InvestMacro Forex News

July 10, 2012

Major Currency Outlook for the Week

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The US dollar has advanced against most global currencies as economic slowdown dampened the mood in the market. Last week, the ECB made an important decision to lower interest rates which increased demand for riskier assets. Here is an outlook for the major currency pairs this week.

EUR/USD: The pair started last week on a high, attempting to break the 1.2670 resistance line; it slid downwards as the market reacted to difficulties in executing EU leaders’ decision. However following the ECB rate decision, the cross dropped to two-year low of 1.2286. Europe sentiments indicate that economic conditions in the region are worsening; this is likely to force the euro/dollar pair further down where new low of 1.2260 is expected to offer some support during the week.

GBP/USD: this pair lost close to two cents last week to close at 1.5484; this week, the pair has eight releases that are likely to affect it. The pound started last week on a high at 1.5678, rose to 1.5721 but fell to 1.5484. The pair has received support at 1.5415 and below this is the 1.5361 line. On the upside, there is 1.5521 which If broken will open doors to 1.5600 support line. However, market analysts are predicting a downside trend for the pair this week.

USD/JPY: the pair slid lower last week, but it had remained stable through the week and the dollar weakened as a result of the mediocre US Nonfarm Payrolls data. The pair has been trading on an uptrend channel since the beginning of this month and it is close to support at the moment. For this pair, it is important to remember that uptrend support has more significance than uptrend resistance. It is expected that the pair will remain neutral through the week.

USD/CHF: the pair climbed three cents last week as Swiss franc fell, closing the week at 0.9769. This week is a bit quiet for the pair with only two events set to affect it. The cross is expected to continue with the decline if there are no strong data from Switzerland to revert this.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.

Article provided by TraderVox.com
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July 10, 2012

ForexCT’s Afternoon Market Thoughts for 10 July 2012

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

July 10, 2012

EUR/USD Stabilizes After Hitting 2-Year Low

Source: ForexYard

The euro stabilized against the US dollar yesterday after hitting a two-year low last week. A disappointing US jobs report contributed to the significant risk-aversion in the marketplace and played a role in the euro’s renewed bearish trend. Today, analysts are warning that even though the euro has staged a very minor recovery, the overall trend for the currency is still bearish. With little significant news forecasted for the near future that could generate risk taking, the euro could remain at or near its current levels for the time being.

Economic News

USD – USD Sees Mixed Trading Day

The US dollar had a decidedly mixed day yesterday, as a slow news day resulted in low volatility in the marketplace. Against the Australian dollar, the USD gained some 40 pips during the morning session before correcting itself later in the day. After trading as low as 1.0153, the AUD/USD was able to bounce back to the 1.0175 level during the afternoon session. The GBP/USD increased by over 40 pips during European trading, eventually peaking at 1.5511, before staging a very minor downward correction late in the day.

Turning to today, another slow news day means that dollar movement is likely to be a result of euro-zone news. Traders will want to pay attention to announcements out of the euro-zone, particularly with regards to the recent deal among euro-zone leaders to reduce Spanish and Italian borrowing costs. Any signs of further euro-zone trouble may result in the greenback resuming its bullish movement against riskier currencies. Later in the week, the US Trade Balance figure could lead to dollar volatility, with any disappointing news likely to weigh down on the greenback vs. the JPY.

EUR – Euro Remains Bearish amid Risk Aversion in the Marketplace

While the euro was able to come off it recent lows against the dollar and yen during trading yesterday, the common currency remained bearish overall as investors continued to be averse to shifting their funds to riskier assets. The EUR/USD advanced some 60 pips early in the day, eventually peaking at 1.2315. That being said, the pair was not able to maintain its upward momentum and spent most of the European session trading around the 1.2280 level. Against the Japanese yen, the euro gained around 55 pips, reaching as high as 98.04, before turning bearish again and falling to the 97.80 level.

Today, analysts are warning that a lack of significant news means that the euro may not have many opportunities to reverse its current bearish trend. Traders will want to continue monitoring any developments out of the euro-zone particularly with regards to Spain’s high borrowing costs. On Wednesday, a German 10-year bond auction is likely to provide valuable clues as to whether the euro-zone debt crisis is spreading to the region’s largest economy. Should demand for German bonds come in below expectations, the euro could see additional bearish movement during the second half of the week.

Gold – Gold Stages Minor Recovery

After tumbling over $20 an ounce last Friday, gold was able to stage a moderate recovery during yesterday’s trading session. The precious-metal advance over $12 an ounce over the course of the European session to trade as high as $1589 during the afternoon session.

Turning to today, gold traders will want to monitor the US dollar’s movements, as they seem to be an accurate indicator of the level of risk taking in the marketplace. Should the dollar resume its bullish trend against riskier currencies like the euro and Aussie, the price of gold may move downward again.

Crude Oil – Oil Corrects Losses, Gains Close to $2

The price of oil advanced close to $2 a barrel yesterday, eventually reaching above the $85.50 level, after investors determined the commodity was oversold following last Friday’s extreme bearish movement. Additionally, a worse than expected Chinese CPI figure convinced traders that China may ease monetary policy further in order to stimulate economic growth.

Turning to today, any gains crude oil makes are likely to be limited as risk aversion is still dominating the marketplace. Negative euro-zone, US and Chinese data are all signaling that demand for crude is low, meaning that bullish movement may be temporary. That being said, any escalation in the conflict with Iran could result in a temporary spike in oil prices.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart has fallen into oversold territory, signaling that an upward correction could take place in the coming days. Additionally, the Slow Stochastic on the daily chart appears to be forming a bullish cross. Traders may want to open long positions ahead of possible upward movement.

GBP/USD

While the Williams Percent Range on both the daily and weekly chart is currently in oversold territory, most other technical indicators show this pair trading in neutral territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

USD/JPY

Most long term technical indicators are currently showing this pair range-trading, meaning that no defined trend can be predicted at this time. Taking a wait and see approach may be a wise choice, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the coming days.

USD/CHF

The Relative Strength Index on the weekly chart is hovering close to the overbought zone, indicating that downward movement could occur in the near future. This theory is supported by the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic, which has formed a bearish cross. Going short may be the wise choice for this pair.

The Wild Card

CAD/CHF

The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart has crossed over into overbought territory, meaning that downward movement could occur in the near future. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bearish cross. This may be a good time for forex traders to open short positions ahead of a possible downward correction.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

July 10, 2012

Major Events this Week that Will Affect the EUR/USD Cross

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – Last week was disastrous for the euro/dollar pair as it plunged to two-year low after the bold step by the ECB to lower interest rate to 0.75 percent and deposit rate to zero. Further, the pair was pushed further down by the ADP Nonfarm payrolls which came way above the market expectation. On the losing side last week was the euro and yen while the greenback and commodity related currencies rose. The Swiss Franc rose against the euro adding pressure on the Swiss National Bank to react. Here are some of the events that will affect the market this week.

Monday 9

The foreign ministers in the eurozone will meet on this day in Brussels where they will be discussing the aid request from Cyprus, and the Spain and Greece bailout terms. The EU Summit had suggested that the bond buying for Spain was going to be carried out on July 9, but this has changed after opposition rose from some countries. German Trade Balance, Mario Draghi Speech, and Sentix Investor Confidence are other major events to look out for on this day at 0600, 1230, and 0800 hours respectively.

Tuesday 10

On this day, the most important event will be the French Industrial Production data which will be released at 0645hrs GMT. Data from France is expected to show deteriorating outlook for the eurozone. Last month, the second largest economy in euro area registered a 1.5 percent rise in industrial output, but for the June, a drop of 0.9 percent is expected.

Wednesday 11

The German Final CPI data will be released at 0600 hrs GMT. Inflation data from Germany is a key factor considered by the ECB in its monetary decisions and initial estimates showed a drop of 0.1 percent in prices. This is expected to be confirmed by the final figure on Wednesday.

Thursday 12

This day will be filled with major events that will affect the euro/dollar pair. At 0645 hours, the French CPI will be released. France is the second largest economy in Euro Zone a drop of 0.1 percent is expected. The ECB Monthly Bulletin will be released at 0800 hours where data used to make the rate decision last week will be released. Eurozone Industrial Production will be released at 0900 hours. Stagnation is expected after the 0.8 percent drop last month. Draghi talk in Casablanca will also be another event for investors to look out for.

These events are set to give the market negative sentiments hence the euro/usd pair is expected to be bearish.

Major Events this Week that Will Affect the EUR/USD Cross

Last week was disastrous for the euro/dollar pair as it plunged to two-year low after the bold step by the ECB to lower interest rate to 0.75 percent and deposit rate to zero. Further, the pair was pushed further down by the ADP Nonfarm payrolls which came way above the market expectation. On the losing side last week was the euro and yen while the greenback and commodity related currencies rose. The Swiss Franc rose against the euro adding pressure on the Swiss National Bank to react. Here are some of the events that will affect the market this week.

Monday 9

Tuesday 10

Wednesday 11

Thursday 12

These events are set to give the market negative sentiments hence the euro/usd pair is expected to be bearish.

July 10, 2012

Market Review 10.7.12

Source: ForexYard

The euro saw moderate gains against the US dollar in overnight trading, but analysts were quick to warn that the overall trend for the common-currency is still bearish and that any upward movement is likely to be temporary. Against the JPY, the euro has fallen by over 60 pips since last night and is currently trading around the 97.35 level.

Main News for Today

UK Manufacturing Production- 08:30 GMT
• The manufacturing data is forecasted to come in at 0.1%, well above last month’s figure of -0.7%
• Should the news come in as expected, the GBP could see gains against the USD and EUR during mid-day trading

EUR ECOFIN Meetings- All Day
• Euro-zone finance ministers are meeting to discuss last month’s agreement to bring down Spanish and Italian borrowing costs
• While the meetings are not expected to produce any concrete ways of moving forward with the agreement, any positive developments on combating the euro-zone debt crisis could help the EUR.

What A Slowing Chinese Economy Means For Pork Chops

By MoneyMorning.com.au

This is a big week for China watchers – it’s announcing a ton of economic data.

So far this year, everything points to Chinese economic growth falling out of bed.

So the market will be keeping a close eye on the numbers over the coming days.

The biggie will be China’s economic growth rate for the last 3 months. This has fallen steadily from 9.7% to 8.1% over the last year. The market reckons it will be closer to 7.9% this time around – we find out Friday, about lunchtime.

You have to wonder how a country as big as China can calculate this number just a few weeks into the new quarter. It takes other countries a month or two. Is this Asian efficiency, or just good old-fashioned government statistical manipulation…?

We get the numbers for the trade balance today. Retail sales, industrial production and new loans are later this week.

We’ve had a few bad omens for this lot already.

Yesterday we heard that inflation (CPI) has dropped from last month’s 3.0% to hit as low as 2.2%. Just 12 months ago it was up at 6.4%.

The other bad omen is that last week China cut interest rates for the second time in four weeks. This pair of cuts came after leaving them on hold for nearly four years. You wonder if they’re getting ready for a storm coming their way.

My pal and colleague Greg Canavan started calling for a China crash 12 months ago.

Things are following his script to the letter so far.

So I sent him a text message when China cut rates again the other night – his reply was:

‘Too little…and too late’.

What to Avoid As Chinese Construction Falls

It certainly seems that way. China put the brakes on its runaway housing sector to cool the economy down last year. Unfortunately its biggest customer, Europe, went into recession at the same time. Now China’s economy is stalling, and the government is furiously trying to back-peddle.

Greg makes the case that what we are seeing is the result of one of the biggest credit bubbles in history. And that history also teaches us that you can’t reinflate a burst bubble. You can read more from Greg here.

In the words of another colleague, Nick Hubble, ‘It’s kind of like trying to blow up a balloon that popped – all it does is make a rude noise.’

As editor of Diggers and Drillers, I keep a close eye on what China could mean for resource stocks.

It’s been well over a year since I tipped any stocks in iron ore, coking coal, and copper – commodities tied to Chinese infrastructure and construction. They did provide some good trades previously, with readers doubling their money on Discovery Metals (ASX: DML), and gaining 85% on Riversdale (ASX:RIV).

But I’ve steered clear of those commodities for a while, focusing instead on strategic minerals such as graphite and lithium. This strategy is to avoid the effect of the crashing Chinese property construction sector. Less construction means less demand for steel. This in turn reduces demand for iron ore. The price of this has now fallen from $175 / tonne to $135 / tonne in the last year.

But a China crash wouldn’t just affect iron ore.

What would you answer if I asked you what commodities China spends the most on?

Most people would say iron ore, coking coal, thermal coal, and maybe copper.

They’re all up there, but it’s Brent Crude oil that costs China more than any other commodity.

True – China has its own oil industry. But this only meets half its needs. So it imports around 6 million barrels a day, which is about 11% of the seaborne market.

So if this week’s data confirms that China’s economy continues to decelerate, then we may see the oil price take a hit.

The chart below shows just how important Brent Crude is to China. It’s from ANZ’s new China-focused commodity index. This shows the relative cost of the various commodities China consumes.

China – spending more on oil than anything else

Source: ANZ commodity research

There are a few other surprises in there.

Analysing Chinese Consumption

China spends twice as much on pork (8.2%) as on copper (4.3%).

And to think all this time you should have been filling your freezer with pork chops instead of trading copper stocks!

To be honest I’m not sure whether an economic slowdown would lead to Chinese people eating less pork dumplings. And I couldn’t tell you how much of the pork China consumes is imported anyway. It’s not exactly my turf. But I can tell you that the price of pork at my local supermarket has risen steadily for years.

So perhaps China’s influence stretches further than just hard commodities like coal and iron ore.

Something I have talked about a lot is China’s rising gold consumption.

China produces more gold than any other country – and it now also imports more than any other country. Both sources are to meet the rapidly increasing gold demand from the Chinese investor and the Chinese central bank.

So it’s quite surprising to look at this chart and see that the cost of China’s gold demand is behind wheat, and roughly the same as cotton, soybeans and rubber! That takes a bit of the glamour out of my favourite precious metal!

All the same, China’s decelerating economy hasn’t seen it reducing its gold imports. Quite the opposite – these have increased rapidly over the last 12-18 months. My suspicion is that the central bank is behind most of this – and if anything a sliding Chinese economy will only encourage more buying.

As for the rest of the commodities, we’ll first have to wait to see what this week’s economic data shows.

All I know is that Greg doesn’t expect good news.

Dr. Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers & Drillers

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The Data On The Chinese Economy You Really Should Read

How Gold Prices Look Set to Climb As Banks Crumble

What A Slowing Chinese Economy Means For Pork Chops

July 10, 2012

Four Things Suppressing Crude Oil Prices

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The collapse of talks between Iran and the “Big 6″ (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) should have accelerated international crude oil prices.

And yes, they are higher.

But the real spike hasn’t hit. Not yet.

The rising crisis atmosphere in the region and the genuine possibility that a fourth round of talks between the two sides will not even take place should have renewed the upward movement.

That hasn’t taken place yet, either.

Oil prices are caught between the normal dynamics of geopolitical concerns – which push prices north – and continuing concerns over a global economic slowdown – which results in lowering expectations.

Now, this limbo is a delicate balance; it could change in a matter of hours.

Oil Market in Limbo

Labour negotiations between Norway’s oil workers and employers over pay and pensions failed – yet again. Already, the strike has cut oil output by 13%, according to Reuters.

Then there are the figures coming out from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, which will almost certainly show a drawdown on U.S. inventories. Normally, that would also push up oil prices.

However, absent an Iranian move against the Strait of Hormuz or a major refinery accident somewhere in the world, the rise will be less than usual.

That’s because right now, four things are tempering the oil price rise:

Market worries over continuing Chinese expansion
Spanish bond interest rates in excess of 7% (again)
Sluggish job growth in the U.S
And expectations of lower earnings reports.

I told Fox Business on Friday that the range for crude oil prices short-term should be $92-$95 a barrel in New York and upwards of $110 a barrel in London. Without the offset caused by the economic angst, each price ought to be at least $25 per barrel higher.

I noted that using employment as a forward indicator of expected oil prices is looking at the problem in the wrong way. Job growth is the most lagging indicator factor there is. It does not telegraph a change; it registers it (in either direction) well after the fact.

Overall economic performance is widely used as a more proximate gauge. Nonetheless, whether it is Chinese production, US inflation, or European performance, the projections are nowhere close to the levels doomsayers are disseminating.

But pushing the negative side does allow short artists to get additional return while not actually playing off the market underpinnings at all.

I recently gave a briefing to several international asset fund managers. During our conversation, I suggested that the near-term short cycles had pared between 10% and 12% of the actual market price of crude oil. The figures I crunched kept telling me the market really justified a contraction of between 9% and 12% in oil prices from early May through late June.

What we actually received was a cut closer to 22%.

Now granted, giving such a briefing to that crew was like lecturing the fox about raids on the hen house. Most people in that audience were orchestrating the precise artificial pressure about which I was speaking.

Still, the quickest way to end that practice is to have a couple of major daily spikes in price to force them to cover shorts and unravel positions. Yet, until the perception of market direction changes, they are able to restructure a short movement in a couple of sessions and start the whole (artificial) cycle all over again.

What is it going to take to break the hold manipulation has placed on the oil market?

Ending Oil Price Manipulation

We do not need a major calamity (military invasion, natural disaster, or international threats) for this to happen, although any development in that quarter would certainly raise oil prices.

Rather, the market needs to be persuaded that a structure is developing to restrain the economic outliers.

The rise in oil prices does not require new problems to develop.

It merely needs the usual to return.

And for that to occur, the market needs persuasion that the concerns are in check.

Some of that may begin in Brussels, with the first meeting of EU finance ministers after the breakthrough accord orchestrated by heads of state on June 29.

Normally, finance minister sessions are dull as dishwater (believe me, I’ve sat through many). This time, however, there is some urgency.

Of course, both the EU and the European Central Bank recognize that a detailed plan will require more than a week or so to pull together. What the markets on both sides of the Atlantic need right now is reassurance that the mechanism is coming.

This is a first step.

There are other assurances that need to emerge as well – from Chinese central bank policies to prospects that that next extension of the debt ceiling in Washington will not devolve into another three-ring ideological circus.

But the bottom line is firm. The underlying forces in the oil market are not going anywhere.

Dr. Kent Moors

Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article first appeared in Energy & Oil Investor

From the Archives…

The Australian Housing Shortage That Never Existed
06-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

Did the European Summit Change the Market Trend?
05-07-2012 – Murray Dawes

Why Government Intervention Hinders Progress and Innovation
04-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

The Big Opportunities in the Oil Market That Will Lead to Profit
03-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

LIBOR – The Banking Scandal That Could Cause A Riot
02-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Four Things Suppressing Crude Oil Prices

July 10, 2012

This Gold Price Cycle Shows We’re Headed for a Rise

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The recent slide in gold prices has left investors puzzled over why the metal is not acting in the way it was intended: a safe haven from economic uncertainty.

But as Martin Grubb, managing director of investment for the World Gold Council, explained in a recent commentary for MarketWatch, it is not all that unusual for gold to experience a delayed reaction to macroeconomic events.

That’s because gold is one of the very few assets that retains its value during tumultuous economic times. It is often the go-to holding investors sell when they need to raise cash, want liquidity, or are faced with margin calls. So events can trigger a gold sell-off and knock down gold prices before sending them soaring.

Remembering Black Monday

Grubb referenced Black Monday 1987 as a perfect example. The infamous day rocked markets the world over. Many feared it was a “financial Armageddon” as billions of dollars were erased from stock prices during the month of October.

Gold, instead of rising as market participants looked for safe haven assets, dropped as it was sold to raise cash to bolster accounts. It hit as low as $390 in the months that followed before rising to $484 by the end of 1988.

An even more extreme example of gold’s liquidity role was the 1997-1998 Asian currency crisis. The Korean won was unacceptable in currency markets, so the Korean government stepped in and bought gold from locals in exchange for interest-bearing won-denominated bonds.

The Korean government sold the 250 tonnes of gold it received in the international market and was able to service its debt with the sales.

A more recent example of gold’s initial sell off in a financial crisis is the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008. Despite the bank’s failure marking the credit crunch kick off, gold initially fell for a couple months as investors sold it for cash. Then it started a gold bull run that ran the price up 156% in three years.

Grubb wrote that we are currently in the infancy stage of a new crisis and gold’s legendary behavioural pattern is repeating itself.

The precious metal is being liquidated to meet margin calls. In addition, it is believed the yellow metal is being lent into markets to provide ailing European banks with much needed liquidity.

“As a result, gold is not yet reacting to the worsening euro zone news and its current behaviour is much like its behaviour prior to and shortly after the Lehman bankruptcy,” Grubb wrote.

Physical Gold Buying On the Rise

Gold warrants a position in any portfolio, and not merely as a liquid asset, the part it played expertly during October 1987. World Gold Council research reveals that gold is a crucial component to protecting wealth.

At least some investors have caught on as the trend toward owning physical gold is gaining traction again. The latest report from the U.S. Mint shows that sales of gold bullion coins rose more than 13% in June.

The all-time yearly sales record for gold American Eagles was reached in 2009, at the height of the financial crisis, a time many investors feared financial collapse. Some 1,435,000 ounces were sold that year.

If Europe’s mess creates a crisis similar to 2008, sales of gold bullion coins could soar, surpassing 2009′s levels. As the euro continues to decline, and the devalued [US] dollar merely rises because the euro is falling, investors are becoming increasingly less confident in paper currency.

Gold prices may be choppy until the Eurozone’s picture comes more into focus, but gold’s past is a good indicator that investors will revisit an asset that can hold its value and can be counted on for liquidity.

Gold will again have its day.

Diane Alter

Contributing Writer, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This is an edited version of an article that first appeared in Money Morning (USA)

From the Archives…

The Australian Housing Shortage That Never Existed

06-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

Did the European Summit Change the Market Trend?
05-07-2012 – Murray Dawes

Why Government Intervention Hinders Progress and Innovation
04-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

The Big Opportunities in the Oil Market That Will Lead to Profit
03-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

LIBOR – The Banking Scandal That Could Cause A Riot
02-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

This Gold Price Cycle Shows We’re Headed for a Rise

July 9, 2012

Central Bank News Link List – July 10, 2012

By Central Bank News

Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list is updated during the day with the latest news about central banks so readers don’t miss any important developments.

Top Fed officials set table for more easing (Reuters)

British official defends role of Central Bank in Barclays rate-setting scandal (NYT)

Central bank stimulus won’t solve crises (Reuters Breakingviews)

www.CentralBankNews.info

July 9, 2012

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