InvestMacro Forex News

USDCAD breaks below 1.0345 support, suggesting that the uptrend from 1.0245 has completed at 1.0445. Further decline to test 1.0245 support could be seen, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the downtrend from 1.0608, then the following downward movement could bring price to 1.0150 area. On the upside, as long as 1.0245 support holds, the fall from 1.0445 would possibly be correction of the uptrend from 1.0245, one more rise to 1.0500 area to complete to upward movement is still possible.

Daily Forex Analysis

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Stocks go down, stocks go up again.

What’s an investor to make of it all…?

As we mentioned yesterday, the Australian stock market had fallen 1.8% on Wednesday. Yesterday it gained 1.1%.

If the Aussie share market keeps doing that on alternate days then the market is in for a steady decline over the coming months. That wouldn’t be a good result.

But as bad as things seem every now and then, the stock market still has a habit of turning up nice surprises to help stocks rebound. Is that sustainable? You’ll have to wait and see…

 Finally, a Positive ‘Bolt from the Blue’

Yesterday the stock market was lazily trading along, going nowhere fast. Then suddenly, the latest economic news came out of China. As the Financial Times reported:

 ‘The world’s second biggest economy said exports in July rose 5.1 per cent year on year, rebounding from a 3.1 per cent drop in June. Imports increased 10.9 per cent, up from a 0.7 per cent fall in June.

‘The numbers are stronger than expected and have raised hopes that activity has revived in what is widely seen as the engine of global growth.’

Before we knew it, the S&P/ASX 200 was up over 60 points. It would be a good day after all.

As always, we try not to get too excited. Even though we’ve set a target of the Aussie index hitting 7,000 points in 2015, we know markets don’t move in straight lines — up or down.

And even though your editor is undoubtedly the most bullish out of everyone in our Albert Park offices, we know that a bolt out of the blue can turn the market upside down…when we least expect it.

Of course the recently big obstacles in the way of a rising market haven’t been bolts from the blue at all. They’ve been repeats of the same old story — central bank meddling.

Saying that, even China’s export and import numbers can’t be completely detached from central bank meddling. It’s a fair argument to say the numbers (if genuine) are only possible because central banks keep printing money and providing artificial stimulus to various economies.

Anyway, for someone as bullish as us, you’d think yesterday afternoon’s stock rally would have had us in raptures. But it didn’t…

 Proof it Was a Great Time to Buy Stocks

Although we recommend you invest in dividend-paying stocks in order to collect ongoing reliable income, our favourite end of the market is growth stocks — especially small-cap growth stocks.

Small-cap stocks are great because you only need to invest (OK, punt) a small amount but you still have the potential to make a big return. That’s because small-caps are risky and they tend to be hyper-volatile.

That means they aren’t suitable for all investors.

But there’s something else about small-cap stocks. When the market rallies, small-cap stocks tend to lead the way. That’s because they attract the type of investor who hopes to make a killing from beaten-down, risky stocks.

And because these stocks are so small it only takes relatively few investors to pile in, in order to push the shares higher. In short, when punters are happy to take a risk on small-cap stocks it’s a signal that the rest of the market could be about to take off.

We saw that happen over the past month, as the chart below shows:

Key: Blue line – S&P/ASX 200; Red line – S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index
Source: Google Finance

As you can see, the Emerging Companies Index gained 9% over the past few weeks compared to 5.3% for the S&P/ASX 200. That chart shows you why we’ve been so excited about getting into small-caps over the past few weeks — telling you to buy stocks while most others told you to sell.

Stocks Pause Before Another Rally

However, yesterday’s  market action was different. It wasn’t the small-cap stocks that did the best, it was the blue-chip stocks. That’s enough to give us a brief pause for thought. We ask: have the punters paused too?

It’s possible. The stock market has put in a good run. It’s now hovering around that psychologically important 5,000-point level. So right now it wouldn’t surprise us to see the market hover around this level a bit more.

It would be great if we were wrong and stocks took off in a flash. But for now we see it as a better than 50% chance that Aussie stocks will trade mostly sideways, perhaps for another few weeks.

Be clear: that doesn’t mean you should sell stocks. We don’t see a big crash looming on the horizon. In fact, we say it’s still a good time to buy, especially if the volatility calms down.

Just be aware that you probably won’t see the quick-fire gains that stocks gave you over the past month. But if you were waiting for an opportunity to buy into the market before the next rally, now is the time to do it.

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Peru’s central bank held its policy reference rate steady at 4.25 percent, as expected, saying it expects inflation to return to the bank’s target range in the third quarter due to better food supply and inflation expectations that are anchored to the range.
    The Central Bank of Peru (BCRP), which has held rates steady since April 2011, also said the board’s decision was based on economic growth being close to the economy’s potential growth level, the persistence of uncertainty over international financial conditions and that the rate of inflation was affected by temporary supply factors.
    The external market is still weak and this affects the prices and volumes of export products, it added.
    In July Peru’s headline inflation rate rose to 3.24 percent in July from 2.77 percent in June, above the central bank’s target range of 1.0 to 2.0 percent. The bank said the rise in inflation was due to higher prices of some perishable food products and transportation.

    In the first quarter, Peru’s Gross Domestic Product rose 2.1 percent from the previous quarter for annual growth of 4.8 percent, down from 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
    Since April the central bank has been making its reserve requirements more flexible to “foster a more orderly evolution of credit and promote increased financing resources in soles,” BCRP said, adding this had released domestic currency funds of 1 billion soles and foreign currency funds that total $150 million.
    The central bank estimates that another $200 million would be released the rest of the year.
    “If necessary, the Board will adopt additional measures to make the regime of required reserves more flexible,” the bank said.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

By MoneyMorning.com.au

‘We were young, but we had good advice and good ideas and lots of enthusiasm.’
– Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft Corporation

You don’t necessarily have to be young to start a business, but you most definitely need to have a good idea, a ton of enthusiasm and very good advice.

A business is like an addition to the family. You live it, you breathe it and it consumes a lot of your waking (and sometimes sleeping) hours.

Self-employment and a business aren’t the same thing. In my opinion self-employment is where you ‘buy yourself a job’ e.g. a tradesman leaves an employer and sets up as a contractor or you buy a franchise and work in it twelve hours a day.

You have a genuine business when you generate revenue without the need for you to be there e.g. Lorna Jane migrated from self-employment (making and selling leotards herself) to having a fully-fledged retail business. Another is Ralph Lauren, who began selling his own ties in the Empire State Building and is now an international fashion business. Boost Juice is yet another example.

Not everyone makes the transition from self-employment to businessperson. There are a number of reasons for this:

a)     A large percentage of start-up business ventures fail;

b)     Some don’t have the drive or skillsets necessary to take a business to the next level;

c)      Some are quite happy being a sole operator and not having to deal with staff;

d)     Everyone has different levels of ambition and once they attain a certain level of income they are content; and/or

e)     Some people are in business for a certain lifestyle e.g. running a café by the beach.

Going into business can be exciting and a little nerve-wracking. But most of all it’s a lot of hard work.

When you leave full-time employment you’ll forgo some or all of the following benefits:

1.  A regular income
2. Employer funded superannuation contributions
3. Sick leave entitlements
4. Annual Leave entitlements
5. Long service leave
6. Maternity leave
7. Study leave
8. Possibly a company car
9. Possibly annual bonuses
10. Possibly employer-funded education expenses
11. Possibly employer-funded attendance at conferences

The trap most people fall into when considering a business is they look at replacing their income only and forget to place a value on all the other benefits they receive. The added benefits could account for a further 30% to 50% of your regular income.

You generally derive the income and added benefits from working a forty to forty-five-hour week. Self-employment, on the other hand, is usually significantly more than 9am to 5pm. In addition to the time you spend in the business there is the extra time you spend on the business (book work, business planning, managing cash flows etc.).

This isn’t meant to scare you off from ever starting a business because there is an enormous sense of achievement (and not to mention wealth) in creating and building a successful enterprise.

What I’m trying to do is ensure you aren’t a statistic for small business failures. My guess is a good percentage of people who go into business think it will be easy being their own boss and believe there are all these ‘tax perks’ associated with owning a business. They underestimate the capital, attention to income and costs, discipline and effort required to operate and manage a business successfully.

You could be a brilliant lawyer/engineer/electrician etc. but if you are lax in keeping records on the time you spend with clients and tardy in sending out invoices, your business will soon run into cash flow problems. The staff, landlord, electricity bill, phone bill all need to be paid — these are concerns you don’t have when you’re an employee.

Being good at a particular profession or trade is only one of the ingredients for business success (this is the ‘good idea’ component of Bill Gates’ quote).

We’ll look at the other ingredients later on, but first let’s assume you have settled on your good idea for a business. There will be three options available to you to implement your business idea:

1.  Buy an existing business
2. Purchase a franchise (new or existing)
3. Establish your own

 Buying a business

 This option can be appealing. Someone else has done a lot of the hard work — there is income from existing clientele; fixtures and fittings are in place; advertising; brand establishment etc.

However there are many traps to be aware of when buying an existing business. You should move very cautiously before committing to buy an established business.

1.  Why is the business owner really selling?
2. Are the assets of the business valued accurately?
3. Do the sales fluctuate with the seasons? For example in Cairns the tourist season is June to September and if you looked at this period in isolation it would give you a distorted picture of the business.
4. Are the expenses accurate?
5. Are the profits real? Go back through past tax returns to determine whether there is a trend in profit growth. Look to see whether the profit is in line with industry average.
6. Are you paying a fair price for the business? Most businesses sell for a multiple of profit plus the costs of stock and other assets (depreciated value of fixtures and fittings). The multiple applied to the profit will depend on the particular industry — some sell for one and others for up to six or seven times recurring income.

 Purchase a Franchise

 The theoretical benefit of a franchise is you’re buying a proven business model backed by a head office that will provide marketing assistance, business guidance, negotiation of leases, bulk buying and brand awareness.

Depending on how well known the brand is will determine the cost to acquire a franchise. A McDonalds franchise can cost in excess of $1 million, whereas a mowing/cleaning/dog washing franchise may be $10,000–$20,000.

In addition to the upfront expense to acquire a franchise you must pay an annual royalty fee of 7%–12% of gross revenue to the franchisor (this is to cover head office expenses and a contribution to marketing).

Statistics indicate franchises have a better success track record than independent small businesses. However, buying a franchise doesn’t guarantee business success. You must still work smart and hard to ensure the business runs profitably.

Prior to committing to buying a franchise you must undertake the usual due diligence and don’t just accept the figures and projection the franchisor provides you with (these can be slightly inflated to make the business proposition look attractive). Talk to other franchise owners so you can gauge whether the business system is all the franchisor says it is.

 Establish your own business

 Starting your own business from scratch avoids the risks of buying a business and a franchise i.e. paying too much for something that may not deliver.

Starting a business from scratch requires the following:

1.  Access to enough money to keep you afloat until the business begins generating its own cash flow.
2. Discipline and energy to enable you to persist through the initial start-up phase (the ‘lots of effort and expenses but very little reward’ phase).
3. Adapting your product/service to suit the market — this trial and error phase is essential to developing your business.
4. Finding out what the price of your product/service should be. At what price will the consumer think your product/service is fair value?
5. What is the most effective and economical way to market your product?
6. Finding suitable premises and lease conditions.
7. Recruiting staff.

Going into business (either established or new) requires careful thought and planning. The reason most businesses fail is due to lack of planning and failure to understand that the ‘buck’ (financial responsibility) stops with the business owner.

Having an in-depth appreciation of the financial structure of your business is crucial. Knowing where your money is coming from (revenue) and where it is going to (expenses) are essential to your business success.

Remember the old saying: ‘there is no new way to go broke — it’s always too much debt.’ Be careful to not over-borrow or commit to significant ongoing expenses (e.g. lease on elaborate premises). Locking in expenses (interest costs and/or leases) can place your business in jeopardy when the economy softens and demand for your product or service shrinks.

For some entrepreneurs the financial side of the business is boring. They prefer to spend their time on the areas of the business they’re passionate about (who can blame them, as they didn’t go into business to be an accountant). This is a mistake.

In my opinion you must teach yourself the financial basics, otherwise you run the risk of becoming one of the statistics for business failure.

In addition to your basic knowledge on finance and law, it’s vital you seek expert guidance from a competent accountant and solicitor.

There are a number of ways to structure the ownership of your business:

1.  Sole Trader
2. Partnership
3. Proprietary Limited Company

As to which is appropriate for you will depend on your situation and ambitions. A good accountant can guide you through a process of elimination to decide on the best structure.

It’s essential to get the business structure right. This will save you a lot of money in later years.

Remember that before you sign anything always seek professional advice. Better to know upfront what you’re liable for than to have a nasty surprise at a later date.

Good advice costs, but not paying for advice could cost a whole lot more.

Another form of advice you’ll find invaluable is that of a trusted mentor. Seek out successful business people (preferably in the same line of business) who are happy to share their insights and wisdom. Better to learn from other people’s mistakes than make them yourself.

The other types of advice you may seek from time to time are:

1.  Small business advisory services run by the State Government
2. Specialist business consultants

Successful, well-run businesses don’t happen by accident. They are the product of ideas, energy, innovation, a determination to strive to improve, a willingness to learn and develop; and finally, a genuine desire to add real value to their customers/clients lives.

Vern Gowdie
Editor, Gowdie Family Wealth

[This was an extract from a book by Vern Gowdie written for his three daughters. The book’s title is A Parent’s Gift of Knowledge.

From the Archives…

Is This the Spark to Send Australian Property Crashing?
26-07-2013 – Kris Sayce

Why it’s Deflation…Not Inflation, that’s Heading Our Way
25-07-2013 – Vern Gowdie

Why You Must Avoid This Big Investing Mistake…
24-07-2013 – Kris Sayce

The Dark Side of Technology: Part 2
23-07-2013 – Sam Volkering

The Dark Side of Technology: Part 1
22-07-2013 – Sam Volkering

By www.CentralBankNews.info Here’s today’s Central Bank News’ link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.

By WallStreetDaily.com

The way I see it, you can buy thinner pencils or binders, skimp on gigabytes, find a backpack with fewer pockets – even load up on mix-and-match clothes instead of buying new outfits.

It won’t make a huge difference.

If you have children, you’re about to spend a lot of money between now and September. It’s a fact of life – like football in the fall and Frosty the Snowman blaring in the mall before you even roast the Thanksgiving turkey.

It can’t be avoided, and neither can the pre-back-to-school hype about retail sales and just how much you’re bound to shell out this year.

Ultimately, the National Retail Federation (NRF) calculates that you’re likely to spend $634.78 (on average) on clothes, shoes, basic supplies and electronics for your school-age children. The good news is, that’s down a cool $50, or 7.8% less than last year.

With that said, it doesn’t seem like consumers are slowing down at all. If anything, they’re upping their shopping game…

Wallets Opening Faster Than Ever

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 23% year-to-date. This proves that shoppers have unlatched their purses and are making purchases at companies like Macy’s (M), Netflix (NFLX) and Best Buy (BBY), which are all tracked by the ETF.

At the same time, same-store sales rose 4.1% in June from the same period a year earlier, according to Retail Metrics Inc. That represents the largest increase since January.

And online retailers are faring just as well…

Global online retail and travel spending will surpass the $1.2-trillion mark this year, according to eMarketer. And the U.S. e-commerce market alone will generate $395.28 billion in business-to-consumer sales in 2013, with retail accounting for around 66%, or $261 billion. That represents a healthy 16% growth over 2012.

Indeed, be it online or in store, the back-to-school season is second only to the winter holidays when it comes to retail sales.

To prepare your portfolio to profit from the trend, here are some companies that are uniquely positioned to end the season on top.

The Gap Inc. (GPS)

The best aspect of The Gap is that it’s not a one-trick pony. Combined with Old Navy and Banana Republic, shares are trading at 10-year highs.

In June, same-store sales jumped 7% over 2012 and earnings climbed 43%. Not to mention that two interesting events will take place for the company in August…

Quarterly results come out on August 22– and they haven’t missed the mark in five years. Plus, Banana Republic will launch a highly anticipated, limited-edition collection from Issa London (best known for being the designer for the Duchess of Cambridge’s engagement dress in 2010).

Staples (SPLS)

Only time will tell how the upcoming $1.2-billion merger of Office Depot (ODP) and OfficeMax (OMX) will pan out. But don’t count out Staples.

One thing I like about Staples – besides a 3.3% yield – is its huge online retail presence. According to Internet Retailer, it’s the No. 2 internet retailer, worldwide, ranked by sales.

Online sales increased 5% in 2012, to $10.6 billion, even as brick-and-mortar store sales fell. That’s $3.6 billion in total revenue more than OfficeMax.

Wal-Mart (WMT)

You probably thought you knew all you needed to about Wal-Mart, considering it has more than 10,800 stores visited each week by 245 million customers. But what I like about the company is a unique online approach to back-to-school shopping called “Classrooms by Walmart.”

You see, about 35,000 parents registered for the site last year, which included perks like 4% cash back, free shipping and a teacher/school search for lists. You get the drift.

Last year, about 16,000 schools submitted supply lists to the shopping site. That’s up to 40,000 so far in 2013.

The Finish Line Inc. (FINL)

What might be most interesting about this shoe retailer is its recent agreement with Macy’s to sell its athletic shoes in Finish Line-branded shops in more than 450 Macy’s stores and on Macys.com.

Finish Line expects the Macy’s business to generate revenue of $250 million by 2017 and total sales projections of $2.2 billion.

The company always seems to have something in its pipeline for improving customer experiences. This year involves a streamlined in-store pick-up process and better product search filtering on its website.

Bottom line: As consumers dive into the back-to-school season, it might be a good idea to load up on retail stocks ahead of time.

Ahead of the tape,

Karen Canella

The post What’s Your Back-to-School Budget? appeared first on  | Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: What’s Your Back-to-School Budget?

Article by Investazor.com

This article follows the introduction of new comers to the CFD trading (with a focus on the possibility to trade online) by answering the most common 12 questions on the topic.

According to the definition the contract for difference (also known as CFD) represents a contract between two different market players, one is a buyer and one is a seller, that states that the seller pays the buyer the difference between the t0 value of the asset and the future value at the contract time. In the scenario where the difference has a negative value, the buyer pays to the seller). In common practice this derivatives type of instrument is used for speculative trades.

The history of the CFD’s comes from the early 1990s (primarily used by hedge funds to cover up positions on the London Stock Exchange, the big advantage was that no tax ware paid)  but the wide availability came in the late 2000s when retail traders discovered the potential behind this derivative financial instrument.

1) What Is CFD trading ?

CFD trading gives you the opportunity to trade market moves (in most cases with the help of leverage) on all scenarios, if you open a short position your prediction is for a drop of the price, on the other hand if you open a long position you estimate that the price will rise. For each point (traders call them pips) the price moves up you win or lose due to the difference between the initial price and the real time price.

2) Basic Example Of a Trade ?

Let’s say that you what to trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO)  shares, and based on your prediction the price will go up, that means that you place a buy order (long position) for 2,000 CFD’s at the price of 40$ :

#1 Scenario

In the price rises to 45$ and you decide to sell at that point your profit is (45$-40$) x 2,000 = 10,000$

#2 Scenario

If the price goes down to 37.5$ and you make a smart move and limit your loss, your final down slip will be: (37.5$-40$) x 2,000 =  -5000$

3) How Can I Trade ?

The simplest way to trade is by using an online broker that will provide you with access to markets by a trading platform or software. Usually you need only one platform and account to access global markets  (with some small exceptions).

4) What Assets Are Available For Trading ?

Due to the market expansion and wide spread along retail traders, the market offer has gone up, in these days you can trade almost everything starting from stocks, bonds and finishing with currency, indices and commodities.

5) A Lot of People Talk About Leverage. What is Leverage ?

Leverage is used to increase potential of an investment by increasing the value of margin (margin represents the borrowed capital, this usually comes from your broker).

6) Do CFD’s Provide Higher Leverage ?

Yes! In comparison with traditional trading instruments. The average market rate starts at about 2% as margin requirement, but this varies a lot form asset to asset, for some it goes as much as 30%.

7) What Is The Biggest Advantage ?

Some financial markets apply rules for shorting stocks, some that imply even borrowing the stock before taking action or margin requirements, in the case of CFD’s there are no rules for shorting or long positions. Another advantage is the fact that since there no actual owning of that certain asset, borrowing of shorting costs do not exist.

8) What is the Biggest Disadvantage ?

Not all contract for difference industries are regulated by official financial regulators (usually from the state), and this can cause a lot of suspicion over the service providers.

Tip #1 – CFD Trading Strategies

One of the most common cfd trading strategy is called forex scalping and it offers traders the option to profit from small market moves by opening and closing positions fast after gaining the first pips.

Tip #2 – Day Trading Requirements

Most of the markets ask from traders minimum amounts of capital in order to day trade, or are most likely to post limits on the amount of trades done in a day from an account. By entering a CFD market the regulations are not applied, traders have the option to place unlimited amounts of trades and minimum account amounts start from 100$ at respectable market players.

Conclusion

Although cfd trading looks like a very simple job, it is NOT and many beginners  fall in the rush trap ending up losing money. The most common causes and lack of knowledge regarding leverage, margin and money management. Before opening any position be sure to make a checklist of actions and document all possible documentation available.

The post CFD Trading – Top 8 Questions and Answers About appeared first on investazor.com.

By The Sizemore Letter

Sex.

There, I got your attention.

I find that when I start an article with the word “demographics,” eyes glaze over.  But when I start the same article with “sex,” the reader snaps to attention.  Funny how that works.

Yet in the context of the economy and the financial markets, they are the same thing.  Consumer spending is roughly 70% of the economy according to the official GDP numbers.  But the reality is that it is responsible for 100% of our economic activity.   Adam Smith commented in The Wealth of Nations that “Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production,” and he was spot on.  Everything—investment in productive capacity, business-to-business spending, government spending, etc.—eventually flows down to consumer spending.  And the biggest factors that influence our spending  habits are family formation and stage of life.

Think of it like this.  A young man spends his money attracting a mate…a man in early middle age spends his money raising the resulting offspring…a man in late middle age saves his money in preparation for retirement…and an older man doesn’t spend much on anything.

Oversimplified?  Absolutely.  But you get the point I’m making.  Our age is a major factor in our spending habits as individual families.

Why does this matter?  Because if it is true of individual families, it is also true of the country as a whole.  An economy dominated by young families will see high rates of consumer spending and debt growth, whereas an economy dominated by those in late middle age will see slower growth and higher rates of debt repayment.

This is where we are today.  America’s Baby Boomers are now on the downward slope of the consumer life cycle.  Since the 1960s, they’ve provided economic tailwinds; but those tailwinds have now turned into some pretty harsh headwinds.

I bring all of this up because I saw a guest piece in John Mauldin’s e-letter co-written by Rob Arnott—one of the most respected minds in finance—that reaches the same conclusions (see Mind the (Expectations) Gap: Demographic Trends and GDP).

Arnott focuses more on workforce growth and dependency ratios than on consumer spending patterns (which I consider a case of the tail wagging the dog), but this is a case where all roads lead to Rome. We enjoyed higher-than-normal growth rates in the decades following 1950, and we will now suffer through lower than average growth rates in the decade ahead.

Importantly, we are going to experience growth; Arnott is not a “doom and gloomer” forecasting a multi-decade depression. But it’s going to be a much different environment than what we are used to.

Using Japan as an example, Arnott writes:

It is human nature to consider our personal experience to have been “normal,” so we evaluate subsequent events in comparison with this self-referential “norm.” If the people of Japan consider the former tailwind of 2–3% to be “normal,” then a future 2% headwind will feel like a ponderous 4–5% drag, relative to expectations. On average, the countries in this analysis enjoyed benign demographic profiles that boosted GDP growth by around 1% per year during much of the past six decades. (Read full article here).

What are we to do with this information?  In truth, there is no much you can “do” about demographics.  They are the future that has already been written.  But you can invest accordingly.  Understand that top-line sales growth will probably not be as robust as in years past.  Earnings per share growth will come disproportionately from share buybacks—as has been the case for the past several years.

Importantly, you should also invest for income.  Focus on companies with stable businesses that have a long history of raising their dividends.  And, where possible, look for growth in companies that target emerging market consumers and young American families.  The Millennials are starting to enter the family formation stage, and this generation will be the primary engine of domestic growth for the next 30 years.

This post first appeared on InvestorPlace.

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