InvestMacro Forex News

By Profit Confidential

Politicians and the mainstream will certainly love this…

Last week, Moody’s Investors Service changed its outlook on the U.S. national debt from negative to stable. (Source: Reuters, July 18, 2013.)

Despite the credit reporting agency’s “upgrade” on U.S. national debt, my opinion remains the same: the U.S. national debt has taken on a life of its own, growing like a bad cancer with no cure in sight.

Consider this:

In June of this year, the U.S. government registered a surplus of $117 billion after a budget deficit of $139 billion in May. On the surface that sounds great. But look a little closer, and we see that interest paid on the U.S. national debt for the month of June was $93.03 billion.

In the fiscal year so far (October 2012 to June 2013), the U.S. government has paid $345.26 billion as interest. For the full fiscal year (ending October 31, 2013), interest rate expense on the U.S. national debt is expected to reach $420.61 billion. (Source: Department of the Treasury, Financial Management Service, July 11, 2013.)

That’s almost half a trillion per year on interest payments only! And we must remember the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates artificially low. If interest rates doubled (which is not a long-shot concept, considering that even if rates did double from here, they would still be below the 30-year average), the government interest rate payments could read $1.0 trillion a year!

Looking at the U.S. national debt as a percentage of our gross domestic product (GDP), it stood at 105.07% at the end of the first quarter of this year. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed July 19, 2013.)

Comparatively, in the first quarter of 2012, the U.S. national debt-to-GDP ratio was 100.8%. But I thought the Obama Administration said it would cut back on our debt?

Looking back further, in the early 1980s, the ratio of U.S. national debt to GDP stood just above 30%. With the national debt close to reaching $17.0 trillion, looking at the nominal value, the U.S. is the most indebted nation in the global economy.

But this is just one piece of the puzzle. Failing cities, due to staggering budget deficits and troubled states, can cause U.S. national debt to increase even more. We heard Friday morning that Detroit filed for bankruptcy, leaving more than 100,000 creditors astray. (Source: Detroit Free Press, July 18, 2013.) The federal government bailed out General Motors Company (NYSE/GM); will it bail out “Motor City”?

Dear reader, U.S. national debt has skyrocketed—that’s not a hidden fact anymore. And this is a major concern for the sovereignty of this nation. Our credit rating is still top-notch, but I beg to ask the question: how long can it last?

When the government incurs a budget deficit, it must come up with money to pay for its expenses. The government can pay its bills by either increasing the national debt (selling bonds bought by a Federal Reserve that just prints money and gives it to the government) or by raising taxes. But raising taxes is not popular with politicians because such an action would threaten their chances of getting re-elected.

Higher interest rates are on their way. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen from 1.50% one year ago to 2.47% today. Getting away from annual trillion-dollar deficits will be difficult for the government, as what it saves on budget cuts will be compromised by higher interest payments and possible bailouts for cities and states.

(I encourage my readers to keep an eye on the “debt clock” we maintain on our sister web site, www.investmentcontrarians.com.)

Michael’s Personal Notes:

Wherever we turn to in the media today, we hear or read the U.S. economy is witnessing a period of economic growth. The media and politicians cite an improving luxury car market, rising real estate prices, and jobs growth.

On the contrary, and as I have been writing in these pages for months (if not years), economic growth in the U.S. economy can only occur when consumers are optimistic and feel better about spending; the opposite of that is happening right now.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, sales at restaurants and bars in the U.S. economy plummeted the most in June since February of 2008. Sales at restaurants and bars also witnessed a decline in May. (Source: Wall Street Journal, July 15, 2013.)

In times of economic growth, consumers go out and spend money. As purchases at restaurants and bars are discretionary, this tells me consumers in the U.S. either don’t really want to spend or don’t have much to spend.

U.S. companies are also painting a picture of slowing consumer spending. Consider General Electric Company (NYSE/GE), one of the pioneer companies in the U.S. economy. General Electric (GE) reported second-quarter earnings that beat estimates, but the company’s revenues declined two percent from the same period a year ago. (Source: General Electric Company web site, July 19, 2013.) In times of economic growth, you want to see earnings increasing with revenues.

Why aren’t the consumers in the U.S. economy spending?

Wages of employees in the U.S. economy in real terms, adjusted for inflation, are declining. In June, real average weekly earnings for all employees in the U.S. declined 0.1% from May. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 16, 2013.)

The jobs market in the U.S. economy is still weak. The “official” figures do not include people who have given up looking for work and those who want full-time work but can only get part-time work. And the majority of job creation since the credit crisis hit has been in the low-wage-paying sectors.

Troubles for the average joe just don’t end here. Right now, we are seeing rising oil prices—and this will put more pressure on consumer spending in the U.S.

So what’s the truth of the matter? There is no real economic growth in the U.S. economy.

Article by profitconfidential.com

By Profit Confidential

Wherever we turn to in the media today, we hear or read the U.S. economy is witnessing a period of economic growth. The media and politicians cite an improving luxury car market, rising real estate prices, and jobs growth.

On the contrary, and as I have been writing in these pages for months (if not years), economic growth in the U.S. economy can only occur when consumers are optimistic and feel better about spending; the opposite of that is happening right now.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, sales at restaurants and bars in the U.S. economy plummeted the most in June since February of 2008. Sales at restaurants and bars also witnessed a decline in May. (Source: Wall Street Journal, July 15, 2013.)

In times of economic growth, consumers go out and spend money. As purchases at restaurants and bars are discretionary, this tells me consumers in the U.S. either don’t really want to spend or don’t have much to spend.

U.S. companies are also painting a picture of slowing consumer spending. Consider General Electric Company (NYSE/GE), one of the pioneer companies in the U.S. economy. General Electric (GE) reported second-quarter earnings that beat estimates, but the company’s revenues declined two percent from the same period a year ago. (Source: General Electric Company web site, July 19, 2013.) In times of economic growth, you want to see earnings increasing with revenues.

Why aren’t the consumers in the U.S. economy spending?

Wages of employees in the U.S. economy in real terms, adjusted for inflation, are declining. In June, real average weekly earnings for all employees in the U.S. declined 0.1% from May. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 16, 2013.)

The jobs market in the U.S. economy is still weak. The “official” figures do not include people who have given up looking for work and those who want full-time work but can only get part-time work. And the majority of job creation since the credit crisis hit has been in the low-wage-paying sectors.

Troubles for the average joe just don’t end here. Right now, we are seeing rising oil prices—and this will put more pressure on consumer spending in the U.S.

So what’s the truth of the matter? There is no real economic growth in the U.S. economy

Article by profitconfidential.com

By Profit Confidential

A positive bias remains to current stock market action. Earnings are still modest, but for the most part, many are positive.

The S&P 500 Index did an excellent job recovering from a small (Federal Reserve/market-misread-induced) consolidation in June. Since the beginning of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has led other key indices—that is until recently.

Major stock market indices have been usurped by the stunning performance of the Russell 2000 Index. When small-cap stocks start moving, it’s a powerful signal.

Strength in small-cap stocks reveals a lot of innate aspects in investor sentiment. It means that there is more speculative fervor and willingness on the part of investors to buy less safe names. It also means that the market expects improving business conditions from domestic businesses, as small-cap stocks typically aren’t as global as larger companies.

I’ve noticed a stock market trend over the last couple of quarters. Smaller technology companies have been reporting better financial results. But many of the positions I watch haven’t moved materially on the stock market until only recently. Perhaps there is some correlation to the performance of component companies in the Russell 2000.

Regardless, this index has been very strong over the last three weeks.

In the larger-cap space, many of the stock market’s biggest brand names are reporting decent earnings with mediocre sales growth. Once again, it’s looking like it’s going to be another quarter of one financial metric, either revenues or earnings, coming up short of Wall Street consensus.

The most important thing is stability of operations and meeting or beating one Wall Street estimate. That’s my read on how this stock market feels about the current reporting season.

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) saw its second-quarter revenues fall, but earnings beat consensus. The company boosted its full-year earnings outlook.

It is very much an environment where large-cap companies continue to struggle with top-line growth.

Typically, small-cap stocks report later than large-caps. These companies don’t have big accounting departments to get the numbers out as quickly as their larger counterparts. With recent strong action in the Russell 2000 index, there is speculation that smaller companies are going to be reporting improving business conditions.

The argument can easily be made that the stock market has already bet on current earnings with the strong performance since January. With that scenario, stocks should be selling off on their earnings news, but this isn’t quite the case. (See “Why Investor Sentiment Is Still Bullish in the Face of Lackluster Economic News.”)

This market is still in a kind of confirmation mode, looking for financial results that show things aren’t coming apart. Optimism in investor sentiment is still very much the result of the Federal Reserve and the stock market playing cat-and-mouse with the consequences of extreme monetary policy.

The stock market wants the Federal Reserve to keep playing the game, recognizing that it must eventually end. It is very much a stalemate until corporate top-line growth takes the lead—if it can.

Article by profitconfidential.com

By Profit Confidential

I recall my first time seeing the electric sports car marketed by Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ/TSLA). While my son thought it was cool, I thought it was gimmicky.

If I had listened to my son, it would have been a great investment because Tesla was trading around $33.00 at that time in November 2012. The stock spiked to $133.26 on July 15 this year, up a whopping 272.64% over the past 52 weeks, according to my stock analysis.

Even as Tesla moved higher (as you can see in the stock chart above), I was still not convinced, as my stock analysis suggested that General Motors Company (NYSE/GM) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE/F) made more sense.

The reasoning behind my stock analysis was simple: the comparative metrics between Tesla versus General Motors (GM) and Ford easily favored the old Detroit icons. But I clearly underestimated the future expectations of the company.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Tesla fell 14% the day following its high after Goldman Sachs suggested the stock was worth only $85.00, based on the company’s stock analysis.

The stock rallied $16.00 after analyst Andrea James of Dougherty & Co. announced that it had estimated Tesla was worth at least $200.00 and perhaps as much as $300.00 if the company executed. (Source: Rosenberg, A., “Tesla will double again: Analyst,” CNBC web site, July 17, 2013.)

So while I was previously thinking of a short trade with Tesla, I’m now thinking the company—which is the brainchild of Elon Musk, who made hundreds of millions via tech ventures—may be worth a closer look, based on my stock analysis. The man is simply brilliant.

While the current valuation of Tesla is out of whack, according to my stock analysis, the company definitely has long-term promise—especially if it can deliver on its plan and the demand for high-end electric cars continues to pick up.

After reading through some of the details of Musk’s plans, I’m becoming more intrigued. At the center of the company’s strategy is the building of a “Supercharger” network that the company predicts will eventually cover about 98% of the United States by 2015.

As my stock analysis indicates, the concept is really interesting, based on the building of the Supercharger network. The Supercharger service can recharge a Tesla car via the changing of the battery pack, and it’s free if you buy the more powerful battery. The whole process to automatically change the battery takes less than 90 seconds, according to the company.

This is impressive, and considering the high cost of fuel and the rising demand of electric cars, I actually see some promise in Tesla especially since the company’s vehicles are much more sporty than its competitors’ vehicles. While the cost of a Tesla vehicle is comparatively high, the company is working at producing cheaper vehicles with a sub-$40,000 price tag in order to drive sales.

So my stock analysis suggests that you should keep an eye on Tesla. I wouldn’t be a buyer now, but this stock could become a more interesting stock to consider buying on price weakness, or you can consider trading via call options. For example, if Andrea James is right, you can buy the January 2015 $190.00 call trading at a current premium of $17.70. The breakeven would be $207.70; but as my stock analysis indicates, this trade is risky, as Tesla would need to jump 73% before you’d reach this breakeven point—which is difficult, but achievable.

Article by profitconfidential.com

By MoneyMorning.com.au

When do you know the stock market has bottomed?

About six months after it has happened.

It’s a sad fact for investors. You don’t know for sure that the market has hit rock bottom until long after the fact.

The Australian share market slumped more than 10% during the six weeks leading up to June 25. It’s up 7.9% since then.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the market has bottomed. We’re only talking three weeks. We’ll only know for certain if 25 June was a good time to buy five or six months from now.

But one thing we’re almost certain of is that there’s a changing of the guard in one of the world’s most important markets…

No. We’re not talking about the resource sector.

Quite frankly it’s hard to see anyone knocking the likes of BHP Billiton [ASX: BHP] or Rio Tinto [ASX: RIO] off their perch.

Even for all the attention given Fortescue Metals [ASX: FMG], it’s still barely one-sixteenth the size of BHP, and one-tenth the size of Rio.

Besides, if Fortescue grew to be three, four, five or ten times greater, it won’t impact BHP’s market position. It’s not as though steel makers can make a higher quality steel by using Fortescue’s iron ore rather than BHP’s iron ore.

Once the ore becomes the pure metal, there’s no difference…that means there’s no point of difference between the products. In the resource sector it all comes down to volume and speed – how much can they ship and how soon?

The sector we’re talking about is different. Upstarts and start-ups can have a major impact on established and seemingly invincible companies. We’re talking about the tech sector…

Avoiding Valuation Bubbles

You only have to look at Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL]. This time last year, investors loved the stock. Its shares traded above USD$600 and folks started talking about it becoming a USD$1,000 stock.

Things looked pretty good when the stock hit USD$700. But then the stock went into reverse. Today it’s trading for USD$425.

Why the about face?

Apple today is where Microsoft [NASDAQ: MSFT] was in 2000.

The company has gained as much market share as it can in the key segments of smartphones, tablets, and music and video content.

When Apple traded at USD$600, investors assumed Apple could keep growing at the same rate that had taken it from USD$300.

But here’s the problem. In order for Apple to hit USD$1,000 and keep the same valuation, the company would need to increase profits to USD$100 billion – a 150% profit increase in just one year.

Either investors didn’t think about that when they paid USD$600 a year ago or they thought the Apple boom would never end. In other words, with the benefit of hindsight it’s clear the Apple share price was a price bubble.

Just like the housing bubble, dot-com bubble, resource bubble and the recent gold bubble.

That’s bad news for Apple. It means rather than growing revenues, profits and market share, Apple has to go into defensive mode, just like Microsoft 12 years ago.

While that was bad news for Microsoft and will be bad news for Apple, it does of course create opportunities…

Finding the Next Global Tech Stock ‘Superstars’

This is where tech stocks are different to resource stocks. Steel is steel. And copper is copper. But one mobile device or software program isn’t necessarily the same as another mobile device or software program.

Because of this difference and the potential to offer product differentiation to the market, the tech sector is much more attractive to venture capitalists.

Take recent numbers from the US National Venture Capital Association (NVCA). In the first six months of 2013, the NVCA records 577 venture capital deals. Of those, 251 relate to software and 67 media and entertainment.

That’s Apple’s biggest problem. Entrepreneurs see the profits achievable in the tech industry and so they want a part of it. If there’s one thing true in business it’s that success breeds competition.

And there’s a whole lot of competition in the tech sector.

It’s the striving for success that presents tech investors with such great growth opportunities. Investors who bought Apple stock for less that USD$20 in 2004 probably couldn’t care less about the 40% price drop over the past eight months.

But for the new investors looking for growth, it’s fair to say you won’t find that growth in Apple any more.

That’s the excitement of looking for opportunities in tech stocks. When the big old companies like Microsoft and Apple reach their growth limits, it’s time to look elsewhere.

And that means finding the Microsoft’s and Apple’s of tomorrow. Trust us, they’re out there. We figure we’ve found at least a couple of potential future tech ‘superstars’ in Revolutionary Tech Investor.

But with so much going on in this sector, the opportunities will keep coming. We’ll keep looking for the stocks with the best innovations that have the best chance of exploiting their chosen market.

Cheers,
Kris+

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From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

Special Report: The Sixth Revolution

Daily Reckoning: The Misallocated Savings of the Chinese Banking System

Money Morning: If You Think Australian Stocks Are Too Expensive, Think Again…

Pursuit of Happiness: The Exciting Move From Globalisation to Localisation

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Yesterday we told you your online activities have likely been monitored and your information already gleaned. But with some simple checks and measures in place you can reduce your risk.

Aside from The Dark Web, the shadowy underworld of online activity, there are some other aspects of technology that you need to concern yourself with.

Take for instance our ever increasing knowledge of the human genome and the current work to map the neurones and connections of the brain. This will help take the world forward in neuroscience and our understanding of human biology. It will also help us develop computer and artificial intelligence systems to improve the efficiencies of the world.

Don’t Think About It, It Might Land You in the Slammer

But of course there is a dark side to all this. What if particular brain activity and genes that you had meant that were potentially a psychopath, or a career criminal?

Think about it. What if because of your DNA, and your brainwaves, scientists could predict that you were more likely to commit crime in your life?

What if they had the power to lock you up…even before you’d actually committed a crime? And who’s to say you would ever commit a crime? Because science also says environmental factors play a significant role in criminal activity.

We all know governments love to find a way to control citizens and they always find a way to take an authoritarian approach to crime. With the use of powerful supercomputers, algorithms, molecular and neuroscience maybe the next step in fighting crime is to predict it. It’s already happening.

Scientists in New Mexico are already using brain scans to predict criminal behaviour,

‘The scientists studied the brains of 3,000 convicted criminals using magnetic resonance imaging. They specifically studied the anterior cingulated cortex (ACC), a brain region associated with error processing. What they found is that inmates with low ACC activity were twice as likely to commit crimes within four years of being released as those with high ACC activity.‘

And if the study of the brain goes a way to predicting criminal behaviour, what if even before a child is born genetics will be able to determine criminal traits?

With readily available technology you could manipulate the unborn child’s genes to silence the unwanted genes, breeding crime out of future generations.

Not only does that kind of genetic manipulation throw up a whole range of ethical issues, but it also goes a long way towards generations of genetically modified children. Is that wrong? Or is that the inevitable way of the future?

That’s a whole different discussion which we won’t delve into now. But one thing’s for sure, molecular technology will have a big impact on the lives of generations now and generations that aren’t even born yet.

Iraq, Iran…What About Albert Park?

Finally one of the more underground elements of the dark side of technology is accessibility of illegal things to everyone.

With the internet effectively connecting everyone it means more and more people have the resources available to take part in illegal activity.

Put it this way. Right now without too much stress we could anonymously get online, find our way through to a black market website and purchase guns, high powered lasers or illegal substances.  It’s as easy as shopping on Catch of The Day or eBay.

And if you’re a smart kid, with an interest in science, there’s opportunity (with the wrong influences) to start down a path that leads to some pretty terrifying stuff. Michio Kaku, a famous Theoretical Physicist, describes the potential dark side technology has for the generations to come,

‘You can create a laser beam, a laser beam with exactly the energy of the difference between these two [Uranium, U235 and U238] so that you can activate one but not the other. In other words laser beams can be used to zap these atoms and separate out U235 from U238. Well this means in some sense somebody in their basement at some point in the future might be able to build a separation device to create U235. That’s a nightmare we don’t have yet, but it’s a nightmare we will have in the coming years as the price of laser enrichment of uranium goes down.‘

What Kaku is describing is the potential for someone with access to the right tools in the near future to create enriched uranium. In other words weapons grade uranium. Forget Iraq and Iran, it might mean weapons of mass destruction (WMD’s) next door!

The building works across from our office looks to have a suspiciously fortified basement being constructed…maybe it’ll be a secret science lab? A nuclear test facility? It’s unlikely, but it’s possible in the near future. Who really knows what goes on in the neighbour’s basement science lab?

It’s a pretty extreme example of the kind of dark activity technology provides access to. But you need to understand that it’s something that will always lurk around the corner in the shadows. The dark side of technology is always going to be complimentary to the positive advances it brings.

The best way to combat the dark side of technology is to understand it and don’t get paranoid about it. By getting a grasp of the things that are possible, and the likelihood of things actually occurring, you will have a better understanding of how to deal with it.

Yes you will likely be hit with a virus of malware, yes your information at some point will likely be used without permission and yes your neighbour will likely make some homemade rockets (WMD’s are unlikely). But don’t get paranoid about it. There are more positives  to take out of technology than bad points.

Just be smart. Have secure passwords, don’t divulge with information so freely, be aware of your surroundings and take care online just like you would if you were walking the streets at night on your own.

When you see the warning signs, when you notice something is awry in your bank account, when you read that Nigerian email, or notice your son is spending way too much time in the basement with his lasers, you’ll be able to take action.

As we all have a greater understanding of technology, the good and the bad, we will be able to help shape the future to ensure good technology always outstrips the dark side.

Sam Volkering+
Technology Analyst, Revolutionary Tech Investor

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From the Archives…

Why Invest ‘Hard’ When You Can Invest ‘Easy’?
19-07-2013 – Kris Sayce

Read This Before You Buy Another Stock or Bond…
18-07-2013 – Murray Dawes

Could Uranium be the Best Investment in 2013?
17-07-2013 – Dr Alex Cowie

Asteroid Mining and the Commercialisation of Space
16-07-2013 – Sam Volkering

Why the Australian Share Market is Heading Even Higher
15-07-2013 – Kris Sayce

AUDUSD is facing 0.9305 resistance again, a break above this level will indicate that the downtrend from 1.0582 (Apr 11 high) had completed at 0.8998 already, then the following upward movement could bring price back to 1.0000 zone. On the downside, as long as 0.9305 resistance holds, the price action from 0.8998 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend, one more fall towards 0.8500 is still possible after consolidation.

Provided by ForexCycle.com

By The Sizemore Letter

From Covestor:

A good investing IQ goes hand in hand with strong financial knowledge and decision-making skills. That’s something that the majority of Americans lack, according to the latest nationwide study that seeks to measure the financial capability of U.S. adults.

The National Financial Capability Study sponsored by the FINRA Investor Education Foundation asked participants five questions that tested their fundamental financial knowledge. They attempted to cover only the basics, such as principles related to risk and diversification, the relationship between bond prices and interest rates, and principles of compound interest and inflation.

Only 39% of those questioned were able to get the right answer for four or more of the questions.

“In other words, the average investor would have a failing grade,”  says Charles Sizemore, portfolio manager on the Covestor platform.”This is very troubling because never before have investors had to take this much responsibility for their own finances. They lack the basic knowledge they need to invest and manage their financial lives.”

…

In his latest Google Hangout interview, Sizemore says to read these three things if you want to start boosting your investment IQ:

1) “Financial Times”. He calls it the “best newspaper available” for understanding how current events relate to your investments. It’s a daily read, he says.

2) “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It’s a book that deals with the frailty of human knowledge as it relates to the markets, and how luck is often mistaken for skill.

3) Go to sites including www.covestor.com to track what other investors are doing in the markets and to learn about the reasons behind their moves.

This replay represents statements made live on July 18, 2013. All opinions included in this material are as of July 18, 2013 and are subject to change. The opinions and views expressed herein are of the portfolio manager and may differ from other managers, or the firm as a whole.

SUBSCRIBE to Sizemore Insights via e-mail today.

Editor’s Note: Oanda, one of the largest and most popular online forex brokers, has teamed up with Autochartist to allow customers of Oanda to use Autochartist with their accounts. See full explanation press release below:

————————————————————————————–

New technical research solution integrates the power of Autochartist with OANDA’s award-winning fxTrade platform and MT4 offering

• Clients benefit from unique fxTradeNOW functionality that enables them to trade directly from the analysis screen, for faster reaction to trading opportunities

NEW YORK – July 22, 2013 – OANDA has introduced a powerful new solution for currency traders who use technical analysis in their trading strategies. The pioneering retail forex dealer has partnered with Autochartist to develop OANDA Technical Analysis, an automated technical research application that is integrated with OANDA’s popular trading platform, fxTrade. It also has an optional MT4 plug-in for traders who use automated trading strategies.

OANDA Technical Analysis is available free to all OANDA trading clients (practice account users will have access for a limited time; analysis in the demo environment is delayed by five candlesticks). The software scans more than 10,000 market data points per minute to identify price trends and chart patterns. It then automatically alerts clients to potential trading opportunities as they emerge and enables them to trade directly from the analysis screen using OANDA’s unique fxTradeNOW feature.

“Trading forex is risky and traders often use technical analysis to look for price trends that help inform their decisions in this highly volatile market. OANDA Technical Analysis automates that process,” said Trevor Young, Senior Director of Product Management, OANDA. “It’s a powerful tool that helps traders include advanced technical analysis as part of their overall trading strategy, without the need to spend time developing complex algorithms. The solution’s large-scale automated market scanning and customizable auto-alerts help to call out potential trading opportunities that traders may otherwise overlook.”

Young added that the Autochartist-powered solution is the first to come from OANDA’s new industry partnership program.

“We are working with a select group of trusted partners, such as Autochartist, that complement our technology and enable us to enrich the trading experience we offer to clients,” he said. “The goal is to broaden OANDA’s offering through a software development ecosystem based on strategic partnerships with companies that share our values of fairness, transparency, and innovation.”

Ilan Azbel, President and CEO of Autochartist, said his firm is excited to be part of OANDA’s partner ecosystem and contributing to the development of innovative solutions.

“With OANDA Technical Analysis, OANDA has launched a revolutionary product that enables clients to execute trades from directly inside the application through integrated ‘fxTradeNOW’ functionality – this saves traders the time and hassle of launching a separate browser window to execute trades once they’ve done their technical analysis,” Mr. Azbel said. “It’s exciting for us that OANDA has plans to go way beyond our ‘vanilla’ offering to fully integrate the Autochartist API with their Java web and mobile platforms, bringing the power of our two platforms together for the benefit of traders.”

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Monday, 22 July 08:10 EST

The WHOLESALE price of gold leapt in thin Asian trade Monday morning, jumping 1.7% inside half-a-minute and then extending its run in London to new 1-month highs at $1322 per ounce.

 London-listed gold equities followed, with shares in Randgold Resources – tipped today by analysts at both J.P.Morgan and Morgan Stanley as better able to cut costs and avoid write-downs than competitors – rose 2.5%.

 So too however did shares in African Barrick Gold – named by Morgan Stanley as a gold miner facing “heightened risks [with] limited scope to raise returns.”

 Russian gold miner Petropavlovsk, which by end-May had sold forward 70% of its 2013 output to hedge the falling gold price, meantime rose over 4.3% on the London stock market, taking its rally of the last two weeks above 40%.

 Shares in the former million-ounce miner remained 75% below the start of 2013, however.

 Randgold Resources was trading today 25% down for the year so far.

 “Gold broke through a key technical level at $1300,” said one Singapore trader to Reuters this morning.

 The first breach of this “psychologically important” level since end-June, however, gold “is still a good $230 off the technically important 200-day moving average,” says the daily note from Germany’s Commerzbank.

“For a month,” adds technical analysis from Societe Generale analysts, “the price has been evolving within a steep corrective channel.”

 “Gold is now facing short-term resistance at April’s low of $1322.”

 Cutting its forecast gold price average for 2013 by 6% last week, Barclays Capital says nearly 1-in-6 miner operations in South Africa will lose money if its $1200 prediction for July to October proves true.

 South African gold mine workers are demanding “up to 61% pay increases,” saysThe Daily Telegraph, citing Commerzbank analysis.

 Last week the world’s third-largest gold miner, AngloGold Ashanti, said it’s likely to writedown between $2.2 and $2.6 billion on its assets following the spring’s 25% drop in the gold price.

 “The mining companies,” says Commerzbank, “which have their backs against the wall in any case on account of the fallen gold prices, are unable to meet such unrealistic demands.”

 Back in Asia overnight, “We heard some gold refiners in Switzerland will close in August for the summer holidays,” a Hong Kong dealer told Reuters.

 “They have stopped taking orders.”

 Switzerland is the major producer of the 1-kilo gold bullion bars preferred by Asian investors with 0.9999 fineness as opposed to the wholesale standard of 0.995.

Gold premiums in Shanghai however, over and above the international benchmark of London settlement, edged another dollar lower again today, falling to $21 per ounce.

 Interest rates for borrowing gold were meantime unchanged Monday from Friday in London, heart of the world’s wholesale bullion market.

 Rising demand from gold miners wanting to hedge their exposure to further price falls ahead was last week cited for driving up gold borrowing costs so far in July.

 “Demand has slowed down” in India – the world’s No.1 gold consumer market – according to Bombay Bullion Association director Suresh Jain, pointing to the traditional summer shutdown in gold-buying festivals and weddings.

 US gold futures and options meantime saw a marked rise in speculative bullishness last week, new data showed after Friday’s close.

 The so-called speculative “net long” position – meaning the balance of all bullish minus bets held by non-industry players – jumped 37% to a four-week high equal to 135 tonnes of gold bullion.

 The sharpest percentage jump since November 2008, however, the move – which was driven by bearish speculators closing their positions as prices rose – was only a four-month record by weight.

 Compared to the end of 2012, the spec’ net long position stood 78% lower.

 “Despite the pullback in gold equities,” says Morgan Stanley’s note, “we see risk of further de-rating triggered by reserve downgrades and weak cash flows.”

 “We believe,” says J.P.Morgan’s analysis, “that premium ratings are appropriate for [producers] with…high-quality assets and operational capability to cut their cloth according to prevailing market conditions.”

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich, Switzerland for just 0.5% commission.

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