grow to reach 62.50; if to the downside – start another correction with the target at 58.50.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

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02 Nov

EURUSD: head and shoulders model may not work out

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Wednesday the 1^st of November, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down at 1.1618. The 45^th degree at 1.1607 prevented the euro from falling any further. Sellers were unable to break this level even after some strong US data and the conclusion of the FOMC’s meeting.

The Fed’s November meeting passed over us rather peacefully as there was no publication of economic projections, nor was there a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

The key rate was maintained at 1 – 1.25%. This decision was in line with expectations, so the reaction was muted. Market participants are expecting a rate hike at the next meeting in December.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

09:45 Switzerland: SECO consumer climate (Q3). This news is just for show and can be ignored.
11:15 Switzerland: real retail sales (Sep).
11:50 France: Markit manufacturing PMI (Oct).
11:55 Germany: Markit manufacturing PMI (Oct), unemployment rate (Oct), unemployment change (Oct).
12:00 Eurozone: Markit manufacturing PMI (Oct).
12:30 UK: PMI construction (Oct).
15:00 UK: BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase facility, monetary policy summary, BoE quarterly inflation report.
15:30 UK: BoE’s governor Carney speech.
15:30 USA: initial jobless claims (27 Oct).
19:20 USA: Fed’s William Dudley speech.

Fig 1. EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

On Wednesday, trading on the euro closed down, although the price didn’t reach the target in my forecast (1.1580). The euro stopped falling at around the 45^th degree. Sellers got some excellent momentum from 1.1657 and broke through 1.1625, which they had been chipping away at for 40 hours, before finally coming to a stop. A series of constant 30-pip price jumps significantly weakened their position. They were unable to nurture the new bearish impulse despite the strong ADP data and the positive conclusion to the Fed meeting.

Today in Asia, the rate has jumped 59 pips. The reasons for such a rapid increase are beyond me. All I know is that this morning’s growth to above 1.1600 has cast doubt on the continuation of the head and shoulders (H&S) model. If Thursday’s candlestick closes above 1.1600, we can forget about the H&S model.

Due to such uncertainty, I don’t have any predictions for today. President Trump may have caused this uncertainty. On Wednesday, it was reported by the Wall Street Journal that according to an anonymous source from the White House, Trump is inclined to nominate Jerome Powell to the post of Fed Chair. He will announce his decision at 19:00 GMT. Trump has tweeted that everyone will be impressed by his choice. A reform bill is also set to be published.

Before Trump, trader attention will be focused on the Bank of England’s MPC meeting. The repo rate is expected to be raised by 25 base points to 0.5%. If this doesn’t happen, the pound could enter freefall and drop 150 – 200 pips. The intensity of the drop will depend on the distribution of votes among the MPC. If the regulator decides on a rate hike, the pound will move up towards the 1.3355 area. The euro will follow suit.

Source: “EURUSD: head and shoulders model may not work out“

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01 Nov

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 01.11.2017 (GBP/USD, EUR/JPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the current correction is taking too much time. The short-term target of the correction is the retracement of 61.8% at 1.3416. In order to continue the downtrend, the price has to break the local low at 1.3026. In this case, the closest targets will be inside the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1.2877 and 1.2786 respectively.

At the H1 chart, the pair continues moving upwards. The targets of the current ascending impulse are inside the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1.3360 and 1.3409 respectively. After finishing the correction, the instrument may start a new descending impulse.

EUR JPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the mid-term correction to the downside continues. We may assume that after breaking the high at 134.50, the EUR/JPY pair may grow towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 135.65 and 136.38 respectively. However, the descending correction may yet continue to reach the retracements of 61.8% and 76.0% at 131.28 and 130.57 respectively.

At the H1 chart, after finishing the descending impulse, the price has been corrected to the upside by 38.2%. The next targets of this ascending correction may be the retracement of 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% at 132.96, 133.33, and 133.76 respectively.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

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01 Nov

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 01.11.2017 (AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7665; the instrument is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. We should expect the price to test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7680 and continue moving downwards to reach 0.7575. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.7750. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7840. After breaking the downside border of the “Triangle” pattern, the price may continue falling faster.

NZD USD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.6907; the instrument is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. We should expect the price to test the downside border of the cloud at 0.6915 and then continue moving downwards to reach 0.6730. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.6990. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7110.

USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2898; the instrument is still moving above Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue growing. We should expect the price to test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.2855 and then continue moving upwards to reach 1.3030. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.2670. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2580. After breaking the upside border of the “Triangle” pattern, the price may continue growing faster.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

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01 Nov

EURUSD: euro trading down in Asia

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Tuesday the 31^st of October, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly down. The price spent the day trading within a 36-pip range from 1.1625 to 1.1661. Euro bulls tried three times to induce a rebound from 1.1625 levels, but the price was dragged back to the balance line as the dollar was trading up against almost all the majors.

I still can’t understand what sellers were expecting given that the euro/pound cross fell and US bond yields rose. The Chicago PMI and the Conference Board consumer confidence index came out better than expected. This has created favourable conditions for a breakout of 1.1600.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

12:30 UK: Markit manufacturing PMI (Oct). This indicator has a strong influence on the pound when it deviates from expectations. It’s expected to come out at 55.9 against 55.9 the previous month.
13:00 UK: MPC member Cunliffe and Woods speeches.
15:15 USA: ADP employment change (Oct). This is expected to come out at 191,000 against 135,000 in September.
16:45 USA: Markit manufacturing PMI (Oct).
17:00 USA: ISM manufacturing PMI (Oct), construction spending (Sep).
17:30 USA: EIA crude oil stocks change (27 Oct).
21:00 USA: Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. A rate hike is not expected.
23:15 Canada: BoC governor Poloz’s speech.

Fig 1. EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

Due to low seller activity, the euro’s upwards correction continues. The 67^th degree is acting as a resistance for buyers. During trading in Asia, the price, having broken through 1.1638, exited the upwards channel. At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1626 (-35). This marks a 0.14% drop against the dollar.

Traders are proceeding with caution ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in the US. However, there’s no need to worry about this meeting. It’s not one that will be accompanied by a summary of macroeconomic projections or a press conference with Janet Yellen.

In my forecast, I’m considering a drop for the euro to the 67^th degree at 1.1580. This is an intermediate target. The main target is around the 1.1330 mark. We need to wait and see how quickly the price will make it to this level and what sort of trading volume sellers will witness.

Source: “EURUSD: euro trading down in Asia“

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31 Oct

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By Elliott Wave International

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