{"id":5749,"date":"2010-01-08T17:20:33","date_gmt":"2010-01-08T22:20:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=5749"},"modified":"2010-01-08T17:20:33","modified_gmt":"2010-01-08T22:20:33","slug":"fundamental-outlook-at-1500-gmt-edt-0500-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/01\/08\/fundamental-outlook-at-1500-gmt-edt-0500-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Fx Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro appreciated \t\tvis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today<\/strong> as the single \t\tcurrency tested offers around the US$ 1.4440 level and was supported \t\taround the $1.4265 level. \u00a0Euro bulls were emboldened by \t\tweaker-than-expected U.S. December non-farms payrolls data that saw \t\tDecember non-farm payrolls decline 85,000, compared with a revised 4,000 \t\tgain for November \u2013 the first gain in several months.\u00a0 In contrast, \t\tOctober\u2019s tally was downwardly revised and the December unemployment \t\trate remained unchanged at 10.0%.\u00a0 Manufacturing payrolls improved to \t\t-27,000 from a revised -35,000 and December average weekly hours were \t\tunchanged at 33.2.\u00a0 Moreover, December hourly earnings were up 0.2% m\/m \t\tand 2.2% y\/y.\u00a0 These data were definitely a setback for dollar bulls who \t\tthought the tide had turned in the exasperated U.S. labour market.\u00a0 \t\tEconomists are now wondering if the Obama administration will now steer \t\tfiscal stimulus towards projects that actually create jobs.\u00a0 \t\tAdditionally, today\u2019s number could delay some rate hikes from the \t\tFederal Reserve.\u00a0 Fed funds futures had been discounting higher rates by \t\tthe March Federal Open Market Committee meeting but that now seems \t\timplausible. The Fed may be forced to delay its eventual rate hikes to \t\tlater in the year.\u00a0 Other data released today saw November wholesale \t\tinventories up 1.5% from a revised 0.6% in October and November consumer \t\tcredit widened to a record \u2013US$ 17.5 billion from a revised prior \t\treading of \u2013US$ 4.2 billion.\u00a0 Richmond Fed President Lacker spoke and \t\tsaid the economy \u201cmay face an increasing risk of inflation edging \t\tupward.\u201d \u00a0In eurozone news<\/strong>, EMU-16 November unemployment reached \t\t10%, its highest level in eleven years.\u00a0 French Prime Minister Fillon \t\treported the Group of Twenty should focus on currency imbalances when \t\tthey next convene.\u00a0 Other data saw German industrial production rise \t\t0.7% m\/m and decline 8% y\/y.\u00a0 Additionally, EMU-16 gross domestic \t\tproduct growth was up 0.4% q\/q and off 4% y\/y in Q3 while the \u00a0German \t\tNovember trade surplus increased to \u20ac17.4 billion from \u20ac13.4 billion.\u00a0 \t\tEuro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3885 level.<\/p>\n

\u00a5\/ CNY<\/strong><\/p>\n

The \t\tyen appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today<\/strong> as the greenback tested bids around the \u00a592.25 level and was capped \t\taround the \u00a593.75 level. \u00a0New finance minister Kan clarified his remarks \t\tfrom the day before, indicating it is his responsibility to respond to \t\tmoves in the currency market but added the markets should determine \t\trates.\u00a0 On Thursday, Kan indicated the yen should be weaker whereas his \t\tpredecessor, Fujii, green-lighted a stronger yen when he first took \t\toffice last year.\u00a0 Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirano said the government \t\tshould not make any comments that could impact the markets. \u00a0Prime \t\tMinister Hatoyama said rapid exchange rate moves are \u201cnot good\u201d and \t\t\u201cunwelcome.\u201d Most traders believe the Japanese government will probably \t\ttry to orchestrate a weaker yen to help counter deflationary pressures \t\tand stimulate foreign trade.\u00a0 Data released overnight saw foreign \t\treserves decline to US$ 1.049 trillion at the end of December while the \t\tNovember leading indicator was up +1.8.\u00a0 Also, the December trade \t\tsurplus printed at \u00a5129.355 billion during the first twenty days of \t\tDecember.\u00a0 The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.09% to close at \t\t\u00a510,798.32.\u00a0 \u00a0U.S. dollar offers are cited around the \u00a594.75 level.\u00a0 The euro moved lower <\/strong>vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as the single currency tested \t\tbids around the \u00a5132.45 level and was capped around the \u00a5134.10 level.\u00a0 \t\tThe British pound moved lower <\/strong>vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as sterling \t\ttested bids around the \u00a5148.05 level while the Swiss franc moved \t\thigher <\/strong>vis-\u00e0-vis the yen and tested offers around the \u00a590.60 level. \t\tIn Chinese news<\/strong>, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the \t\tChinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8276 in the \t\tover-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8275. \u00a0Yesterday, People\u2019s Bank \t\tof China guided interest rate expectations higher by selling three-month \t\tbills at higher rates for the first time in nineteen weeks.\u00a0 This \t\tevidences the central bank\u2019s attempt to tighten liquidity.\u00a0 \t\t\u00a0PBoC-watchers believe the central bank may lift interest rates for the \t\tfirst time in three years by September.\u00a0 This week, People\u2019s Bank of \t\tChina yesterday reported it will support \u201crelatively fast\u201d economic \t\tgrowth and manage inflation expectations.\u00a0 Additionally, PBoC noted it \t\twill target \u201cmoderate\u201d loan growth in 2010.<\/p>\n

\u20a4<\/strong><\/p>\n

The British pound \t\tappreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today<\/strong> as \t\tcable tested offers around the US$ 1.6110 level and was supported around \t\tthe $1.5915 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw December producer \t\tprice inflation up 0.5% m\/m and 3.5% y\/y at the output level while input \t\twas up 0.1% m\/m and 6.9% y\/y. Yesterday, Bank of England kept its main \t\tBank rate unchanged at 0.5% and kept its bond purchase program unchanged \t\tat \u20a4200 billion, also as expected.\u00a0 Policymakers have made it clear they \t\twill modify the asset purchase program as required. There are two major \t\tfocuses for traders now. First, there is increasing speculation the \t\tcentral bank will not lift interest rates in 2010.\u00a0 Second, there is a \t\tworsening political environment for Prime Minister Brown, including \t\tdecreasing confidence among some in the Labour party.\u00a0 Cable bids are \t\tcited around the US$ 1.5730 level. The euro gained ground<\/strong> vis-\u00e0-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around \t\tthe \u20a40.9005 level and was supported around the \u20a40.8920 level.<\/p>\n

CHF<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Swiss franc \t\tappreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today<\/strong> as \t\tthe greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0215 level and was capped \t\taround the CHF 1.0385 level.\u00a0 Data released in Switzerland today saw the \t\tDecember unemployment rate increase to 4.4% from 4.2% in November.\u00a0 \t\tSwiss National Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for at \t\tleast the next couple of months.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around \t\tthe CHF 1.0615 level.\u00a0 The euro came off <\/strong>vis-\u00e0-vis the Swiss \t\tfranc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4740 level \t\twhile the British pound moved lower<\/strong> vis-\u00e0-vis the Swiss franc and \t\ttested bids around the CHF 1.6370 level.<\/p>\n

Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By GCI Financial – The euro appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4440 level and was supported…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5749"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5749\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}