InvestMacro

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.13892
• Open: 1.13694
• % chg. over the last day: -0.10
• Day’s range: 1.13651 – 1.13908
• 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

EUR has stabilized. The EUR/USD quotes are moving sideways. The key support and resistance levels are 1.13700 and 1.14000. The investors are evaluating the stream of the geopolitical news. The US President Donald Trump and the leader of the PRK Kim Jeong Un could not reach an aggreement on the denuclearization of Korea on the summit in Vietnam. The European comision is worried about the Italian debt. The attention of the market participants is on the preliminary data on the US GDP. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 28.02.2019:

• – GDP report (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Number of the primary requests for unemployment benefits (EU) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);

Also, keep an eye on the comments made by the FOMC representatives.

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above %D line, which points to the bullish mood.

• Support levels: 1.13700, 1.13500, 1.13200
• Resistance levels: 1.14000, 1.14500

If the price fixes above the round 1.14000, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.14300-1.14500.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward 1.13500-1.13300.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.32519
• Open: 1.33068
• % chg. over the last day: +0.50
• Day’s range: 1.32730 – 1.33193
• 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

GBP/USD keeps showing a positive trend. Yesterday the quotes grew by 60 points. The pound teached the 1.33 USD. Earlier Theresa May offered the British lawmakers to offer for posponing Brexit, in order to prevent a chaotical exit without an aggreement. Right now the quotes are consolidating around 1.32750-1.33450. You should open positions from these levels.

The Economic News Feed for 28.02.2019 is calm.

The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which points to the bullish mood.

• Support levels: 1.32750, 1.32150, 1.31500
• Resistance levels: 1.33450, 1.34000

If the price fixes above 1.33450, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.34000.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward 1.32150-1.31800.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31657
• Open: 1.31543
• % chg. over the last day: -0.20
• Day’s range: 1.31410 – 1.31762
• 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

USD/CAD is showing an ambiguous technical picture. The trading instrument is moving sideways. The local support and resistance levels are 1.31500 and 1.31850. The financial market participants are waiting for additional drivers. Keep an eye on the US GDP. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 28.02.2019 is calm.

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, which gives a signal to buy USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.31500, 1.31150, 1.31000
• Resistance levels: 1.31850, 1.32150, 1.32400

If the price fixes below 1.31500, expect the quotes to fall toward the round 1.31000.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.32150-1.32400.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 110.568
• Open: 110.984
• % chg. over the last day: +0.26
• Day’s range: 110.661 – 110.997
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

From the beginning of the week, USD/JPY is very active. There is no single definitive trend. Right now there is no safe haven currency. The local support and resistance levels are 110.650 and 110.850. You should open positions from these levels. Keep an eye on the economic reports and the bond dynamics.

During the Asian trading session, Japan published weak reports on the Japanese production volume and retail sales.

The indicators do not provide precise data, 50 MA has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which points to the bullish mood.

• Support levels: 110.650, 110.500, 110.350
• Resistance levels: 110.850, 111.050, 111.200

If the price fixes below 110.650, expect the quotes to fall toward 110.400-110.250.

Alternatively, the qtuoes can grow toward 111.100-111.300.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

Yesterday, the US dollar recovered some losses against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) closed in the positive zone (+0.18%). Financial market participants evaluate the news flow. Fed Chairman Powell confirmed that the regulator would adhere to the “dovish sentiment” in relation to monetary policy and would not raise the interest rate in the near future. The US currency was supported by positive economic data. Thus, pending home sales index in the US rose by 4.6% in January instead of 0.8%, as experts expected.

The Chinese yuan weakened against the US currency after the release of weak economic statistics. Today, during the Asian trading session, Chinese manufacturing PMI has been published, which has counted to 49.2 in February and has occured to be worse than the expected 49.5. This suggests that the difficult trade relations between the US and China have a negative impact on the economy of China.

At the moment, investors are focused on the relationship between US President Donald Trump and DPRK leader Kim Jong Un. As it became known, the leaders met yesterday in Vietnam but did not reach an agreement. Let us recall that the United States tried to achieve the denuclearization of the DPRK. Earlier, Trump promised to provide security guarantees for the DPRK, and Kim Jong Un – to help the United States return home the remains of US service members who were taken as prisoners during the Korean War. However, Kim Jong Un demanded in response to cancel the US sanctions against North Korea completely, but Trump did not agree to do that.

Also, financial market participants are concerned about the conflict between India and Pakistan. Yesterday, countries announced that they launched air strikes on each other’s territory for the first time since the war in 1971. The conflict between India and Pakistan began to escalate since mid-February when Indian military police officers died due to a suicide murderer’s attack in Kashmir. The militant group Jaish-e-Muhammad claimed the responsibility for that.

The “black gold” prices have been declining after a sharp rise during yesterday’s trading session. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing $56.75 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bearish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.04%), #DIA (-0.26%), #QQQ (-0.06%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has been growing. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 2.66-2.67%.

– Preliminary data on US GDP at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
– Initial jobless claims in the US at 15:30 (GMT+2:00).

We also recommend paying attention to the speeches by the FOMC representatives.

by JustForex

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Today we warn of a potential downside price rotation in precious metals that may last 3~5+ weeks as metals set up for a massive breakout rally which we believe will start in late April or early May. Our custom indicators are suggesting that precious metals, and the general US stock markets, may be setting up for a bit of a reprieve rotation after a very impressive recovery. Be patient as we believe this pullback in prices will provide an excellent buying opportunity for the eventual momentum rally setting up in about 30+ days.​

Let’s start by looking at our Custom Market Volatility indicators.  The Weekly chart below highlights the recent recovery in the US stock market since the December 24^th, 2018 lows and also shows that the current recovery level is sitting right at a 61.8% Fibonacci level.  It is our belief that a period of general price weakness will begin to unfold over the next 10~15+ days in the US stock market.  This rotation is very healthy for the next leg higher – the momentum rally we have been suggesting will take place in the near future.

We believe the downside rotation in the US stock market will be the result of renewed calm from expectations that the global economy may begin a recovery process as the US/China trade issues and other geopolitical issues seem to become more resolved.  We believe the recent upside move in the US stock markets were a flight to safety for many foreign investors fearing that US/China trade issues would result in very harsh outcomes near March 1.  If the trade issues appear to be close to a resolution, this flight to safety trade may wane a bit over the next 10~20+ days as emerging markets may see a dramatic upside bounce in valuations.

How does this relate to Gold and Silver?  It is very likely that the upside pricing pressure in precious metals will stall a bit as the global equities markets take center stage.  If our analysis is correct, the developed markets will contract while the emerging markets take focus.  This falls right into line with our analysis that the US stock markets will pause/rotate over the next 10~20+ days in preparation for a larger upside price swing.

Our custom Gold/Silver Index is showing that precious metals are trading in a sideways Pennant/Flag formation near levels that have historically been resistance.  We still believe the upside in the precious metals market over the long term is substantial, yet we believe the news of a US/China trade resolution and the resulting rally in the emerging markets will remove much of the upside pricing pressure in the precious metals markets for about 15+ days before momentum support is found.

Our researchers believe the timing of this move is right for a short term swing trade.  Be prepared for rotation in nearly all the global markets and be prepared for emerging markets to see an upside price rally as a result of positive news from the US and China over the next 2+ weeks.

Are you ready for these moves?  Do you value the research we share with you and the insight we provide?  Please take a minute to visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.  Support our work – become a member.  We dedicate our efforts to providing you with more detailed and intuitive market research available anywhere else.  Isn’t it time you invested in a team that can really help you make 2019 a great success?

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has reached 1.1400 and completed the ascending wave. Possibly, today the pair may form the first descending impulse towards 1.1374 and then start a new correction to reach 1.1388. Later, the market may resume moving downwards to break 1.1374 and then continue falling with the first target at 1.1322.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has finished the ascending structure. Today, the pair may form the first descending impulse towards 1.3210. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to reach 1.3245 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.3130.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still consolidating near the lows. Possibly, today the pair may form a new ascending structure to break 1.0022 and then continue growing with the first target at 1.0058.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is moving downwards. Today, the pair may reach 110.34 and then start a new correction towards 110.60. Later, the market may resume trading inside the downtrend with the first target at 109.97.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading upwards; it has tested 0.7194 once again. Possibly, the pair may resume trading inside the downtrend with the first target at 0.7030.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has expanded its consolidation range upwards and almost formed the Divergent Triangle pattern to reach 65.85. Possibly, today the pair may form one more descending structure towards 65.45. If later the price breaks 65.85 to the upside, the instrument may be corrected to reach 66.20; if 65.45 to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 64.80.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is trading upwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 1333.84 and then resume moving downwards to break 1320.70 and then continue falling with the short-term target at 1310.83.

BRENT

Brent has returned to 65.55. Today, the pair may start a new decline towards 63.80 and then form a new ascending structure to test 65.55 from below. Later, the market may continue falling with the target at 63.50.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By OilPrice.com

Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs).

Increased shareholder activism, combined with global warming policies of institutional investors and NGOs, are pushing IOCs in a corner, constricting financing options for oil companies.

The first signs of a green revolution in the shareholder-investors universe are there, as investors have forced Dutch oil and gas major Shell to officially change its strategy, investing in more renewable energy and energy storage. The Dutch IOC wasn’t forced by to do so because of mismanagement or a lack of reserves but due to a well-orchestrated investor/stakeholder offensive. Several other peers, such as BP, ENI or Total, are expected to experience comparable situations.

And it has become clear that not only oil and gas giants are being targeted, after one of the world’s largest mining and commodity trading companies, Glencore, decided to put a limit on its thermal coal investment. The group stated that this was done after it was confronted by a largely unknown shareholder network called Climate Action 100+, which claims to be backed by more than 300 investors, managing assets of around $32 trillion. The group was founded a little over a year ago but has already forced oil majors’ boardrooms to take radical decisions.

The above shows that international hydrocarbon and mining sectors are facing a new obstacle, being confronted by large groups of socially and environmentally engaged shareholders, which are no longer looking at commercial value only. A combination of activist institutional investors, international pension funds and NGOs, is a new force to be dealt with. Stock-exchanged listed companies will need to address the will of their shareholders, especially with regards to climate change policies or decarbonization of the economy. After decades of having focused on creating maximum shareholder returns, things have changed dramatically, but maybe not for the better.

For Climate Action 100+, which includes investors such as Calpers, Allianz SE, and HSBC Global Asset Management, making profitable investments remains a top priority, but they will no longer look accept a passive stance towards climate change. Without complying with the demands of NGOs and socially engaged investors, access to new capital for new oil and gas upstream projects will be reduced. Some even expect that the role of Western IOCs could decline in the next couple of years, due to political shareholder engagement policies. To force IOCs, such as Shell or BP, to comply with policies that would halve their “net carbon footprint” by 2050 could result in a death-wish for these companies in the long-run.

The demise of IOCs, as we know them right now, could come sooner than many may expect. This will, of course, come at a cost for energy-hungry regions or consumers. With a net demand growth for oil and gas in the coming years, the world will need all hands on deck to support upstream investments to bring the hard-needed oil and gas reserves and volumes to the market. With less financing options for IOCs, and also oilfield services, the already existing investment gap in upstream investment worldwide will only grow wider. In contrast to what some media sources are suggesting, oil and gas demand will not diminish, on the contrary, oil and gas prices will rise due to a lack of supply.

That this picture is not a future nightmare scenario but is already the reality, is shown by the fact that a growing amount of smaller oil and gas companies have become insolvent. The latter is partly caused by “global warming constraints” and lower oil prices in general. The first casualties are falling in Europe, mainly the UK, where 16 companies went bankrupt in 2018, in comparison to zero in 2012. British accountancy firm Moore Stephenson stated that lower prices were the main cause. At the same time, increased costs (North Sea decommissioning) and lower oil price expectations are doing the rest. If the international financial markets are going to take over the doomsday scenarios presented by pressure groups and NGOs, independent oil and gas companies are going to be hit extremely hard. No investor is willing to invest in a sector or company that looks to hit rock-bottom in the next decade. Stranded reserves reports, as presented by the Bank of England and others, are not helping at all to change perceptions.

Western consumers and politicians, however, should not already start to cheer a green revolution and the end of the oil era. The future is different and could be even less positive than currently is assessed. Financial pressure on IOCs is opening up a Pandora’s Box. By removing market-oriented oil and gas giants from global markets, the only way to gain access to oil and gas will be the national oil companies (NOCs). Not only are they the real owners of the overwhelming majority of hydrocarbon reserves in the world, but NOCs are also not constrained by shareholder activism or NGO pressure.

The main driver for NOCs is to support the sustainable economic growth of their home country or government. In stark contrast to IOCs, which are fully focused on shareholder value and profits, NOCs have a long-term national approach, in which other factors are playing a role. Saudi Aramco and its peers are not only the sole owner of the reserves but also of most of the value chain. The ongoing downstream focus of NOCs can be seen as a push to gain control of the entire value chain, from exploration to sales.

This position is still of value to institutional investors and national financial institutions, as the combination of long-term access, ownership and extensive value chain control, is very attractive. The Fitch AA+ rating of Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC shows that NOCs have become very attractive, even more than IOCs at present.

Mainstream investors, hedge- and pension funds, are and will be interested in financing NOCs, as long as demand and profits are there. Western consumers and the industry should however also realize that a transformation of power to NOCs will also mean that market fundamentals will change, and possible unexpected hiccups in supply will occur at the will of governments, not due to market fundamentals. NOCs are still controlled and owned by national governments.

Supply risks will increase if IOCs see their influence in the hydrocarbon sector diminish. Destruction of knowledge, technical capabilities and additional financing, could constrain the hard-needed push for new oil and gas production.

Political and environmental pressure groups should realize that pushing too hard for change could produce a boomerang effect of unwanted-order. To force IOCs to change their investment strategies, and abandon highly profitable upstream projects, while investing in renewables, could be more destabilizing than anticipated. Between 2014 and 2018, upstream oil and gas investments have been hit hard, leaving a $1 trillion investment gap. This development will impact the market within the next 24 months. Lower oil supply will push up prices if demand continues to grow.

Link to article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-32-Trillion-Fund-Transforming-The-Oil-Industry.html

By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has updated the previous high and may continue growing towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1.3385 and 1.3488 respectively. In the short-term, the instrument may be corrected to reach the local support level at 1.3216.

In the H1 chart, there is a divergence on MACD, which may indicate a new correctional downtrend. The possible targets may be the retracements of 23.6% and 38.2% at 1.3167 and 1.3090 respectively. However, this decline won’t last long and later the instrument may start a new rising wave.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURJPY is still trading upwards; the price is trying to fix above the retracement of 50.0% and reach the one of 61.8% at 127.34. The current support is at 123.76.

In the H1 chart, the divergence made the instrument start falling. It has already reached the retracement of 23.6%. The next possible targets are the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 125.50 and 125.27 respectively. However, if the price breaks the high at 126.30, the pair will continue growing.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.13583
• Open: 1.13892
• % chg. over the last day: +0.28
• Day’s range: 1.13725 – 1.13956
• 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

Yesterday, USD kept losing positions against the basket of major currencies. The US index (#DX) updated the local minimums after the dowish comments by Jerome Powell. The official is sure in the economic growth of the country. At the same time, the Central Bank will not increase the key interest rates. Right now the EUR/USD is moving in a flat. The key support and resistance levels are 1.13700 and 1.14000. Keep an eye on the Washington/Beijing trading negotiations. You should open positions from the key levels.

At 17:00 (GMT+2:00) the US will publish the index of opened sales on the real estate market.

The indicators point to the power of the buyers, the price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which points to the bullish mood.

• Support levels: 1.13700, 1.13500, 1.13200
• Resistance levels: 1.14000, 1.14500

If the price fixes above the round 1.14000, expect the quotes to rise toward 1.14300-1.14500.

Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward 1.13500-1.13300.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31083
• Open: 1.32519
• % chg. over the last day: +1.23
• Day’s range: 1.32336 – 1.32837
• 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

GBP/USD is in a steady rising trend. Yesterday the quotes grew by 150 points and updated the annual maximums. The PM of the UK, Theresa May, offered the British Parliament to vote for post-poning Brexit in order to manage the process better and make it less chaotic. Right now the quotes are testing the 1.32800 mark, with 1.32150 acting as the near support. There are further growth prospects.

The Economic News Feed for 27.02.2019 is calm.

The indicators point to the power of the buyers, the price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which also points to the bullish mood.

• Support levels: 1.32150, 1.31500, 1.31000
• Resistance levels: 1.32800, 1.33500

If the price fixes above 1.32800, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.33400-1.33600.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward 1.31700-1.31300.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31863
• Open: 1.31657
• % chg. over the last day: -0.20
• Day’s range: 1.31530 – 1.31763
• 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

Yesterday USD/CAD held the local resistance at 1.32400 and started to descend once more. The CAD is recovering due to the positive oil quotes dynamics. Right now the currency pair is consolidating aroun 1.31500-1.31850. It can descend further, but so far you should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.02.2019:

• – Economic Event (CAD) – 00:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – Economic Event (CAD) – 00:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – Economic Event (CAD) – 00:00 (GMT+2:00);

The indicators point to the power of the buyers, the price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and keeps lowering, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points to the bearish mood.

• Support levels: 1.31500, 1.31150, 1.31000
• Resistance levels: 1.31850, 1.32150, 1.32400

If the price lowers below 1.31500, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.31000.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward 1.32150-1.32400.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 111.029
• Open: 110.568
• % chg. over the last day: -0.45
• Day’s range: 110.354 – 110.628
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

USD/JPY is showing a bearish mood. During the last two days, yen recovered by more than 60 points. The quotes updated the local minimums. Right now the price is testing the support at 110.250-110.350 with 110.500 acting as a mirror resistance. The quotes have a tendency to descend. The US currency is under pressure after the dowish comments by Powell. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.02.2019 is calm.

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and keeps lowering, which points to the bearish mood.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals.

• Support levels: 110.350, 110.000
• Resistance levels: 110.500, 110.650, 110.800

If the price fixes below 110.350, expect the quotes to fall toward 110.000.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 110.700-110.900.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies during yesterday’s trading session. Dovish comments by Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, put pressure on the US currency. The official said yesterday that the country’s economy is in good condition. At the same time, the Central Bank will not rush to tighten monetary policy in the current year. The regulator will carefully evaluate future economic releases. The dollar index (#DX) updated local lows and closed the trading session in the red (-0.42%).

The political uncertainty concerning Brexit remains. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, promised the lawmakers that if they did not approve the revised Brexit agreement by March 12, a vote on the no-deal Brexit would be taken. If parliamentarians reject this option, a vote on the Brexit delay will be held on March 14. These statements have supported the pound.

The “black gold” prices have been recovering after a sharp collapse at the beginning of this week. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $55.85 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+2:00), a report on crude oil inventories will be published in the US.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.07%), #DIA (-0.13%), #QQQ (+0.10%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.63-2.64%.

– Core consumer price index in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
– Pending home sales index in the US at 17:00 (GMT+2:00).

We also recommend paying attention to the speech by Fed Chairman Powell.

by JustForex

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari