Forex Speculators trim US Dollar bets after 3 weeks of rises. Mexican peso bets turn bearish

August 17, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large trader and speculators slightly pulled back on their bullish bets of the US dollar after rises for the previous three weeks. Mexican peso positions, meanwhile, declined sharply for a second straight week to turn bearish for the first time in approximately five months.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $27.00 billion as of Tuesday August 12th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$2.41 billion from the $29.41 billion total long position that was registered on August 5th, according to the calculation by Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Despite the decrease in the dollar value of the net speculator positions, overall dollar contracts rose last week to +144,742 contracts as of Tuesday August 5th. This was a change by +15,552 contracts from the total of +129,190 contracts as of Tuesday August 5th. The total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc while decreasing weekly bets for the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

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Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Euro positions rebounded slightly last week after euro positions had fallen to the most bearish level since August of 2012
  • British pound sterling positions gained after falling for five straight weeks and to the lowest level since early February
  • Japanese yen bets rebounded last week (+14,302) after bearish positions had advanced to over -95,000 contracts the previous week
  • Swiss franc bets edged higher following three weeks of decline and to the most bearish level since June 11th 2013
  • Canadian dollar positions fell slightly for a second week in a row but remained on the bullish side for a seventh consecutive week
  • Australian dollar net positions declined slightly for a second week as traders cut back on their Aussie long positions to under 30,000 contracts for the first time since June 17th
  • New Zealand dollar net positions edged slightly lower last week as long positions (-1,036) fell and short positions (+35) were virtually unchanged last week
  • Mexican peso positions dropped sharply last week for a second straight week by over -30,000 contracts. Overall positions are now in a bearish position (-41 contracts) for the first since March 25th

This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/08/2014 294381 51595 110860 -59265 1511
07/15/2014 310661 59506 122352 -62846 -3581
07/22/2014 339706 58142 146965 -88823 -25977
07/29/2014 356865 56562 164637 -108075 -19252
08/05/2014 379004 55179 183926 -128747 -20672
08/12/2014 376424 51596 177613 -126017 2730

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/08/2014 254788 86614 44975 41639 -14773
07/15/2014 255115 85983 47213 38770 -2869
07/22/2014 241155 71792 44295 27497 -11273
07/29/2014 237411 75370 50460 24910 -2587
08/05/2014 230801 66437 54316 12121 -12789
08/12/2014 223719 65348 46549 18799 6678

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/08/2014 157710 11174 77549 -66375 -7689
07/15/2014 155127 8385 71333 -62948 3427
07/22/2014 162029 11979 65895 -53916 9032
07/29/2014 172210 7828 80897 -73069 -19153
08/05/2014 192906 9896 105295 -95399 -22330
08/12/2014 192140 12518 93615 -81097 14302

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/08/2014 35053 9136 15949 -6813 447
07/15/2014 35007 8799 15061 -6262 551
07/22/2014 38359 9642 17022 -7380 -1118
07/29/2014 44022 8665 20429 -11764 -4384
08/05/2014 57238 9247 28100 -18853 -7089
08/12/2014 51981 5247 22606 -17359 1494

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/08/2014 128555 58245 47950 10295 7600
07/15/2014 129787 60353 44732 15621 5326
07/22/2014 129188 62078 41497 20581 4960
07/29/2014 122619 56459 33768 22691 2110
08/05/2014 115261 48944 27489 21455 -1236
08/12/2014 108979 44053 26055 17998 -3457

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/08/2014 101860 66705 30102 36603 -2276
07/15/2014 105209 70881 31138 39743 3140
07/22/2014 109341 72170 33377 38793 -950
07/29/2014 106836 69348 29742 39606 813
08/05/2014 98196 60860 27560 33300 -6306
08/12/2014 94030 54691 25145 29546 -3754

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/08/2014 36123 26750 12334 14416 5431
07/15/2014 32879 26570 11117 15453 1037
07/22/2014 32728 26028 10896 15132 -321
07/29/2014 30531 23552 8263 15289 157
08/05/2014 25603 18949 4449 14500 -789
08/12/2014 25214 17913 4484 13429 -1071

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/08/2014 126231 82777 13966 68811 -751
07/15/2014 131108 86707 17070 69637 826
07/22/2014 142254 98823 19689 79134 9497
07/29/2014 145184 100551 23436 77115 -2019
08/05/2014 143236 77535 45102 32433 -44682
08/12/2014 154694 51933 51974 -41 -32474

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

12 years ago
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