InvestMacro

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.10527
• Open: 1.10713
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17
• Day’s range: 1.10627 – 1.10815
• 52 wk range: 1.0884 – 1.1623

EUR/USD keeps showing a positive trend. The trading instrument updated the local maximum. USD remains under pressure to regulate the US/China trading conflict. Investors are waiting for the relevant data on the issue. Right now the currency has stabilized. The key range is 1.10650-1.10900. The quotes can grow further. Today investors will evaluate the real estate market reports. Open positions from key levels.

At 15:30 (GMT+2:00) the US will publish an array of indicators on the real estate market.

The price fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA which points to the power fo the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.10650, 1.10400, 1.10150
• Resistance levels: 1.10900, 1.11000, 1.11250

If the price fixed above 1.10900, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.11200-1.11400.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.10450-1.10300.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.29214
• Open: 1.29517
• % chg. over the last day: +0.21
• Day’s range: 1.29422 – 1.29698
• 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3385

The GBP/USD currency pair is showing a steady uptrend. Sterling renewed local highs again. Demand for the GBP is supported by the polls that indicate the victory of the ruling conservatives in the upcoming elections. Currently, GBP/USD quotes are consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 1.29450 and 1.29800, respectively. The trding instrument can grow further. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 19.11.2019 is calm.

The price fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA, which signals the power of buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and continues to rise, which gives a strong signal to buy GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator has reached overbought zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which also indicates bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.29450, 1.29150, 1.28850
• Resistance levels: 1.29800, 1.30000

If the price consolidates above 1.29800, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.30000-1.30300.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.29200-1.28900.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.32230
• Open: 1.32055
• % chg. over the last day: -0.17
• Day’s range: 1.32016 – 1.32171
• 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

An ambiguous technical pattern has developed on the USD/CAD currency pair. Looney is currently consolidating. USD/CAD quotes are testing the round level of 1.32000. 1.32200 is the nearest resistance. The US currency remains under pressure due to the uncertainty in the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. The trading instrument has a downside trend. Today we recommend paying attention to economic releases from the United States, as well as the dynamics of oil prices. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 19.11.2019 is calm.

The price fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA, which signals the power of sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.32000, 1.31800, 1.31600
• Resistance levels: 1.32200, 1.32350, 1.32550

If the price consolidates below the round level of 1.32000. expect the quotes to fall toward 1.31800-1.31600.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.32400-1.32550.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 108.783
• Open: 108.677
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03
• Day’s range: 108.461 – 108.698
• 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

The USD/JPY currency pair is in a lateral movement. The technical pattern is ambiguous. At the moment, USD/JPY quotes are testing local support and resistance levels at 108.450 and 108.700, respectively. Demand for safe haven currencies resumed amid uncertainty over the settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, as well as rising political tensions in Hong Kong. Today we expect important economic reports from the USA. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 19.11.2019 is calm.

Indicators do not provide accurate signals: 50 MA crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 108.450, 108.250, 108.000
• Resistance levels: 108.700, 108.900, 109.050

If the price consolidates above 108.700, expect the quotes to rise toward 109.000-109.100.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 108.300-108.100.

by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar continued to decline against a basket of major currencies due to geopolitical uncertainty. On Friday, the dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-0.21%). As it became known, China is very pessimistic about trade relations with the United States. The Chinese government negatively perceived the fact that US President D. Trump may refuse to cancel tariffs previously imposed for China. Also, the government is focused on the country’s domestic problems, such as the protests in Hong Kong and the deterioration of the economy. Therefore, the situation in the trade dispute is unlikely to be resolved soon.

The British pound strengthened against the US currency. At the weekend, a public poll was conducted to find out what political power the UK population supports. According to the survey, the majority supports the ruling party and the policy of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

The “black gold” prices have decreased slightly. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $56.70 mark per barrel. At 23:30 (GMT+2:00), API weekly crude oil stock will be published.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock markets: #SPY (+0.07%), #DIA (+0.12%), #QQQ (+0.08%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has decreased slightly. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.82-1.83%.

• – Statistics on the real estate market in the US at 15:30 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

By Alpari.com

By Alpari.com

By ForexNewsNow

Banks “forced” to embrace tech innovations in order to survive

We’ve seen an obscene amount of banks collaborating with giant companies like Google, Amazon, and Apple to create an innovative approach to payments and make banking services more available. This trend has been going on for some time now and it’s a mix of these major tech companies wanting to provide a variety of services for their customers and with banks increasingly seeing the importance of adapting to their customer’s needs and staying up to date with all the fintech trends and services.

Now more and more banks are willing to talk about the necessity to evolve and collaborate in order to stay relevant and be able to compete with other entities. This is a global trend that surpasses the banking. Everyone is in on the importance of online presence and simplified technology application to their services. Financial companies are starting to adopt these technologies as well and become better accessible. The Forex brokers in Kenya are a primary example, as they have started moving to more simplified payment processing systems rather than banks. The same can be said for the fintech. So now, more and more people are speaking out about the importance of moving banks and financial technologies closer and collaborating on a more intense level.

“Banks are Fintechs”

Recently at a panel at CNBC’s East Tech West event in Guangzhou, China – David Rafalovsky, chief technology officer at Russian state-owned lender Sberbank brought up an interesting point about this worldwide trend of a bank going into fintech. Rafalovsky expressed his frustration with the common distinction that people make between fintech firms and banks. Rafalovsky believes that banks are fintech firms.

At the event, Henry Ma, the chief information officer at WeBank which is a Tencent backed online bank, pointed out that technological innovation opens a lot of doors for people that wouldn’t be able to access the traditional banking services since it requires less complicated procedures and is generally more widely accessible. Ma specifically referred to the group of people who benefit most from this as an untapped market, because really for the longest time this specific demographic was highly untouched by the financial sector.

According to the World Bank, around 1.7 billion people are “unbanked” meaning that they don’t have an account with a financial institution. And the reasons for that can be plentiful, but the main cause is that banks are still exclusive to some for a variety of reasons. Some people don’t have the necessary documentation some people didn’t qualify because of other reason, some may prefer to be more in control of their money. So the fintech and the recent rends are really a “golden opportunity” as mentioned by Henry Ma for these financial institutions to gain a lot of new clients. Both executives agreed that banks actually need to behave more like tech firms in order to keep up and avoid becoming useless.

The future of Banking

It might be too early for us to start thinking about banks becoming extinct but it might be for them. With Google, Apple and Amazon offering their services for transactions and Facebook even releasing its own cryptocurrency, it’s becoming evident that traditional banks have some competition. It’s not necessarily exclusive of banks, because these companies don’t really have the licensing to conduct these transactions, so they definitely need the backing of the banks and that what apple and google are doing, with Google giving more power to its partners. This is an inevitable process that will force more and more banks to seek the opportunities to incorporate more fintech into their banking systems and to collaborate with different companies that already have the trust of the consumers.

This doesn’t mean that banks don’t bring anything to these collaborations, besides their licenses to conduct these transactions. Banks have the capacity to compensate for the overall mistrust that surrounds most of these major companies, who have previously mishandled customer information.

This is a big reason why Facebook’s cryptocurrency – libra is getting so much pushback and is getting abandoned by major partners like visa and Mastercard that pulled out of the project because of Facebook’s unwillingness to embrace regulations that come with working companies like Visa and MasterCard to who answers o regulators. So these companies thought more innovative still lack a lot of qualities that banks bring to the table.

Comments made by Rafalovksy encapsulate the approach that will most likely bring the results that can be beneficial for all parties involved. It’s important that the banks are well-attended to the needs and standards of their customers and embrace technological innovations while maintaining their regulatory systems that make people trust these entities in the first place.

Like the chief tech officer of Sberbank said many banks, perhaps not all but many, are well-positioned to build brand new products. Banks really have to master technology in order to increase customer convenience and to keep them from going to less regulated, newer companies.

By ForexNewsNow

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Early in a new November week, Gold is consolidating at 1465.60. Market players are on standby: there won’t be any serious dynamics in the instrument until media reports some more or less interesting news on the US-China trade agreement.

Gold, an excellent tool for hedging risks, is still under pressure due to market optimism and confidence that the deal will be reached sooner or later. After all, both parties need it. Mitigation of trading risks will surely reduce investors’ interest in Gold, which is usually considered a more reliable and stable asset.

However, it’s obvious that there are a lot of issues and problems in the negotiations. For example, the parties still haven’t arrived at a consensus on the transfer of intellectual property and technological solution rights. Another question that remains open is that China hasn’t yet decided on the amount of agricultural commodities to be bought from the USA. The latter, by the way, has only one tool left, import tariffs, and from time to time makes Chinese officials nervous with its aggressive rhetoric.

Still, Gold will remain in the range between 1455.00 and 1495.00 as long as market players have at least one chance that the parties may reach ed a deal.

Stay tuned to the RoboForex Analysis & Forecasts page for exclusive financial forecasts and professional expert analysis.

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAU/USD has finished the first rising impulse towards 1473.30; right now, it is trading to break the consolidation range to the downside. After breaking 1464.00 downwards, the instrument may continue the descending correction with the target at 1459.30. After completing the correction, the pair may form one more ascending structure towards 1480.50 and then start a new decline to reach 1440.50. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving sideways below 0, thus confirming a consolidation range in the price chart.

In the H1 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating above 1464.00; right now, it is trading to break it to the downside. After breaking the downside border, the price may continue falling to reach 1459.30. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line has already broken 50 to the downside. At the moment, the indicator continues falling towards 20. Later, the instrument may complete this descending wave and the line is expected to reverse upwards.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX.  These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance.  This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. You can get all of my trade ideas by opting into my free market trend signals newsletter.

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically very low level is usually associated with an extreme peak in price.  Throughout history, after the VIX has collapsed to these types of low price levels, the markets have a tendency to revert/correct in ranges that are typically in excess of 3.5% to 5.5%. In some cases, these corrections have been as large as 11% to 18% or more.

Current Continous VIX Price Chart

The current VIX level, near 12, is near the lowest historical levels of the past 12 months.  Every time the VIX has fallen to near these levels, a peak in price has set up within just a few days potentially.  Each time this setup has occurred, the price has rotated/corrected downward by at least 5.5%.  Is that about to happen again in the US markets?

Custom Market Cap Index

Our custom Market Cap Index is also suggesting a market peak has setup and that price may likely revert to lower levels. Historically, when the price reaches these extreme price ranges, a rotation/reversion price event takes place.  We believe a price reversion may be setting up in the US/Global markets that traders may not be prepared for.  The current rally in the US stock market suggests a broader market rotation may take place.  This suggests a deeper reversion event may be setting up.

Last week I talked about the 3-year record high outflows in the GLD gold bullion ETF and how it’s warning us that investors are not fearful of falling stock prices. This along with the vix, and our custom index paint a clear contrarian signal that a top is near!

Concluding Thoughts:

As we near the end of 2019, the current bullish price trend may come to a dramatic end as the VIX charts and our custom Index charts suggest the US/Global markets may have reached levels that support a price rotation/reversion event may be setting up.  Traders need to be prepared for the risks associated with such an event and plan for extended risks.

If you find this type of analysis interesting be sure to video my website to learn more about how you take full advantage of this analysis every week at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has reached the target at 1.1055; right now, it is moving upwards. Possible, the pair may reach 1.1068. Later, the market may start a new correction towards 1.1030 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.1074.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is moving upwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 1.2948 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 1.2864.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is consolidating around 0.9893. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 0.9886, the market may resume moving downwards to reach 0.9862; if to the upside at 0.9902 – start a new growth with the target at 0.9920.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After forming the consolidation range around 108.68, USDJPY has broken it upwards. Possible, the pair may grow to reach 109.14 and then form a new descending structure towards 108.28. After that, the instrument may break this level to the downside and then continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 106.60.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is consolidating above 0.6810. Possibly, today the pair may form one more ascending structure with the short-term target at 0.6826. After that, the instrument may start a new decline towards 0.6804 and then resume growing to reach 0.6844.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is consolidating around 63.86. Today, the pair may break the channel upwards to reach the target at 64.14. Later, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 63.95 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 64.54.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is moving downwards to reach 1.3213. After that, the instrument may start a new growth towards 1.3225 and then resume falling with the short-term target at 1.3199.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is consolidating above 1464.00. If later the pair breaks this level to the downside, the price may fall to break 1459.00 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 1450.60. However, if the market breaks 1469.30 to the upside, the instrument may continue the correction to reach 1480.50.

BRENT

After breaking 62.82 and reaching 63.80, Brent is falling back to 62.82. Later, the market may grow to break 63.80 to the upside and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the target 64.30.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD continues consolidating above 8425.00. Possibly, today the pair may fall to reach 8245.00 and then start another growth to return to 8425.00. Later, the market may resume falling with the target at 8050.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

In the first part of this research article, we shared our ADL predictive modeling research from July 10^th, 2019 where we suggested that Oil prices would begin to collapse to levels near, or below, $40 throughout November and December of 2019.  Our ADL modeling system suggests that oil prices may continue lower well into early 2020 where the price is expected to target $25 to $30 in February~April 2020.

We believe this type of global commodity price collapse, essentially collapse in oil revenues for many global nations could present a very real crisis in our future.  Most of the oil-producing nations rely on stable oil prices to supply much-needed revenues/income to support current and future operations and essential services. If oil prices collapse to levels below $40, this decrease would represent a -40%, or more, collapse in oil revenues for these nations.  If oil prices fall to levels below $30, this would represent a -55%, or more, decrease in expected revenues.

You can get my daily market analysis articles and trade ideas by opting into my free market trend signals newsletter.

We believe the ADL predictive modeling systems results, if accurate, represents a very real potential that the global capital markets and stock market may experience a major crisis event before the end of 2020.  This type of commodity collapse happened once before in history – nearly 10 years before the 1929 US stock market collapse and the slide in commodity prices continued in 1930 and beyond as an extended economic contraction pushed the US into an economic depression.

Producer Price Index for All Commodities from 1914 to 1933

Take a look at these charts for comparison.  The first is a chart of the Producer Price Index for All Commodities from 1914 to 1933. Pay close attention to how commodity prices collapsed in 1921, approximately 9 to 10 years before the US stock market peak (1929) and commodities continue to slide lower.  This collapse in commodity prices relates to the consumer, agriculture, and industrial demand after WWI and setup a shift within the capital markets more focused on stock market speculation. The period between 1923 and 1929 resulted in a complete shift in the capital markets where farms, agriculture, and manufacturing levels decreased while urban areas, cities, and the stock market flourished – until it ended in 1929. (Source: https://eh.net/encyclopedia)

Monthly Crude Oil chart

Now, take a look at this Monthly Crude Oil chart which highlights very similar types of price patterns over the span of about 10 years.  This strangely similar chart, in combination with the strangely similar set of circumstances related to farm, agriculture, and manufacturing as well as the shift of capital towards speculation in the US/Global stock market may be setting up another type of 1929 stock market peak event.

Assets in Money Market Accounts

The shift in the capital markets is very clearly seen in the following chart – the Assets in Money Market Accounts chart.  One can clearly see that after the credit crisis in 2008-09, investors were not willing to participate in the Money Markets at levels prior to 2008.  In fact, for the entire period of 2009 through 2017, global investors stayed away from Money Markets and only recently began pouring capital back into the markets near late 2017 – when confidence increased.

Yet, this chart also shows a very clear “shift” in capital engagement which is very similar to what happened in the late 1920s.  At a time when manufacturing, agriculture and farm foreclosures were haunting the markets, investors poured capital in the stock market and speculative investments because these instruments were ripe with opportunity. The rally in the US stock market in the late 1920s became an opportunity that no one could resist.  Is the same thing happening right now in the US stock market?  Has a capital shift taken place that has global investors bumbling their way into the US stock market while trying to avoid/ignore obvious risks in local markets, manufacturing, and the global economy?

We believe the evidence is very clear for any investor willing to pull off the “bubble goggles” and take a good hard look at where we really are in the economic cycle.  Unless something dramatic changes in relation to global economic growth, credit market expectations and consumer economic participation, it seems obvious that we are inching our way towards a global stock market peak just like we did in 1929.

Even if a trade deal between the US and China were to happen today and eliminate all trade tariffs, would this change anything or would this simply pour fuel onto the “capital shift” fire that is already taking place with speculation reaching frothy levels?

Skilled technical traders should pay very close attention to Oil Prices and global economic factors while this “zombie-land melt-up” continues.  We believe this is not a healthy rally in the US stock market currently and is more similar to what happened in the last 1920s than anything we’ve seen over the past 80+ years.

In Part III of this research article, we’ll highlight some of the recent economic news that helps to further identify the complexity that makes up the current global stock market  “zombie-land”.

If you want to earn 34%-50% a year return on your trading account with very few ETF trades then join me at the Wealth Building Newsletter today!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is correcting after completing the descending wave; right now, it is testing the area between 50.0% and 61.8% fibo. The next downside target may be 76.0% fibo at 1438.05 and the fractal low at 1400.49. The descending MACD indicator confirms further decline.

The H1 chart shows more detailed structure of the current correction after the convergence on MACD. By now, the correctional uptrend has already reached 38.2% fibo and may yet continue towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1480.80 and 1489.10 respectively. However, if the price breaks the low at 1445.60, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCHF is still correcting between 23.6% and 50.0% fibo; right now, it is testing 38.2% fibo. Considering the current descending impulse, the main scenario implies further decline towards 61.8% fibo at 0.9801.

In the H1 chart, the pair is correcting after the convergence on MACD and has almost reached 38.2% fibo at 0.9912. The next upside target may be 50.0% fibo at 0.9924. The support is the low at 0.9870.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.