Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 162

Murrey Math Lines 03.10.2019 (USDCHF, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, USDCHF is still moving upwards. In this case, the price is expected to continue growing to reach the resistance at 5/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue falling towards the support at 1/8.

USDCHF_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue moving upwards.

USDCHF_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, XAUUSD is consolidating. In this case, the price is expected to continue growing to reach the resistance at 7/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the downside again. After that, the instrument may resume falling towards the support at 1/8.

GOLD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its growth.

GOLD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.10.03

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.09330
  • Open: 1.09602
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.26
  • Day’s range: 1.09504 – 1.09649
  • 52 wk range: 1.0884 – 1.1623

The USD continued to lose ground relative to currency majors. The EUR/USD quotes updated the local highs again. Greenback was pressured by weak labor market data from ADP. Currently, the EUR/USD currency pair is consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are: 1.09400 and 1.09650, respectively. A trading instrument has the potential for further growth. We are expecting important economic releases. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 03.10.2019:

  • – A number of indicators on business activity (GER/EU) – 10:55/11:00 (GMT+3:00);
  • – Initial Jobless Claims (US) – 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
  • – ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index (US) – 17:00 (GMT+3:00);
EUR/USD

Indicators signal the strength of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the oversold zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.09400, 1.09050, 1.08800
  • Resistance levels: 1.09650, 1.09900, 1.10250

If the price consolidates above 1.09650, expect further correction toward 1.09900-1.10200.

Alternatively, the quotes can drop toward 1.09000.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.22933
  • Open: 1.22988
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.03
  • Day’s range: 1.22763 – 1.23107
  • 52 wk range: 1.1995 – 1.3385

GBP continues to trade in a long flat. There is no defined trend. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are 1.22600 and 1.23200, respectively. GBP/USD quotes can decline further. The pound remains under pressure due to uncertainty around Brexit, as well as weak business activity releases in the UK. Positions must be opened from key levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+3:00), the composite business activity index in the UK will be published.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not give accurate signalы: the price crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to the 0 mark. There are no signals at the moment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.22600, 1.22100
  • Resistance levels: 1.23200, 1.23750, 1.24150

If the price consolidates below 1.22600, expect further descend in GBP/USD quotes toward 1.22200-1.22000.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.23600-1.23800.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.32217
  • Open: 1.33252
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.81
  • Day’s range: 1.33145 – 1.33344
  • 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

Yesterday, aggressive purchases were observed on the USD/CAD currency pair. The quotes grew by 100 points. CAD updated the key extremes. The trading tool found resistance at 1.33300. Mark 1.33000 is already a mirror support. Pressure on the Canadian dollar was caused by a collapse in oil prices. We do not exclude further growth of the USD/CAD currency pair. We recommend paying attention to the news background from the USA. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 03.10.2019 is calm.

USD/CAD

Indicators signal the strength of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.33000, 1.32800, 1.32550
  • Resistance levels: 1.33300, 1.33500

If the price consolidates above 1.33300, expect further growth toward 1.33500-1.33700.

Alternatively, the quotes could decrease toward 1.32800-1.32600.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 107.726
  • Open: 107.178
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.54
  • Day’s range: 106.965 – 107.287
  • 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

The USD/JPY currency pair continues to show negative dynamics. During yesterday’s and today’s trading, the drop in quotations exceeded 70 points. The trading instrument reached a round level of 107,000. Mark 107.350 is already a mirror resistance. Demand for USD weakened after weak economic releases. We do not exclude a further decline in the USD / JPY currency pair. We recommend that you pay attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 03.10.2019 is calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators signal the strength of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is located near the overbought zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 107.000, 106.600
  • Resistance levels: 107.350, 107.650, 107.900

If the price consolidates below the round level of 107,000, expect a further drop toward 106.700-106.500.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 107.600-107.800.

by JustForex

The Greenback Continues to Lose Ground

by JustForex

The US dollar continues to weaken against a basket of world currencies. The dollar index (#DX) has updated local lows again and closed the trading session in the red zone. Investors are concerned about the impact of the trade war between Washington and Beijing on the state of the economy. Earlier, the US reported a sharp decline in economic activity in the country’s manufacturing sector. Labor statistics from ADP were negative. Financial market participants are also worried about the uncertainty concerning Brexit and the growing risks of impeachment by US President Donald Trump. These events support the demand for safe assets.

Today, weak data on economic activity in the Eurozone and the UK were published. In September, Markit composite PMI in the Eurozone fell from 51.9 to 50.1. The composite index on economic activity in the UK slowed down from 50.2 to 49.3. Investors expect the release of important statistics on the US economy. These releases may have a significant impact on the dynamics of currency majors in the short term.

The “black gold” prices continue to show negative dynamics. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $52.50 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, aggressive sales were observed in the US stock markets: #SPY (-1.77%), #DIA (-1.80%), #QQQ (-1.72%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield shows negative dynamics. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.57-1.58%.

The Economic News Feed for 03.10.2019:
  • – Initial jobless claims in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
  • – ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

EURUSD: markets preparing for the NFP report

By Alpari.com

On Wednesday the 2nd of October, trading on the euro closed up at 1.0959. The euro’s rise was helped along by weak US data. The ADP employment report missed expectations, along with the ISM manufacturing index for September, which dropped from 49.1 to 47.8.

The index fell over investor fears of an economic slowdown. US shares dropped in response to a decline in US bond yields. US10Y bond yields dropped to 1.5824%.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:50 France: Markit services PMI (Sep).
  • 10:55 Germany: Markit services PMI (Sep).
  • 11:00 Eurozone: Markit services PMI (Sep).
  • 11:30 UK: Markit services PMI (Sep).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: PPI (Aug), retail sales (Aug).
  • 15:30 US: initial jobless claims (27 Sep).
  • 16:45 US: Markit services PMI (Sep).
  • 17:00 US: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Sep), factory orders (Aug).

EURUSD H1Current situation:

On Wednesday, just as on Tuesday, the EURUSD pair reversed upwards on the back of US data. The volume gap from the 30th of September and 1st of October was filled. For the bulls, the road towards 1.10 is now open. The pair has exited the channel and the bulls are now dominating the hourly timeframe. The only thing that can stop them now is Friday’s NFP report. There’s a support at 1.0922. Let’s also not forget that there’s a lot of conflicting background noise (Brexit, US tariffs on European goods, loose ECB monetary policy, and the broadly weaker US dollar). Any of these could cause a sharp reversal.

We’re forecasting sideways movement ahead of the release of the NFP report. Since the manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations, reaction to the NFP will be strong. This means that markets need to prepare for it. The ISM non-manufacturing index for September is coming out at 17:00. The service industry has a bigger influence on the market than the manufacturing sector.

By Alpari.com

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 02.10.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 1.0940, EURUSD is consolidating near the highs. Possibly, the pair may expand the range towards 1.0943 and then form a new descending structure to reach 1.0924. Later, the market may break the range to the downside and continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.0907.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After reaching the downside target at 1.2205, GBPUSD has completed the correction towards 1.2330. Possibly, today the pair may fall to break 1.2250 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 1.2182.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching the upside target at 1.0000, USDCHF has completed the quick descending correction towards 0.9925; right now, it is consolidating near the lows. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to break this range to the upside and grow with the target at 0.9995.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After reaching 108.40, USDJPY has formed the quick descending correction towards 107.70; right now, it is consolidating near the lows. The main scenario implies that the price may continue moving upwards. Today, the pair may reach the target at 108.25.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is moving upwards to reach 0.6727. After that, the instrument may start another decline towards 0.6699 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.6755.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still correcting upwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 65.45 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 64.50.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD has completed another descending wave at 1.3200 to finish Flag correctional pattern; right now, it is consolidating around 1.3216. If later the price breaks this range to the upside at 1.3228, the instrument may start a new growth with the target at 1.3300; if to the downside at 1.3200 – continue the correction towards 1.3180 (an alternative scenario).

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After reaching the downside target at 1463.55, Gold has already formed two ascending impulses. Possibly, today the pair may start another correction to each 1469.50 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 1496.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent is still moving downwards. Today, the pair may grow to reach 60.46 and then form a new descending structure towards 58.35. Later, the market may start another growth with the first target at 64.50.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After expanding the range towards 8500.00, BTCUSD is falling to break 8150.00. Later, the market may continue the downtrend towards 7825.00.

BITCOIN

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 02.10.2019 (GBPUSD, EURJPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has almost reached a very significant correctional level, 61.8% fibo at 1.2197. If the pair is able to reach the next short-term correctional level, 76.0% fibo at 1.2108, it may try to test the low at 1.1958 and once again enter the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.2019 and 1.1788 respectively. However, in case of a new rising impulse, the targets will be the high at 1.2582 and then 61.8% fibo at 1.2710.

GBPUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the convergence made the pair start a new correction. The rising impulse tried to reach 38.2% fibo at 1.2349, but was forced to pull back. The next rising impulse may reach the above-mentioned level and then continue growing towards 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo 1.2393, 1.2437, and 1.2491 respectively. The key support is the low at 1.2205.

GBPUSD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after slowing down its decline at 61.8% fibo, EURJPY has formed a triangle consolidation range, which means that the pair is about to start a new rising wave. The key upside target may be the high at 120.01 and 61.8% fibo at 120.50. However, one shouldn’t exclude a possibility of further decline towards 76.0% fibo at 116.86 in the short-term. In this case, the instrument may later fall to reach the low at 115.86 or even deeper.

EURJPY_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the price started a new short-term correction, which has already reached 38.2% fibo. The next correctional wave may be heading towards 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 118.72, 119.02, and 119.39 respectively.

EURJPY_H1

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Economics of Geopolitics: Why US Senate Targeted Philippines and Other Countries

By Dan Steinbock

The new Senate bill targeting the Philippines and some other countries – Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia – is fueled by controversial political and economic agendas that have caused turmoil since the 1980s.

For some time, US Senators Richard Durbin (Dem, Illinois) and Patrick Leahy (Dem, Vermont) had pushed for an amendment in the 2020 state and foreign operations appropriations bill by the US Senate appropriations committee. Essentially, the amendment would deny entry of Philippine government officials involved in the detention of Philippine opposition Senator Leila de Lima.

Last week, the US Senate panel approved the amendment. Durbin considers De Lima’s detention a “politically motivated imprisonment.” According to Philippine government, De Lima was arrested and detained in 2017 for allegedly asking money from drug convicts to fund her senatorial campaign and for allowing the drug trade to continue in the national penitentiary while she was the justice secretary. Despite evidence, she claims the cases against her are “politically motivated.”

Reportedly, the Senate amendment also called for the same action against officials of the Egyptian government for the “wrongful detention” of a US citizen and government officials of Turkey, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia.

In the Philippines, the provision can be seen as part of the continuing political backlash following the 2016 Duterte election triumph, and the consequent meltdown of the Liberal Party (LP). Usually heavy losses trigger reassessment, which can rejuvenate a political party and renew its leadership. Yet, that did not happen. As LP failed to attract voters in the Philippines, some of its leaders began pressure campaigns in the US and EU, to raise their diminished political capital at home.

In the past year, these campaigns have included frequent-flyer visits to Washington. In April, they resulted in the condemnation of human rights violations in the Philippines by senator Durbin, along with senators Edward Markey (Dem, Massachusetts), Marco Rubio (Rep, Florida), Marsha Blackburn (Rep, Tennessee) and Chris Coons (Dem, Delaware). The same resolution also called on the Philippine government to drop all charges against [CEO] Maria Ressa and [her online publication] Rappler.”

What’s behind the stated concerns for human rights and democracy?

Politics of campaign finance

LP figures appeal to Senators. Senators rely on campaign finance. The senators behind the Philippines amendment, in particular, get their political money mainly from lobbyists, defense contractors, finance, and especially large individual donors, according to congressional research.

In turn, the financial heavy-weights that drive US politics – Soros and his Open Society Foundations, Koch brothers, Adelsons, Mercers, Steyer, Singer and others – have their own economic agenda, which has geopolitical implications.

With an estimated net worth of $1.5 to $3 million, Richard Durbin is the influential Senate Democratic Whip, who has been haunted by allegations of conflicts of interest. Leahy is a senior senator, who was first elected already in 1974, while Ed Markey is a senior Democratic senator, who has been challenged by Joe Kennedy III for the Senate seat. Both Leahy and Markey have a net worth of $2 to $4 million. Former beauty pageant, Marsha Blackburn is a junior senator and ultra-conservative Tea Party Republican, who vice-chaired Trump’s presidential transition team and nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize for talks with North Korea. Democratic junior senator Chris Coons has a net worth of $8 to $12 million.

The ultra-conservative Marco Rubio has claimed that De Lima has been in prison on “bogus charges.” Former Senator Trillanes, who began his political career with a failed coup d’etat attempt in 2003, met with Rubio already in fall 2017. Having previously criticized President Duterte’s war on drugs, Rubio said the two also discussed corruption, human rights, and particularly the US-Philippine alliance.

After the failed 2016 campaign, Rubio has recently profiled himself as a conservative human rights defender and democracy promoter. He is for regime change in Venezuela, Hong Kong and China, Iran and Russia. His financial debacles are notorious. With net worth less than $500,000 but outsized political ambitions, critics claim he is dependent on and thus useful to ultra-rich donors, particularly his key funder – the notorious Paul Singer.

There are no free lunches. What kind of economic returns do these funders expect from their political investments?

Vulture capitalists

With a net worth of $3.5 billion, Paul Singer sees himself as a philanthropist, who promotes the rule of law, democracy and LGBTQ rights. His hedge fund Elliott Management Corporation (EMC) specializes in distressed debt acquisitions. As a pioneer “vulture capitalist,” he buys up sovereign bonds on the cheap and then goes after countries for unpaid debts.

After the ‘70s energy crises, many fragile economies borrowed far more than they could repay. In the 1980s, that led some 50 economies to default or to restructure their debt. In Latin America, it caused a lost decade, but it also penalized Poland, South Africa and parts of Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam and the Philippines.

In vulture capitalists’ business, such crises are considered great opportunities, despite the great economic losses and human tragedies in the target countries.

In the mid-1990s, Singer purchased sovereign debt from nations in or near default, such as Peru and Argentina, and Congo-Brazzaville. Next the International Monetary Fund (IMF) rushed in to “help” imposing budget cuts and heavy austerity measures, forcing the governments to renegotiate what they owed.

In the past, Singer has targeted countries mainly in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. As prosperity levels are rising in Asia, Singer seems to be looking at targets in the East.

Distressing implications

In the Philippines, many see the senators’ bill as the net effect of the US visits by a slate of opposition leaders who no longer enjoy significant support in the Philippines and thus lean onto Washington to boost their deflated political capital in Manila.

Second, the Senate provision is a part of a larger package that calls for same action against officials of Turkey, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia over “wrongful detention of locally employed staff of a US diplomatic mission or a US citizen or national.” The provision protects US citizens and dual citizens, such as Ressa and some other key figures. The implication seems to be that the sovereignty of other countries is secondary.

Third, according to US Senator Lindsey Graham, chair of the Senate state and foreign operations appropriations subcommittee, the bill seeks to fund “diplomatic and development efforts worldwide, provide security assistance for our allies around the globe.” Projecting US power across the globe, the bill would seem to go far beyond US sovereignty.

In the process, the accumulated evidence against De Lima’s violations, Ressa’s tax challenges and abuses in other cases has been shunned, critics argue.

One net effect is that the ongoing political moves may be paving new ways for controversial financial interests to exploit rising Asian prosperity.

About the Author:

Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and internationally recognized expert of the multipolar world economy. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institute for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net/     

The original commentary was published by The Manila Times on September 30, 2019

 

 

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.10.02

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.08982
  • Open: 1.09330
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.32
  • Day’s range: 1.09273 – 1.09414
  • 52 wk range: 1.0884 – 1.1623

Yesterday, the greenback weakened against a basket of world currencies. EUR / USD quotes updated local highs. The US dollar came under pressure after the release of weak statistics. In September, manufacturing activity in the United States fell at the fastest pace in 10 years. Currently, EUR/USD quotes are consolidating in the range of 1.09100-1.09450. A trading instrument has the potential for further recovery. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

At 15:15 (GMT+3:00), investors will evaluate preliminary data on the US labor market from ADP.

EUR/USD

Indicators do not provide accurate signals: the price is consolidating near 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.09100, 1.08800, 1.08500
  • Resistance levels: 1.09450, 1.09650, 1.09900

If the price consolidates above 1.09450, expect further correction toward 1.09800-1.10000.

Alternatively, the quotes can drop toward 1.08800-1.08700.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.22891
  • Open: 1.22933
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.02
  • Day’s range: 1.22550 – 1.23097
  • 52 wk range: 1.1995 – 1.3385

The technical picture on the GBP/USD currency pair is still ambiguous. There is no defined trend. Sterling remains under pressure due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to submit to the EU his proposals before the end of the week. In particular, alternative regulation of the backstop issue. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are 1.22550 and 1.23200, respectively. We do not exclude a further drop in GBP/USD quotes. Positions must be opened from key levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+3:00), the UK will publish a business activity index construction sector.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not provide accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near 0 mark. There are no signals at the moment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.22550, 1.22000
  • Resistance levels: 1.23200, 1.23750, 1.24150

If the price consolidates below 1.22550, expect further drop in quotes toward 1.22000.

Alternatively,the quotes can grow toward 1.23600-1.23800.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.32424
  • Open: 1.32217
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.17
  • Day’s range: 1.32059 – 1.32236
  • 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

The USD/CAD currency pair went down after a long consolidation. The trading tool has updated key extremes. At the moment, USD/CAD quotes are consolidating near the local support level of 1.32100. Mark 1.32350 is already a mirror resistance. The technical picture indicates a further decline in the USD/CAD currency pair. Today we recommend paying attention to economic releases from the USA, as well as to the dynamics of oil quotes. Open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 02.10.2019:

USD/CAD

Indicators signal the strength of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.32100, 1.31800, 1.31500
  • Resistance levels: 1.32350, 1.32600, 1.32750

If the price consolidates below 1.32100, expect a further drop toward 1.31800-1.31600.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.32500-1.32700.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 108.080
  • Open: 107.726
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.30
  • Day’s range: 107.644 – 107.894
  • 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

Sales prevail on the USD/JPY currency pair. The trading tool has updated local lows. Demand for the US dollar weakened after the release of weak data on manufacturing activity in the country. At the moment, USD/JPY quotes are consolidating. The key range is 107.650-107.900. The yen has the potential for further growth relative to the greenback. We recommend that you pay attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 02.10.2019 is calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price is consolidating near 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 107.650, 107.350, 107.000
  • Resistance levels: 107.900, 108.150, 108.450

If the price consolidates below 107.650, expect a further drop in the USD/JPY quotes. The potential movement is to 107.400-107.200.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 108.150-108.400.

by JustForex

The Dollar Index Closed in the Red Zone. Downward Potential Is Still High

by JustForex

During yesterday’s trading, the US dollar weakened against currency majors. The dollar index (#DX) moved away from local highs and closed the trading session in the red zone (-0.25%). The greenback was under pressure after weak economic releases. In September, manufacturing PMI in the US fell at the fastest pace in 10 years. Most financial market participants believe that the Fed will continue the cycle of lowering interest rates.

The Aussie reached multi-year lows after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. The British pound is still under pressure due to the uncertainty concerning Brexit. Boris Johnson plans to submit to the EU his proposals before the end of the week. In particular, alternative regulation of the backstop issue. We recommend following current information on this issue.

The “black gold” prices have been recovering after a significant drop since the beginning of this week. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $54.05 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there were sales in the US stock markets: #SPY (-1.19%), #DIA (-1.37%), #QQQ (-0.82%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has been declining again. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.63-1.64%.

The Economic News Feed for 02.10.2019:
  • – Construction PMI in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
  • – ADP nonfarm employment change at 15:15 (GMT+3:00).

 

We also recommend paying attention to the speeches by the FOMC representatives.

by JustForex

EURUSD: market participants looking for direction

By Alpari.com

On Tuesday the 1st of October, trading on the euro closed up. The pair spent most of its time in a sideways trend. During the day, the rising crosses pushed the EURUSD pair up to 1.0908 following a rise in German 10-year bond yields. The pair shot up from 1.0885 to 1.0943 on the back of weak US data.

The ISM manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.1 to 47.8 (its lowest value since June 2009). Any value below 50 is typically indicative of a slowdown in manufacturing activity.

The S&P500 index has dropped by 1.25%. US10Y bond yields dropped by 7.79% to 1.61%.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 11:30 UK: Markit construction PMI (Sep).
  • 15:15 US: ADP employment change (Sep).
  • 16:00 US: Fed’s Harker speech.
  • 17:30 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (27 Sep).
  • 17:50 US: Fed’s Williams speech.

EURUSD H1Current situation:

Since the 26th of September, the euro has been fluctuating amid mixed data. The price has been tending downwards within a complex structure. The growth on Tuesday ran out of steam at the upper boundary of the channel. We were expecting this level to be broken on the 30th of September, but the bulls were beaten back to 1.0885.

The last two days have seen near-identical trading volumes with the pair moving in opposite directions, and 70% of it taking place in the lower half of the price range. The rate dropped sharply on the 30th of September, after which the pair traded sideways as the volume built up. The pair initially traded within the lower half of the range on the 1st of October before moving to 1.0943.

Yesterday, we mentioned that there is a lack of drivers for the euro to grow, except for within a correction to the broadly weaker dollar. The pair bounced from the upper line of the channel. Another channel has formed within this one. There are signs of a reversal, but we’re keeping an eye on the lower highs. This is a bad sign for buyers.

One news item has caught our eye. The Atlanta Fed has projected a 1.8% rise in US GDP for Q3 against a previous forecast of 2.1%. The third quarter has now come to an end. The first reading of US GDP will soon be published. If it comes out at 1.8%, the euro will rise, as markets will again start factoring in a rate slash by the Fed. For now, we’re keeping an eye on the market from the sidelines.

By Alpari.com