Will the US Face Blackouts as Electricity Generation Suffers in Drought?

By OilPrice.com

Well, its official – the U.S. government has acknowledged that the U.S. is in the worst drought in over 50 years, since December 1956, when about 58 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate to extreme drought.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center’s “State of the Climate Drought July 2012” report, “Based on the Palmer Drought Index, severe to extreme drought affected about 38 percent of the contiguous United States as of the end of July 2012, an increase of about 5 percent from last month… About 57 percent of the contiguous U.S. fell in the moderate to extreme drought categories (based on the Palmer Drought Index) at the end of July… According to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, about 63 percent of the contiguous U.S. (about 53 percent of the U.S. including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico) was classified as experiencing moderate to exceptional (D1-D4) drought at the end of July.”

Much business writing on the effects of the drought have focused on its agricultural aspects. To give but one, the hottest, driest summer since 1936 scorching the Midwest have diminished projected corn and soybean crop yields s in the U.S. for a third straight year to their lowest levels in nine years. Accordingly, the price of a bushel of corn has jumped 62 percent since 15 June and soybeans gained 32 percent in the same period.

But as consumers fret about the inevitable rise in food prices to come, the drought is unveiling another, darker threat to the American lifestyle, as it is now threatening U.S. electricity supplies.

Why?

Because virtually all power plants, whether they are nuclear, coal, or natural gas-fired, are completely dependent on water for cooling. Hydroelectric plants require continuous water flow to operate their turbines. Given the drought, many facilities are overheating and utilities are shutting them down or running their plants at lower capacity. Few Americans know (or up to this point have cared) that the country’s power plants account for about half of all the water used in the United States. For every gallon of residential water used in the average U.S. household, five times more is used to provide that home with electricity via hydropower turbines and fossil fuel power plants, roughly 40,000 gallons each month.

Michael Webber, associate director of the Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy at the University of Texas at Austin, is under no such illusions, stating that the summer’s record high  heat and drought have worked together to overtax the nation’s electrical grid, adding that families use more water to power their homes than they use from their tap. Webber said, “In summer you often get a double whammy. People want their air-conditioning and drought gets worse. You have more demand for electricity and less water available to produce it. That is what we are seeing in the Midwest right now, power plants on the edge.”

In July U.S. nuclear-power production hit its lowest seasonal levels in nine years as drought and heat forced Nuclear power plants from Ohio to Vermont to slow output. Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesman David McIntyre explained, “Heat is the main issue, because if the river is getting warmer the water going into the plant is warmer and makes it harder to cool. If the water gets too warm, you have to dial back production,” McIntyre said. “That’s for reactor safety, and also to regulate the temperature of discharge water, which affects aquatic life.”

Nuclear is the thirstiest power source. According to the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in Morgantown, West Virginia, the average NPP that generates 12.2 million megawatt hours of electricity requires far more water to cool its turbines than other power plants. NPPs need 2725 liters of water per megawatt hour for cooling. Coal or natural gas plants need, on average, only 1890 and 719 liters respectively to produce the same amount of energy.

And oh, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center in its 16 August “U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook” wrote, “The Drought Outlook valid through the end of November 2012 indicates drought conditions will remain essentially unchanged in large sections of the central Mississippi Valley, the central and southwestern Great Plains, most of the High Plains, the central Rockies, the Great Basin, and parts of the Far West…” The lack of rain and the incessant heat, has also increased the need for irrigation water for farming, meaning increasing competition between the agricultural and power generation sectors for the same shrinking water “pool.”

But, every cloud has a silver lining. California’s Pacific Gas and Electric Co. utility, commonly known as PG&E, that provides natural gas and electricity to most of the northern two-thirds of California, from Bakersfield almost to the Oregon border, is on the case. PG&E has informed its customers that its “Diablo Canyon (nuclear) Power Plant, the largest source of generation in the utility’s service area, is cooled by ocean water, not by rivers that could dry up.”

Never mind the fact that by the time the Diablo Canyon NPP was completed in 1973, engineers discovered that it was several miles away from the Hosgri seismic fault, which had a 7.1 magnitude earthquake on 4 November 1927.

But ocean water as a coolant is not necessarily the answer either.

On 12 August Dominion Resources’ Millstone NPP, situated on Connecticut’s Niantic Bay on Long Island Sound, was forced to shut down one of two reactor units because seawater used to cool down the plant was too warm, averaging 1.7 degrees above the NRC limit of 75 degrees Fahrenheit. The Millstone NPP, which provides half of all power used in Connecticut and 12 percent in New England, was only restarted twelve days later.

The federal government is hardly known for its scaremongering tactics, but it would seem that Mother Nature is forcing Americans to belatedly consider making some lifestyle changes, as the choice seems to be devolving into energy conservation, turning down the air conditioner and digging deeper into the wallet for food costs.

It might also be time for serious national discussion about renewable energy, including wind and solar.

If the sun stops shining, all bets are off.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-U.S.-Drought-and-Electricity-Generation.html

By. John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com

 

Euro Registers a Weekly Gain on ECB Bond Buying Plan

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The 17-nation currency advanced by most in six months against the US dollar last week after Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank President announced the bond buying program. Euro’s advance against the dollar was supported by poor Labor Department’s data which showed a worsening scenario in the labor market. Reports released last week indicated that Payrolls rose less than forecast as unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. The report sparked speculations that Federal Open Market Committee will add stimulus when they meet this week. The Canadian dollar advanced by most in almost a year as the Swiss franc fell as demand for safe haven currencies declined.

Richard Franulovich highlighted that Draghi’s announcement and the US Payrolls were the main events last week and both indicated to risk-on mood in the market. Franilovich, who is the Senior Currency Strategist in New York at Westpac Banking Corp, added that the Fed and ECB are underwriting risks hence investors are more inclined to sell the dollar and buy risk. The Swiss franc has registered the largest weekly decline against the 17-nation currency since November as demand for safety was significantly reduced by Draghi’s announcement. Axel Merk, who founded the Merk Investments LLC indicated that the European Central Bank action has provided further support for the euro by removing tail risk, hence putting the 17-nation currency on equal footings with other major currencies.

Euro advanced by 1.9 percent against the dollar to close the week at $1.2786 after increasing to a high of $1.2817 on Friday, the strongest level since May 22. It advanced by 1.7 percent against the yen to close the week at 100.25 yen. The euro had advanced to 100.43 on Friday, the strongest since July 14. Further, the shared currency advanced to its strongest since January against the Swiss Franc of 1.2155, registering the biggest weekly gain since November last year.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
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News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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Gold & Silver Slip But “Set to Benefit” If Fed Begins QE3 This Week

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Mon 10 Sept, 07:45 EST

THE WHOLESALE gold price drifted lower to $1730 per ounce Monday morning in London, some ten Dollars below Friday’s six-month high.

Stock markets were broadly flat and US Treasuries fell, meantime.

The silver price dipped below $33.50 per ounce – around 20 cents below last week’s close – while other commodities were broadly flat, with the exception of copper, which posted gains.

“Our economists now expect the Fed to ease further at this week’s FOMC meeting, providing gold the catalyst it requires to test fresh highs for this year over the coming weeks,” says a note from Barclays Capital.

“The latest price rally has been driven mainly by hopes that central banks will implement monetary easing measures,” agree analysts at Commerzbank, citing last week’s European Central Bank announcement of unlimited government bond buying as well as the prospect of QE3.

Friday’s trading saw the wholesale-market gold price in Dollars hit its highest level since February, after a disappointing US nonfarm payrolls report led to renewed speculation the Federal Reserve could announce a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) when it makes its latest policy decision this Wednesday.

“[QE3] is likely to spark higher inflation in the medium to long term [and] lead to fears of depreciation of key trading currencies,” says Commerzbank.

“This should benefit gold as a store of value and as an alternative currency.”

Germany’s Constitutional Court is also due to rule this Wednesday on whether or not the Eurozone’s permanenet bailout fund the European Stability Mechanism is compatible with German law.

Germany must “lead or leave” the Eurozone of single currency members, billionaire investor George Soros has told the Financial Times.

“Either throw in your fate with the rest of Europe, take the risk of sinking or swimming together, or leave the Euro,” says Soros.

“Because if you have left, the problems of the Eurozone would get better.”

Berlin has repeatedly insisted that Eurozone governments must adhere to austerity measures in return for financial aid, a policy which Soros describes as “reinforcing the current deflationary stance”.

Over in China – the world’s second-largest gold buying nation last year – imports of gold from Hong Kong rose 12% month-on-month in July to nearly 76 tonnes, the second highest level this year and almost double the figure for July 2011, Hong Kong customs data show.  Hong Kong is a major conduit for Chinese gold bullion imports.

In the same month, China’s domestic gold mining production rose to 31.3 tonnes, according to Ministry of Industry and Information Technology figures published Monday. Chinese gold output for the first seven months of 2012 was 208 tonnes – a gain of just over 7% on the same period last year.

“Slowing real domestic demand in China was the key factor, consistent with the soft activity data in the past few weeks,” says Societe Generale economist Wei Yao.

In New York, the so-called speculative net long position of Comex gold futures and options traders – measured as the difference between the number of open bullish and bearish contracts – rose for the third week running to hit its highest level since February last Tuesday, according to weekly data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“The change in the net position was once again driven by moves of a bullish nature,” says Standard Bank commodities strategist Marc Ground, meaning the addition of bullish ‘long’ positions was a bigger factor than the reduction of bearish ‘shorts’.

“The unwinding of short positions was similar to the previous week…a strong addition to longs was also evident, although it was noticeably lower than in the previous week.”

Investment bank UBS today raised its one-month gold price forecast from $1700 per ounce to $1850 per ounce, and its silver price forecast to $37 per ounce, up from $32 per ounce.

One Citi analyst meantime says gold could rise to $2500 per ounce in the first quarter of next year, the New York Post reports.

In South Africa meantime, some 15,000 gold mining workers – a third of the workforce – are on strike at the KDC West mine, operated by the world’s fourth-biggest gold producer Gold Fields. The strike comes less than a week after Gold Fields resolved a dispute at its KDC East mine, which involved 12,000 workers.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault’s weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

 

Central Bank News Link List – Sept 10, 2012: Central bankers meet in Basel

By Central Bank News

Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.

Franc Records a Weekly Drop against the Euro

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Swiss Franc dropped to its lowest level against the euro in almost eight months after the European Central Bank rolled out its bond purchasing program, reducing the need for safer assets. The franc registered a weekly drop against the 17-nation currency after data from the Swiss National Bank showed that the foreign reserves surged by the slowest pace in August, signaling that there is less need for interventions to weaken the currency further. Economists have also construed this as an indication that debt crisis in the euro region is softening. The SNB introduced a cap on the franc at 1.20 per euro in September last year to help boost exports in the country.

Bernd Berg, a Currency Strategist in Zurich at Credit Suisse Group AG, said that the decision to establish a bond buying program takes away the tail risks from the euro region hence speculators who are basing their bets on the floor are getting squeezed out of the safe haven position of the franc. The ECB President Mario Draghi announced the bond-purchase plan last week, where he indicated that the plan would focus on government bonds with maturities of a maximum of three years. The plan will only be available in the secondary market to countries that have asked for aid from the bailout fund.

A report last week from the Swiss National Bank indicated that its foreign-currency reserves expanded to 418.4 billion francs by the end of last month, up from 408.6 billion in July. Raghav Subbarao who is a Foreign Exchange Strategist at Barclays Plc in London, indicated that the increase is significantly lower than the previous three months hence signaling less pressure on the SNB to defend its cap.

The Swiss Franc dropped by 0.4 percent against the euro to trade at 1.2093 per euro on Friday, after depreciating to a low of 1.2155, the weakest it has been since January 9.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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Forex news – Monthly review- 10.09.2012

Forex Daily review brought to you by REAL FOREX | www.Real-forex.com

EUR/USD

Weekly chart

Last Weekly review

Eventually the 1.2290 price level was used as a strong support and we can see that the price has continued towards its closest target on the 1.2580 resistance level which is also used as a 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the last downtrend (blue broken line) and as a dynamic resistance area (the lower lip of the descending price channel which is marked in red broken lines). Breaching of the mentioned followed by the 1.2680 price level (located in the same area) will indicate that the price will continue towards the next resistance on the 1.2910 price level. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area and its descending under the 1.2290 price level will probably lead the price towards the last low on the 1.2042 price level.
 
Current review for today
The price has broken the 1.2580 resistance level in addition to the upper lip of the descending price channel (red broken lines), the price has done that with a significant green candle, that shows the buyers strength. It is possible to assume that the price is making its way towards the closest resistance on the 1.2910 price level, while a stoppage in this area might create a technical correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the current uptrend which started on the 1.2042 price level.
 
You can see the chart below:
forex news eur/usd
 
 
Daily chart
Last Weekly review
It is possible to see that the price has corrected the whole last downtrend (blue broken line) by 38.2% by Fibonacci retracement towards the 1.2594 price level, while the red broken line is the upper lip of the descending tunnel from the weekly review and used as a dynamic resistance area. In addition it is possible to see that the current uptrend which started on the 1.2067 price level is going into a shrinking ascending price channel that its target is breaking of the lower lip while correcting the ascending move which happened inside. All those are showing the possibility of a stoppage of the current uptrend in case of a change in the direction of the price towards the last low on the 1.2067 price level. On the other hand, we can see that currently the price is climbing with an ascending price structure and while it stays this way, the targets of the price will be the 1.2692, 1.2750, 1.2824 price levels in this order.
 
Current review for today
As it was written in the last review, during the last sharp ascending move, the price has reached its targets while it is reaching its last one on the 1.2824 price level, a minor resistance level, right now. Breaching this level will probably lead the price towards the 1.2939 price level which is a 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the downtrend marked in blue broken line, in addition this level is a significant resistance level that can be seen in the weekly chart. On the other hand, stoppage in the current area and a descend of the price under the lower lip of the ascending price channel (black broken lines), it will be possible that the rice will perform a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the uptrend which started on the 1.2290 price level.
 
You can see the chart below:
forex news eur/usd 
 

GBP/USD

Weekly chart
Last Weekly review
The price has breached the 1.5778 upper ranging level and we can see that on the last candle the price has checked if this level can switch roles and function as a support (it can be better seen on the daily chart), followed an ascending move once the check was done. Breaching of the 1.5778 price level is breaching the neckline of the “One in, one out” pattern (blue broken lines), while its target is the next resistance on the 1.6170 price level. Only breaking of the 1.5778 price level will stall the current uptrend while it is possible to see a technical correction of the uptrend which started around the 1.5400 area.
 
Current review for today
Breaching the upper ranging lip on the 1.5778 price level gave the sign for the beginning of the uptrend which is taking place for the second week in a row, while the target of the price is exactly the next resistance on the 1.6170 price level, a level which is also the target of the “One in, one out” pattern (blue broken lines), In addition, it is possible to see that this level is located on the descending trend line between the peaks (red broken line) which is also used as a dynamic support. It is possible that from this point we will see a technical correction to the uptrend which started on the 1.5270 price level.
 
You can see the chart below:
forex news gbp/usd 
 
Daily chart
Last Weekly review
The price has breached the 1.5737 resistance level and reached the 1.5906 by doing a sharp move upwards. At this stage the price has stopped and went down to check the 1.5784 support level (from the weekly chart review) while on the last day of the week, the price has climbed and currently located on the 1.5906 last peak level. Breaching of this level will probably lead the price to complete the “One in, one out” pattern target (blue broken lines), on the 1.6015 price level. Only breaking of the price on the ascending trend line which is connecting the lows will change this assumption.
 
Current review for today
The price has reached the “One in, one out” on the 1.6015 price level as it was written in last week review. The next resistance on the 1.6070 price level is located pretty close while its breaking will probably lead the price towards the last peak on the 1.6300 price level. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area and the creation of a descending price structure will send the price to a technical correction of the uptrend which started on the 1.5400 price level.
 
You can see the chart below:
 forex news gbp/usd

US Labor Market Disappoints as Speculation of Additional Easing Rose

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – Speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman will move to have his stimulus package accepted in the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week increased after a report from the US Labor department indicated that employment is growing at a slower pace than expected. Brain Jacobsen indicated that the report triggers the FOMC to act sooner than later as the data does not point to substantial improvement. Jacobsen also predicted that the FOMC will hold interest rate close to zero through to late 2014.

According to a Labor Department’s report released on Friday, US employers added a mere 96,000 jobs in August, down from 141,000 jobs in July. This is far lower than the market expectation of 130,000. The report also showed that the unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent, which is against the market expectation of no change on this figure. The report also showed that 386,000 worker left the labor market either due to retirement or layoffs last month. The report triggered global stocks rally with the dollar declining as speculation of stimulus rose. The FOMC meets on September 12-13. Roberto Perli, who is a Managing Director in Washington at International Strategy & Investment Group Inc, said that the results are inconsistent with the Fed’s expectation of progress towards the natural unemployment rate, adding that the current rate will not achieve such results.

The marketing is forecasting the Fed officials to give an unemployment target of 5.2 to 6 percent when they meet this week. The FOMC will also update its economic data and Bernanke is expected to hold a press conference after the meeting. In the previous meeting, the FOMC members were unanimous is agreeing that further stimulus would be necessary unless substantial change was evident in the labor market. In a speech at Jackson Hole Wyoming conference, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated that stimulus package was necessary for the US economy at this moment. According to Yelena Shulyatyeva, QE will be on the table when the FOMC meet this week.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
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News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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USD/CAD: Boosted Prospects of Fed Easing to Debilitate the Greenback

Article by AlgosysFx Forex Trading Solutions

Increased prospects for additional easing from the Federal Reserve are presumed to continue weighing on the US dollar opposite its Canadian counterpart after jobs growth in the world’s largest economy slowed considerably in August. In contrast, the Canadian jobs engine powered along during the same month, seemingly reinforcing Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney’s hawkish stance on monetary policy.

In a report that largely underscored the weakening state of the US economy, the US Labor Department disclosed that American employers added only 96,000 jobs in August, well below expectations of a 123,000 count and lower than the 141,000 rise recorded in July. The Jobless Rate did decline from 8.3 percent to 8.1 percent, but that was because 368,000 discouraged Americans left the labor force. In addition, the participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age individuals in the labor force, fell to its lowest level since September 1981. At its last meeting, the Fed’s FOMC said additional stimulus would be warranted unless a substantial and sustainable strengthening of the economy begins. Last month, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke seemingly laid out the groundwork for further action as he called unemployment a grave concern. Economists say that the soft jobs report was likely enough to convince the Fed that a looser monetary policy was needed to breathe more life into an economy. Hence, with a third round of bond purchases seemingly on the cards in this week’s Fed policy meeting, demand for the Greenback is apt to decline.

Conversely, the Canadian labor market is showing encouraging signs of strength.  The Canadian economy added 34,300 jobs in August, managing to recover all the 30,400 lost positions in July and well exceeding estimates of a 9,900 gain. The Unemployment Rate remained at 7.3 percent as more Canadian searched for jobs during the month. While analysts warn that the strength of the report is unlikely to sway the BOC to raise interest rates soon given the slowdown in the US, it still supports Governor Carney’s predisposition to withdraw stimulus should conditions warrant them.

Meanwhile, the Royal Bank of Canada projects the Canadian economy to grow by a relatively strong 2.1 percent this year as accommodative monetary policy, continued business spending, bettering labor market conditions and an improving trade balance are likely to support growth. It also predicts that the lingering downside risks are apt to diminish in the months ahead, clearing the way for the BOC to gradually hike rates next year. Amid this outlook, the Loonie is apt to be supported. As such, a short position is advised for the USD/CAD today.

For more news, analysis, technical charts and candlestick analysis, visit AlgosysFx

 

Disappointing Jobs Report Turns Dollar Bearish

Source: ForexYard

The USD tumbled on Friday, following a worse than expected Non-Farm Employment Change report that signaled a slowing down in the US economic recovery. The news increased speculations that the Fed will soon initiate a new round of quantitative easing and resulted in gains for higher yielding assets, including gold and silver. This week, traders will want to pay attention to several pieces of economic news. In particular, Thursday’s FOMC Statement has the potential to generate market volatility if the Fed announces new plans to boost the US economy.

Economic News

USD – All Eyes on Thursday’s FOMC Statement

The US dollar tumbled against virtually all of its main currency rivals on Friday, after a disappointing jobs report indicated a further slowing down in the US economic recovery. The USD/JPY fell close to 100 pips after the news was announced, eventually reaching the 78.01 level. The pair was able to stage a minor upward correction to reach 78.21 before markets closed for the weekend. Against the Swiss franc, the greenback dropped more than 140 pips during afternoon trading, eventually closing out the day at 0.9445.

This week, the dollar see further losses if the Fed decides to initiate a new round of quantitative easing to boost the US economic recovery when they meet on Thursday. In addition, traders will want to pay attention to several potentially significant US indicators set to be released over the coming days. Tuesday’s trade balance report, followed by the PPI figure on Thursday and retail sales data on Friday, could all result in the greenback extending its recent losses if they come in below their expected levels.

EUR – Euro Finishes Week on a Bullish Note

The euro was able to rally against most of its main currency rivals on Friday, after a worse than expected US jobs report caused investors to revert their funds to the common-currency. The EUR/USD shot up close to 180 pips over the course of the day and eventually closed out the week at 1.2815, its highest level since May of this year. Against the Japanese yen, the common currency gained more than 50 pips to reach a two-month high at 100.23.

Turning to this week, the euro is likely to be influenced by a batch of potentially significant US news, particularly the FOMC statement on Thursday. That being said, traders will also want to pay attention to the results of an Italian ten-year bond auction, also scheduled to take place on Thursday. Last week’s unveiling of a plan to combat the euro-zone debt crisis by the ECB led to gains for the euro. If Thursday’s auction indicates strong demand for Italian bonds, the common-currency may extend its recent bullish movement.

Gold – Gold at 6-Month High after US Jobs Report

Gold shot up to its highest level in six-months on Friday, after a disappointing US jobs report led to an increase in speculations that the Fed will soon take action to boost the US economic recovery. The precious metal traded as high as $1741.49 before markets closed for the weekend, up more than $50 an ounce for the day.

This week, gold traders will want to continue monitoring the affects US news is having on the dollar. If the greenback extends its recent bearish trend, gold could continue moving upward as it would become cheaper for international buyers to purchase. Particular attention should be given to Thursday’s FOMC statement, as it is forecasted to generate the most volatility in the marketplace.

Crude Oil – Hopes for Fed Stimulus Plan Boosts Oil

The price of crude oil was able to advance more than $2 a barrel on Friday, as hopes that the Fed will soon move in and take action to boost the US economic recovery led to risk taking in the marketplace. After falling to $94.07 during mid-day trading, crude was able to advance during the second half of the day to finish out the week at $96.33.

This week, traders should be warned that if the Fed decides not to announce a new round of quantitative easing when they meet on Thursday, crude may reverse some of its recent gains. In addition, oil traders will also want to pay attention to a US inventories report on Wednesday. Any sign of weakened demand for oil in the US could also turn the commodity bearish.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are narrowing, signaling that this pair could see a shift in price in the coming days. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart has crossed over into the overbought zone, indicating that the change in price could be downward. Opening short positions may be the wise choice for this pair.

GBP/USD

The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory, signaling that a downward correction could occur in the near future. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bearish cross. Going short may be the wise choice for this pair.

USD/JPY

While the weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range has dropped into oversold territory, most other long-term technical indicators show this pair range trading. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

USD/CHF

The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index is currently in oversold territory, which indicates that this pair could see a bullish correction in the near future. Additionally, the Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart has fallen to the -90 level, giving further support to the theory of impending upward movement. Going long may be the smart choice for this pair.

The Wild Card

USD/SGD

The Relative Strength Index and Williams Percent Range on the daily chart have both crossed into the oversold zone, indicating that an upward correction could occur in the near future. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart appears close to forming a bullish cross. Going long may be the smart choice for forex traders today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.