InvestMacro

By George Prior

Bitcoin’s rally heralds the dawn of the financial technology era, but it remains “a major gamble”, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial services organizations.

Nigel Green, founder and chief executive of deVere Group’s comment comes as the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value reached a new lifetime high of $15,058 Thursday, appreciating by more than $3,000 in 36 hours.

Mr Green comments: “Bitcoin’s impressive current run continues, leaping over one psychological hurdle after another, and outstripping most previous expectations.  It has caught many experts and commentators off guard.

“The meteoric rise of Bitcoin underscores the demand and the need for digital currencies in today’s world. Bitcoin and others have identified this and are meeting those demands and needs and filling the void.”

He continues: “Whilst many Bitcoin investors are popping the champagne corks at the moment, some caution needs to be exercised too.

“Bitcoin remains a major gamble as it is very much an ‘unchartered waters’ asset – we’ve simply not experienced this before. Also, an asset that goes almost vertically up should typically raise alarm bells for investors.  In addition, many would argue that there’s limited underlying economic value.”

He adds: “But that said, the U.S. dollar is also a gamble.  America has 23 trillion in debts, so some would argue that its currency is also a risk.”

Mr Green goes on to say: “Of course, no-one knows for sure the short, medium, long-term future for Bitcoin.  But what we do know is that the blockchain technology that underpins it is revolutionary and is already changing the way the world handles money.

“This week’s rally has demonstrated without doubt that the already considerable marketplace for cryptocurrencies is growing and that it is likely to only grow at a faster pace in coming years.  As such, Jamie Dimon’s [CEO of JP Morgan] steadfast dismissal of Bitcoin is totally wrong.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “Today’s world needs cryptocurrencies. One or two of the existing ones will succeed, whether it’s Bitcoin or not remains to be seen. But the dawn of the financial technology era has arrived.”

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

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AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7540; the instrument is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that may continue falling. We should expect the price to test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7560 and then continue moving downwards to reach 0.7470. However, the scenario that Implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.7620. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7720. After rebounding from the downside border of the Triangle pattern, the price may resume falling.

NZD USD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.6849; the instrument is still moving inside the Triangle pattern. We should expect the price to test the broken border of the cloud at 0.6860 and then continue moving downwards to reach 0.6770. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.6825. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6970. After breaking the downside border of the Triangle pattern and fixing above 0.6800, the price may resume falling.

USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2810; the instrument is still moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it is moving sideways. We should expect the price to test the downside border of the cloud at 1.2739 and then continue moving upwards to reach 1.2900. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.2770. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2660.

RoboForex Analytical Department

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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EUR USD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

After reaching the support level, the EUR/USD pair has formed several Hammer and Inverted Hammer patterns. These reversal patterns are very unlikely to make the price reverse. However, they may result is a slight correction, which may later be followed by a further decline towards the next support level at 1.1731.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has formed a slight correction with several Inverted Hammer and Harami patterns. These patterns indicate that the correction is over and the instrument may start moving to the upside to update its closest highs.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

By OilPrice.com

“We will not let go of our current approach until we reach a balanced market,” Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday at a news conference in Riyadh.

OPEC ended months of speculation last week when it decided to extend its production cuts through the end of 2018, easing concerns that the limits would be lifted before the oil market was ready. But while it put some uncertainty to rest, the next question is what OPEC does when the oil market becomes “balanced”? What is the exit strategy?

There isn’t one at the moment, and we can assume OPEC doesn’t know what comes next. But we do know that the group has one key metric in mind: inventories. The target is to bring global oil inventories back down to the five-year average.

Oil inventories exploded between 2014 and 2017, hitting record levels that left the world awash in oil. That metric, arguably more than any other, exemplified the glut of supply that led to the crash of prices.

It has been a stubborn thing, getting those inventories back down to average levels. A wave of shale bankruptcies didn’t do it, the vanishing rig count didn’t do it either. That led OPEC and a handful of non-OPEC countries led by Russia to limit their production. But even that deal didn’t seem to be doing the trick at the start of 2017, as inventories remained stuck at elevated levels. The euphoria that followed the announcement of the initial deal gave way to a renewed sense of gloom, which pushed WTI back down into the low-$40s by mid-2017.

However, by the end of summer, the inventories finally started to move. And the declines accelerated in recent months, draining stocks at a rapid clip. Total crude and refined product inventories in OECD countries (the most visible and transparent metric used) has dropped to only 140 million barrels above the five-year average as of October, cutting the surplus from the start of 2017 by more than half.

The big question is when that surplus shrinks to zero. Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih warned that winter months tend to bring a dip in demand, which could meant the drawdowns slow for the rest of this year and in the first quarter of 2018. As such, the real progress won’t begin until probably the second quarter.

Aiding in OPEC’s effort is that the definition of “average” is constantly changing. With each passing day, the previous five years is increasingly made up of periods of time in which the oil market was in a glut. So, the “average” level for oil inventories today is a lot higher than it was three years ago. That means OPEC could achieve its objective with a lot more ease than if the target level was a fixed figure.

Demand is growing strongly, which will help soak up excess barrels as we head into next year. The supply picture is mixed, however. There is rising production in the U.S., Canada, Brazil and some other non-OPEC countries. On the other hand, OPEC countries will keep their output in check, and the inclusion of Nigeria and Libya under the cap will keep supply off the market. And Venezuela’s production will continue to fall.

Although estimates vary, the IEA sees the supply surplus returning—in the first quarter of 2018, the energy agency sees a glut of 0.6 mb/d. In other words, inventories could swell for a period of time, although OPEC is not as pessimistic. But both agree that by mid-year, the drawdowns will really pick up pace, and the objective of “balancing” the market will draw near.

That makes the review period for OPEC’s production limits in June very important. At that point, OPEC and non-OPEC countries will have to come up with an exit strategy. “The outlook for when we will hit the balanced market will be clearer in June, and we will start thinking of what we will do in 2019,” al-Falih told reporters on Monday. “The intent is not overnight to open the taps and flood the market.”

Link to original article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-One-Indicator-OPEC-Must-Watch.html

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

Article By RoboForex.com

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair is being corrected to the downside and has already reached the retracement of 38.2%. The closest downside targets are the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 1.3305 and 1.3249 respectively. However, if we’re talking about a further growth, the targets will be near the short- and long-term highs at 1.3549 and 1.3657 respectively.

At the H1 chart, the situation is similar and confirms the scenario described above. The main trend is bearish.

EUR JPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the EUR/JPY pair is getting closer to the retracement of 76.0% at 132.36. Later, the price may rebound from this level and start a new correction to the upside with the targets at the retracements of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% at 132.87, 133.13, 133.36, 133.60, and 133.88 respectively.

At the H1 chart, the situation is the same and confirms the scenario described above.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7576; the instrument is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that may continue falling. We should expect the price to test the broken border of the loud at 0.7585 and then continue moving downwards to reach 0.7510. However, the scenario that Implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.7620. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7640. After breaking the downside border of the Triangle pattern and fixing below 0.7540, the price may resume falling.

NZD USD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.6901; the instrument is still moving above Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue growing. We should expect the price to test the upside border of the cloud at 0.6890 and then continue moving upwards to reach 0.6930. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.6825. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6650. After breaking the upside border of the Triangle pattern and fixing above 0.6950, the price may continue growing quickly.

USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2700; the instrument is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. We should expect the price to test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.2730 and then continue moving downwards to reach 1.2565. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 1.2805. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2910.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

By Elliott Wave International

One day before the jobs numbers went viral, Elliott wave analysis already called for a USDCAD rally

By Elliott Wave International

Friday December 1 was a lucky break for loonie bulls. That day, the government agency Statistics Canada revealed the nation’s economy added 79,500 new jobs in November, “blowing past” the 10,000 that economists expected. As one major news source described it:

“Canadian dollar posted its biggest gain in nearly three months against its U.S. counterpart on Friday after a stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data fueled expectations for further Bank of Canada interest rate hikes early next year…”

“The labor miracle in Canada continues.” (Dec. 1 Reuters)

Absolutely, a jobs number that’s EIGHT times bigger than expected is a significant event for economists; some would even call it “miraculous.” But here’s the part we have trouble with: The spike was NOT the cause for the Canadian dollar’s surge.

The reason we know that is because Elliott wave analysis foresaw a loonie rally before the jobs “miracle” was released.

On November 30, a day before the surprise numbers went viral and stirred up a media frenzy, our Currency Pro Service editor Jim Martens set the stage for a decline in the USDCAD: (a falling U.S. dollar/rising Canadian dollar)

Here is Jim’s analysis from his November 30 Currency Pro Service intraday update:

November 30 2:30 PM:

“USDCAD pushed to a new high on the day. Despite the new high the rally from 1.2672 might still represent wave b of a larger flat correction. A double top with 1.2915 would best serve the flat scenario. It would lead to a wave c decline that reaches below 1.2666. — Jim”

Jim also referenced the upcoming jobs data report:

“Unemployment Claims is the next high impact economic release due out in the U.S. at 8:30 AM ET [Friday morning].”

Obviously, Jim had no way of knowing that the jobs claims would outperform expectations eight-fold. His analysis wasn’t based on the “fundamental” data, but rather on the Elliott wave pattern unfolding on the USDCAD’s price chart.

The next chart shows you how the currency pair followed its Elliott wave script to a T, with the greenback plunging and the loonie rising.

What makes forecasts like these possible is the fact that Elliott wave analysis tracks and forecasts market psychology. It’s the collective psychology of market players that create trends.

The loonie was poised to strengthen against the dollar regardless of what the labor report had said; there didn’t have to be any CAD-bullish news, period.