InvestMacro

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our researchers believe the NQ and YM chart illustrates a very different dynamic which is currently at play in the US Stock Markets.  The NQ, the Technology heavy NASDAQ futures, appears to have stalled near the 75% Fibonacci price retracement level whereas the YM, the Blue Chip heavy DOW futures, has already rallied past this level and is setting up a “double top” formation near 26268.  It is our belief that the US Stock Markets are already nearing an intermediate top rotation price area and that traders need to actively protect their long trades/profits right away.  We believe a downside price rotation may take place very quickly over the next 5~10+ days and that the markets may rotate downward by a minimum of 4~6% in what we are calling a “momentum rotation setup”.

This first chart of the YM on a Weekly charting basis shows how dramatic the upside price move since December 24^th has been  It also shows the current high prices are very near to the high price levels near the end of November 2018/early December 2018.  We believe this “intermediate double top” formation will prompt a downside price rotation towards support near 24985 (or a bit lower).  This represents a -5.5% price rotation and will likely frighten a few long traders.  It will also embolden the shorts to start to power back into the markets expecting “This is IT! – the Big One”.  We believe this downside price rotation will become a very healthy moderate downside price swing that will revalue equity prices, re-establish support and prompt a new upside momentum move that may eventually break all-time highs later this year.  In other words, we believe this rotation will be an excellent buying opportunity for skilled traders. We show our volatility VIX setup forming here.

This next NQ, NASDAQ Futures, Weekly chart highlight the dramatic difference between the Blue Chips and the Technology sectors.  Unlike the previous upside price swings, between 2016 to early 2018, where the Technology sector was the big gainer, this time it appears the Blue Chips and Mid-Caps are the strongest sectors in this recent move.

We believe this divergence between active price levels may continue through most of 2019 as traders and investors appear to be concerned with technology and the capability of continued earnings/growth going forward.  It appears global investors are more likely to move capital into Blue Chips and Mid-Caps because of stronger earning capabilities, dividends and overall strength of price appreciation.

If our prediction of a 4~6% downside price rotation come true, then we believe the Technology sector will likely result in a larger price rotation than the Blue Chips, Mid-Caps & S&P500 sectors.  We believe this downside rotation is about to hit the markets currently as the NQ has stalled near the 75% Fibonacci retracement level and our proprietary modeling systems are suggesting a “price anomaly” has setup in the NQ.

Be prepared for a moderately large, -4~6%, downside price rotation over the next 5~15 days where support will likely be found near the -5 to -6% levels for the YM and ES.  The NQ may fall a bit further towards 6295 ~ 6773 (-6% to -12%).  We believe the weakness in the technology sector will be much greater than the Blue Chips and Mid-Caps.

As skilled traders, we urge you to properly protect your open long positions and prepare for this price rotation.  Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

TheTechnicalTraders.com

03/01/2019 – Limassol, Cyprus – RoboMarkets, a European broker, announces a new promotion for the Company’s clients. From March 1st to May 31st 2019, conditions for trading Indices will be very much improved. Within the framework of the promotion, spreads for trading DE30 are significantly reduced as well as the commission for all other Indices available for trading to RoboMarkets clients.

For DE30 Index, spreads will be decreased from current values of 1.8 – 2.0 to 0.7 pips on MT4/5-based Pro-Standard accounts. On ECN-Pro and Prime accounts, this instrument will be available for trading with the spread of 0.5 pips.

For all other Indices, the commission will be reduced during the period of the promotion. On ECN-Pro accounts, the commission for the trading volume of 1 million USD will be 5 USD instead of 50 USD; on Prime accounts – 4 USD instead of 35 USD.

About RoboMarkets

RoboMarkets is an investment company with the CySEC license No. 191/13. RoboMarkets offers brokerage services in many European countries by providing traders, who work on financial market, with access to its proprietary trading platforms.

About DE30 index

DE30 is a blue chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our researchers believe price cycles and our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting the US and Global stock markets may be entering a period of price rotation very soon.  Our team of researchers has identified a date span of between March 5^th to March 13 as a range of dates where we expect the VIX to form a bottom and begin to rise sharply.

Our researchers believe this current rally in the US stock market is a bit overextended, even though the markets appear to be drifting a bit higher currently.  We believe the US stock market is due for a healthy price rotation/correction sometime near the middle of March that will allow new price valuation and momentum to build for a continued upside price move.

Currently, we are expecting Technology to be the biggest rotation of US majors.  In other words, we expect the NQ, NASDAQ and Technology stocks to take the biggest hit while this price rotation takes place.  This would make sense as new price valuation levels (lower) in technology would allow for a solid momentum base and renewed accumulation going forward.

Plan and prepare for this expected rotation by pulling some of your profits from any long trades while being aware that downward price swings are often 3~7x faster than upside price swings.  Our expectations are that we will see general price weakness beginning near March 5^th and a strong likelihood that the VIX will rotate above 16 as this volatility begins to increase.  Overall, we believe any VIX move above 20 will likely start to form a support/momentum bottom fairly quickly.

Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is forming the third descending wave. Possibly, today the pair may form one more descending structure to break 1.1351 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.1296.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has reached the first downside target; right now, it is being corrected. Today, the pair may start a new growth to reach 1.3283. After that, the instrument may resume moving downwards to break 1.3150 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.3030.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is forming the third ascending wave. Possibly, today the pair may form a new ascending structure to break 1.0012 and then continue growing with the short-term target at 1.0600.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is moving upwards. Today, the pair may grow to reach 112.09 and then fall towards 111.73. Later, the market may form a new ascending structure with the target at 112.12 and then start a new decline to reach 111.37.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading downwards with the target at 0.7030. Today, the pair may reach 0.7044 and then start a new correction towards 0.7118. Later, the market may r resume moving downwards to break the above-mentioned target and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 0.6922.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is consolidating around 65.65. If later the price breaks range to the upside, the instrument may continue growing to reach 66.20; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 62.90.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has reached the downside target and extended the structure. Possibly, today the pair may start the first correctional wave upwards with the target at 1300.92. Later, the market may form one more descending structure towards 1294.60 and then start a new growth with the short-term target at 1306.50.

BRENT

Brent is trading below 65.86. Possibly, the pair may form one more descending structure towards 63.95 and then resume moving upwards to reach 65.95, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks range to the upside, the instrument may continue growing to reach 68.40; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 60.80.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the divergence made XAUUSD reverse and start a new descending tendency, which is getting closer to the retracement of 38.2% at 1289.40. The next downside targets may be the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 1271.50 and 1253.60 respectively. The resistance level is the current high at 1346.68.

The H1 chart shows more detailed structure of the current decline. Right now, the pair is testing the retracement of 38.2% at 1289.40.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCHF has reached the retracement of 50.0%. The next downside target may be the retracement of 61.8% at 0.9881. However, there is a convergence on MACD, which may indicate a new rising impulse towards the local resistance level at 1.0047 and then the high at 1.0149.

In the H1 chart, the convergence made the pair start a new pullback upwards, which is getting closer to the retracement of 38.2% at 1.0011. The next upside targets may be the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 1.0038 and 1.0064 respectively.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.13703
• Open: 1.13802
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05
• Day’s range: 1.13490 – 1.13812
• 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

EUR/USD is showing an ambiguous technical picture. The trading instrument is moving in a flat. The local support and resistance levels are 1.13500 and 1.13750. The demand for the USD remains high. Additional support is given by the positive US Treasury bonds dynamic. The negotiations between the Washington and Beijing are in the spotlight. According to WSJ, US and China made progress in the negotiations and can reach an aggreement by March 27. The EUR/USD quotes have a tendency to descend. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 04.03.2019 is calm.

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which gives a strong signal to sell EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the oversold zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.13500, 1.13250, 1.13000
• Resistance levels: 1.13750, 1.14000, 1.14200

If the price falls below 1.13500, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.13250-1.13000.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.14000-1.14200.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.32614
• Open: 1.32476
• % chg. over the last day: -0.44
• Day’s range: 1.32246 – 1.32514
• 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

GBP/USD stabilized after the sharp rally last week. The demand for GBP has grown after statements from the UK Prime Minister. Theresa May mentioned that British parliamentaries could vote to postpone Brexit. Right now the quotes are consolidating and a technical correction is possible soon. The local support and resistance levels are 1.32150 and 1.32450. You should open positions from these levels and watch the Brexit news feed closely.

At 11:30 (GMT+2:00) the UK will publish the Construction PMI.

Indicators do not provide precise signals, the price fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.32150, 1.31500, 1.31000
• Resistance levels: 1.32750, 1.33450, 1.34000

If the price fixes below 1.32150, expect the quotes to correct toward 1.31600-1.31400.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.33300-1.33500.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31690
• Open: 1.32756
• % chg. over the last day: +0.97
• Day’s range: 1.32737 – 1.33022
• 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

On Friday USD/CAD was in an aggressive buyout. CAD was weakened against the USD by 1% and the quotes reached the round 1.33000. The Statistical Service of Canada published a weak GDP report. According to it, in the fourth quarter the economic growth slowed to 0.1%, in comparison to the previous value of 0.5%. Right now the quotes are consolidating around 1.32700-1.33050. You should open positions from these levels. The trading instrument has further growth prospects.

The Economic News Feed for 04.03.2019 is calm.

The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which points to the bullish mood.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

• Support levels: 1.32700, 1.32400, 1.32000
• Resistance levels: 1.33050, 1.33500

If the price fixes above 1.33050, expect further growth of USD/CAD. The movement will tend toward 1.33400-1.33600.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward 1.32400-1.32200.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 111.375
• Open: 111.841
• % chg. over the last day: +0.48
• Day’s range: 111.755 – 112.014
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

USD/JPY is consolidating after the long rally last week. The quotes are testing the local levels of 111.750 and 112.000. A technical correction is possible soon. Keep an eye on the US Treasury bonds dynamic. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 04.03.2019 is calm.

The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points toward the correction of USD/JPY quotes.

• Support levels: 111.750, 111.500, 111.200
• Resistance levels: 112.000, 112.500

If the price fixes above the round 112.000, expect the quotes to grow toward 112.400-112.600.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward 111.500-111.300.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

On Friday, the US dollar strengthened against the basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) closed in the positive zone (+0.42%). Investors follow the negotiations between the US and China closely. According to The Wall Street Journal, China and the United States are close to reach trade agreement. Beijing agreed to reduce tariffs and lift restrictions on imports of American cars, agricultural and chemical products. In turn, Washington will cancel the increase in duties on a number of Chinese goods. The US currency is additionally supported by the positive dynamics of the US government bonds yield.

The sentiment of financial market participants has improved in relation to the British pound. Last week, UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, reported that British lawmakers could vote to postpone the Brexit. EU chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has announced that the European Union is ready to help reach an agreement on Brexit. At the moment, the GBP/USD currency pair has become stable.

The “black gold” prices have been recovering after a rapid fall on Friday, March 1. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $56.10 per barrel.

Market Indicators

On Friday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0,62%), #DIA (+0,44%), #QQQ (+0,69%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has continued to grow. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 2.75-2.76%.

– The index of economic activity in the UK construction sector at 11:30 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our recent UGAZ trade returned over 30% in profits in just a few days for our members.  We believe this continued price rotation below $3 will also setup new trading opportunities for skilled traders.  Traders just need to be patient and understand when the opportunity exists in NG for an upside price swing.

The $2.50~2.60 price level has continued to drive historical support in price for over two years now.  Until that level is substantially broken, we believe the opportunities for upside price rotation from near these levels is substantial.  The immediate upside targets for NG are $2.90 and $3.15.  These targets are enough for skilled traders to capture 25~30% returns in the 3x ETFs which is what we did this week in UGAZ. Larger upside opportunities exist with seasonal price pattern, but we are likely 7+ months away from another seasonal rally in NG at this point.

Still, our researchers believe any price level below $2.60 is an excellent buying opportunity with upside targets of $2.90 or higher in NG.  Trading the UGAZ ETF can provide incredible opportunities for skilled traders.

If you are bullish on gold, silver, or miners be sure to take a look at our previous gold prediction because it’s playing our as expected based on the US Dollar.

Read all of our published research posts by visiting TheTechnicalTraders.com. We believe 2019 will be an incredible year of opportunities for skilled traders and have already helped our members find some incredible trades.  Isn’t it time you invested a bit into your future success?

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Like the ‘constructive’ phase the US-China trade war is moving into, Brexit appears to be moving into the ‘agreement’ phase in the Commons.

This begs the question, the Brexit-millstone that has caused severe under- and de-valuation in UK assets possibly coming to an end, how high could Stirling go once Brexit falls off?

First and foremost – where is the Commons at in the Brexit cycle?

The latest amendments have created a ‘runway’ for the House (which was won by Theresa May this week). The 3-part runaway is as follows:

1. March 12 ‘meaningful’ vote on whatever ‘revised’ Brexit can be reached with the EU (unlikely to be anything drastic). If this doesn’t find a majority;

2. The Commons will vote on a “no deal” Brexit. If this is rejected (which is fully expected);

3. The floor will vote on an extension of Article 50.

The runway clearly has a caveat to my point: ‘no deal’ is still on the table as is ‘no Brexit’.

However, in practice, and from a GBP perspective, this week has shown that Theresa May has created a scenario where the parliamentary majority can rule out “no deal” Brexit by the end of March.

As even the most sceptic-of-Eurosceptics will not want a Labour-led second referendum which could arise if a ‘no deal’ looks likely to pass the floor as Europhile Tories would cross the floor. Nor will the most pro-of-Pro-Europhile want to crash out over a deal that might not be perfect in their eyes scuttling the chance of a ‘no Brexit’.

Likely Scenarios

According to the latest consensus, the market believes the most likely course for Brexit will be the ratification of the Prime Minister’s ‘rehashed’ Withdrawal Agreement after a 3-month extension to Article 50 – this sits at ~54%

The probability of a ‘no deal’ has fallen to 10%, the probability of ‘no Brexit’ has fallen to 30%. There are a few other permutations, but in the main, these are the one that matter from a currency perspective.

Mind the Gap – GBP bounce

These scenarios have the GBP wanting to snap to the upside, the mere fact a ‘no deal’ is now the most remote outcome saw GBP shifting significantly higher. This is a clear sign the GBP want to move up. However, it’s more than this, there are clearly investment-based ‘flows’ wanting to enter the UK once a deal is done which suggest a more structural shift over the medium term. It’s not surprising considering the undervaluation of UK assets due to the Brexit-millstone. The fact GDP growth, which has been impacted Brexit no doubt, hasn’t deteriorated to ‘scorched earth‘ levels as the market had priced in the past is a testament to this. A release of Brexit will see a revaluation.

As March progresses and the final outcome of the UK’s separation from the European Union builds watch for entry points on pullbacks. Market consensus shows that most expect a 3% jump in EUR/GBP to around 85.0/20 on basically any deal. GBP/USD is forecasted to move a little harder to $1.375/378.

Timing will be key, but it’s clear the direction for GBP is up, just mind the volatility during the Brexit negotiation intervals.

Article by FPMarkets.com

By FXCC

One temptation FX traders have to avoid, is the compulsion to over trade. Overtrading shouldn’t be confused with revenge trading, which is simply a destructive habit, whereby you might go on full tilt like a gambler, forcing trades that don’t match your: criteria, method and plan, in an attempt to win back recent accumulated losses. Overtrading can be a far more subtle phenomenon, which you mightn’t be aware is actually harming your chances of trading success. It can also prove to be difficult to identify, as you mightn’t experience the same sense of losing your self control and discipline, as you would with revenge trading.

If you’re a day trader, there probably isn’t a set amount of trades you can limit yourself to, on any given day. Each moment in the market is unique, no two days are the same. However, you can place limits on your losses and place circuit breakers into your trading plan, which may help curb your temptation to overtrade. For example, you may decide to only risk 0.5% of your account size per trade and take a decision that any daily losses will be limited to 2.5% per day.

Despite your temptation, that you may believe you can win back your losses, you may have decided that if you suffer five losses in series, the 2.5% mentioned, during the day’s trading sessions, then you stop trading for that day. In doing so, you’ve begun to build into your trading system, various warning systems that’ll alert you to the fact that there are some days when your trading system, despite how refined it might be and how carefully you’ve constructed it, just won’t be conducive with the underlying market conditions. Placing such a circuit breaker into your trading plan, perhaps by use of your MetaTrader platform, can prove to be an excellent physical barrier, to prevent excessive trading.

Due to its subtle nature and difficulty to identify, overtrading can have a negative impact on your trading and account for some time, before you begin to recognise it and become aware of the devastating effect on your trading account and your psychology. As previously referenced, the phenomenon is not necessarily a character and or a personality issue, if you’re religiously sticking to your trading plan. The good news is that once you’ve quickly identified overtrading, the remedies you can put in place, could have immediate benefits. Analysis of your plan, your trading strategy, what if contains and how to adjust it, can help to identify and eradicate overtrading, whilst analysing the prevailing market conditions, could also provide quick remedies.

Identifying the current and prevailing market conditions is essential. Let’s surmise that you’re a swing trader, can you identify how many times the securities you’ve chosen to trade, actually display the characteristics you need in order to take a trade? How often does it happen, perhaps once a week, once a month? If the conditions only occur once a week then why are you trying to force swing trades every day, or twice, perhaps three times a week? Do you need to re-examine your strategy, does it have critical faults, if it’s generating so many false signals?

It’s at this stage of the re-examination of your strategy and self, that you might also begin to recall the basic rules on risk and probability. Again, for the purpose of debate, let’s surmise you’re a swing trader, but rather than patiently wait for the trade criteria to appear on your chart and specific time frame, relating to only one currency pair, you look at several pairs and take a trade whenever the conditions are met.

For example; you might trade: GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY any time, when a combination of four indicators perfectly align to give you an entry signal. But as a swing trading strategy this might be considered excessive. If you are prepared to trade these major currency pairs exclusively and as a swing trader you risk 1% of your account per trade, then you might have 4% exposure at any given time. Many experienced traders would also identify this as overtrading, despite the fact that there’s nothing wrong with having four positions in the market place at any given time. Therefore, you may wish to consider reducing your risk per trade, or reducing the amount of currency pairs you’ll trade.

You have to recognise the existence and address the phenomenon of overtrading before it becomes a debilitating influence on your trading. Through recognising your levels of risk, establishing the probability of your entry conditions being met and re-examining your strategy, you can take immediate remedial action to ensure both your trading confidence and account size doesn’t suffer unnecessary harm.

Article by FXCC