{"id":9553,"date":"2010-05-18T14:52:09","date_gmt":"2010-05-18T18:52:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=9553"},"modified":"2010-05-18T14:52:09","modified_gmt":"2010-05-18T18:52:09","slug":"why-the-u-s-dollar-is-a-heat-seeking-missile","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/05\/18\/why-the-u-s-dollar-is-a-heat-seeking-missile\/","title":{"rendered":"Why The U.S. Dollar Is a Heat-Seeking Missile"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/taipan-daily-051710.html\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Why The U.S. Dollar Is a Heat-Seeking Missile<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #888888;\">By Justice Litle, Editorial Director, Taipan Publishing Group <\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>As the U.S. dollar rises sharply in tandem with gold, the  odds of another global financial crisis go up. Editorial Director,  Justice Litle discusses why&#8230; <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a funny thing about crisis \u2013 you can never be sure what the next  catalyst will be. The really bad trouble always seems to spring from a  place no one was looking.<\/p>\n<p>This is a big reason why so many investors are caught off guard. They  check the obvious places, but forget to check the odd places. (Or else  they shrug and dismiss the possibility of crisis entirely.)<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s worse, our global financial system is even more prone to  crisis now because everything is so connected. When one financial system  sneezes, another catches cold\u2026 or pneumonia\u2026 or worse.<\/p>\n<p>As you well know by now, the eurozone is engulfed in systemic crisis.  But did you know that a crashing euro has the potential to unleash a  fresh new round of fiscal avalanches all around the world \u2013 even in  countries that have no exposure to the euro at all?<\/p>\n<p>The reason why has to do with the U.S. dollar. The <em>surging <\/em>U.S.  dollar.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"UUP PowerShares  DB US Dollar Index Chart\" src=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/images\/web\/taipandaily\/uup-powershares-db-us-dolla.jpg\" alt=\"UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Chart\" width=\"443\" height=\"291\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Dark Riders<\/h3>\n<p>On Friday we talked about how <a title=\"Go to Article: Gold Goes Parabolic as Faith in the System Erodes \" href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/taipan-daily-051410.html\" target=\"_blank\">gold  has gone parabolic<\/a>. As the chart above shows, the U.S. dollar is  going parabolic right along with it.<\/p>\n<p>When gold and the dollar rocket higher at the same time, that\u2019s a  very bad sign. When the two get together like this, they are dark riders  of deep fear and concern.<\/p>\n<p>The dollar-gold parabolic pairing is rare. It happens as a function  of last-ditch safe haven buying. When things get really bad, many  investors want to seek shelter in gold, the last \u201cneutral currency\u201d\u2026 and  the rest want to pile into U.S. Treasuries.<\/p>\n<p>Right now we can say the <a title=\"Go to Article: In the End, It's All About People - and Profits\" href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/taipan-daily-051310.html\" target=\"_blank\">U.S.  dollar<\/a> is rising for at least three reasons:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Because the euro plunged into freefall (sending the $USD higher).<\/li>\n<li>Because U.S.-based investors are pulling their dollars from emerging  markets.<\/li>\n<li>Because overseas investors are buying U.S. Treasuries (along with  gold).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Squeezing the Shorts<\/h3>\n<p>Now here is the problem with this situation. <em>The higher the  dollar rises, the more the shorts get squeezed<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>And who are the \u201cshorts\u201d in this instance? Anyone who has borrowed  cheaply and heavily in U.S. dollars, with an eye for investing the  proceeds elsewhere.<\/p>\n<p>Take our good friend Hugo Chavez, for example. Chavez is the fiery  leftist president of Venezuela \u2013 a man who, just to give you an idea how  he thinks, recently hired some 200 people to manage his Twitter  account.<\/p>\n<p>Chavez is also \u2013 how to put this tactfully \u2013 a bit light in the  brains department. The man is just not that smart.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>The Most Secretly Profitable Industry on Earth<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>You won\u2019t hear about it from your broker or on cable TV\u2026 but there\u2019s  an overlooked industry that is ready to produce explosive returns.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Right now, a select group of individuals is on the inside track to  scoring as much as 808% on this government-sponsored investment. <strong><a title=\"Learn More About Taipan's New Growth Investor\" href=\"https:\/\/orders.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/TAI\/WTAIL315\/\" target=\"_blank\">You can get in  too\u2026 but only if you hurry.<\/a>.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>And so, it was no surprise last year when, somewhere in the general  vicinity of the dollar\u2019s bottoming out phase, Chavez decided that  Venezuela should issue dollar-denominated bonds.<\/p>\n<p>This meant that Venezuela sought to borrow in U.S. dollars, assuming  it would have the ability to pay those dollars back more cheaply \u2013 with  lesser value inflated dollars \u2013 at some point down the road. Chavez  cackled about the move at the time, thinking he was taking advantage of  the despicable <em>yanquis<\/em> and their forever shrinking imperialist  currency.<\/p>\n<p>With the dollar now rocketing higher, though, Venezuela\u2019s setup is  looking like a very bad deal. To borrow in a foreign currency is to live  or die by the fluctuations. For every tick upward in the buck,  Venezuela\u2019s potential payback costs go up.<\/p>\n<p>The Asian debt crisis of the late 1990s \u2013 also known as the \u201cAsian  contagion\u201d \u2013 was largely centered around dollar-denominated debt.  Thailand had borrowed heavily in dollars to spend money on things like  needless construction projects.<\/p>\n<p>When the value of the baht plummeted, Thailand found itself unable to  pay its U.S. dollar debts. Other Asian nations, lacking enough spare  dollars to cover their scheduled payments, found themselves in the same  spot\u2026 and the contagion was on.<\/p>\n<h3>A Heat-Seeking Missile<\/h3>\n<p>Now fast-forward to the present day. Asia is not the one at risk of a  dollar shortage this time. They learned their lesson on the last go  round, which is why so many Asian central banks have huge dollar  surpluses.<\/p>\n<p>The trouble is, others have taken the old Asia playbook and run with  it. <em>Many non-Asian countries, not just Venezuela, have borrowed  heavily in U.S. dollars on the assumption of paying the money back  cheaper<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s more, a number of exporters \u2013 particularly in Europe \u2013 have  done the same thing. These exporting companies assumed that getting  leverage against the greenback was a sure thing\u2026 a one-way bet. The  dollar was going down and down when they effectively made a long-term  wager against it (by borrowing in dollars). Never did they imagine such a  sharp reversal of the trend.<\/p>\n<p><strong>So the faster the dollar rises, and the more sharply it  rises, the more pain these \u201cshort dollar\u201d players feel.<\/strong> Nor is  this even to mention the world\u2019s hedge funds, which have collective  access to trillions of dollars worth of leverage\u2026 and have deployed much  of that leverage in anti-dollar fashion.<\/p>\n<p>Hopefully now you are getting a sense of why the rising dollar is a  heat-seeking missile. As it climbs ever higher like a stage five rocket,  it gets closer to exploding a whole new level of crisis.<\/p>\n<p>You can get additional information about the U.S. dollar when you  sign up and read my fellow Editor Adam Lass\u2019 <a title=\"Go to sign up for Taipan Daily\" href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/profit-taipan-daily-seo.html\" target=\"_blank\">investment commentary<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h3>A Dangerous Feedback Loop<\/h3>\n<p>What\u2019s more, this new crisis has the potential to run on a dangerous  feedback loop (just as most all leverage-fueled cock-ups do). As the  pressure gets too intense, various countries will decide to buy back  their short dollar exposure, either by retiring the dollar-denominated  debt or purchasing $USD in the open market to hedge their risk.<\/p>\n<p>This, in turn, creates more buying pressure for the dollar\u2026 which  pushes the greenback higher still\u2026 and so on.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019ve ever wondered why markets can run wildly to high and low  extremes that seem to make little fundamental sense, this is a big part  of it. At a certain point, it stops being about factors like \u201cyield\u201d and  \u201cintrinsic value\u201d and more about things like \u201csentiment\u201d and  \u201cplumbing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In a nutshell, sometimes the feedback loop takes over \u2013 and there  isn\u2019t much anyone can do about it.<\/p>\n<p>Equities can play a role too, through the leveraged nature of  investment funds. If a large hedge fund is heavily invested in long  equities with plenty of leverage, and the value of those equity  positions starts to decline (i.e. stocks go down), the fund might need  to sell stocks and cover some of its short dollar exposure at the same  time, in order to \u201cstop the bleeding\u201d and reduce risk.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>A simple twist of fate could hand you a 57-to-1 return\u2026<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>If you act now, you can be one of 997 folks who get a \u201cfree slot\u201d in  our breakthrough new service (valued at $5,000)\u2026 absolutely free. <strong><a title=\"Learn More About Justice Litle's Macro Trader\" href=\"https:\/\/orders.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/JMT\/WJMTL405\/\" target=\"_blank\">Here\u2019s how to  avoid missing out\u2026<\/a>.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>If just one fund takes the course of action described above, it  should be no problem. If enough large funds do it simultaneously,  however, you can have an <em>immediate<\/em> problem (of the type that  fuels a 1,000 point drop in the Dow, for example).<\/p>\n<p>On the equity side of the feedback loop, this means selling begets  more selling. On the dollar side it means short-cover buying begets more  short-cover buying. Like the ouroboros, the fat tail feeds on itself.<\/p>\n<h3>Be Careful Out There<\/h3>\n<p>This kind of thing is not reason enough to sidestep markets entirely.  There are few \u201cset and forget\u201d type investments in the world, and  central bankers everywhere are working hard to make cash in the mattress  a bad idea.<\/p>\n<p>But you want to be careful out there. If you can, cultivate the  ability to go short as well as long, either through options and ETFs or  individual equities. Learn when to be tactical in your deployment of  capital, not just strategic.<\/p>\n<p>And learn to take overly rosy forecasts with a grain of salt. Every  projection has hidden risk, and that risk should be brought up front and  dealt with. (The good news being, sometimes the risk is also  opportunity.)<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t forget to follow us on <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a title=\"Become a fan of Taipan Publishing Group on Facebook\" href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Baltimore-MD\/Taipan-Publishing-Group\/220337511074\" target=\"_blank\">Facebook<\/a><\/span> and <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a title=\"Follow Taipan_Trader on Twitter\" href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/taipan_trader\" target=\"_blank\">Twitter<\/a> <\/span>for the latest in  financial market news, investment commentary and exclusive special  promotions.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>About the Author:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Justice Litle is the Editorial Director of Taipan Publishing Group,    Editor of <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a title=\"Learn more  about Justice Litle's Macro Trader\" href=\"https:\/\/orders.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/JMT\/WJMTKC19\/\" target=\"_blank\"><em>Justice  Litle\u2019s Macro Trader<\/em><\/a><\/span> and  Managing  Editor to the free investing  and trading e-letter <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a title=\"Sign up  for Taipan Daily\" href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/profit-taipan-daily-seo.html\" target=\"_blank\"> <em>Taipan Daily<\/em><\/a><\/span>. Justice  began his  career  by pursuing a Ph.D. in literature and philosophy at  Oxford  University  in England, and continued his education at Pulacki   University in  Olomouc, Czech Republic, and Macquarie University in   Sydney,  Australia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Justice Litle &#8211; It\u2019s a funny thing about crisis \u2013 you can never be sure what the next catalyst will be. The really bad trouble always seems to spring from a place no one was looking&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9553","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9553"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9553\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9553"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9553"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9553"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}