Australian Dollar Remains Low Prior to Business Investment Report

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Aussie is still trading low against the dollar following its decline yesterday as speculation rose a report on capital expenditure growth will show a decline. This has dampened the outlook for the Australian currency as well as the country’s economy. The Australian dollar has dropped for the third day against the yen as the market boosted bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower its interest rates when they meet on December 4. The demand for the New Zealand dollar was limited after Graeme Wheeler, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, indicated that the strong currency is hurting the nation’s economy. The two south pacific currencies remained lower as the Asian stocks dropped; however, they were supported by reports from China indicating that the nation’s trade will have improved by the second quarter of 2013.

According to Adrew Salter, who is a currency strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd in Sydney, the non-mining capital investment improvements next year will determine whether there is need for policy makers to establish lower interest rates. Australian 10-year benchmark bond yields dropped by 8 basis points to 3.21 percent while the New Zealand two year swap rate declined by one and a half basis points to 2.605 percent. The Australian dollar dropped as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares dropped by 0.6 percent yesterday.

The market is expecting a report on business investment from Statistics bureau to show a rise of two percent in the third quarter, which is a slower pace that the 3.4 percent registered in the previous quarter. Data published yesterday indicated that the construction work in Australia improved by 1.7 percent in the third quarter; after a revised report indicated that it increased by 0.9 percent in the second quarter.

The Australian dollar bought $1.0447 at the close of trading in Sydney yesterday after it declined by 0.2 percent the previous day to trade at 1.0446. The Aussie dropped by 0.4 percent against the yen to trade at 85.50 yen. The New Zealand currency was trading at 82.10 US Cents and dropped by 0.3 percent against the yen to exchange at 67.19.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Market Review 28.11.12

Source: ForexYard

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The Japanese yen posted gains vs. both the US dollar and euro during overnight trading, as concerns regarding the upcoming US “fiscal cliff”, a batch of automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to take place at the beginning of the year, led to risk aversion in the marketplace. Negotiations to come up with a way to avoid the “fiscal cliff” between US Congressional leaders appear to have made little progress.

Fears that the “fiscal cliff” could send the US back into recession also weighed down on the price of gold, which fell more than $3 an ounce last night. Crude oil fell just over $0.40 a barrel amid signs that demand in the US is slowing down.

Main News for Today

US New Home Sales- 15:00 GMT
• Today’s figure is forecasted to come in at 387K, slightly lower than last month’s
• Any worse than expected news could lead to additional dollar losses against the yen

US Crude Oil Inventories- 15:30 GMT
• US inventories are forecasted to have gone up by 0.5M barrels last week
• A higher than expected figure today would signal decreased demand in the US, which would weigh down on oil prices in afternoon trading

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Trends 28.11.12

Source: ForexYard

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Hey Everyone,

Below are some market trends for today.

Good luck!

-Dan

Gold- May see upward movement today
Support- 1729.32
Resistance- 1747.82

Silver- May see upward movement today
Support- 33.30
Resistance- 34.46

Crude Oil- May see downward movement today
Support- 85.66
Resistance- 88.01

Dax 30- May see downward movement today
Support- 7223.26
Resistance- 7419.34

EUR/USD May see upward movement today
Support- 1.2882
Resistance- 1.2994

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Thailand holds rate as downside growth risks subside

By Central Bank News
     Thailand’s central bank held its policy rate unchanged at 2.75 percent, as expected, saying downside risks to economic growth were starting to subside and inflationary pressures were in check.
     In a surprisingly upbeat statement, the Bank of Thailand said the country’s positive growth momentum was continuing and the impact of slow global growth “has so far remained limited only to export-related sectors, which the greater-than-expected strength in domestic demand appeared to provide sufficient cushion against the adverse impact of export slowdown.”
    The Thai central bank, which has cut rates twice this year for a total reduction of 50 basis points, said exports were projected to recover in the first half of 2013 on the back of an anticipated improvement in the global economy, with private consumption and investment continuing to drive the economy.
    “The MPC viewed that as downside risks to growth subsided with inflationary pressures in check, the current policy rate remained accommodative and conducive to growth,” the bank said after a meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee.
    The global outlook showed signs of stabilization on the back of better-than-expected U.S. and China data, although the fiscal cliff remained a risk factor, the bank said.
    China’s economy appeared to regain traction and even the outlook for the euro zone economy is forecast to stabilize next year as the resolution to the debt crises becomes more concrete.
   “Against this backdrop, the outlook of Asian economies has gradually improved with signs of recovery in exports, recent pick-up in China’s economy, as well as buoyant domestic demand,” the central bank said.
    Thailand’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 1.2 percent in the third quarter, down from a quarterly rate of 2.8 percent in the second, for an annual growth of 3.0 percent, down from 4.4 percent.
   Headline inflation in October eased to 3.3 percent, slightly down from 3.4 percent in September, while core inflation was 1.83 percent. The central bank targets core inflation of 0.5 to 3.0 percent.
    The MPC’s statement was considerably more upbeat than last month when the bank surprised markets by cutting its rate by 25 basis points and described the global economy as “weak and fragile.”
    The Thai central bank has forecast economic growth of 5.7 percent this year and 5.0 percent in 2013.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

Loonie Drops against Dollar as US Struggles to Avert Fiscal Cliff

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Canada’s dollar has dropped from its strongest level in three weeks against the greenback as concerns about the US budget rose. There is increased speculation that the budget debate will derail the US economy, which is Canada’s largest trading partner. The Canadian dollar had increased earlier as euro zone finance ministers agreed to give Greece the bailout fund with easier terms. The Canadian dollar had also appreciated as the US economic data showed that the economy is recovering.

The Canadian dollar dropped as the crude oil prices dropped and US Senate approach to fiscal cliff issue boosted the demand for safe haven assets. According to Greg Moore, who is a currency strategist in Toronto at Toronto-Dominion Bank, the market is focusing on external issues such as the US fiscal cliff issue and the euro zone crisis. Loonie also dropped after the Bank of Canada Governor was named as the preferred candidate for the Bank of England chief. Canadian government bonds rose, pushing the benchmark yield down by three basis points to 1.73 percent, which is the lowest level in a week.

According to Steve Butler, who is the Bank of Nova Scotia’s managing director in Toronto, the market seems to be sitting back in a wait-and-see mode. He suggested that the market has been a little “too orderly.” The implied volatility for 3-months options on the US dollar against the loonie dropped to the lowest level since May 2001 of 5.55 percent. Crude oil prices dropped by 0.5 percent to $87.34 per barrel after rising by 0.6 percent in New York. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed the day down by 0.5 after earlier gaining by 0.2 percent.

The Canadian dollar dropped by 0.1 percent against the dollar to trade at 99.46 cents per US dollar at the close of trading in Toronto. It had reached its strongest level since Nov. 7 of 99.06 cents earlier in the day.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Why I’m Bullish on These Beaten-Down Stocks

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The last three years have been a rotten time for Aussie retailers.

Sales are down.

Shoppers are buying stuff online.

Some retailers are even going bust – the Darrell Lea chocolate stores are a recent example.

And according to a report on Finance News Network:


‘Gerry Harvey has warned the first half of next year is going to be extremely difficult for retailers.
[He] says while hot weather could provide a boost to Christmas sales he has never seen as many retailers under pressure over his 50 years in the industry. Mr Harvey has also cautioned many retailers are at risk of going bust in the New Year but vowed Harvey Norman Holdings will hold up to be the last man standing.’

Things don’t look good for the Aussie economy. Must be time to pack your bags and sell out, right? Maybe not…

We’ll admit we’ve given Gerry Harvey a hard time in the past. And we still believe the Harvey Norman [ASX: HVN] franchise business is a business model from the 1970s-1990s…a business model that’s looking out-dated.

Now, that’s not to say the Harvey Norman business can’t make a comeback, because it could.

In fact, we included Harvey Norman in our ‘Five Stocks to Buy’ report a few months ago. And we still think those five stocks are a good starting point for anyone who wants to set up a new stock portfolio.

The full list of the ‘Five Stocks to Buy’ is:

  • Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd [ASX: HVN]
  • JB Hi-Fi Ltd [ASX: JBH]
  • Myer Holdings Ltd [ASX: MYR]
  • Qantas Airways Ltd [ASX: QAN]
  • Toll Holdings Ltd [ASX: TOL]

So, how are those stocks doing since we ‘tipped’ them on 20 June? They’re doing OK. They’re big beaten-down blue-chip stocks, so we didn’t expect fireworks.

But since 20 June (taking into account dividends) Harvey Norman is down 2.1%, JB Hi-Fi is up 19.7%, Myer is up 27.8%, Qantas is up 15.1%, and Toll is up 8.5%.

That’s an average gain of 13.8%…almost twice the gain of the ASX/S&P 200′s gain of 7.4% since 20 June.

The point is these were some of the Aussie market’s most beaten down stocks. Quite frankly these stocks are still beaten down, and would still make a good starting point for people building a new share portfolio.

And that brings me to the single most important key to investing…

Why You Should Buy ‘Good’ Stocks
Not ‘Any’ Stocks

That is, buying good stocks when most other folks think they’re bad stocks.

Notice we say ‘good’ stocks. We don’t say any stocks. That’s an important point because there are plenty of bad stocks lingering at the bottom of the ASX.

And sometimes it’s hard to know which stocks are good and which are bad. But if you put in enough research, analysis and due diligence, it can improve your odds.

You won’t get every stock pick right every the time – that’s impossible – but doing some research helps.

Then there’s the issue of the returns you’re after. Some bottom-dwelling stocks may only give you a 10-20% return. Other bottom-dwellers may give you a triple-digit gain.

The difference in returns comes down to the risk you’re prepared to take.

If you want big triple-digit gains then you’ll look for the small-cap stocks with the biggest potential gain. Those are the stocks we mostly look for.

But as we mentioned above, the ’5 Stocks to Buy’ are all beaten down blue-chip stocks. They’re established businesses with good cash flows, and some of them remained profitable despite the falling stock price.

That was the theme of the stocks we looked at in the latest issue of Australian Small-Cap Investigator

Two More Great Stocks to Buy

We looked at a bunch of stocks you could call small-cap blue-chips. We came up with 21 in total…any of those are worthy of a punt.

But there were two particular stocks that we figured have the best risk/reward profile. That is they’re stocks that really could go bust if they can’t turnaround the business…on the flipside we’re looking at gains of 230% and 294% if management can bring these firms back from the brink.

You may think we’re crazy for backing these two stocks if you knew what they are. And we’ll admit they don’t fit the usual mould of our small-cap stock tips. As we wrote in the November issue:


‘…it would be hard to call either company innovative or entrepreneurial.

‘In fat, I’ll admit that both of these firms are the exact opposite of what I usually look for in a speculative small-cap stock.’

In short, take notice of Gerry Harvey. He’s been in the retail business for 50 years, so he’s got a pretty good idea about how the industry works.

So when Mr Harvey says the retail sector is on the brink, we’re prepared to believe it. But we know something else too. While some retail businesses will fail, most won’t. The High Street and shopping malls will still exist.

What you need to figure out as an investor in retail stocks is which companies will survive. Those are the ones to invest in.

If it’s a Big Reward then Take the Risk

That’s the same approach we’ve taken with our latest issue of Australian Small-Cap Investigator. The industry that the two stock tips are involved in is also on the ropes. But we’re making a bet that the companies’ management is smart enough to turn their businesses around and return to profitability.

It’s a pretty big risk, but because of the potential reward, it’s worth it.

Four of the five stocks in the ’5 Stocks to Buy’ list have made good gains after most investors mistakenly thought the companies were in bad shape. We believe most investors have made the same mistake with the two stocks we’ve just tipped.

Cheers,
Kris

From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

Special Report:
Retire Rich, Happy and Free From Money Worries

Daily Reckoning:
Human Evolution is About Using Your Brain

Money Morning:
Natural Gas to Rule the World

Pursuit of Happiness:
Revealed: The UN to Watch Over You on the Internet

Australian Small-Cap Investigator:
How to Make Money From Small-Cap Stocks


Why I’m Bullish on These Beaten-Down Stocks

The Effect of the Yen on Japan’s Horrendous Bear Market

By MoneyMorning.com.au

We like Japan. And we’ve liked it for a long time. But it hasn’t been our most rewarding investment so far.

A horrendous bear market began in 1990. The Nikkei 225 then hit rock bottom at below 8,000 in March 2003 (along with most other global markets). By 2007, it was back over 18,000 and things seemed to be going well. Then along came the global financial crisis.

Now the Nikkei isn’t really far off where it was back in 2003. And the outlook really isn’t pretty, frankly.

There are plenty of reasons to fret about Japan. The spat with China over a group of islands in the East China Sea has dented demand for Japanese goods in China. It doesn’t help that China’s economy was already slowing down anyway.

But the key issue for Japan is its ludicrously strong currency. This has been a mixed blessing for overseas investors. On the one hand, it has protected them from the worst of the Japanese bear market.

James Hunt of US asset manager Tocqueville, a Japan bull, notes that while we think of the Japanese market as being a terrible laggard, that’s mainly down to the strength of the yen. If you price the market in dollars, then the Nikkei and the S&P 500 in the US traded very closely in the decade from 2000.

However,the yen is now becoming a serious problem. Over the last two years, even in dollar terms, Japan has fallen behind. Japanese stocks ‘broke ranks in 2011 and have lagged the S&P 500 by some 25% over the last two years.’

It’s quite simple. Japan exports a lot of stuff. A strong currency makes exports expensive. There’s only so much that people will pay, even for good quality exports.

Japan’s Market
Has Been Getting Steadily Cheaper

Yet, as Hunt also notes, over the past 12 years, Japanese companies have improved on several key measures. As a whole, Japanese companies are more profitable – their margins are bigger – than they were in 2000. On an absolute basis, they are also making more money. And ‘the return on equity has increased from around 6% to around 10%.’

Yet because investors haven’t been keen to buy in to Japan, its companies have also become steadily cheaper. The average dividend yield has grown from 0.8% to 2.3%. The price/earnings ratio has slid, as has the price to book value.

And investors still aren’t willing to pay up for Japanese stocks. Indeed, global fund managers now have their lowest net exposure to Japan in ten years, according to the Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager survey.

But this is a good sign. It’s not that fund managers are stupid. But they have a tendency to herd. If everybody is investing in one area, then that means there’s no one left to join the party. The result is that the party usually ends soon after, in a horrible panic.

On the other hand, if almost no one is investing in a specific area, then the only way is up. If there’s hardly any money being allocated to Japan, then even if there’s more bad news up ahead, it can’t have much impact. And if things start to improve just a little bit, then even a relatively small amount of added investment could have a big impact on stock prices.

Japan is Reaching a Tipping Point

The big question with all of these tremendous value opportunities of course, is ‘what’s the catalyst’? What’s going to happen to make the market recognise the great value that’s here?

This question doesn’t worry me quite as much as it does your average fund manager. Fund managers always look for catalysts and trigger-points. That’s because they aren’t worried about what happens to their fund in ten years’ time.

They’re worried about what their quarterly performance figure is going to look like. So they’re not inclined to be patient. They want performance right now, not five years from now.

I, on the other hand, have at least 30 years to go before I retire (and that’s probably being optimistic these days). So I’m happy to buy assets that I believe are cheap and give them some time to come good.

That said, there are a couple of very clear catalysts that could make things move quite quickly. That’s the forthcoming election (on 16 December), and the increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to do something about the strong yen.

Japan has been printing money. But it’s not been printing enough – certainly not to compete with the likes of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In effect, Japan has been a massive loser in the global race between countries to devalue their currencies and export their way out of trouble.

Anyone operating under the illusion that we live in a world of free-floating currencies where the market sets the value of each nation’s money needs to wake up.

Beyond the yen, most Asian currencies are pegged to the dollar in one way or another. The US hasn’t explicitly said that it wants a weaker dollar, but that’s clearly at least one reason for Ben Bernanke’s constant attacks on the currency. In the UK, Mervyn King has gently nodded to the benefits of a weaker pound on several occasions in the past.

The Swiss have pegged their own currency to the euro to protect their economy from the flood of ‘safe haven’ money seeking refuge over its border. Indeed, one of the ways you’ll know that the eurozone crisis is ending, is that this peg is lifted.

So you can see why the Japanese might be getting annoyed. They are being penalised by the willingness of other countries to hammer their own currencies.

As a result, this year the Bank of Japan come under steadily more pressure to weaken the yen. Japan’s short bull run at the start of this year came as a result of the Bank setting a 1% inflation target, which helped the yen weaken sharply.

The yen strengthened again later in the year as the usual panic over the eurozone hit markets. But now it is off on another fit of weakness as investors hope for more aggressive money-printing from the Bank of Japan after the election.

Will this continue? The truth is I don’t know. I hate to second-guess politicians or the results of elections. The good news is that in this case I don’t have to. Japan is cheap. Whether the catalyst that persuades markets to recognise this comes tomorrow or in a year’s time is by-the-by.

John Stepek
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in MoneyWeek

From the Archives…

Why You Should Always Be Looking to Buy Small Cap Stocks
23-11-2012 – Kris Sayce

China is Now the World’s Biggest Gold Producer – and Consumer
22-11-2012 – Dominic Frisby

The Stock Market Gets Squeezed
21-11-2012 – Murray Dawes

Buy Quality Gold Stocks That Have the ‘Right Stuff’
20-11-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Picking the Hot Commodity Stocks of 2013
19-11-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie


The Effect of the Yen on Japan’s Horrendous Bear Market

Which Works Best — GPS or Road Map? (Part 3)

Trading with Elliott wave analysis
November, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

(Here are Part 1 and Part 2 of this article.)

Think of Investing as a Trip

Here’s my advice: View the Elliott wave Principle as your road map to the market and your investment idea as a trip.

You start the trip with a specific plan in mind, but conditions along the way may force you to alter course. Alternate counts are simply side roads that sometimes end up being the best path.

Elliott’s highly specific rules keep the number of valid interpretations to a minimum. The analyst usually considers the “preferred count” to be the one that satisfies the largest number of guidelines. The top “alternate” is the one that satisfies the next largest number of guidelines, and so on.

There are only three hard-and-fast rules with the Wave Principle:

  1. Wave two cannot retrace more than 100% of wave one.
  2. Typically wave four does not end within the price territory of wave one but may do so from time to time in highly leveraged markets.
  3. Wave three is never the shortest wave of an impulse.

Elliott’s rules give specific “make-or-break” levels for a given interpretation. In Figure 2, for example, if the move labeled (2) continues below the level of the beginning of wave (1), then the originally preferred interpretation would be instantly invalidated.

By eliminating subjectivity, the rules help you firm up your investment strategy — and reduce your risk.

“Are We There Yet?”

You’ve heard that irritating question, “Are we there yet?,” from the back seat just about a million times. Every map has a scale, and it’s the scale that helps me determine how many miles I have to travel before I reach my destination. When using the Wave Principle, Fibonacci relationships are the scale.

Many investors today know that Fibonacci ratios are used for market forecasting. But few realize that Fibonacci analysis of the markets was pioneered by R.N. Elliott. The use of Fibonacci ratios requires a valid Elliott wave interpretation as a starting point. Unfortunately, many non-Elliott analysts try to find Fibonacci proportions between market moves that are not related to each other in any way. This has made the approach appear to be far less valuable than it is.

Elliott wave analysis has two chief insights concerning Fibonacci relationships within waves. First, corrective waves tend to retrace prior impulse waves of the same degree in Fibonacci proportion. For example, wave (2) in Figure 2 retraces 38% of wave (1). That’s a common relationship. Other frequent wave relationships are 50% and 62%. Second, impulse waves of the same degree within a larger impulse sequence tend to be related to one another in Fibonacci proportion. For example, common relationships include wave three traveling 1.62 times the distance traveled by wave one of the same degree. When that occurs, wave five often tends toward equality with wave one of the same degree.

Planning the Trip

Just as I sit down and plan my trips before shoving off, I rely on wave interpretations and Fibonacci relationships to help establish investment strategies and reduce risk exposure when I analyze the markets for our clients. Investors use these same wave analysis methods to help decide where to get into a market, where to get out and at what point to give up on a strategy. The Wave Principle lets you identify the highest probability direction for the market, as you also adopt an optimum position to take advantage of it — all while protecting yourself against lower probability outcomes. You couldn’t ask more from your own GPS.

By the way, we did make it to Cades Cove on our way back across Smoky Mountain National Park. I turned off my GPS and consulted my map. The old tried and true worked like a charm.

 

Who is Jim Martens?
Jim is one of the very few forex Elliott wave instructors in the world, and a long-time editor of EWI’s
Currency Specialty Service. A sought-after speaker, Jim has been successfully applying Elliott since the mid-1980s, including 2 years at the George Soros-affiliated hedge fund, Nexus Capital, Ltd.

Catch up on Jim’s latest thoughts about FX markets and the business of trading them at his Twitter feed.

 

Download Your Free 14-page eBook: “Trading Forex: How the Elliott Wave Principle Can Boost Your Forex Success”Here’s some of what you’ll learn:

  1. Which Elliott waves to trade
  2. Which Elliott waves set up your forex trade
  3. When your analysis is wrong
  4. Guidelines for projecting price targets
  5. How to evaluate an Elliott wave structure
  6. How to use the bigger picture to give you perspective on the market’s next major move

Jim also takes you through two real-world trading examples to reinforce what you’ve learned and apply it to your own trading.

All you need is a free Club EWI profile to download this FREE 14-page eBook now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Which Works Best — GPS or Road Map? (Part 3). EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

 

It’s the Season to Own Utility Stocks

By Chris Vermeulen www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Over the past week I have been keeping my eye on several key sectors and stocks for potentially large end of year rallies to lock in more gains before 2013.

My recent calls have been RIMM (up 54%), AAPL (up 5%), FB (up 8%) so it’s been a great month thus far. That being said there are three other plays that look amazing and one of them is the utilities sector.

Looking back 30 years clearly utilities have a tendency to rally going into year end. What makes this setup so exciting is that the Obama tax for 2013 has caused many investors to lock in capital gains along with dividend gains so the utility sector has recently been beaten.

I always like to cheer for the underdogs because they can make large moves quickly and this season its utility stocks.

30 Year Seasonality – Utilities Stocks

Utility Stocks Seasonality

 

Utility Sector ETFs:

In the graph below I show the main utility ETFs for trading. Simple analysis clearly shows the selling momentum is slowing and where price should go if it can breakout above the red dotted resistance line. Exchange traded funds XLU, FXU, IDU, and DBU are the funds I found to be setting up.

Utility Sector ETFs

 

Utilities Sector Trading Conclusion:

While I feel utilities are about start moving higher it is important to mention that the broad market is setting up for a 1-3 day pullback. If the stock market does pullback this week then we should see utilities pullback also. What I am looking for is a minor pullback in XLU with price holding up above $34 while the stock market pulls back.

If you would like to get my simple yet profitable ETF & Stock Trading Ideas then join my newsletter today: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen