InvestMacro Forex News

Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy shares techniques that helped spot a trading opportunity.

By Elliott Wave International

If you use Elliott in your technical analysis, you may already use Fibonacci ratios to determine targets and retracement levels in your charts. But have you heard of “Fibonacci Clusters?”

Elliott Wave Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy shares his charts to illustrate this technique, which he recently used to identify a critical turning point in Gold. The following lesson is adapted from his March 26 video. Get more lessons from Jeffrey in the free report, 6 Lessons to Help You Spot Trading Opportunities in Any Market.

Performing multiple Fibonacci calculations of a price move often yields concentrations of Fibonacci levels, which act as barriers to price moves.

How do you create a Fibonacci Cluster of support or resistance?

In the following chart, you can see how to draw a line from the most recent swing high to the relevant low� and then connect previous higher highs to the same pivotal low. In the rectangular box, notice where the advance in GCA reversed from a cluster:

Kennedy covers other examples to explain how slingshots, reverse divergence and positive/negative reversals highlight the same momentum signature:

A bullish slingshot forms when prices make higher lows while underlying momentum surpasses previous extremes. Conversely, a bearish slingshot occurs when prices make lower highs while momentum exceeds prior readings.

In subsequent days, Gold prices fell to below $1550.

Learn How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your TradingIf you’d like to learn more about Fibonacci and how to apply it to your trading strategy, download the entire 14-page free eBook, How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading.EWI Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman explains: The Golden Spiral, the Golden Ratio, and the Golden Section How to use Fibonacci Ratios/Multiples in forecasting How to identify market targets and turning points in the markets you trade And more! See how easy it is to use Fibonacci in your trading. Download your free eBook today >>

By J.W. Jones, OptionsTradingSignals.com

David Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com

The SP 500 has been on a tear as we all know especially since the SP 500 bottomed at 1343 several months ago.  My work centers around forecasting using Elliott Wave Theory along with other technical indicators. This helps with projecting the short, intermediate, and longer term paths in the stock market and also precious metals. This larger picture Bull Cycle started in March of 2009 interestingly after an exact 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire move from 1974 to 2000 lows to highs.  At 666, we had completed a major cycle bottom with about 9 years of movement to retrace 26 years of overall bull cycle. That was a major set of 3 waves (Corrective patterns in Elliott Wave Theory) from the 2000 highs to 2002-3 lows, then 2007 highs to 2009 lows.  Once that completed its work, we were free to have a huge new bull market cycle off extreme sentiment and generational lows.

It’s important to understand where we were at in March of 2009 just as much as it is today with the market at all-time highs. Is this the time to bail out of stocks or do we have a lot more upside yet to go? Our short answer is there is quite a bit more upside left in the indexes, but there are multiple patterns that must take place along the way. We will try to lay those out for you here as best we can.

Elliott Wave theory in general calls for 5 full wave cycles in a Bull pattern, with 1, 3, and 5 bullish and 2 and 4 corrective. We are currently in what is often the most bullish of all the patterns, a 3^rd of a 3^rd of a 3^rd. In English, we are in Primary wave 3 of this bull cycle which will be 5 total primary waves.  We are in Major wave 3 of that Primary 3, and in the Intermediate wave 3 of Major wave 3.  That is why the market continues its relentless climb. This primary wave 3 still has lots of work to do because Major wave 3 still has a 4^th wave down and a 5^th wave up to finish, then we need a major 4, then a major 5.  That will complete primary wave 3.  This will then be followed by a Primary wave 4 cycle correction that probably lasts several months, and then a Primary wave 5 cycle to finish this part of the bull market from March 2009 generational lows… and all of that work is going to take time.  Once that entire process from March 2009 has completed, then we should see a much deeper and uglier correction pattern, but we think that is at least 12 months or more away.

What everyone wants to know then is where are we at right now and what are some likely areas for pivot highs and lows ahead?  We should complete this 3^rd of a 3^rd of a 3^rd here shortly and have a wave 4 correction working off what will likely be almost 300 points of upside from  SP 500 1343. We could see as much as 90-120 points of correction in the major index once this wave completes.  Loosely we see 1528-1534 as a possible top and if not then maybe another 30 or so points above that maximum into early June.  This should then trigger that 90-120 point correction, and then be followed by yet another run to highs.

We could go on but then we will lose our readers here for sure, and as it is… this is all projections and postulations, so it’s best to keep the forecast to the next many weeks or few months. Below is a chart we have put together showing the structure of Major wave 3 of Primary 3 since the 1343 lows. Once that Major wave 3 tops out (see the blue 3) then we will have Major 4, then Major 5 to complete Primary wave 3 since the 1074 SP 500 lows.  Whew!

Join us to get daily updates on nearer term directions of the SP 500 and Gold at www.MarketTrendForecast.com

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Israel’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.50 percent and will intervene in the foreign exchange market where the shekel is continuing to appreciate due to the start of natural gas production, rate cuts by other central banks, continued quantitative easing in major economies and an expected moderation in global growth.
    The rate cut by the Bank of Israel (BoI) was a surprise move and the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee said the decisions were reached “outside the regularly scheduled framework.” The next scheduled meeting of the committee is May 27.
    At its last meeting in March, the BoI had said economic activity was continuing to improve but it was still too early to determine if the economy had turned the corner. In 2012 the BoI cut rates by 100 basis points but had left them unchanged so far this year.
   
   

By www.CentralBankNews.info Here’s today’s Central Bank News’ link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 13 May 2013, 07:15 EDT

SPOT MARKET gold bullion prices fell to $1430 an ounce Monday, 1.2% down on where they ended last week, as stock markets also fell and the US Dollar held onto most of its gains from last week.

Silver fell to $23.70 an ounce – 0.8% down on last week’s close – as other commodities also fell, with the exception of copper.

India’s central bank meantime confirmed proposed restrictions on gold imports that one refiner said could lead to gold imports falling by half this year.

Since breaking through ¥100 last week, the Dollar has held most of its gains against the Japanese currency, while the US Dollar Index, which measures the Dollar’s strength against a basket of other currencies, is trading close to one-year highs.

“Yen selling will have been encouraged by the outcome from [last week’s] G7 meeting,” says Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi currency analyst Lee Hardman, “where officials reiterated that they will tolerate Yen weakness as long as it results from the use of domestic instruments to stimulate the Japanese economy.”

The US Federal Reserve meantime has “mapped out a strategy” for winding down its $85 billion a month asset purchase program, known as quantitative easing, according to an article by the Wall Street Journal’s Jon Hilsenrath over the weekend, although “the timing on when to start is still being debated” it adds.

Hilsenrath – whom some fellow journalists have dubbed ‘Fedwire’ on account of a supposed closeness to the Fed – also filed a piece profiling current Fed vice chair Janet Yellen, describing her as a “top contender” to succeed Ben Bernanke as chair.

In a speech earlier this year Yellen said the US faces “a long road back to a healthy job market” and that Fed policymakers are “actively engaged in continuing efforts to promote a stronger economy, more jobs, and better conditions for all workers”.

The so-called speculative net long position of Comex gold futures and options traders – calculated as the difference between ‘bullish’ long and ‘bearish’ short contracts held by noncommercial traders – fell to its lowest reported level since November 2008 last Tuesday, equivalent to 245.3 tonnes, according to weekly data published Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“Underlying moves, while not particularly violent, were bearish,” says a note from Standard Bank.

“Speculative shorts saw 11.8 tonnes added, while 10.7 tonnes in long positions were unwound.”

The Dollar value of India’s trade deficit rose to $17.8 billion last month, up from $10.3 billion in March and $14.0 billion in April 2012, according to government data published Monday. Imports of gold bullion into India, traditionally the world’s biggest gold buying nation, jumped 138% in April as the gold price fell sharply.

Bullion imports have stayed strong this month, according to reports, ahead of today’s Akshaya Tritiya festival as well as proposed import restrictions from the central bank, which were confirmed today.

The Reserve Bank of India confirmed Monday it will implement its proposed restrictions on banks importing gold on a consignment basis, whereby bullion is shipped but ownership remains with the supplier.

“To moderate the demand for gold for domestic use, it has been decided to restrict the import of gold on consignment basis by banks, only to meet the genuine needs of exporters of gold jewelry,” said a statement from the central bank.

“The country’s overall gold imports will be hurt [by these restrictions],” says Ashwini Kapoor, general manager of the precious metals division at state-run refiner MMTC.

“Volumes will fall by 50% in the current fiscal year.”

Over in Europe, German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Monday that Slovenia “can manage” without a bailout.

Ben Traynor

BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Another good week for equities with new record levels in the US and Germany. But how does that fit with the sluggish growth picture we see around the world?

Senior Strategist Ib Fredslund Madsen gives the answer.

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Video by  en.jyskebank.tv

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The Japanese yen has weakened for the fourth time in a row after the G7 meeting held over the weekend .The G7 gave the go ahead to Japanese monetary policies and had no censure on Japan’s money printing policies.

An agreement of a collection action against tax evasion and avoidance was also raised in the G7 meeting by Germany, Britain and other countries involved.

Other topics and developments that were addressed in the meeting were the probability of the eurozone crises was no longer a risk for the economy according to the German Finance minister “Woldgang Scheaeuble “.

The President for European Central Bank also addressed the meeting saying the G7 countries did not reach out to the central banks to boost the economy.

As the yen continuous to weaken the shares in Japan increases to the highest levels in more than five years   .

Other market industries in Asia are forced to trade at a lower rate after economic reports from china on production and retail sales came in line with estimates.

According to the bank governors and finance representatives that were present at the G7 meeting; after analyzing and testing the Japanese strategy, they concluded they will monitor its impact on currencies.

Among the top industries in Japan ,Nissan Motor increased by 5.1% after forecasting a 22% increase in profits for the current business year while Sharp increased by 10.67% after Nikkei newspaper planned to downsize its operations in Europe according to reports .

The post G7 reaffirms commitment on exchange rates appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Eurozone finance ministers and bank representatives are expected to meet to discuss the bailout payments for Greece and Cyprus.

The finance ministers are expected to sign an agreement and latest installment to bailout Greece while Cyrus are awaiting an approval for an estimated 3bn euros ( $3.9bn ) for its first half of its bailout package .

Slovenia have also raised concerns as to when the meeting would take place and have seen an opportunity to possibly request assistance from the European authorities .

According to reports, Slovenia is thinking of going ahead with the plan to avoid a bailout.

The founder and chief executive of Thought4Action said to reporters from CNBC  “ Slovenia is much more related to what’s going on or went on in Cyprus and I would be very nervous if I was Slovenian – because there is a precedent of bad banking management and a tax on people’s deposits “

According to the founder of Thought4Action and economists, Slovenia is believed to be going through a similar situation with Cyprus regarding the increase in number of high profile firms and companies going through severe crises.

Greece is due to receive approximately 7.5bn euros for their latest payment from an estimated lump sum of 240bn-euro bailout.

The government is planning to use the money to pay wages, pensions and other financial debts.

According to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) ,one of the “troika” of the international lenders behind the bailout ,Greece have made a progress in tackling its budget over the years  but also believe that the structural reforms of the economy have been insufficient have not addressed the tax problems.

The post Greece and Cyprus expected bailout fund appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By MoneyMorning.com.au

To get on Aussie TV as a financial expert you have to say the right things.

It’s the same if you want to get in the mainstream papers.

But if you say the wrong things, you won’t have a chance. Sure, you see some alternative views crop up. But mostly it’s a guest appearance from one of those ‘crazy’ Americans – Peter Schiff or Gerald Celente. Or a ‘crazy’ man with a funny accent – Marc Faber.

Heaven forbid the Aussie networks should allow their viewers to see someone based locally who has a different view to the mainstream.

That’s why you won’t see your editor on any of those fancy sets chewing the fat about the financial markets. But hey, that’s fine with us. Although, we do have one regret…

It would be great to get more exposure so we can warn others about the perils of the financial market. Not that we’re worried the market will fall in a heap tomorrow. But we do worry that investors are piling in from the fear of missing out.

And that has some stocks trading at crazy-high valuations.

But seeing as there isn’t much we can do to warn the 99% of the Aussie population who will never hear or read a word we say or write, you may as well use their ignorance to your advantage.

The fact that ‘blind’ investors are rushing in to buy stocks is reason alone for us not to consider selling…yet.

These ‘late-to-the-party’ rallies can have quite an impact on stocks. In fact, the late-rally gains can be some of the most lucrative.

If you set the starting point for the recent stock rally at June 2012, we’re almost one year in. Although the real burst of gains didn’t start until the last two weeks of November – an early Santa rally if you like.

Stocks peaked in March and have been weaker since then. But the 300-point gain since mid-April has caught many short and by surprise. Many folks saw the downturn as an opportunity to sell, thinking the run was over. But with stock prices heading north again, our guess is these investors are buying back in along with those who missed the first part of the rally.

It’s this buying pressure that has had a key impact on the next move for the Aussie market…

The Two Big Game-Changers for the Australian Market

We make no apology for continuing the theme of following the market as it hovers around this key level. As we’ve said before, we believed the market would trade sideways for the rest of this year, stuck in a range between 4,900 and 5,150 points.

But two key events over the past week or so have caused us to revisit that view: the bumper Aussie bank profits and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate cut.

These two factors helped push the Australian market above 5,200 points, closing Friday at 5,206.10.

This is above the two previous high points (March and late April). This has us wondering if the market has settled into a new range…a range that could see stocks shoot much higher from here:

Source: Google Finance

To be honest, it’s too early to tell for sure. Technical trader, Murray Dawes’ ‘false break‘ analysis would tell traders to be careful about buying stocks on a breakout.

But if stocks hold above this level it could be the driver for the next leg of the rally – the fear of missing out rally. This is why we’ve encouraged you to hold onto your stocks at this point. That said, if you’re sitting on big gains, we wouldn’t stop you from taking some profits off the table.

It’s a fine balancing act. You should protect your investments in the event of the market going into a nosedive, but without the risk of selling too early, missing out on further gains and then panic-buying at the wrong time.

That’s why it’s always useful for you to take into account a range of viewpoints. You then need to figure out which fits your situation best.

Part of that is trying to figure out the next phase of the market, so you can work out where you’re likely to find the biggest gains.

The big gainers over the past year have been dividend stocks. That’s true of blue-chip and small-cap dividend payers. Half the stocks on our Australian Small-Cap Investigator buy list are dividend payers, so it goes to show you the widespread nature of the urge for yield.

Investors to Ditch Income Stocks for…Income Stocks

But over the next two years, we believe there will be a subtle change in what investors look for. We don’t for a minute believe investors will chase yields all the way down to 2% or 3% on blue-chip dividend payers – unless investors anticipate rapid dividend growth for these stocks.

No, more likely is that investors will start to search for growth and try to pre-empt dividend growth in the small end of the market. And when that happens, most of the small-cap dividend payers on the Australian Small-Cap Investigator buy list should benefit.

These stocks have a great chance of boosting dividends as the central bank money torrent sweeps through the Australian economy.

Make no mistake: punting on small-cap stocks is risky at any time. Never more so that when the market hits a new high point (even though this isn’t a record high, it is a five-year high).

But whereas small-cap growth stocks usually lead stocks higher, that hasn’t happened with this rally because investors have eyed income. That’s about to change.

Hold on to your dividend payers, because we dare say you’re picking up a handsome yield. But if you want to take part in the next part of the rally – the late-to-the-party rally – you need to make sure your portfolio has exposure to growth stocks too.

Cheers,
Kris
Join me on Google+

Ed Note: For years it was the investing Holy Grail – stocks that grow and pay a dividend. Investors saw that the idea was a sham when infrastructure companies went bust after promising both growth and yield. But after the yield-led rally over the past year, investors will start looking for these Holy Grail stocks again. In today’s Money Morning Premium, Kris reveals how, where and why this will happen. Click here to upgrade now.

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