U.S. Stocks Lose BIG – Here Is How You Can Spot the NEXT Big Turn

An excerpt from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist market letter

By Elliott Wave International

On January 24, the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ all lost close to two percent. On a day like that, it’s worth talking about the one indicator they don’t often mention on financial networks – namely, market sentiment.

When is the best time to get out of the stock market? When everyone else is invested and extremely optimistic. When is the best time to buy, then? Exactly: when you see the opposite sentiment.

That’s a contrarian view of the market — and it can be a financial lifesaver.

What’s more, as Robert Prechter, the president of Elliott Wave International, puts it, “the greater the degree of the advance that is ending, the greater the optimism at its peak.”

Below is an excerpt from Prechter’s recent Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly newsletter he has published since 1978. It shows you one way how Bob finds bearish and bullish extremes in the market.

Learn how you can see 15 more charts from the Theorist that tell a very clear story for 2014.


Conviction among the Bulls
(Robert Prechter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, December 2013)

The Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) reported 93% bulls twice, on November 15 and 22. Two readings this high are a rarity.

The weekly Investors Intelligence poll on December 11 and 18 showed over 80% bulls among committed advisors (i.e. bulls/(bulls+bears), omitting those expecting a correction), the highest reading since 1987.

Such extreme readings in conjunction are even rarer.

The Rydex family-of-funds data afford good sentiment indicators. Recent figures show a record low investment in conservative money-market funds, meaning nearly everyone is invested in stocks and bonds.

At the same time, the ratio of money in bullish stock funds vs. bearish stock funds is over 5:1, and per sentimenTrader.com the ratio of money in leveraged bull vs. bear funds (see Figure 2) is 10:1!

This reading leaves past extremes in the dust. If you study Figure 2, you will notice that the biggest rush has come in the past six months, which is precisely the time that stocks’ ascent has been slowing!

In other words, optimism is soaring while upside momentum is waning.

Once this epic complacency melts, I doubt we will see such a ratio again in our lifetimes.


15 Hand-Picked Charts to Help You See What’s Coming in the Markets
Prepare for 2014 with a complimentary issue of Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave TheoristHave you ever seen price charts that tell a story clearly? Prechter chose 15 charts to explain to his subscribers where the financial markets are headed in 2014. These charts cover the S&P 500, NASDAQ, the Dow, commodities, gold, and mutual funds.This information prepares you to be on the right side of the market’s next move. And today, you have a rare opportunity to look at the whole issue of Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist — FREE.

“Charts tell the truth,” says Prechter. Here is your chance to see what truths these charts are telling. If a picture is worth a thousand words, then this latest publication is like reading more than 15,000 words of his market analysis.

Get your FREE 10-page issue of Robert Prechter’s Theorist now >>

 

 

 

Gold Market Traders: Metals And Stock Market will Swap Trends – Part II

The Logical Fear Trade – Emotions vs. Analysis & Logic

 

By Chris Vermeulen

I apologize now for the Christmas colored charts below… Its a lot of red and green but these are the most understood colors for knowing what ranges means (bullish or bearish).

This was a very emotion week for traders. The strong selling Thursday and Friday has traders and investors running for the door and panicking out of positions. While I did close out our long SP500 swing trading on Thursday to lock in a profitable trade, I do feel as though we can re-enter next week a better price.

The only ones feeling pain today are those who do not have enough self-discipline to create rules and trade by them. Again this is talked about in GREAT DETAIL in my new book. If this is you, I recommend buying my book and reading it this weekend as it’s a quick and simple read. There is a paperback version or instant PDF download available: Get Book.

Without self-discipline no amount of courses are trading services will make you a successful trader.

Let’s get technical and jump into the charts…

 

Momentum Index – The Intraday Extreme Overbought/sold indicator

This is an indicator I follow daily to understand how strong the selling is. If it is broad based or sector related. The last two sessions clearly shows is broad based and that the market has moved to quickly in one direction and is primed for a knee jerk reaction bounce.

oversold1

 

Swing Trading Cycles : 3-8 Weekly Overbought/Sold Market Cycles

This is a fantastic tool for timing key pivot lows and highs in the broad market. We are nearing another key pivot low but there is still room for more selling next week.

oversold2

 

Options Traders Are Fearful of Continued Selling

If you don’t know what the put/call ratio is, in simple terms it tells us when the majority of traders are buying put options (expecting stocks to fall, ratio of 1.0+), and when they are overly bullish (expecting stocks to rise, ratio below 0.60).

The chart below shows everyone is leaning towards more selling in the stock market. I use this as a contrarian indicator.

PCRatio

 

The Fear Trade – Shorting Fear with an Instrument that Naturally Loses Value: VXX

There is a lot of interesting way to trade the stock market and once way it through shorting the VXX ETF during bull markets. Instead of buying a long position in stocks, you could simply short the VXX fund. This thing loses value over time because of the way it’s managed/constructed. So logic says, shorting it on bounces can be very rewarding during times when fear is high.

Keep in mind this fund and its underlying index moves FAST with 20-30% percent swings… Trade small position sizes if you ever touch this thing…

VXX3

 

Weekly Technical Trading Report Conclusion:

In short, (pardon the pun) I feel the stock market is setting up for another big bounce. The technicals and longer term trend remains bullish. I trade with the trend until proven wrong. Only then will I change the direction and trade with the new trend.

Get These Reports Free Each Week: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen
Algorithmic Trader

 

 

 

Where To Get FX Research and Trade Ideas

 

FX Research and Trading Platform

One of the biggest challenges that face Forex traders today is where to find research and trade ideas all in one place. Forex traders are bombarded with a slew of emails, tweets and other offers that they need to filter through in order to try and get some of this research. Having to navigate through all of these websites and all of this noise can be a great distraction for the Forex trader. Forex traders need to free themselves from distractions and time spent away from the markets may mean missed opportunities.

Until now no such platform or website really existed where the Forex trader can have his FX research analyzes trades and trade in one location.  The FirstMacro platform offers that one destination where traders can use highest quality research, fundamental data and news sources which are all completely integrated. The platform also offers Kruger analytics which interpret any chart of any product for Amy time frame. This tool is a great resource for those new to technical analysis. This can also be a valuable tool for the more advanced technician who is looking to confirm a strategy or gain more insight.

 

Some of the features available in FirstMacro are:

  • Intraday commentary from leading economists
  • Real-time technical commentary and levels for any market
  • Live FX radio with all the latest news and economic data
  • Daily insights and trading strategy
  • Innovative social media feeds and video channels
  • Customized alerts and quantitative analytics

To learn more a please visit www.clmforex.com

 

Disclaimer: Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for difference, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk. These products may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available from the company website. Please read and consider the PDS before making any decision to trade Core Liquidity Markets’ products. The risks must be understood prior to trading. Core Liquidity Markets refers to Core Liquidity Markets Pty Ltd. Core Liquidity Markets is an Australian company which is registered with ASIC, ACN 164 994 049. Core Liquidity Markets is an authorized representative of Direct FX Trading Pty Ltd (AFSL) Number 305539, which is the authorizing Licensee and Principal.

 

 

USDCHF: Sees Bearish Momentum, Targets The 0.8859 Level (The Week Ahead)

USDCHF: Sees Bearish Momentum, Targets The 0.8859 Level

USDCHF: With the pair declining sharply to reverse its previous week gains the past week, it now looks to extend that weakness in the new week. While holding below the 0.8986 level, the above view remains valid. This development has paved the way for a run at the 0.8900 level, its psycho level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8859 level, its Dec 30 2013 low with a cut through here turning focus to the 00.8800 level. A turn below here will set the stage for a push lower towards the 0.8750 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. Conversely, to annul its present weakness and resume its short term uptrend now on hold, the pair must break and hold above the 0.9156 level, its Jan 21 2014 high, a tough call at its current price levels. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level, its psycho where a violation will aim at the 0.9249 level, its Nov 07’2013 high and then the 0.9300 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on further bear threats.

By www.fxtechstrategy.com

 

 

Final Conclusions On Forex Scalping

Article by Investazor.com

Scalping-Guide-Conclusions-25.01.2014Forex Scalping is a basic trading strategy based on short and quick transactions, due to bring results only if it is used repeatedly and on long term periods. It implies high volume trades, but with big impacts both on the profit and loss.

To sum up, the main ideas from the Forex Scalping Complete Strategy Guide are:

As a beginner, it is important to understand the main characteristics of scalping before using such a system. A newbie trader should know that is mandatory for him to use analysis for forecast and money management. He should know everything about the instrument he is trading; try to hunt sharp price movements; make a full use of his leverage and correctly choose the strategy that suits him.

The life of a trader will be easier if he would know how to correctly choose his broker. He should take his time to analyze spreads and offers from different brokerage houses, since it is relevant to him to have very low costs. Getting to trade with a professional broker would bring a scalper advanced trading tools, tight spreads and a certainty that he will get his money back from the market maker. A trustworthy broker would also take care of his client’s interests.

It’s not enough to have a good broker and to know what’s scalping about. A trader, who uses a system like this and also a trader in general, should know very well his trading instruments. For scalpers, the best trading instruments are those with high leverage, liquidity and high volatility. Currency pairs are usually the common instrument found in scalpers portfolios. Because of their low costs, aggressive price movements and high liquidity, the most profitable currencies are: EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, AUDCHF and USDTRY from the well-known groups majors, carry pairs and exotic currencies.

Scalping can be done in any part of a trading session, but there are some moments when the market has higher volatility, giving scalpers more opportunities to open and close trades. Scalpers should look for high volatility on their instruments that are usually depending on the exchange market on which they are traded. Frequently, the publishing of macro-economic indicators is followed by a high volatility moment, especially if the releases diverge from the analyst forecasts. This gives good scalping opportunities; therefore this kind of moments should be hunted by scalpers.

Traders, particularly scalpers, should surpass their normal psychological condition in order to face the market pressures. They should evolve their capability to keep calm in different market setups and create their own trading discipline, in order to always keep focused and maintain their regular trade sizes. Sometimes, these characteristics are the hardest to be developed and controlled in a trader, but without them, the probability to be thrown out of the market becomes really high.

There is no complete scalping strategy guide without a trading system. The strategy can be created based on fundamental analysis or technical analysis. If a scalper doesn’t have the necessary knowledge to create a strategy based on macro-economic interpretation, it is easier for him to look for technical trading strategies. We proposed in our guide three types of scalping strategies based on price formations and technical indicators, which can be used to start a scalping experience.

If you have read this Forex Scalping Complete Strategy Guide, and you consider that you fully understood what this is about, be sure to match your answers to the most important questions for a scalper to the ones written in our last two articles from this handbook.

The post Final Conclusions On Forex Scalping appeared first on investazor.com.

Just How Secure is a Smart Home Security System?

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Long ago, before the tech boom and bust, Mr Smith started to build a house. It was 1999 and the electrical industry was all abuzz about future smart homes.

Being a young man, keen to prepare his new home for the future, he decided to build a ‘smart home‘. So as he wired it, he loaded the house with additional CAT 5 cabling on top of the copper cabling.

Every room in the house would have the latest and greatest data cabling to ensure that when the smart appliances became available, he could just plug them in. Simple.

He pondered the possibilities. Such as…

Turning on the air conditioning at home before he left work on a hot Melbourne day.

Turning on the spa while driving back from a long weekend of snowboarding.

It was easy. He just needed to make a phone call on the dedicated separate line at the house. Enter the code and the appliance in question would whir into life.

Of course, all of this would work through his new mobile phone at the time, a Nokia 3210.

It didn’t matter about the added expense of the data cabling. Because he was ready for the smart home.

And it came. Smart home appliances have been available for a couple of years now.

Based on some of the products on display at this year’s International CES (formerly the Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas, home automation products will be the tech toy of choice this year. Even for those who aren’t tech savvy.

While Mr Smith envisioned the smart home, it didn’t happen the way he planned. It wasn’t long before a CAT 5 cable became old news and was replaced by CAT6a cables. And within in a couple of years fibre optic cabling was all the electrical and data industry could talk about.

Unpredictable Changes

But then another unpredictable change happened…Wi-Fi.

That’s right. Instead of home automation needing data points, appliances connect wirelessly to your Wi-Fi network.

As I mentioned before, the concept for home automation isn’t new. Products like Google’s recent acquisition of Nest, have hit the mainstream.  And there are two reasons behind the growing popularity behind appliance integration.

You see, aside from the convenience of home automation, the idea was that you could save money on bills. For instance, lighting that automatically turns off when you leave the room. And simply turning off your ‘stand by’ devices while you’re not home.

But now, the machines have gone beyond the basics like turning lights on or off, or setting an alarm system.

The gadgets for home automation are getting, well, nifty.

For example Samsung show cased smart TV’s, air conditioning and washing machines…all controlled by your Samsung Galaxy watch of course.

And several American companies offer smart light bulbs and power points programmable by a smartphone or tablet app.

Or there’s this start up, Goji, which show cased it’s soon to be available keyless door lock. Basically, your smart phone controls the door lock via its blue tooth. When you leave through the door, as the blue tooth signal drops out, the door locks.

And as you approach the door, the lock picks up the blue tooth signal and unlocks the door – letting you back in. Oh and there’s the app that takes a photo of who’s ringing your doorbell…and you can even let them in while you’re not home if you want.

Taking it a step up is SmartThings and its smart house design.

A sensor works out you’re awake and adjusts the house to your personal settings – like lighting, heating, and even warms up the coffee machine! Another sensor picks up that you’ve opened the cupboard and tells you basic information you need to know about the day. You can view the SmartThings House video here.

The Future is Already Here

Simply put, the future smart home is actually already here, and it’s doesn’t need expensive data cabling. For a Smart home set up all you need is your Wi-Fi.

That all sounds great. Yet, there is one big problem – security.

For the past couple of years home alarm systems have used Wi-Fi to keep the house safe. But the problem is, your home may be far more vulnerable to cyber risk then it is to any burglar.

But the exhibitors at CES mostly ignored this peril. In fact only one company, Goji discussed the encryption used in the door locks. But even then, it was a brief mention that the door lock had some form of encryption.

The thing is, smart homes are just as susceptible to internet threats as any computer device you have at home.

MIT Technology Review magazine last year highlighted the potential of malicious attacks on home automation systems.

As an example, a bored teenager with a decent set of hacking skills could be tempted to access your home automation network and turn the heater on…on a 40 degree day, which would drive up your electricity costs not to mention make for a rather uncomfortable homecoming.

Or they repeatedly flush your smart toilet.

Let’s stop there. You may wonder why you would want or need a smart toilet. After all how smart does a toilet have to be? It just needs to accept what goes into it and then get rid of it as quickly as possible!

However, a smart toilet could be useful. For example it could analyse your waste to check your level of health, and it could determine how much water is actually needed to get rid of the waste, rather than a default setting. That could save you water and money in the long term. Of course, constant flushing by some hacker would have the opposite effect.

Something more sinister could be to confuse your security system to enable a robbery to take place.

Because the potential for naughtiness is high, two researchers from Trustwave Holdings, a privately owned business that ‘fights’ cybercrime decided to test smart home products being offered to see how safe they were.

David Bryan and Daniel Crowley at Trustwave Holdings discovered the security systems for the Internet of Things (IOTs – a group of machines that talk to each other via the internet) have minimal security settings.

It varies from device to device, but a common thread with a lot of these devices is they don’t require any authentication at all,‘ says Crowley. This is a problem Kris Sayce and Sam Volkering have discussed in Revolutionary Tech Investor.

Take Vera Lite from Mi Casa Verde Inc. for instance. These smart home devices control lights, cameras, thermostats, alarms and door locks. It’s also easy to set up. You simply connect the device to your home network and a couple of steps later you have a ‘smart home’.

However, its default setting requires no username or password – a very basic security to say the least. But Bryan and Crowley found that even once these were in place, bypassing it didn’t break a sweat.

Founder of Mi Casa Verde, Aaron Bergen has hit back at claims this system lacks security, and actually insists it’s a design feature.

We do not consider it a vulnerability to allow a user to have full control over his own Vera,‘ was his response to the Trustwave criticisms.

Still, in all of the ten home automation products tested, eight had significant security flaws. Aside from Bergen’s defence of his Vera system, no other manufacture of smart home products responded to Trustwave Holdings when notified of the poor cyber protection.

But both Crowley and Bryan don’t think the danger is a lone hacker accessing one home automation system.  Presenting their findings at the Las Vegas Black Hat security conference a couple of weeks ago, Crowley told the audience they fear a crime much bigger than one person messing with one house:

It might be some effort to get to this kind of scenario, but if breaking into one server means you get to ransack 100, 1,000, 10,000 people’s homes, that’s definitely worth it, and that’s where the real danger lies.

Yoshi Kohno is also wary of companies rushing the smart products to consumers without taking further steps to increase their security. As an associate professor at the University of Washington, he studies privacy and computer security in consumer technologies. He feels there needs to be a higher focus on security of home automation products before he’d even consider using them in his own home.

He sees the threat to home lighting systems as minimal. But automated door locks for him are a big no-no for now.

But don’t despair. David Bryan from Trustwave believes the security of smart home products are where cyber security was 10 years ago.

Eventually, tighter encryption and enhanced coding features will appear in this cluster of useful machines.

And while smart homes clearly are the way of the future, there is one other industry that is set to boom with it. Cyber security firms.

You may think that sounds boring. Kris felt the same way when Sam Volkering, the tech analyst at Revolutionary Tech Investor pestered him about the topic a few months back. Kris even passed on the idea the first time.

Kris told Money Morning readers:

Before we got stuck into the research we couldn’t have thought of anything more boring than cyber security.

But after Sam laid out the big picture, we dug deeper into it and the impact it could have on the world economy. We’re certain that cyber security will be one of the most important industries in the years ahead.

Revolutionary Tech Investor subscribers are surely happy that Kris and Sam went ahead with the cyber security stock recommendation. One of the two recommended stocks is up an amazing 81% since October. The other stock is flat, but gains are sure to come as cyber threats continue to rise.

Just think about it. The more and more gadgets you connect to the ‘net, the more vital your internet security becomes.

The reality is that cyber protection is so much more than antivirus software on your PC or smartphone.

Sam tells a riveting tale about past cybercrimes and the companies developing ways to stay ahead of the black hatter’s (the bad guys of the internet world).

Before you go and install the latest home automation products, make sure you understand the importance of protecting yourself online. Checking out Sam’s thoughts on the subject is a great place to start.

Shae Smith
Editor, Money Weekend

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Why Google Glass Could Bring Down Government

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Governments and regulators have no idea about technology. The simple fact is the bureaucratic nature of government can’t keep pace with the world.

Nowhere is this more evident than the laughable story that’s come from the US this week.

This week a man attended a cinema in Ohio. Midway through watching Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit the man was asked to leave the cinema by a number of intimidating people. Once outside, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents held the man in custody for several hours.

The ICE agents interrogated the man under suspicion of illegally recording the movie.

First thoughts are innocent until proven guilty. But it seems these ICE agents had made up their mind as soon as they approached the man.

But no, this man was innocent. After hours of interrogation, he was cleared and released. He didn’t have a video and he didn’t record the movie. Oh and for his troubles the cinema gave him four free tickets…

So what was all the fuss about? The man was wearing Google Glass.

In an interview with Tech Crunch the man explained,

As I was taken out of the theater – the DHS agent had my Glass because he snatched it off my face – I started shaking and I was thinking I should call the police. Outside the theater when they asked me for the first time why was I recording the movie I realized it was a misunderstanding and I wanted to clear it as soon as possible. I unsuccessfully tried for a couple of hours to convince them to connect Glass to a computer or put it on their face and check, and when they finally did so they realized I wasn’t doing anything illegal and let me be and left.

It took the ICE agents a couple of hours to figure out he wasn’t doing anything illegal. A simple five minute check of his Google Glass would have ended it all there and then. In fact the man said to the agents to put on the Glass and check it.

But idiocy prevailed and the resultant storm in a teacup ensued.

So it appears wearing Google Glass is akin to being a terrorist. Of course wearing Glass into the cinema in the first place probably wasn’t the best idea. After all it can be a recording device. But almost every single person these days has a smartphone. So why aren’t ICE agents placed at every cinema across the world?

Surely if the threat of piracy is so strong a ‘suit’ in some dark shades talking into his wrist would tear my stub for cinema 8?

But this isn’t the only time Google Glass has run afoul of the law. In October last year police gave Cecilia Abadie a ticket. It was for ‘Driving with Monitor visible to driver (Google Glass)’. Thankfully sense prevailed. A judge dismissed the ticket just this week.

Government is Lagging

But the worrying issue is that government agencies, regulators and law enforcement simply can’t keep pace with technology.

It’s not always the fault of the officer or agent involved. There’s no directive, no law, no regulation for any of these technologies. That doesn’t mean there should be. I can’t imagine that the ‘Google Glass Act of 2014′ would be a good use of legislator time and effort.

The problem is government generally wants to regulate everything and anything it can.

But the example of the cinema incident is proof that government can’t control or regulate with any great authority anymore.

With mounting evidence it’s plausible the world will go one of two ways in the coming future.

Either technology driven networks will have greater influence in the world than any government, or government will stifle and slow technological progress and innovation. The by-product of this is it will also stifle and slow economic growth.

Perhaps government control is on borrowed time. This won’t be something that happens over two or three years. This is something that’s building momentum now and will happen over the next 10, 25 and 50 years.

Government will lose its grip on power and lose even further touch with the people. It’s socially connected, distributed, technology driven networks that will seize the power. In other words, people who are a part of these networks will use technology to make decisions that directly impact their way of life. They’ll do this outside of the realms of government regulation and control.

Faith and Trust

There are real examples of this happening in the world now.

The most topical of these is Bitcoin. It completely defies the rule of the state. It snubs central banks and relies on the network to ensure security, legitimacy and its very existence. And of course regulators and government around the world are scrambling to define and regulate the use of this economy busting technology.

Peer to Peer lending is another. Whether it’s Lending Club in the US or Zopa in the UK both of these have banks running scared. Wells Fargo has even banned its employees from using peer to peer lending.

Then you have the likes of Uber and AirBnb. These two seem to have a new lawsuit filed against them daily.

Take Uber for example. In Paris, lawmakers enacted a law stating that anyone who orders an Uber cab has to wait 15 minutes before entering the cab. So if your Uber cab arrives in 5 minutes you have to stand outside it for another 10 before getting in. These laws are to ‘protect’ the taxi industry in Paris. Protectionism laws…really? So much for competition and democracy.

Needless to say Uber has attracted its fair share of haters in Australia. The Australian Taxi Industry Association is calling for more regulation of Uber and other taxi ‘apps’. They want the same regulation as normal taxis. What they fail to recognise is the existing taxi network is a failure. As the current system doesn’t work these new technologies like Uber are growing in popularity and size.

Then there’s AirBnb. The New York City Attorney General in October last year filed a lawsuit against AirBnb for the records and data of all New Yorkers using AirBnb to list rooms and rentals. Of course you mustn’t forget that government takes a very handy little cut from hotels in the form of occupancy taxes. With AirBnb government collects nothing.

Technology is influencing our day to day lives more and more every year. The explosion of competitive, disruptive companies over the last couple of years has been a huge factor in this shift. These companies and technologies are specifically targeting markets and networks that for too long have had cushy, easy rides.

These technology driven networks that are the foundation of these companies give everybody a platform to make a difference.

You see Bitcoin is so popular because people have lost trust and faith in banks. Uber is so popular because people have lost trust and faith in the taxi industry. AirBnb is so popular because people have lost faith and trust in the hotel industry. See the common link…? People in general are losing trust in established industries and turning to these new, start-ups and new technologies. Why?

Because these technology driven networks do something that most regulators and governments fail to do…listen to the people and act on what they hear.

Regards,
Sam Volkering+
Technology Analyst

Ed Note: Soon Sam will launch a new free daily eletter – Tech Insider. Each day, Monday to Friday (plus a weekly digest on Saturday) Sam will reveal and explore the latest technological developments and explain how these technologies could impact your life. Importantly, Sam will explore these technologies from an investment angle too, by showing you how easy it is to invest in some of these remarkable technologies. Look out for more in the coming weeks, including details of how you can subscribe to Sam’s new free daily eletter…

Special Report: 2014 Predicted

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Laddering Adds Another Layer of Protection

By Dennis Miller – Laddering Adds Another Layer of Protection

Laddering reminds most people of a strategy often used when owning multiple CDs. Back when interest rates made them worthwhile, if you were trying to arrange cash flow, you could stagger the maturity dates of your CDs so you always had one maturing in the near term. Longer-term CDs had better rates, but they tied up your money; laddering mitigated that problem.

For example, if you had $500,000 to invest and a five-year CD was paying 6%, you could count on $30,000 in income each year. But what if you needed money before the maturity date? You could build a ladder, buying five $100,000 CDs, with one maturing each year. Sure, the CDs you initially bought in the short term would have slightly lower rates, but as each one matured, you could replace it with a five-year CD.

Once your ladder was complete, you could expect $30,000 in interest income, plus another $100,000 in liquidity each year. While constant cash flow was the main reason for doing this, laddering is a tool that has many more uses—most notably, inflation protection.

Inflation Protection

Suppose an investor bought a five-year, $100,000 CD paying 6% on January 1, 1977. The table below shows the inflation rates during the five-year period that followed.

Assuming this investor-taxpayer was in the 25% tax bracket, even if he’d reinvested his interest, he would have had a 25.9% net loss of buying power due to high inflation, as illustrated in the chart below.

By using a CD ladder, he could have mitigated some of his inflation risk. At the end of each year from 1977-1981, an investor who laddered could have rolled over a CD at the prevailing interest rate. By the end of 1981, he could have had five CDs paying rates much higher than 6%.

One note of caution: at one time, most CDs were non-callable, meaning that both the lender (us) and the bank were committed for whatever period the CD specified. Then banks started issuing callable CDs, meaning they could pay off their debt at any point during the period.

The same feature applies to bonds. If you lend money to someone and agree to callable terms, they have protection if interest rates go down. If interest rates rise, there’s a good chance you’re losing out because of inflation. Given a choice, I would take a slightly lower interest rate for a non-callable bond or CD.

The above chart tracks the interest rates for the 10-year Treasury. As you can see, overall interest rates have dropped. CDs and other fixed-income products have followed that same track. However, the trend has started to reverse, and we must protect ourselves.

Currently rates on CDs and top-quality bonds are still below inflation; they aren’t a good investment. Some 10- to 30-year high-risk bonds are paying 5-7%, but we do not recommend any of those products. Instead, we suggest laddering very short-term bonds if you have a need for fixed-income investments—in other words, creating a bond ladder. As interest rates continue to rise, you can then roll it out over three to five years so your yields keep pace with inflation and market interest rates.

Note that many of our subscribers have foreign currency CDs with EverBank, some of which have a 90-day period. Inflation protection is one of the key goals with those CDs. So if you’re investing in them, break your capital into thirds and ladder your CDs so you have one maturing every month.

Annuities: Another Use for Laddering

Many retirees also use annuities for guaranteed fixed income. We believe annuities have their place under certain circumstances. In general, however, they offer little protection in a high-inflation environment. While some have inflation riders, they come at a cost: lower initial monthly payments or some sort of cap on the increase.

Nevertheless, our frequent collaborator Stan the Annuity Man told me of a client who laddered his total $500,000 annuity purchase over five years as a means of increasing inflation protection. As an added bonus, he was one year older each time he bought the next $100,000 step in his ladder, which gave a boost to his monthly payments.

Laddering can help protect against high inflation, volatile interest rates, and cash-flow problems. It may mean you miss a little income in the short term, but in the long run it adds another layer of protection.

Annuities – with the additional protection afforded by laddering – make sense for many retired people and those approaching retirement age because they can provide a guaranteed income – which can make it a lot easier to sleep at night.

To help you determine whether an annuity is right for you, I put together an easy-to-follow report called The Annuity Guide.

This new report is jam-packed with invaluable information that will uncomplicate the world of annuities and is a must-read for anyone considering one.

Act now to get your copy of this important special report.

 

 

 

 

Special Focus on AUDUSD – Clears the 0.8755 level, Extends Bearishness

AUDUSD: Clears the 0.8755 level, Extends Bearishness.

AUDUSD: With the pair breaking the 0.8755 level, its Jan 20 2014 low to sell off further on Friday, more decline is expected in the days ahead. Support is seen at the 0.8650 level, its psycho level followed by the 0.8600 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8550 level and then the 0.8500 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.8755 level followed by the 0.8887 level, its Jan 22’2014 high. A break of here if seen will aim at the 0.8915 level, its Jan 16’2014 high. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Market Traders – New Gold Bull Market Cycle Has Started

By Chris Vermeulen – GoldandOilGuy.com

The two trend reversals everyone has been waiting a year for are about to take place, but they have not yet started.

While I do think 2014 is the year we see gold, silver, miners and many other commodities rally, it is important to follow the trend and wait for a reversal to form before getting overly excited and long commodities.

Each time we see the daily charts form some type of bullish pattern gold market traders become instantly bullish. And each time this happens they get another reality check about their trading technique of trying to pick a bottom.

I just published a book in December which teaches readers how to identify trends and stages in the market – “Technical Trading Mastery – 7 Steps to Win With Logic”. Buying into a bear market rally is not a high probability winning position. Odds favor that sellers will pull the price down and likely to new lows.

This January is one of these times and gold market traders are getting excited and long positions. While the bottom may in for precious metals, buying a bounce in a bear market is tricky and you better have some trading discipline to exit if price starts to sell back down.

Eventually we will see the stock market rollover and breakdown below its support trendline and gold will rally. But keep in mind, some of the largest percentage based moves take place just before a reversal. What does this mean? It means that the stock market could easily go parabolic and rally for a few more weeks, then reverse down sharply. And precious metals would do the opposite, sell off, make new lows, then reverse back up and start a new bull market.

Stock Market VS. Gold – Gold Market Traders Be Aware!

Gold Market Traders - Newsletter

 

Below are a few more charts showing my big picture trend analysis for silver and gold miners.

Silver Market Traders - Newsletter

Gold Stock Market Traders - Trend Analysis

 

Gold Market Traders Conclusion:

In short, the precious metals sector is still in a bear market and has not yet reversed to the upside. As you know I don’t pick bottoms or tops which go against the longer term trend. In this case the trend is down for precious metals so I am not trying to pick a bottom.

While I am starting to get excited about the eventual bottom in gold, I am still sitting on the fence with my cash.

If you would like to get my analysis every day and my gold trades be sure to join me at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen