Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 294

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 28.01.2019 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has completed its sideways correction without reaching the retracement of 23.6%. After breaking the high, the price is trading upwards to reach the mid-term retracement of 76.0% at 1316.02. At the same time, there might be a divergence on MACD to indicate that the current uptrend may be over soon.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is trying to fix above the broken resistance level. In the short-term, the instrument may fall towards 1298.47.

GOLD2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after reaching the retracement of 61.8% and finishing the ascending wave, USDCHF has been corrected to the downside by 50.0%. The key support level is at 0.9835. After completing the correction, the instrument may start a new uptrend towards the retracement of 76.0% at 1.0029.

USDCHF1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows more detailed structure after the divergence. The pair has been corrected to the downside by 38.2% and may continue falling towards the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 0.9895 and 0.9872 respectively. At the same time, there is a convergence on MACD. The resistance is the high at 0.9990.

USDCHF2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

5 Most Useful Blockchain Videos: A Beginner’s Guide

By Sarah Pritzker

You might be somewhat familiar with the idea of blockchains, or you might have only heard of the phrase in passing (or you might not have any idea what a blockchain is but thought the article title sounded more interesting than the topic currently being discussed in the meeting your supervisor is making you sit through…). Either way, there are still a lot of questions that you probably have.

What is a blockchain?

How does a blockchain actually work?

Are blockchains really as secure as they claim to be?

Can you invest in blockchain itself?

What is the advantage of blockchain?

Maybe you’re getting more involved and want to delve deeper into the exciting and fascinating world of blockchains. In that case, your questions might be more advanced like:

What programming language is used for blockchains?

Is blockchain open source?

Is blockchain hackable?

Are there other use cases for blockchain beyond bitcoin storage?

Will blockchain change the world?

No matter what your string of queries, the best place to find the answers is always the internet. There are thousands and thousands of videos out there explaining the definition, uses, and inner workings of the blockchain.

I know what you’re thinking. Great! Let’s sift through thousands of videos to find the ones that actually make sense, answer your questions, and give over the information you want in an appealing manner. If that doesn’t sound as much fun as a barrel of monkeys (why would a barrel of monkeys be fun anyway?!), then you’re in luck.

Since we know how interested our readers are in the topic, we’ve aggregated the best videos from across the web that talk about blockchains. From the straight-up definition to the more advanced jargon that most of us will never really understand, check out the 5 most useful blockchain videos out there to help you get started down the path of blockchain wisdom.

Great Blockchain Video #1: What is blockchain? CNBC Explains by Tom Chitty

And here’s why: It gives you all the important information you want to know, starts from the beginning, and explains the entire concept well

There are a lot of blockchain for beginners videos. You’ll recognize them by the names like, what is a blockchain, blockchain explained, or blockchain for beginners. The truth is, though, that most of these videos take a lot for granted, assume you know more than you actually do about the topic, or don’t really explain the concept in a practical way.

And that’s why this CNBC exclusive done by Tom Chitty is our first recommendation for anyone who is just starting out on the learning journey to blockchain technology. If you can understand the accent and overlook the poor wardrobe choices, then you can actually learn a ton from this explanation video. Chitty goes through the ABCs of blockchains, showing the negatives alongside the positive uses for blockchains. He also shows you exactly how it works, why it is so secure, and what future applications might be possible for this technology.

The CNBC video also takes you through the benefits and possible financial ramifications that are involved in embracing this technology. All in all, Chitty does a great job of explaining a complex topic and gives you a lot of food for thought.

Great Blockchain Video #2: New Kids on the Blockchain by Lorne Lantz

And here’s why: Practical ways people are currently putting blockchain to good use and how they will even more so in the future

Aside from the fact that this is a TED talk, which automatically makes it amazing, Lorne Lantz explains exactly how blockchain works quickly and eloquently. He then moves on to break down how blockchain works within the bitcoin universe, something that most people are curious about. Finally, Lantz illustrates how blockchain can be used in other instances. This is not only fascinating, but it is a great way to educate the public about how this brilliant technology can be utilized in the future and within our day-to-day interactions.

Great Blockchain Video #3: Understand the blockchain in two minutes by Institute for the Future (IFTF)

And here’s why: It’s fast and easy to watch but surprisingly thorough for a two-minute video

We all want to know more about various topics like cybersecurity, the effect of drug and alcohol combinations, or depression and prevention. But let’s face it, we’re lazy! And what’s more, our attention spans are shorter than Michael Jordan’s laughable attempt at becoming a baseball star. For this reason, I am highlighting this video from IFTF.

The Institute for the Future does snapshots of interesting topics, trending concepts, and technological advancements that they deem worthy of a closer look. This video on blockchain is just two minutes long, but somehow it manages to explain everything you really need for a cursory understanding of the topic (and even a little more). So, if you’re already antsy just from reading this intro, check out the IFTF blockchain video (you can watch it double speed if you’re that strapped for time!).

Great Blockchain Video #4: How the blockchain will radically transform the economy by Bettina Warburg

And here’s why: Food for thought on a more advanced technology that is offering a safer and more reliable forum for value exchange

Whether you’re a conspiracy theorist, a budding financial mogul, or just someone who thinks it’s really cool to see entire empires brought to their knees by the unlikely underdog (think David and Goliath or Spartans against the Persians), this is a must watch video. Bettina Warburg explains briefly how throughout history we have used various methods to exchange values within our societies. From protection to fish and coins and now to the more advanced banks and digital currencies, the world has always had its way of trading valuables for desired goods.

In this video (yep, another TED talk), Warburg takes us through the process of how blockchain is the next chain in the evolution of value exchange. She expertly breaks it down, so you can see how this makes sense on a sociological, economic, and technological level. What’s more, she demonstrates how blockchain is the safest, easiest, and most reliable method we have come up with yet.

So basically, Warburg’s video shows viewers how blockchain is like a solid, unbreakable safe, which makes it more trustworthy and evergreen than any other transaction method that came before it. I don’t want to spoil the video for you, so just watch it for yourself.

Great Blockchain Video #5: Blockchain: Massively Simplified Richie Etwaru

And here’s why: A fabulous twist

This video starts off seemingly like all other beginner’s guides to blockchain. It talks about the early days of the internet (those dark times of dial-up modems and even earlier ARPAnet packet switching technologies) and quickly fast forwards to show you how kickass technology has become (as if we needed a video to tell us that).

All very interesting stuff, but nothing new. And then Etwaru does something that nobody else we’ve seen so far attempt. He takes blockchain and explains how it can bridge a gap that no other technology has been able to traverse, a gap that is so fundamental to human interactions and our society as a whole that it’s truly a marvel that we’ve gotten this far in history without having a more reliable failsafe for it.

In this video, Etwaru explains that inventions are all about bridging gaps in our society, world, and lives. He then continues on illustrating how blockchain bridges the gap of trust, one of the most core and necessary element of our society, one that holds trillions of dollars on its wobbly shoulders. With his mesmerizing voice, witty personality, and mind-blowing revelation, Etwaru really blows the top off of this simplified concept. And that’s what makes his video on blockchain really stand out.

Blockchain Explained, Expanded, and Explored

So, there you have it. Sure, you could sit there for hours and hours watching video after video, sifting through the crap and suffering through the clunky terminology, but why bother? We’ve rounded up the cream of the crop, the best videos out there, the ones that’ll give you the biggest bang for your buck. In fact, if you just watch these five videos, you’ll:

• Know all the basic information about what blockchain is, how it works, and what it’s used for
• Be able to hold your own in a conversation that is arguing the different sides of blockchain
• Have some interesting ideas to help stir up controversy when everyone’s talking about this technology at the office water cooler, at your next family barbecue, or this Thursday night at the bar
• Just generally sound like a smartass because you know more about an interesting topic than almost anyone else in the room

Of course, if you are a real newbie to the blockchain concept, then here’s some quick information to warm you up to the subject and to ensure you don’t sound like a complete idiot the next time the subject comes up.

• Blockchain is an online database that can be accessed by anyone and from anywhere in the world (provided you have an internet connection)
• Blockchain is decentralized, which means its ledger is shared on every computer around the world, so it has no single central location
• Blockchain can be added to by anyone, but once a record (or block of information) is created, it cannot be tampered with, changed, or deleted
• Bitcoin is NOT the only use case for blockchain technology. In fact, it’s just the beginning baby! From banking to cybersecurity, crowdfunding, Internet of Things, and healthcare, blockchain has so many real-life applications.

Now that you’ve got all this information in your head, knowledge is power. So, get out there and do the best thing anyone can do with a boatload of interesting information; flaunt it in front of your friends.

By Sarah Pritzker

Sarah is a Content Writer, Editor & Strategist at Youtubetomp3shark.com.

 

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.01.28

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.13010
  • Open: 1.14006
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.96
  • Day’s range: 1.13928 – 1.14256
  • 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

EUR started to recover after a significant downfall during the last two weeks. On Friday, January 25, the quotes have grown by 100 points and updated the key extremums. A political conflict is ongoing in the White House. Last week Donald Trump finally signed off on the temporary financing of the government until February 15. The currency pair is consolidating around 1.13800-1.14250. You should open positions from these levels. The key events this week will be the Federal Reserve meeting and the US Labour Market report for January.

The Economic News Feed for 28.01.2019 is calm. Keep an eye on the statements made by the head of the EU Central Bank.

EUR/USD

The price fixed above the 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator reached the oversold zone, the %K line is below the %D line which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.13800, 1.13450, 1.13000
  • Resistance levels: 1.14250, 1.14850

If the price fixes above the local support 1.14250, consider buying EUR/USD. The movement will tend toward 1.14600-1.14800.

Alternatively the quotes can descend toward 1.13500-1.13300.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.30624
  • Open: 1.31838
  • % chg. over the last day: +1.05
  • Day’s range: 1.31614 – 1.32110
  • 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

GBP/USD keeps showing a stable ascending trend. Right now the pount is consolidating around the 3mo maximums. The key levels are 1.31350 and 1.32150. A technical correction is possible soon. The investors are waiting for a vote in the British Parliament regarding the Brexit plan proposed by Theresa May. You should open positions from the key levels.

Keep an eye on the statements made by the head of the Bank of England.

GBP/USD

The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which shows the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line started to cross the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.31350, 1.30600, 1.30000
  • Resistance levels: 1.32150, 1.32500

If the price fixes above 1.32150, consider looking for the market entry points to open long positions. The movement will tend toward 1.32500-1.32750.

Alternatively the quotes can correct toward 1.30700-1.30400.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.33455
  • Open: 1.32183
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.97
  • Day’s range: 1.32030 – 1.32281
  • 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

USD/CAD had a rather aggressive sell-off on Friday, January 25. CAD added more than 120 points to ints value and updated the local extremums. Right now the quotes are consolidating around 1.32000 and 1.32300. The quotes can descend further. Keep an eye on the oil quotes dynamics.

The Economic News Feed for 28.01.2019 is calm.

USD/CAD

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.32000, 1.31500
  • Resistance levels: 1.32300, 1.32600, 1.32900

If the price falls lower than the round 1.32000, the quotes can descend toward 1.31600-1.31400..

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward 1.32500-1.32750.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.625
  • Open: 109.541
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.08
  • Day’s range: 109.265 – 109.574
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

USD/JPY is consolidating in the narrow range. The currenct technical picture indicates a development of a bearish mood. The key support and resistance levels are 109.250 and 109.500. You should open positions from these levels. Keep an eye on the US Treasury bonds yield.

The Economic News Feed for 28.01.2019 is calm.

USD/JPY

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which gives a strong signal to sell USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to a bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 109.250, 108.900, 108.700
  • Resistance levels: 109.500, 109.800, 110.000

If the quotes fix below the local support of 109.250, expect the quotes to descend toward 108.900-108.700.

Alternatively the quotes can grow toward 109.750-110.000.

Analytics by JustForex

Political Instability in the White House Is Still in the Focus of Attention

by JustForex

On Friday, the US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies despite the partial recovery of the US government. The US President, Donald Trump, reached a temporary deal with Congress, according to which the government will resume work until February 15. Within three weeks, the President and Congress should reach an agreement on a wall on the border with Mexico. The US dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-0.86) on Friday.

The current trading week will be full of important macroeconomic events. The Fed will announce its decision on a key interest rate. According to experts, the regulator will keep the interest rate at the level of 2.25-2.50%. Investors will also closely monitor the vote in the British Parliament on the Brexit plan proposed by Prime Minister, Theresa May. On Friday, February 1, a report on the US labor market for January will be published.

The “black gold” prices are falling. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $52.70 per barrel.

Market Indicators

On Friday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.85%), #DIA (+0.78%), #QQQ (+1.19%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield fell slightly. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 2.74-2.75%.

The News Feed on 28.01.2019:

Today, the publication of important economic data is not expected. We recommend paying attention to the speeches by the heads of the ECB and the Bank of England.

by JustForex

Will Oil Find Support Above $50?

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Recent global news regarding Venezuela, China, and global oil supply/production have resulted in the price of Oil pausing over the past few weeks near $53 to $55 ppb.  We believe the continued supply glut and uncertainty will result in oil prices falling, briefly, back below $50 ppb before any new price rally begins.  Our researchers at TheTechnicalTraders.com believe historical resistance near $54~55 is strong enough to drive prices lower before new momentum picks up for a renewed price rally.

Eventually, yes, oil will rally above $55 and attempt to target the $65+ price level.  Yet we don’t believe that move is going to happen right now.  We believe the global uncertainty; the slowing Chinese economy and the global supply glut will result in a fundamental price decrease before any momentum for an upside price move begins.  Our analysis suggests a price move back below $50 ppb, likely targeting the $46~47 level, where basing may occur.

Uncertainty in Venezuela and other oil-producing nations may result in a disruption in supply at some point in the future.  We must be cautious of unknown situations that could result in dramatic price shifts.  Yet, overall, with supply levels still high and slowing global economic expectations, it makes sense that oil would attempt to base and find support near recent lows – between $46~48.

Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019.  Learn how our proprietary predictive modeling systems have called these moves in the past and how our research team can assist you in finding great opportunities in the future.

Chris Vermeulen

 

 

Why Everyone’s Talking About Gold & Silver

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

If you have been following some of the research posts by some of the biggest names in the precious metals industry, you may understand “why” so many people are so excited about the opportunities in Gold and Silver recently.  There are so many facets to the fundamental and emotional functions of precious metals as an industrial commodity as well as a safe-haven investment to protect against risk and to hedge against inflation.  Old school traders were taught to “watch gold, oil, and bonds” for signs of concern, weakness and as a means of gauging total market sentiment.  The idea behind this statement was these market tend to act as the “canary in the coal mine” in terms of fear and risk.

Recently, we posted an article that suggested Gold, Silver and many other precious metals would move in unison as this new price expansion takes place (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/metals-moving-in-unison-for-a-massive-price-advance-part-ii/).  Many of our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold will rocket well above $1400 sometime near May or June of 2019.  These predictive modeling tools help us to identify opportunities and price moves well ahead of the other research firms available today.  Our unique tools can actually pinpoint times/dates when breakout moves should take place and allow traders to prepare for these moves months in advance – like today.

Within this article, we are attempting to highlight the fact that any lower price rotation in Gold or Silver would be an excellent opportunity for skilled investors to target new positions or to acquire more physical material.  We believe Gold and Silver will continue to rotate near current price levels over the next 30~60+ days while setting up a moderate range of rotation.  Buying near the lower range of this rotation will allow traders to set up advantageous long positions ahead of the suggested breakout dates and really capitalize on any upside advance.  Let’s go over some of our expectations as we prepare for this next move higher.

First, our TT Charger system on this Monthly chart shows that the core price support/resistance range, the CYAN, and RED narrow price channel, is currently just below $1300 and moving slightly lower.  This is important because this longer-term chart is reacting to the price peak from 2012 and this price channel is currently providing a resistance zone that we expect the price to break above in a very aggressive manner.  You can also see the BLUE DIAMONDS that represent current bullish price trend.  Since early 2016, the TT Charger modeling system has identified Gold as being in a bullish price trend.

 

This next Monthly Gold chart is strictly price action.  Our belief is that the resistance zone, highlighted in YELLOW, will act as a horizontal price channel over the next 30~60 days as price continues to build support and momentum for the upside breakout.  This suggests that any price level below $1240 would provide an excellent buying opportunity for skilled traders that believe as we do.  The future price rotation should continue to tighten as we near the May/June breakout date – thus, we may only have a few of these deeper low price rotation ahead.

 

Lastly, this Monthly Gold chart highlights our expectations of a FLAG FORMATION breakout and how we believe the price will meander a bit higher, closer to the $1325 level, before the big breakout to the upside happens.  You can see from the WHITE lines drawn on this chart that potential for price rotation nearing $1200 exists, yet we are not expecting any deeper price rotation over the next 2~3 months.  We believe any move below $1240 would be considered a fairly deep price low and present a clear opportunity for skilled traders.

We believe Gold prices will continue to congest closer to the $1300~1320 level as we get closer to the breakout dates.  Therefore, we suggest traders pay attention to price rotation as it plays out in the future for real setups and opportunities in the precious metals.  The large GREEN arrow showing a potential breakout towards the $1700 level is our estimate of this potential upside move.  Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting a minimum of $1550 will be reached by September 2019.  Thus, we are expecting a $1600~1700 initial price advance through this upside move that would start a WAVE C price advance.

We urge all traders to pay very close attention to these moves in the precious metals.  These are incredible opportunities that are setting up right before our eyes.  If you understand what this move means for the global markets and for equity markets, then we know you value our research.  If you want to stay aware of these types of moves and learn how our predictive modeling tools can help you find and execute better trades, then take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn what we offer our clients.  Trust us, you really want to have a skilled team of researchers helping you understand how to prepare for this move.

Chris Vermeulen

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Podcast: Precious Metals Getting a New Push

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 25.01.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is moving according to the main scenario; it has completed the descending wave at 1.1300 along with the first correctional impulse towards 1.1320. Possibly, the pair may fall towards 1.1307, thus forming a new consolidation range. If the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the price may continue the correction up to 1.1348; if to the downside –continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.1245. The key target of this wave is at 1.1190.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is about to finish the ascending wave at1.3131. Possibly, today the pair may form a reversal pattern at the current highs and start a new descending structure to reach 1.3000. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards 1.3070 and then start a new decline with the first target at 1.2892.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is forming the first ascending impulse with the target at 0.986. Later, the market may form a new descending structure to reach 0.9962 and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 1.0000.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is forming another ascending wave; it has broken 109.75 upwards. Today, the pair may reach 109.99 and then return to 109.75. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the short-term target at 110.10.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed another descending wave; right now, it is consolidating near the lows and forming the divergent Triangle pattern. Possibly, today the pair may start a new growth with the target at 0.7134 and then continue trading inside the downtrend towards 0.7030.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still trading downwards. Possibly, the pair may extend the structure to reach 65.45 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 66.36. Later, the market may continue trading inside the downtrend towards 62.25.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still moving downwards. Today, the pair may reach 1275.00 and then start a new growth to test 1285.50 from below. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the target at 1265.50.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent has rebounded from 60.27 and may form one more ascending structure with the target at 62.11. Possibly, today the pair may fall to reach 61.16 and then grow towards the above-mentioned target. In fact, the market is forming a wide consolidation range. If the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the price may expand the structure up to 63.95; if to the downside – start a new correction with the target at 57.57.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Dow in 1937 vs Today – Warnings from the Past

By Paul Farrugia, First Macro Capital

Much has been discussed, about has happened to the world since 2008, and many investors today are anchoring to the most recent crash in 2008-09. A new crop of investors never even experienced a true crash. But the next crash is never the same as the last crash. The solutions to end the last crash, are typically the fuel and causes for the next crash. Even in the 1930s, after the 1929 crash, investors were waiting for a next similar type of crash. Ray Dalio and the team at Bridgewater have stated, that we are currently going through a 1937 type of environment in relation to the economic and political cycles. The next questions remain: “What happened to the Dow Jones Industrial Average during 1937-1938? What happened to the US Economy in 1937-1938? Did the US enter a recession? Did the Central Banks save the world?

The 1929 Crash vs 2008 Financial Crisis

When we look at the stages from the peak of 1929 to the crash, the Great Depression, then followed by the next business cycle, which then ended in 1937.  We can see the similarities of today’s current business cycle to 1929. And where are we today? Stage 6: “Central Bank Tightens a bit, resulting in a self-enforcing downturn.”

Stages of the Cycle as Per Ray Dalio from 1929 Crash vs 2008 Crash

 What was the Federal Reserve Policy Mistake That Caused the 1937 Crash?

When we talk about the massive amount of liquidity being withdrawn by Central today, not unlike the halt in monetary expansion in 1936, which is very similar to the policy decision to reduce central bank balance sheets. We can see in the following chart, the Federal Reserve monetary expansion growth stopped.

“There is a natural tendency for policymakers to pull back on accommodation too early before the real rate of interest has fallen to low enough levels. Such errors happened in 1937 when the Fed prematurely withdrew accommodation.”– Chicago Fed President Charles (2012), Federal Reserve History

The Fed’s contractionary policy was complemented by the Treasury’s decision, in late June 1936, to sterilize gold inflows in order to reduce excess reserves. The sterilization policy severed the link between gold inflows and monetary expansion. By preventing gold inflows from becoming part of the monetary base, this policy abruptly halted what had been a strong monetary expansion.”Federal Reserve History.

US money supply (M2), 1934-39

Source: https://voxeu.org/

THE FED IS CAUGHT IN THE SAME TRAP TODAY LIKE 1937

While the future never exactly repeats, it sure does rhyme? As Central Banks around the world are unwinding their Mount Everest size balance sheets, even if they pause rising interest rates. The massive withdrawal of liquidity will be pulling the oxygen out of the financial markets, the Fed’s balance sheet rose from $900bn in 2008 to $4300bn in 2018. It is likely to drop only as far as $2900bn by the end of 2020” (FT).  This is a 33% drop in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and if you look to history, there is no guarantee it will drop by that much if we head into a recession in 2019 because the Fed may have to inject more liquidity back into the system by then. We will wait and see.

THE GHOSTS OF THE DOW FROM1937

The Dow peaked in February 1937 and then fell by ~10% over a four-month period. It then recovered for a month, then went down by almost 10% from its high and recovered for a month before crashing by almost 50% for the next 8 months. The Dow Stayed range bound for the next 103 months. The US entered a recession three months later in May 1937, and it lasted for 13 months.  US GDP declined by 18.2%, making it one of the deepest recessions over the 20thand 21stcenturies. The recession of 2008 lasted for 19 months and GDP decreased by 5.2% [bea.gov].

SO WHERE ARE WE TODAY?

If we assume the high is in for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in September 2018, which then decreased by more than 10% over the next three months, before rallying higher this past month. So far the Dow is repeating the path of 1937, and this recent rally may be only a bear market trap for investors. It is a reminder to be cautious as 1937 shows just how quickly things can deteriorate as the Dow Jones Industrial average dropped by almost 50% in 8 months because of the Fed policy being caught. Consumer Discretionary and technology underperform more than other sectors late in the cycle, and technology continues to underperform during the recession stage. Apple demand has dropped off, which we previously have written about. If industrials underperform going forward than this would highlight a slowdown is in the cards.

If industrial order books outlook slows over the next six months, then industrial stocks will underperform more than most sectors, confirming we are at the recessionary stage of the cycle because of demand falling over.

RECESSION IN THE CARDS FOR 2019

If we look back at past market tops, historically recessions start within 1-13 months from the market top. This would put a recession in the cards for the US between October 2018 to October 2019. When looking at the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI has now hit 27-month lows, and we would expect to further deteriorate in 2019 as the US shutdown continues, sentiment surveys (Consumer, Business, CEO) deteriorate, and both US manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs decelerate. We also expect jobless claims to accelerate in the weeks ahead as we have seen manufacturing companies increase layoffs over the past two months, from GM, Ford, and has only increased in January 2019.

2019 has started off with a boom, but there is still more than 90% to go to end 2019, and there is still a lot that can happen until the end of the year. If 1937 is to repeat, further economic deceleration is in the cards for 2019 that many investors should be prepared for. A Fed policy mistake from Central because of the liquidity withdrawal looks increasingly probable, and the consequences for the markets are high. Here is to 2019, keep your eyes open and be flexible.

 

About the Author:

Paul Farrugia, BCom. Paul is the President & CEO of First Macro Capital. He helps his readers identify mining stocks that you can hold for the long-term. He provides a checklist to find winning gold and silver mining producer stocks, including battery metals.

 

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 25.01.2019 (BITCOIN, ETHEREUM)

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the correctional downtrend is slowing down a bit; BTCUSD is testing the retracement of 61.8%. In the future, the pair may continue falling towards the retracement of 76.0% at 3389.00. The key target and the obstruction for the current descending movement is the low at 3121.90. The resistance level is at 3810.00. If the price breaks it, the instrument may expand its mid-term correction towards the key high at 4234.50.

BTCUSD1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is being corrected inside the descending impulse. If the price breaks the low at 3450.00, the instrument may fall towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 3332.00 and 3258.00 respectively.

BTCUSD2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair reached the retracement of 61.8% and then there was a convergence on MACD. The correction may yet continue to reach the retracement of 76.0% at 100.00. After breaking the local resistance 130.00, the price may start a new rising impulse towards the high at 160.44.

ETHUSD1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is forming a new short-term correction to the upside, which has already reached the retracement of 50.0%. The next upside targets may be the retracements of 61.8% and 76.0% at 120.55 and 122.70 respectively. The support is the low at 111.01.

ETHUSD2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.