Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 214

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.06.26

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.13982
  • Open: 1.13665
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.26
  • Day’s range: 1.13526 – 1.13723
  • 52 wk range: 1.1111 – 1.2009

Yesterday, the USD recovered some of its losses against the other world currencies. This movement was largely caused by technical factors. Investors began to partially fix positions. The EUR/USD currency pair has updated local minima. At the moment, the trading instrument is consolidating in the range of 1.13400-1.13750. We do not exclude further correction of EUR/USD quotes. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the independence of the Central Bank from US President Donald Trump, who insists on lowering the rates. Currently, more than 75% of financial market participants expect the Fed to reduce the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00% -2.25% at a meeting in July. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 26.06.2019:

  • – Durable Goods Reports (EU) – 00:00 (GMT+3:00);
EUR/USD

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and keeps lowering which points towards a further correction.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.13400, 1.13100, 1.12700
  • Resistance levels: 1.13750, 1.14100, 1.14500

If the price fixes below 1.13400, expect further correction towards 1.13100-1.12800.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow towards 1.14100-1.14400.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.27142
  • Open: 1.26861
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.39
  • Day’s range: 1.26655 – 1.26938
  • 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.3631

The GBP/USD currency pair has moved to decline after a long rally. GBP set new local minimums. At the moment, the GBP/USD quotes are consolidating near the demand zone of 1.26400-1.26650. 1.27150 acts as a “mirror” resistance. The trading instrument has the potential for further correction. Today we recommend to pay attention to economic releases from the USA. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 26.06.2019 is calm.

GBP/USD

The price fixed below 100 MA which points towards the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and keeps lowering which points towards a further correction of GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.26650, 1.26400, 1.26000
  • Resistance levels: 1.27150, 1.27600, 1.27850

If the price fixes below 1.26650, expect further correction towards 1.26300-1.26000.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow towards 1.27400-1.27600.

Registration

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.31794
  • Open: 1.31687
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.05
  • Day’s range: 1.31647 – 1.31952
  • 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

The USD/CAD remains in a long flat. There is no defined trend. At the moment, the following local levels of support and resistance can be distinguished at 1.31600 and 1.32000, respectively. Technical correction is possible soon. You should pay attention to economic releases from the US, as well as the dynamics of oil prices. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 26.06.2019 is calm.

USD/CAD

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0. There are no signals.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line. There are no signals.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.31600, 1.31300, 1.31000
  • Resistance levels: 1.32000, 1.32250, 1.32500

If the price fixes below 1.31600, expect further descend towards 1.31300-1.31000.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct towards 1.32400-1.32600.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 107.289
  • Open: 107.170
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.07
  • Day’s range: 107.098 – 107.502
  • 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

USD/JPY currency pair retreated from monthly lows. At the moment, the technical picture is ambiguous. The quotes are consolidating near the local resistance of 107.500. Mark 107.100 is a key support. The trading tool has the potential for further recovery. We recommend to pay attention to the dynamics of US government bonds. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 26.06.2019 is calm.

USD/JPY

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and above the signal line which gives a strong signal to buy USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 107.100, 106.800, 106.500
  • Resistance levels: 107.500, 107.700, 107.850

If the price fixes above 107.500, expect further growth towards 107.800-108.000.

Alternatively, the quotes can descend towards 106.800-106.600.

by JustForex

The US Dollar Has Moved Away from Local Lows

by JustForex

The US dollar has moved away from local lows after the speech by Fed Chairman Powell. Yesterday, Fed members lowered investors’ expectations for a sharp reduction in rates by half a percentage point at the July meeting. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, said that officials were currently wondering whether the decrease in rates was necessary due to the uncertainty concerning US tariffs, Washington’s conflicts with other world countries, and low inflation. St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, does not consider, in turn, the state of the US economy to be heavy enough to cut the interest rate by 50 basis points at the next meeting in July. According to CME FedWatch Tool, more than 75% of financial market participants believe that the regulator will reduce the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00% -2.25% at a meeting in July. The US dollar index (#DX) closed in the positive zone (+0.17%).

Today, during the Asian trading session, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has left the interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. Investors expect important economic releases from the US. We also recommend following the election of a new leader of the Conservative Party, who will become the head of the UK government as well.

The “black gold” prices show a strong uptrend. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $58.80 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+3:00) crude oil inventories will be published in the US.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, aggressive sales were observed in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.98%), #DIA (-0.71%), #QQQ (-1.72%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is at 2.02-2.03%.

The news feed on 2019.06.26:

– Core durable goods orders in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

We also recommend paying attention to the speech by the Bank of England Governor Carney.

by JustForex

Gold: short-term a little extended, but gains to come in the mid-term

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events June 25, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

In our technical piece from last Friday, we called Gold as a ‘strong buy’ after it broke its multi-year-resistance zone around 1,360/365 USD after a very dovish interpreted Fed last week on Wednesday.

‘Unfortunately,’ the mentioned dip back towards the breakout region around 1,360/365 USD did not occur, but instead, the precious metal continued to storm higher already hitting the first potential target on the upside around 1,440 USD, a high being marked in September 2013 and currently acting as a potential stop-over up to 1,700 USD.

In general, the mode looks very extended with the RSI(14) on a daily-time-frame hitting the highest level since February 2016. From that perspective, the risk-reward for long engagements seems to become a little unattractive and any solid, probably better than expected data set like today’s US Durable Goods at 1330 BST could trigger a corrective move, even though a dip down to 1,360/365 seems very optimistic, we expect first buyers around 1,410 USD already.

On the other hand and based on our experience, we know Gold being quite trend-stable and even if the mode looks quite extended, Gold could continue to trade even higher without looking back.

This seems especially true if the incoming US data continues to disappoint. That said, further gains up to 1,480/490 USD, a high from May 2013, is a serious option, too:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between March 19, 2018, to June 25, 2019). Accessed: June 25, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.

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By Admiral Markets

EURUSD: pair stabilised around the 45th degree

By Alpari.com

Previous:

On Tuesday the 25th of June, trading on the euro closed down. Initial growth with a lack of volume led to a 68-pip drop. The euro was also pushed in this direction by a resurgent dollar during the US session, which was boosted by comments made by FOMC member James Bullard. He said that now was a good time to lower rates as a precautionary measure, but spoke out against a 50-base-point decrease, signalling that one rate reduction would be enough.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained that the FOMC’s outlook remained positive despite increased uncertainty. Many in the FOMC see good reason for stronger stimulus, but also don’t want to overreact to individual data releases. Powell noted that unemployment is low, the economy is growing, and inflation is approaching its target level.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 11:00 Switzerland: ZEW survey – expectations (Jun).
  • 11:30 UK: BBA mortgage approvals (May).
  • 15:30 US: durable goods orders (May), goods trade balance (May).
  • 17:30 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (21 Jun).

EURUSD H1Current situation:

The euro dropped to the 45th degree just as expected. After the correction to 1.1344, the pair stabilised at around the 1.1353 mark. Taking into account the pricing model and the status of the hourly indicators, I’ve concluded that we should expect the pair to consolidate within a range of 1.1344 to 1.1380 today. If the rate closes the day below the balance line, we can expect the rate to drop to 1.1331. I can’t see it dropping any lower than 1.1300.

Still, we can’t be sure, because a few negative words about China from Donald Trump could be enough to sink some of the risker assets. A recovery to 1.14 will be positive for the bulls. There’s no important news for the euro coming out today.

By Alpari.com

 

Natural Gas Sets Up Bottom Pattern

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

In less than two weeks, our expectation that Natural Gas would move lower into our “basing zone”, between $2.00 and $2.20, has come true.  Natural Gas has fallen into our expected basing/bottoming zone and traders should be looking to target low price entries as the extended setup of this base takes place.

You can read our original research post regarding our Natural Gas analysis from June 10, 2019: NATURAL GAS MOVES INTO BASING ZONE

It is our belief that anytime Natural Gas falls below $2.20, or lower, traders should consider jumping into NG related ETFs or NG future as this bottoming zone will likely push NG back above $2.35~$2.40 fairly quickly.  Historically, any price move to levels closer to $2.00 have been very strong support for Natural Gas and this early basing pattern is setting up for an incredible opportunity for traders.

Ideally, we are expecting an upside the month of July to represent continue basing/bottoming in NG where we expect NG prices to rotate between $2.00 and $2.75.  There is a moderate change that NG prices may attempt a move above $2.75 after July 20.

We believe August will result in a sideways downward sloping price pattern that may last only through the first 10 to 15+ days of August.  The month of August is typically relatively muted in terms of price trend but includes greater price volatility – bigger price bar ranges.

The big breakout move will likely begin to happen in late August or early September.  September, October, and November are all historically strong months for NG.  September is the strongest month historically, October represents about half the upside strength of September and November represents, again, about half the upside strength of October.

Overall, this basing/bottoming pattern in NG is something skilled traders do not want to lose focus of.  The opportunity at these sub $2.25 levels is incredible if traders are able to time their entries and plan for the August/September upside price launch.  Looking back at historical price patterns, we could begin an upside price bias (a slower moving upside price trend) in early July.  After NG hammers our a bottom near this $2.00 level and settles near support, the new trend should become evident as an upside price bias before the August/September liftoff.

This Daily NG chart shows the RED and CYAN Fibonacci projection levels (near $2.18 and $2.28).  These levels will act as both a floor and ceiling for the future price as the basing pattern continues.  Any breakdown in price below $2.18 would be a great entry level for skilled traders.  There is a potential that price could drift a bit lower, possibly down to near $2.00 over the next few weeks, but we believe the basing/bottoming setup is beginning and support will be found above $2.00.

This Weekly NG chart shows a BLUE rectangle that highlights the support level identified by our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system.  Right now, this support level is between $2.10 and $2.30.  These Fibonacci downward price projection points on the Weekly chart represent expected levels/targets for downward price SUPPORT to form.  In other words, from the last price peak, price should move lower and target these Fibonacci projected targets where they will likely stall, bottom or attempt to find support – potentially setting up a new price “trough”.

We believe the next upside price move will happen between now and July 25th where NG will move from the $2.15 level to somewhere near $2.55 to $2.65.  After that move, we expect the price of NG to stall briefly before beginning another leg higher towards $3.00 or higher.  Our expectations of that last leg are that it may begin near mid-August and really begin to accelerate as we get closer/into September.

Remember, this is a very early set up – we still have 40+ days of expected basing/bottoming before any real upside potential is likely.  Now is the time to trade this as short term 4~8% price objectives taking very skilled trades near the low price levels and targeting quick profits.  As we enter July and move into August, we suggest traders switch from the short-term scalping mode and begin to consider the September, October & November historical price patterns to truly understand the upside potential.

Take a look at that huge move in 2018 over those same three months (September, October, November) in the chart above.  That move started from the $2.65 level and ran all the way up to near $5.00.  The same thing could happen again this year with price originating from a $2.00 basing level.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in the energy sector but in metals, and stock indexes and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand guide and charts. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, Nat Gas is oversold and showing signs of a bounce.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Take a look at my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen

TheTechnicalTraders.com

Next Bull and Bear Markets are Now Set Up

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Sharing market analysis and my opinions every day is far from easy and sometimes I feel like a song on repeat. My focus and goal has always been to try to alert fellow traders and investors of what is unfolding now in the financial markets around the globe because it appears we are about to experience another financial life-changing event much like the 2000 stock market top, and the late 2007 bull market top which will play out over the next 24+ months

If you lost money during the last bear market then you need a new game plan to take advantage of falling prices and the solution is not just to by gold, silver, and miners. In fact, you could lose a lot buying and holding them over the next year if you are not careful. We all know what the precious metals sector did during the last equities bear market (they crashed 64% with the stock market before starting to rally).

2007 Bull Market Top – SP500 and XAU Gold Miners Index

From a technical analysis standpoint, we are still a long ways away from a confirmed bear market. We do need a see a rather larger drop to break the December low we saw in the SP500 index. But, each month more warning signs pop up to confirm we would be in a full-blown bear market b the end of 2019.

Miners Are Outperforming US Equities – Top Is Near!

Last month I talked about how I have been waiting for gold miners to start outperforming the US stocks market. Once miners start outperforming in a big way (just like we saw in 2007), we know the stock market is topping out and something really bad is about to happen.

In the last couple of weeks, the gold miners index is up over 16% while the SP500 is up only 6%, this feels like the start-of-the-end if you know what I mean.

It’s a known fact that stock market prices lead earnings, news, and the economy. Stock prices start to flatten, chop sideways, and sell off typically 3-6 months or more before negative data starts to become daily headline news.

I have been predicting a top for form since early 2018 with the book I co-authored called “The Crash of 2019 and 2020 – How You Can Profit” only available to subscribers of the Wealth Building Newsletter.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand guide and charts. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, the financial markets including commodities move in a wave like pattern and you want to own them and be to long when they are rising, and in cash or sell short (inverse ETF) when they are falling.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.

Chris Vermeulen

TheTechnicalTraders.com

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 25.06.2019 (USDCAD, AUDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCAD has tested the support level while trading downwards and formed Hammer reversal pattern. The current situation implies that the reversal pattern and a sideways movement may indicate a possible rebound from the channel’s downside border and a new growth with the target at 1.3400. However, we shouldn’t ignore a possibility that the instrument may break the support level and continue its decline to reach 1.3100.

USDCAD_Анализ японских свечей
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed Shooting Star reversal pattern while testing the channel’s upside border. The current situation implies that the instrument may rebound to resume falling towards 0.6838. However, we shouldn’t ignore a possibility that the instrument may break the level and continue growing to reach 0.7000.

AUDUSD_Анализ японских свечей

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 25.06.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6958; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6940 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7025. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6910. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6825.

AUDUSD_Анализ индикатора Ишимоку
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6640; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6615 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6710. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6575. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6505.

NZDUSD_Анализ индикатора Ишимоку
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3184; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.3185 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.3045. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.3235. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3325. After breaking Triangle’s downside border and fixing below 1.3140, the price may continue moving downwards.

USDCAD_Анализ индикатора Ишимоку
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.06.25

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.13704
  • Open: 1.13982
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.13
  • Day’s range: 1.13925 – 1.14119
  • 52 wk range: 1.1111 – 1.2009

EUR/USD keeps showing a positive trend. EUR reached 1.14000. USD remains under pressure after the Fed meeting. Current local levels of support and resistance are 1.13750 and 1.14100. Financial markets participants are waiting for a meeting of the leaders of the United States and China during the G20 summit, which will be held June 28-29 in Osaka. In the near future, technical correction of EUR/USD quotes is possible. Open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 25.06.2019:

  • – Consumer Trust Index CB (US) – 17:00 (GMT+3:00);
  • – New Real Estate Sales (US) – 17:00 (GMT+3:00);
EUR/USD

The price fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points towards a correction of EUR/USD.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.13750, 1.13400, 1.13100
  • Resistance levels: 1.14100, 1.14500

If the price fixes above 1.14100, consider buying EUR/USD, the price will move towards 1.14500-1.14700.

Alternatively, the price can correct towards 1.13400-1.13100.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.27328
  • Open: 1.27142
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.10
  • Day’s range: 1.27142 – 1.27554
  • 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.3631

GBP/USD stabilized after a long rally. At the moment, GBP / USD quotes are in lateral movement. The trading tool tests local support and resistance levels: 1.27150 and 1.27600, respectively. In the near future technical correction is not excluded. Today we recommend to pay attention to economic releases from the USA. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 25.06.2019 is calm.

GBP/USD

The price fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and keeps rising which gives a strong signal to buy GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line started to cross the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.27150, 1.26750, 1.26450
  • Resistance levels: 1.27600, 1.28000

If the price fixes above 1.27600, expect further growth towards 1.28000.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct towards 1.26750-1.26500.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.32137
  • Open: 1.31794
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.12
  • Day’s range: 1.31713 – 1.31962
  • 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

CAD keeps trading in a flat. The technical picture is ambiguous. A correction is possible soon. The local support and resistance are 1.31750 and 1.32150. Keep an eye on the US economic reports and the oil quotes dynamics. Open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 25.06.2019 is calm. At 15:30 (GMT+3:00) Canada will publish a wholesales report.

USD/CAD

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0. There are no signals at the moment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.31750, 1.31500, 1.31200
  • Resistance levels: 1.32150, 1.32500, 1.33000

If the price fixes below 1.31750, expect further descend towards 1.31400-1.31200.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow towards 1.32500-1.32700.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 107.304
  • Open: 107.289
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.03
  • Day’s range: 106.778 – 107.409
  • 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

The USD/JPY once again started to decline. Trading instrument updated local minima. The demand for “safe” assets remains at a fairly high level due to the growth of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. At the moment, the USD/JPY quotes are consolidating in the range of 106.800-107.100, respectively. Trading instrument has the potential to further decline. We recommend to pay attention to the dynamics of the yield of US government securities. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 25.06.2019 is calm.

USD/JPY

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line which gives a strong signal to sell USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 106.800, 106.500
  • Resistance levels: 107.100, 107.400, 107.700

If the price fixes below 106.800, expect further descend towards 106.500-106.300.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow towards 107.400-107.600.

by JustForex

Best Recession Indicator Flashed Red – What it means for Gold, S&P 500, & Copper?

Best Recession Indicator Eurodollar Index Flashed Red

What next for S&P 500 & Gold?

The most important index, the Eurodollar Index, is one index that no one is paying attention to, and it just turned RED. The last time it turned red was one month before the US Federal Reserve (Fed) started cutting interest rates in 2007, and one month before the fed started cutting in 2001. In both cases, the US entered a recession within six months. How do we know no one is paying attention to the Eurodollar Index?

Google Says No One Is Paying Attention

You probably have never seen the coming chart before. When you do a Google search on Eurodollar Index…What happens? You only get 2,410 search results on Google. Think about that for a second. There are tens of thousands of investment professionals around the world, maybe even hundreds of thousands, there hundreds of millions of retail investors, and yet when you do a very specific search on the Eurodollar Index, less than 3,000 searches show up.

Then when you look at news articles, the media isn’t paying attention to the Eurodollar Index either. Only 2 news articles have been written on it.

Yet, “The volume in Eurodollars (traded at the CME) is beyond anything you gold and crude oil can comprehend. Consider the following volume figures for 2012: Gold – 43.8 million contracts, Crude Oil – 134.2 million contracts. Eurodollars – 425.1 million contracts”

Something Broke in the Markets

When you read about the markets you hear about: Valuation metrics, like P/E or P/S.

But this doesn’t help you, the investor, because things can get much more expensive than investors think or they can get go much lower than they expected, which many commodity investors from 2012 to 2016 were caught up in value traps.

This is why we look for the sweet spot to avoid the value strap by not being too early. In order to get the capital flow coming in, we are looking for momentum to come back into the sector and/or stock.

Let’s have a look here. This is the Eurodollar Dollar Index going back to 1999. It really helps give us the temperature of the banking system.

“Somewhere out there in the banking system – There is some bank or multiple banks that cannot get funding.”

Going back to 1999, every time, AFTER the index went from a trend of falling for a number of years, bottomed, and flipped to start accelerating again ABOVE the moving average this was a clear warning SIGN that something is not good in the bank deposit markets.

Pay attention here. In December 2000, when the Eurodollar Index broke above the long-term averages, its momentum only further accelerated from there before the crashed the ensued from there. In August 2007, when the Index broke above the long-term averages, and this was the point the acceleration took resulting in the next recession which brings us to today.

So where are we today? We are back to where we were in 2001 and 2007. The Index has broken above the long-term averages.

Why is this important?

Eurodollar Index – Click to zoom in

Music Has Stopped

It all comes down to liquidity. Back in July 2007, the CEO at the time of Citigroup, Chuck Prince made this now infamous quote. “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get and dance. We’re still dancing” (Ft.com)

Just one month later, as we mentioned previously, in August 2007, momentum for the Eurodollar Index accelerated back above the long-term averages, which highlights the music has stopped.

Voices of the Past

In every instance that the Eurodollar Index accelerated, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates.  In January 2001, the US Federal Reserve made a “surprise” rate cut before the recession started. Looking forward to September 2007, one month after the Eurodollar Index Accelerated higher, the US Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in 4 four years. Now that the momentum accelerated higher, we shouldn’t be surprised that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and it’s not because it’s a good sign.

Today: Fed vs Everyone Else

And yet today, the Fed says it won’t cut, until 2020. Yet we know from history that when Eurodollar Index accelerates above its long-term momentum, the Fed Funds rate falls, which it is doing today, and within a month the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Why? Because something bad happened. Will it be tariffs? Who knows? But something has broken and the US Federal Reserve will need to act.

Recession Within 6 Months

In November 2000, the Fed Funds rate was 6.51%, a month later in December 2000, the Eurodollar Index accelerated above the long-term averages and by May 2001 the US was in a recession.  Then in July 2007, the Fed Funds rate was 5.26%, a month later in August 2007, the Eurodollar Index accelerated above the long-term averages, and by December 2007 it was the start of the US recession.  Fast forward to today and the Fed Funds started falling in May after peaking, then in June, the Eurodollar Index accelerated higher breaking above the long-term moving averages.  That puts a recession starting in the range of October to November of this year.

S&P 500 & Gold in 2000

As the Eurodollar Index accelerated at the end of 2000, the S&P 500 peaked higher initially before stumbling into a 2-year bear market. Gold blasted higher initially, then stumbled lower for the first half of 2000, before more than doubling from the inflection point.

S&P 500 & Gold in 2008

As the Eurodollar Index accelerated in 2008, the S&P 500 peaked higher initially before stumbling into the 2008 bear market. Gold, on the other hand, blasted higher for a number of months just like silver. Both gold and silver fell late 2008, but gold remained above the August 2007 inflection point.

Now You Know

  • Momentum has now accelerated confirming the value trap is now over for the Eurodollar Index. It is now in motion, and if history repeats, the S&P 500 wins briefly before losing over the next six to twelve months.
  • Gold won in both 2001 and 2008.
  • Silver is a mixed bag of beans. Interest rates have a high probability of being cut next month, the music will stop, and the excitement is only getting started. Now you know.

About the Author:

Paul Farrugia, BCom. Paul is the President & CEO of First Macro Capital. He helps his clients take advantage of cycle opportunities across all sectors and asset classes, for the long-term. He provides a checklist to find winning gold and silver mining producer stocks, to take advantage of the commodity cycle.

Disclaimer:

The information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is not designed to meet your financial situation – we are not investment advisors, nor do we give personalized investment advice. The opinions expressed herein are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. It may become outdated, and there is no obligation to update any such information.