InvestMacro

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here are this week’s links to the latest Commitment of Traders data changes that were released on Friday.

• Forex Speculators raised US Dollar Index bets higher. AUD, GBP bets fall sharply
• WTI Crude Oil Speculators pull back on bullish bets again
• 10-Year Note Speculators slightly edged their bearish bets higher
• Bitcoin Speculators raised their bearish net positions higher
• Gold Speculators added to their bearish bets, now bearish for 6 straight weeks
• S&P500 Mini Speculators advanced their bullish net positions
• VIX Speculators edged their bearish net positions lower for 2nd week
• Silver Speculators pulled back on their bearish bets for 2nd week
• Copper Speculators cut back on their bearish net positions

Forex Speculators raised US Dollar Index bets higher. AUD, GBP bets fall sharply

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large currency speculators continued to boost their bullish net positions in favor the US Dollar Index futures markets this week. See full article

WTI Crude Oil Speculators pull back on bullish bets again this week

The non-commercial contracts of WTI crude futures totaled a net position of 530,366 contracts, according to data from this week. This was a slide of -13,479 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article

Gold Speculators added to their bearish bets, now bearish for 6 straight weeks

The large speculator contracts of gold futures totaled a net position of -10,844 contracts. This was a weekly decline of -3,254 contracts from the previous week. See full article

10-Year Note Speculators slightly edged their bearish bets higher

The large speculator contracts of 10-year treasury note futures totaled a net position of -684,712 contracts. This was a weekly reduction of -2,028 contracts from the previous week. See full article

S&P500 Mini Speculators advanced their bullish net positions

The large speculator contracts of S&P500 Mini futures totaled a net position of 149,962 contracts. This was a rise of 27,742 contracts from the reported data of the previous week. See full article

Silver Speculators pulled back on their bearish bets for 2nd week

The non-commercial contracts of silver futures totaled a net position of -25,516 contracts, according to data from this week. This was a weekly gain of 1,887 contracts from the previous totals. See full article

Copper Speculators cut back on their bearish net positions

The large speculator contracts of copper futures totaled a net position of -191 contracts. This was a weekly boost of 8,703 contracts from the data of the previous week. See full article

Article by CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

The Commitment of Traders report data is published in raw form every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows the futures positions of market participants as of the previous Tuesday (data is reported 3 days behind).

To learn more about this data please visit the CFTC website at http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm

Sept. 22, 2018 – By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large currency speculators continued to boost their bullish net positions in favor the US Dollar Index futures markets this week.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 37,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 18th. This was a weekly lift of 2,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,495 net contracts.

Speculative positions continue to plow forward with bullish bets rising for a second straight week and for the twenty-first time out of the past twenty-two weeks. The current standing is now at the highest bullish position since May 2nd of 2017 when the net position totaled +40,020 contracts.

Aggregate US Dollar Position pushes higher this week

US Dollar net speculator positions rose to $22.98 billion this week

An aggregate measure of the US dollar position – the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc – showed that currency speculators raised their bets to a US dollar net position of $22.98 billion as of Tuesday September 18th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly gain of $3.82 billion from the $19.16 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation.

This aggregate speculative position is back above the +$22 billion dollar level for the first time in three weeks. The overall standing has now been in bullish territory for the past fourteen weeks.

Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the individual currency contracts data, we saw four substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category.

Australian dollar bets dropped by the most in thirteen weeks to the most bearish level since March of 2015. The AUD sentiment has fallen for two straight weeks and has now been in bearish territory for 25 consecutive weeks.

British pound sterling positions fell further bearish this week and by the largest weekly amount in thirteen weeks. The current standing for the pound speculator sentiment is at the most bearish level since May of 2017.

Swiss franc speculator positions jumped this week by over +16,000 contracts and improved for the fourth straight week. The current standing is at the least bearish level of the past twenty weeks.

Mexican peso spec positions rose sharply by over +25,000 contracts this week and gained for a second straight week. The overall bullish position is now at the highest level since May 15th when the net position totaled +52,778 contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improvement were the US Dollar Index (2,961 weekly change in contracts), the Swiss franc (16,912 contracts) and the Mexican peso (25,977 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-9,504 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-18,079 contracts), Japanese yen (-9,869 contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,169 contracts), Australian dollar (-23,691 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-9,342 contracts).

See the table and individual currency charts below.

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

Article By RoboForex.com

Bitcoin

On H4, Bitcoin correctional phase is extending. The correctional trend reached 38.2% Fibo and which the move to reach 50.0% (6755.20), 61.8% (6908.60), and 76.0% (7090.00), while the support is at the low, $6,102.20.

On H1, BTC stopped downtrending and, after converging, is now forming an uptrend. After breaking out the local low, the price is going towards the post correctional extension range between 138.20 and 161.80% Fibo, or 6,767.00-6,876.50.

Ether

On H4, Ether is continuing its correctional uptrend after convergence. The crypto is heading towards 23.6% (248.70), 38.2% (299.70), and 50.0% (340.70), while the support is at the low ($166.85).

On H1, Ether is trying to reach 227.35. Once having reached it, the price may head further to the post correctional extension range at between 138.20% and 161.80% Fibo, or $241.00-$248.65.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD

The euro has broken out the consolidation range against the dollar and is now rising to the target at 1.1794. It may first fall to 1.1765, then rise to 1.1794, but then again fall to 1.1740.

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD is still trading higher. The pair is likely to reach 1.3316, then fall down to 1.3228, and then, after breaking it out, may go further down to 1.3025, which is going to be the first target.

USDCHF

The USDCHF went below the consolidation range and is now downtrending at around 0.9570. Today, it may correct upwards to 0.9596, and then fall till 0.9570. After that, the pair is likely to rise, reaching 0.9666, which is going to be the first target.

USDJPY

The pair is being pushed upwards; It may first fall to 112.46, and then rise to 112.90. After that, it may go back to 111.55 again, which is going to be the first target.

AUDUSD

The USDAUD is being pushed upwards, and may soon reach 0.7320, but then is likely to fall till 0.7230, which is going to be the first target.

USDRUB

The pair is being pushed down, with the local target at 66.00. Today, it may correct upwards to 66.96, then is likely to fall till 66.00, go back to 68.00, and, finally, go down to 65.65, which is going to be the first target.

GOLD

The yellow metal is no longer consolidating, and might reach $1,208. However, a more likely scenario is going down and reaching $1,186.20.

BRENT

Brent crude is trading within a consolidation near $79.15. Today, the price is inside a rising pattern near the upper range boundary. If it continues rising, the price may go up towards $80.50, which is a local target. In case it breaks out the range and goes down, the price may correct to 78.00, but then again is likely to take $80.50.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.16720
• Open: 1.17764
• % chg. over the last day: +0.88
• Day’s range: 1.17726 – 1.18027
• 52 wk range: 1.0571 – 1.2557

Yesterday, the US dollar weakened against the basket of major currencies. The escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China slowed, which led to an increase in demand for risky assets. The EUR/USD quotations increased by more than 100 points. At the moment, the trading instrument is consolidating in the range of 1.17700-1.18000. The EUR/USD currency pair is tending to growth. Positions must be opened from the key levels.

• – A number of indices on economic activity in Germany and the Eurozone at 10:30 (GMT+3:00) and 11:00 (GMT+3:00).

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.17700, 1.17400, 1.17100
• Resistance levels: 1.18000, 1.18500

If the price fixes above the round level of 1.18000, further growth of the EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.18400-1.18600.

An alternative may be the reduction of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.17400-1.17100.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31061
• Open: 1.32500
• % chg. over the last day: +0.96
• Day’s range: 1.32121 – 1.32764
• 52 wk range: 1.2361 – 1.4345

Yesterday aggressive purchases of GBP/USD were observed. The growth of quotations exceeded 140 points. Additional support for the pound was provided by the positive statistics on retail sales in the UK. At the moment, the GBP/USD quotations went down. The key trading range is 1.32100-1.32750. The positions must be opened from these marks.

Today, the news feed on the UK economy is calm.

The price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA, which signals the power of buyers.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

• Support levels: 1.32100, 1.31700, 1.31250
• Resistance levels: 1.32750, 1.33000

If the price falls below the local support of 1.32100, further correction of the GBP/USD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 1.31700-1.31500.

An alternative may be the GBP/USD growth to the offer zone of 1.32750-1.33000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.29160
• Open: 1.29042
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04
• Day’s range: 1.28969 – 1.29140
• 52 wk range: 1.2059 – 1.3795

The USD/CAD quotes are consolidating after a significant decline in the past two weeks. A unidirectional trend is not observed. Local support and resistance levels are: 1.28900 and 1.29300, respectively. The trading instrument is tending to reduce. Investors expect important statistical data from Canada.

At 15:30 (GMT+3:00) reports on inflation and retail sales in Canada will be published.

The price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA, which indicates the power of sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.28900, 1.28500
• Resistance levels: 1.29300, 1.29800, 1.30150

If the price fixes below the local support of 1.28900, the USD/CAD quotes are expected to fall further. The movement is tending to 1.28500-1.28300.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the level of 1.29300, you need to look for entry points to the market to open long positions. The target level of movement is tending to 1.29700-1.29900.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 112.254
• Open: 112.440
• % chg. over the last day: +0.19
• Day’s range: 112.429 – 112.874
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

The bullish sentiment is prevailing on the USD/JPY currency pair. At the moment, the quotes are consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 112.550 and 112.850. The trading instrument is tending to growth. We recommend paying attention to the yield of US government bonds. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The news feed on the economy of Japan is calm today.

The price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA, which signals the power of buyers.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone and above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy USD/JPY.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

• Support levels: 112.550, 112.400, 112.100
• Resistance levels: 112.850, 113.000

If the price fixes above the resistance level of 112.850, further growth of the USD/JPY quotes is expected. The movement ie tending to 113.000-113.300.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below 112.550, we recommend you to look for entry points to the market to open short positions. The target movement level is 112.300-112.100.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar fell against the basket of major currencies but strengthened relative to the Japanese yen. The US dollar index (#DX) updated monthly lows and closed in the negative zone (-0.67%). Yesterday, the ambiguous economic statistics were published in the US. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index counted to 22.9 in September and was above the forecasted value of 17.0. However, existing home sales declined to 5.34M in August instead of 5.35M.

The trade conflict between the United States and China has receded into the background. The demand for risky assets has grown significantly. At the moment, investors’ attention is focused on the summit of the European Union leaders, which takes place in Austria. The main subject of discussion is the conclusion of a deal between the UK and the EU after Brexit.

The “black gold” prices have become stable. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $70.50 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.81%), #DIA (+0.99%), #QQQ (+1.11%).

At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 3.08-3.09%.

– The index of economic activity in the German manufacturing sector at 10:30 (GMT+3:00);
– Core retail sales in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

By Amram Margalit – Leverate

The rising number of money laundering cases involving European banks, such as Danske Bank and ING Group pushed the European Union to tighten its rules to combat these illegal transactions.

Brussels, for example, cites that there is a need for greater cross-border coordination to monitor suspects of terrorism and prevent such cases from happening again.

Europe Struggles to Fight Money Laundering

The EU has been the target of criticism from regulators due to consecutive dirty money scandals. Critics accuse the union of failing to do more to stop money laundering. These scandals involve some financial institutions across Europe, such as ABLV Bank in Latvia, Pilatus Bank in Malta, Danske Bank in Denmark, and ING Groep in the Netherlands.

EU financial supervisors explain in a paper that these incidents reveal the shortcomings of different national and EU authorities working together to prevent the illegal activity.

Findings from the European Central Bank (ECB), European Banking Authority (EBA), and the European Commission reveal:

• EU has a lack of legal clarity on the way financial sectors should work together
• EU has unclear instructions for data sharing between EU countries
• EU lacks resources to enforce the rules strictly

Money laundering typically occurs in countries with weak anti-money laundering policies that minimize the chances of detection. Criminals transfer their illicit funds to established financial institutions and conceal the true source using complex transactions.

Tougher Anti-Money Laundering Rules

Regulators have suggested several ways to combat the problems with money laundering. One of them is to establish a memorandum of understanding on data sharing among ECB financial supervisors.

Europe penalizes money laundering offenders by imposing a higher fine. ING Group, in particular, agreed to pay €775 million ($900 million) in settlement fee after its failure to prevent money laundering for years. This backlash led the Dutch banking firm to analyze every transaction and customer carefully.

The European Council adopts a directive that addresses money laundering cases to strengthen its rules further. Part of the action plan is the amendment of Directive 2015/849, launched following a series of attacks in Europe in 2016.

Amendments to Directive 2015/849 include:

• Broader access to information on beneficial ownership
• Addressing risks related to virtual currencies and prepaid cards
• Close collaboration between financial intelligence units
• Better monitoring of transactions with high-risk third countries

Gaps in Supervisory Framework

The EBA admits that it lacks the power and staff to fight dirty money at financial institutions in the European Union states. EU officials recommend adding 10 money laundering officials to EBA’s current staff of two.

The European Commission proposes altering banking supervision to counter the series of dirty money scandals. The Commission, however, has yet to establish a single agency to handle financial crimes.

Additionally, the government body suggests harmonizing existing rules to investigate and punish money laundering. Currently, member states have the discretion to do so, which creates gaps in the bloc’s legal framework.

International guidelines state that negative publicity around the imposition of fines could effectively combat money laundering. European states, however, do not have an obligation to name banks accused of failing to stop financial crime.

Luxembourg, for instance, imposed a €3.8 million fine on an Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) branch in the Grand Duchy. But Luxembourg refuses to drop the name.

Money laundering is touted as one of the most wide-scale financial crimes these days. The fines, however steep, appear not to hamper the illegal activity. It explains why EU authorities are not only proposing amendments to regulations on anti-money laundering to tackle weaknesses in financial institutions, but they are also looking into giving authorities broader power to crack down on erring banks, including imposing sanctions.

About the Author:

Amram Margalit is a professional writer who has worked in a wide range of settings, including technology companies, nonprofits, and the entertainment industry. Within these positions, Amram has provided quality content and advertising services and is currently the Content Manager at Leverate.

Article By RoboForex.com

The EUR/USD is rising, but has not yet gone above yesterday’s highs. The pair is currently trading at 1.1703, with the major driver being China’s response in the trade war: the government is ready to impose customs duties on the US on Sep 24. At the same time, the market tensions are somewhat lower, as both the US and China’s customs duties are going to be lower than expected.

The US housing starts published yesterday showed the indicator went abruptly up in Aug, rising by 9.20% to 1.28M, against 1.24M expected. This is good for the economy, as it means people are ready to spend their money on houses. Meanwhile, the building permits came a bit short of expectations: 1.28M against 1.31M.

Today, more interesting data are coming from the US. For instance, jobless claims are scheduled for today, with the expected value at 201k and the previous at 204k. Another important report is the Philadelphia PMI, where a rise from 11.90 to 17.50 is expected. There will be some housing data, too: this time, existing home sales, which are expected to rise. Finally, the leading indicator index in Aug is being released in the end of the day.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

GOLD

On H4, the yellow metal is trading near the resistance and is forming reversal patters, such as harami, engulfing patters, and doji. By analyzing the previous moves, one can assume the gold may start forming a new uptrend after rangebound trading.

NZDUSD

On H4, the pair is rising, making some insignificant pullbacks and forming such reversal patterns as harami and the engulfing pattern. The price has reached the current resistance, and may make another pullback before continuing the ascending trend.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.