Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 327

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 16.11.2018 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is still consolidating; it has finished another ascending structure towards the upside border and right now is trading downwards. Possibly, today the price may fall to reach 1.1260 and then resume growing towards 1.1305. After that, the instrument may continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1155.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has broken 1.2890 downwards; in fact, it is forming the third descending wave with the target at 1.2710. Today, the pair may return to 1.2890 to test it from below and then resume falling to reach the above-mentioned target. The main target of this descending wave is at 1.2655, at least.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still consolidating around 1.0072. Possibly, the pair may choose an alternative scenario and extend this correction towards 1.0018. According to the main scenario, the price may break the range upwards and then resume trading inside the uptrend with the target at 1.0148.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading below 113.57. Today, the pair may continue falling with the first target at 112.94. Later, the market may be corrected return to 113.57 and then resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 111.00.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is consolidating around 0.7272. Possibly, today the price may break the range downwards and resume trading inside the downtrend with the first target at 0.7160.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is trading downwards; it has broken the rising channel and is moving to reach the target at 65.62. Today, the pair may reach this level and then form one more ascending structure towards 66.48. After that, the instrument may continue forming the third descending wave with the target at 63.10.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is forming the fifth structure. Possibly, today the price may reach 1217.75 and then form a new descending wave towards 1190.00. Later, the market may start another growth with the first target at 1220.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent is forming the second ascending impulse with the target at 68.88. Today, the pair may reach this target and then resume falling towards 67.20. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending impulse, the third one, to reach the first target at 69.69.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2018.11.16

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.13067
  • Open: 1.13230
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.12
  • Day’s range: 1.13215 – 1.13679
  • 52 wk range: 1.1299 – 1.2557

EUR keeps slowly recovering. At the moment, the EUR/USD quotes are testing the local resistance 1.13650. The nearest support line is 1.13200. The investors are waiting for the EU inflation report, positions should be opened from the key levels. The currency pair has good prospects for growth.

The Economic News Feed for 2018.11.16:
  • – Customer Price Index (EU) – 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Manufacturing Index (US) – 16:15 (GMT+2:00).
EUR/USD

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price went over 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and above the signal line, which give a strong signal towards the purchase of EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crosses the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.13200, 1.12700, 1.12200
  • Resistance levels: 1.13650, 1.14000, 1.14400

If the price fixes above 1.13650, expect further growth. Potentially towards 1.14000-1.14400.

Alternatively, the price will fix below 1.13200 and you should consider selling EUR/USD. The movement will tend toward 1.12800-1.12600.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.29812
  • Open: 1.27629
  • % chg. over the last day: -1.77
  • Day’s range: 1.27564 – 1.28339
  • 52 wk range: 1.2662 – 1.4378

Political pressure regarding Brexit keeps pushing the pound down. The fall of the GBP/USD quotes went over 200 pounds. The Secretary of UK for Exiting the EU, Dominic Raab, announced his resignation due to inability to approve the current London/Brussels negotiations. GBP/USD is currently being traded between 1.27800-1.28400. You should open the positions from these levels.

No important publications are planned for today.

GBP/USD

The price is below both 50 MA and 200 MA, which indicates the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal towards the sale of GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in near the overbought zone, the %K line begins to cross the %D line, which provides no signals.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.27800, 1.27250, 1.27000
  • Resistance levels: 1.28400, 1.29000, 1.29500

If the price fixes below the current support 1.27800, expect further descend of the quotes toward 1.27300-1.27000.

Alternatively, the quotes can rise towards the 1.28800-1.29000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.32404
  • Open: 1.31762
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.50
  • Day’s range: 1.31490 – 1.31808
  • 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3387

The USD/CAD quotes started to go down. Yesterday they descended for 65 points. At the moment, it is consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 1.31500 and 1.31800. USD/CAD has potential for further correction.

At 15:30 (GMT+2) expect data regarding the Manufacturing Sales in Canada.

USD/CAD

The indicators show the power fo the sellers: the price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which give a weak signal towards a sale of USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates a bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.31500, 1.31200, 1.30900
  • Resistance levels: 1.31800, 1.32150, 1.32500

If the price fixes below 1.31150, consider selling USD/CAD. The movement will tend toward the round 1.31200-1.31000.

Alternatively, the currency pair can grow to 1.32000-1.32200.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 113.602
  • Open: 113.637
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.04
  • Day’s range: 113.215 – 113.637
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

The USD/JPY quotes are showing an ambiguous technical picture. The trading instrument is in the flat. At the moment the local support and resistance lines are 113.200 and 113.400. Positions should be opened from these levels. Investors are waiting for the additional drivers, for example the economic reports from the US.

There have been no important news from Japan today.

USD/JPY

The price is below 50 MA and 200 MA, which indicates the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is around in the negative zone but below the signal line. It provides a strong signal towards the sale of JPY/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the negative zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates a bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 113.200, 113.000, 112.700
  • Resistance levels: 113.450, 113.650, 114.000

If the price fixes below the support 113.200, expect a further descend of the quotes. The movement will tend toward 113.000-112.700.

Alternatively, quotes can grow towards 113.600-113.800.

Analytics by JustForex

GBP Reached 1.28 USD. The Investors Are Evaluating The Brexit Conundrum

by JustForex

Yesterday the major currencies were showing some active trading. The USD Index (#DX) closed the trading day in the greed (+0.13%). The situation around Brexit remains in the spotlight. The pound is weakened against the American currency by 200 points and reached the 1.28 USD mark. The government of the UK does not approve the current Brexit project. Dominic Raab, the Secretary of State for Exiting from the EU, announced his resignation. He states, that he cannot accept the current conditions of the London and Brussels treaty. Political pressure in Great Britain keeps pushing the pound down.

The USA published a series of ambiguous reports. In October the volume of the retail sales grew by 0.8%, which is higher than the 0.6% expectations. In November the Purchasing Managers’ Index by Philadelphia Federal Reserve dropped from 22.2 to 12.9. The financial market participants are waiting for the EU inflation report.

The quotes on oil started to recover. The WTI futures are testing the mark of 57.30 USD/barrel. We recommend you keep an eye on the U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count – 20:00 (GMT+2:00).

Market Indicators

The major US stock indices closed in the green: #SPY (+1,04%), #DIA (+0,92%), #QQQ (+1,75%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is 3,10-3,11%.

The Economic News Feed for 16.11.2018:
  • – Customer Price Index (EU) – 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Manufacturing Sales (CA) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Industrial Prodaction (US) – 16:15 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

EURUSD: the euro’s upwards trend continues

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari

Previous:

Brexit is dominating the Forex market this week. The pound is under intense scrutiny by market participants. On Thursday, it shed 2.3% against the greenback to reach 1.2735. This drop was caused by reports of UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab’s resignation. Another piece of news that took its toll on the pound was that of the prospect of Prime Minister Theresa May facing a no-confidence vote. The single currency dropped to 1.1271 against the dollar on the back of this report, although euro bulls quickly recovered these losses in Europe and pushed on to a new session high of 1.1362.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 13:00 Eurozone: CPI (Oct).
  • 16:30 Canada: foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Sep), Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Sep).
  • 17:15 US: industrial production (Oct), capacity utilisation (Oct).
  • 21:00 US: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

I had to adjust yesterday’s upwards channel from 1.1222. The pair is now trading above the balance line, which is consequently now acting as a support (1.1314). The LB line is running 22 pips above the lower line of the channel. If our pair drops below 1.1295, we won’t see any subsequent growth. We need to keep an eye out for breaking news on the Italian budget, which could potentially sink our pair.

My forecast shows continued growth within the channel up to 1.1395. If the euro strengthens on the back of a broadly weaker dollar, then the 1.1430 mark will likely be tested. The stochastic is up. We could see a rebound towards the LB.

The Eurozone’s CPI report for October takes centre stage today. If it doesn’t disappoint, we should continue moving upwards without a pullback. Experts expect year-on-year inflation to remain unchanged at 2.2%. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 11:30 (GMT+3). Since it’s not a press conference following an ECB meeting, his comments shouldn’t have much of an effect on markets.

Algorithm technology helps protect investors from battered Bitcoin

By George Prior

A trailblazing actively managed cryptocurrency solution is underscoring its effectiveness by “going short on plummeting Bitcoin.”
This is the message from the chief executive of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations as the biggest digital currency tumbled as much as 12 per cent Wednesday.
deVere Digital Asset Funds, a suite of digital currency solutions for experienced investors, launched in association with Dalma Capital Management Limited, took short positions on Bitcoin at $6,300 and Ethereum at $205 before the price plummeted below $5,600 and $180, respectively, for the first time in 2018.
Nigel Green, deVere Group’s founder and CEO, observes: “The sudden drop in the value of Bitcoin will have caught many investors off guard – even though history teaches us that this is likely to be temporary, with prices rebounding again fairly quickly.
“However, those invested in our actively managed cryptocurrency proposition, which uses a pioneering algorithmic system, will have been shielded against this turbulence, and have actually generated profit from the short signals generated by the system, thereby proving its effectiveness and inherent value to those who seek the upsides of exposure to the digital assets sector but with reduced volatility.”
Speaking earlier this month at the launch of the deVere Digital Asset solution, which is to be  showcased at the Alternative Investment Management (AIM) Summit taking place in Dubai on 26-27 November at the Ritz Carlton hotel, Mr Green explained how it works for the benefit of investors.
“When the price of one asset, for instance Bitcoin or Ethereum, is greater on one platform than on another, the opportunity is identified to generate profit from the difference of price across platforms. These trades, referred to as arbitrage, allow profits to be generated with little or no directional market risk,” he noted.
Zachary Cefaratti, CEO of Dalma Capital comments: “Crypto Asset Markets abound with durable inefficiencies – creating opportunities for hedge funds to generate uncorrelated excess returns through systematic relative value arbitrage, momentum trading and mean-reversion strategies.”
He adds: “Crypto Markets have created opportunities that we have not seen in conventional markets for decades. Arbitrage opportunities abound – the prices of the top 25 crypto assets vary across over 400 liquidity venues. The ability to trade long and short allows profit opportunities regardless of market direction.”
The deVere CEO concludes: “Cryptocurrencies are now being widely accepted as the future of money.  They are the bedrock of the digital global economy and, as such, I am confident the sector will increase 5,000 per cent in the next decade.
“However, as this current Bitcoin sell-off demonstrates, the market remains volatile, but the use of ground-breaking technology can reduce investor exposure to the turbulence.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

 

 

 

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 15.11.2018 (USDCAD, AUDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCAD is still being corrected below the resistance level and forming Harami, Hanging Man, Shooting Star, and Doji reversal patterns. Judging by the previous movements, right now it may be assumed that after completing the correction the instrument may continue its ascending movement.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has reached the resistance level once again and formed Harami and Shooting Star reversal patterns. Judging by the previous movements, it may be assumed that the instrument may finish another correction and then resume moving inside the uptrend.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 15.11.2018 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7275; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7235 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7335. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that Implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.7190. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.7090.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6801; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 0.6775 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6885. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that Implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.6745. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6655.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3228; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 1.3175 and then continue moving upwards to reach 1.3345. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.3110. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2995.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2018.11.15

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.12892
  • Open: 1.13067
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.19
  • Day’s range: 1.13064 – 1.13516
  • 52 wk range: 1.1299 – 1.2557

The EUR/USD quotes keep recovering. At the moment, EUR is testing the key resistance of 1.13500. 1.13100 is the mirror support. Further correction is possible. The financial market participants are expecting important economic stats from the US. Positions should be opened from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 2018.11.15:
  • – Core Retail Sales report (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00).
EUR/USD

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and above the signal line, which give a strong signal towards the purchase of EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the %K line crosses the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.13100, 1.12700, 1.12200
  • Resistance levels: 1.13500, 1.14000

If the price closes above the support 1.13500, expect further correction. The movement will tend toward the round 1.14000.

Alternatively, the price fixes below the mirror support 1.13100, you should consider selling EUR/USD. The movement will tend toward 1.12700-1.12500.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.29710
  • Open: 1.29812
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.08
  • Day’s range: 1.29542 – 1.30299
  • 52 wk range: 1.2662 – 1.4378

GBP/USD is showing a high trading activity and volatility. The Brexit situation is in the spotlight. The Capinet of the UK has approved an aggreement with the US about Brexit. At the moment, the key trading range is 1.29500-1.30250. We recommend you open positions from these levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+2:00) a Core Retail Sales report was published in Great Britain.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed both 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.29500, 1.29000, 1.28400
  • Resistance levels: 1.30250, 1.30850, 1.31400

If the price fixes above 1.30250 expect further growth of GBP/USD. The movement will tend toward 1.30750-1.31000.

Alternatively, the quotes can go down towards the round 1.29000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.32341
  • Open: 1.32404
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.08
  • Day’s range: 1.32173 – 1.32495
  • 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3387

The USD/CAD quotes are in a long flat. The technical picture remains ambiguous. The quotes are testing 1.32150 and 1.32500 as the key support and resistance levels. Positions should be opened from them. We recommend you keep an eye on the US economic reports.

The news feed for Canada is calm for today.

USD/CAD

The indicators do not provide precise signals: the price fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is descending, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line crosses the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.32150, 1.31800, 1.31450
  • Resistance levels: 1.32500, 1.33000

If the price fixes above 1.32150, consider selling USD/CAD. The movement will tend toward the round 1.31800-1.31600.

Alternatively, the currency pair can grow to 1.32750-1.33000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 113.784
  • Open: 113.602
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.22
  • Day’s range: 113.407 – 113.675
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

The USD/JPY quotes started to fall and updated the local minimums. At the moment the quotes are testing the support level of 113.400. 113.700 is now the mirror resistance. A correction is highly possible. There will be some important reports coming from the US, but until then the positions should be opened from the key levels.

There have been no important news from Japan today.

USD/JPY

The price is below 50 MA and 200 MA, which indicates the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is around in the negative zone but above the signal line. It provides a weak signal towards the sale of JPY/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crosses the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 113.400, 113.000, 112.700
  • Resistance levels: 113.700, 114.000, 114.200

If the price fixes below the support 113.400, expect a further descend of the quotes. The movement will tend toward 113.000-112.700.

Alternatively, quotes can grow towards 114.000.

Analytics by JustForex

The USD Index Is Gradually Descending

by JustForex

Yesterday the USD kept losing positions against the basket of other currencies. The US index (#DX) updated the local minmums and ended the trade in the red (-0.49%). The financial market participants keep evaluating the Brexit situation. The Cabinet of the UK approved a preliminary agreement between London and Brusseles. However, now the Premier Minister of Great Britain needs an approval of Parliament, who heavily criticised this version of the agreement.

Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, is certain in the US economic growth and mentioned that the Central Bank plans to gradually raise the key interest rates. At the same time, he is concerned about the growing risks in the world economy. October had seen the creation of 32.8K jobs, which is much higher than the expected 19.9K. The umemployment level remains at 5.0%. The investors are expecting important economic reports from the US and Great Britain.

The prices on oil are stabilizing after a rapid descdent. The WTI futures are testing the mark of 56.20 USD/barrel. We recommend you keep an eye on the crude oil reserves in the US, with a report primed to arrive at 18:00 (GMT +2:00).

Market Indicators

Yesterday the major US stock indices closed in the negative zone: #SPY (-0,68%), #DIA (-0,85%), #QQQ (-0,76%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is 3,12-3,13%.

The Economic News Feed for 15.11.2018:
  • – Core Retail Sales (UK) – 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Retail Sales report (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00).

We recommend you keep an eye on the statements by the FOMC representatives.

by JustForex

EURUSD: euro bulls preparing to break through 1.1350

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari

Previous:

On Wednesday the 14th of November, trading on the euro closed slightly up. Fluctuations on the GBPUSD pair exerted their influence on the single currency throughout the day. The fluctuations on the British pound were the result of contradictory reports on Brexit. The pound and euro closed up against the dollar. The euro closed against the dollar at 1.1323.

After a Cabinet meeting, UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she had won the backing of her ministers for a draft withdrawal agreement with the EU. She believes that this is “the best that could be negotiated”.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 12:30 UK: retail sales (Oct).
  • 13:00 Eurozone: trade balance (Sep).
  • 15:15 Eurozone: ECB’s Cœuré Speech.
  • 16:10 Eurozone: ECB’s Praet speech.
  • 16:30 US: retail sales (Oct), initial jobless claims (9 Nov), NY Empire State manufacturing index (Nov), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (Nov), import price index (Oct).
  • 19:00 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (9 Nov).
  • 19:30 US: Fed’s Powell speech.
  • 21:00 US: FOMC member Bostic speech.
  • 23:00 US: FOMC member Kashkari speech.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

My expectations of a return to the balance line yesterday were proven entirely correct. Growth on the pair continued from the 45th degree. The 67th degree above provided resistance to buyers. The euro has rebounded from it twice, but given that the pair is trading down in Asia and the euro crosses are trading up, I think it worth preparing for a jump to 1.1382. If the bulls manage to gain a bit of momentum here, they should be able to test the 1.1400 mark. I think the bullish impulse will only take them as far as the upper line of the upwards channel.

There are a lot of speeches today, including from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Inflation data for October was released in the US yesterday. This fell in line with market expectations, but according to experts, this hasn’t provided the Fed any reasons to speed up their rate hike trajectory. The more ambitious the euro’s growth against the dollar, the less likely we are to see it drop to 1.1215.