{"id":8226,"date":"2010-04-02T16:02:03","date_gmt":"2010-04-02T20:02:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=8226"},"modified":"2010-04-02T16:02:03","modified_gmt":"2010-04-02T20:02:03","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-37","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/04\/02\/forex-daily-market-commentary-37\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro depreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. \t\tdollar today<\/strong> as the single currency tested bids around the US$ \t\t1.3485 level and was capped around the $1.3590 level. \u00a0Some traders took \t\tadvantage of very thin global liquidity to push the U.S. dollar higher \t\tfollowing a decent U.S. March non-farm payrolls report that saw headline \t\tnon-farm payrolls increase 162,000, up from an upwardly-revised -14,000 \t\tin February.\u00a0 The unemployment rate remained at 9.7% and this is a \t\tpositive sign because it means more people are returning to the labour \t\tforce seeking full-time employment.\u00a0 There were positive revisions to \t\tthe payrolls data for the first two months of the year and average hours \t\tworked increased to 34.0 from the revised prior reading of 33.9.\u00a0 \t\tPrivate jobs growth registered 123,000 with manufacturing payrolls up \t\t17,000.\u00a0 Average hourly earnings were up less-than-expected at -0.1% m\/m \t\tand +1.8% y\/y, signaling workers do not yet have pricing power with \t\tregard to wages.\u00a0 On the whole, today\u2019s labour report indicates the U.S. \t\teconomy is on the mend but jobs growth is likely to remain muted and the \t\t\u201cjobless recovery\u201d is likely to continue.\u00a0 The dollar also moved higher \t\ton a report that the Federal Reserve will be meeting on Monday to \t\tdiscuss a possible increase in the discount rate \u2013 another sign of \t\tmonetary tightening.\u00a0 The greenback is gaining ground on the premise \t\tthat U.S. interest rates will normalize at a faster pace than eurozone \t\tinterest rates.\u00a0 February pending home sales data and ISM data will be \t\treleased on Monday.\u00a0 In eurozone news<\/strong>, traders await the release \t\tof the EMU-16 April Sentix investor confidence number on Tuesday.\u00a0 Data \t\treleased in the eurozone this week saw German March PMI improve to 60.2 \t\twhile EMU-16 PMI improved to 56.6.\u00a0 Liquidity is expected to remain \t\tquite thin through Monday in the eurozone and the United Kingdom for the \t\tEaster and Passover holidays.\u00a0 Traders remain fixated on Greece\u2019s debt \t\twoes with a new wave of skepticism regarding the country\u2019s ability to \t\tsuccessfully reduce its fiscal deficits and refinance its maturing debt \t\tin the second quarter.\u00a0 European Central Bank member Kranjec reported \t\tthe European Union \u201cwon\u2019t do anything special\u201d to support Greece.\u00a0 Euro \t\tbids are cited around the US$ 1.3335 level.<\/p>\n

\u00a5\/ CNY<\/strong><\/p>\n

The yen depreciated \t\tvis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today<\/strong> as the greenback tested offers \t\taround the \u00a594.70 level and was supported around the \u00a593.65 level. \u00a0Data \t\treleased in Japan overnight saw the March monetary base decrease to \t\t+2.1% y\/y from +2.2% y\/y. Data to be released on Tuesday include the \t\tleading and coefficient indices.\u00a0 As expected, yesterday\u2019s Bank of \t\tJapan\u2019s Q1 Tankan survey of corporate sentiment improved q\/q with the \t\tlarge manufacturers\u2019 index up to -14 from -24 in Q4 and the \t\tnon-manufacturer\u2019s index higher at -14 from -22. \u00a0Also, the large \t\tmanufacturers\u2019 outlook improved to -8 from -21 in Q4 and Q1 all-industry \t\tcapital expenditures improved to -0.4% from -10.8%.\u00a0 Today\u2019s improvement \t\trepresented the Tankan\u2019s highest levels in eighteen months but they do \t\tnot necessarily mean Japan\u2019s economy will evidence a marked improvement, \t\tespecially as final private demand remains tepid and deflation remains a \t\tsignificant problem.\u00a0 There is market chatter that Bank of Japan will \t\tlift its assessment of the economy at the BoJ Policy Board meeting on \t\t6-7 April, possibly on account of greater export activity.\u00a0 BoJ\u2019s 30 \t\tApril Policy Board meeting will include its semi-annual economic \t\tprojections and could be the meeting when Policy Board members adjust \t\tpolicy further following last month\u2019s additional easing steps.\u00a0 There \t\twill be an Upper House election in July and politicians will likely \t\tpressure the central bank to make policy easier far in advance of that \t\telection.\u00a0 The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.37% to close at \t\t\u00a511,286.09. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the \u00a594.75 level.\u00a0 The euro moved higher <\/strong>vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as the single currency \t\ttested offers around the \u00a5127.90 level and was supported around the \t\t\u00a5127.15 level.\u00a0 The British pound moved higher <\/strong>vis-\u00e0-vis the yen \t\tas sterling tested offers around the \u00a5143.95 level while the Swiss \t\tfranc moved lower <\/strong>vis-\u00e0-vis the yen and tested bids around the \t\t\u00a588.65 level. In Chinese news<\/strong>, the U.S. dollar depreciated \t\tvis-\u00e0-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8257 in the \t\tover-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8264. \u00a0People\u2019s Bank of China \t\treported the U.S. dollar might experience a \u201ctechnical rebound\u201d but said \t\tits 2010 appreciation may not be \u201ctoo big\u201d on account of the U.S.\u2019s high \t\tfiscal deficits and low interest rates.\u00a0 PBoC also warned that new asset \t\tbubbles may be emerging globally.\u00a0 Data released in China yestreday saw \t\tMarch manufacturing PMI improve to 55.1 from 52.0 in February.\u00a0 People\u2019s \t\tBank of China reported yesterday it will continue its moderately loose \t\tmonetary policy.<\/p>\n

\u20a4<\/strong><\/p>\n

The British pound depreciated vis-\u00e0-vis \t\tthe U.S. dollar today<\/strong> as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.5180 \t\tlevel and was capped around the $1.5295 level. \u00a0Sterling liquidity will \t\tremain light through Monday on account of Monday\u2019s Bank holiday.\u00a0 Bank \t\tof England yesterday issued its first quarter credit conditions survey \t\ttoday in which it reported U.K. mortgage demand may rise in the second \t\tquarter.\u00a0 Data released in the U.K. yesterday saw March PMI \t\tmanufacturing print at 57.2, up from the revised prior reading of 56.5.\u00a0 \t\tCable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4455 level.\u00a0 The euro moved \t\tlower<\/strong> vis-\u00e0-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids \t\taround the \u00a30.8870 level and was capped around the \u00a30.8895 level.<\/p>\n

CHF<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-\u00e0-vis \t\tthe U.S. dollar today<\/strong> as the greenback tested offers around the CHF \t\t1.0635 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0535 level. \u00a0Swiss \t\tNational Bank is said to have intervened in the market yesterday by \t\tselling Swiss francs in what is estimated to have been a massive \t\toperation.\u00a0 Swiss monetary, financial, and government officials have \t\tbeen warning that they will not tolerate a further increase in the franc \t\tin recent weeks but many traders speculated the central bank would not \t\tintervene to weaken the franc.\u00a0 Data released in Switzerland yesterday \t\tsaw the March PMI manufacturing survey improve to 65.5 from the prior \t\treading of 57.4.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1180 \t\tlevel. The euro moved higher<\/strong> vis-\u00e0-vis the Swiss franc as the \t\tsingle currency tested offers around the CHF 1.4350 level while the \t\tBritish pound moved higher<\/strong> vis-\u00e0-vis the Swiss franc and tested \t\toffers around the CHF 1.6165 level.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As expected, yesterday\u2019s Bank of Japan\u2019s Q1 Tankan survey of corporate sentiment improved q\/q with the large manufacturers\u2019 index up to -14 from -24 in Q4 and the non-manufacturer\u2019s index higher at -14 from -22…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8226"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8226\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}