{"id":5607,"date":"2009-12-31T18:33:46","date_gmt":"2009-12-31T23:33:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=5607"},"modified":"2009-12-31T18:33:46","modified_gmt":"2009-12-31T23:33:46","slug":"fundamental-outlook-at-1500-gmt-edt-0500-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/12\/31\/fundamental-outlook-at-1500-gmt-edt-0500-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Fx Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. \t\tdollar today<\/strong> as the single currency tested bids around the US$ \t\t1.4305 level and was capped around the $1.4440 level. \u00a0The common \t\tcurrency gained 2.52% in 2009.\u00a0 Data released in the U.S. today saw \t\tweekly initial jobless claims improve to +432,000 from a revised \t\t+454,000 while continuing claims improved to 4.981 million from a \t\trevised 5.038 million the week before.\u00a0 The common currency fell to \t\tthree-month lows on U.S. economic recovery signs and an improved \t\teconomic outlook from the Fed.\u00a0 Some dealers believe the Fed is inching \t\tcloser to removing more of its monetary stimulus measures.\u00a0 Recently, \t\tthe U.S. dollar has started to benefit from improving U.S. economic \t\tfundamentals, a reversal from earlier in the year when the greenback \t\tfailed to markedly improve from better fundamentals.\u00a0 In eurozone \t\tnews<\/strong>, data released yesterday saw EMU-16 bank lending decline 0.7% \t\tm\/m last month, the third consecutive month of declines.\u00a0 Also, the \t\tEMU-16 leading economic index rose 0.7% to 107.1 last month following \t\tOctober\u2019s 0.6% gain and September\u2019s 0.9% gain.\u00a0 Moreover, the EMU-16 M3 \t\tmoney supply fell by 0.2% y\/y, far below the forecast.\u00a0 The euro\u2019s share \t\tof global foreign reserves has risen to all-time highs according to the \t\tInternational Monetary Fund.\u00a0 The euro\u2019s share of global foreign \t\treserves is now at 27.7% whereas the U.S. dollar\u2019s weighting has falledn \t\tto 61.6%.\u00a0 ECB member Mersch this week reported the eurozone economic \t\trecovery looks \u201cmoderate and precarious.\u201d\u00a0 In contrast, ECB member \t\tKranjec reported there are signs the global economic crisis is over. ECB \t\tmember Bini Smaghi reported global central banks should be able to adopt \t\ta more \u201cminor role\u201d in managing the economy next year \u201cand the real \t\teconomy can take over again.\u201d Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3885 \t\tlevel.<\/p>\n

\u00a5\/ CNY<\/strong><\/p>\n

The yen depreciated \t\tvis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today<\/strong> as the greenback tested offers \t\taround the \u00a593.10 level and was supported around the \u00a591.90 level. \u00a0The \t\tpair gained 2.63% in 2009.\u00a0 In the absence of major news overnight, \t\ttraders continue to square their books at year-end and react positively \t\tto dollar-supportive U.S. economic data.\u00a0 Ongoing doubts concerning \t\tJapan Airlines and the company\u2019s possible bankruptcy are having a \t\tnegative impact on the yen.\u00a0 Standard & Poors yesterday warned Japan\u2019s \t\t\u201cAA\u201d credit rating could be lowered if Japan fails to stabilize its debt \t\tlevels.\u00a0 The Japanese government released a long-term strategy yesterday \t\tthat aims to achieve GDP growth of an average 2% over the next decade.\u00a0 \t\tData released in Japan yesterday saw December PMI improve to 53.8.\u00a0 \t\tMinutes from Bank of Japan\u2019s latest Policy Board meeting were released \t\tlast week in which the government asked the central bank to monitor \t\tdeflation.\u00a0 The minutes revealed \u201cmany\u201d Policy Board members agreed \u201cthe \t\tbank would maintain its stance of responding promptly to changes in the \t\tmarket situation.\u201d\u00a0 Policymakers said the central bank \u201cwould adopt the \t\tmost effective method for money-market operations that conformed to \t\tchanges in financial markets.\u201d\u00a0 After an emergency meeting on 1 \t\tDecember, the central bank introduced a \u00a510 trillion fixed-rate lending \t\tfacility that was designed to arrest the yen\u2019s advances and counter \t\tdeflation.\u00a0 The central bank also characterized the most recent bout of \t\tdeflation as \u201cmild.\u201d\u00a0 The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.86% to close at \t\t\u00a510,546.44.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the \u00a594.75 level.\u00a0 The euro moved higher <\/strong>vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as the single currency \t\ttested offers around the \u00a5133.60 level and was supported around the \t\t\u00a5132.45 level.\u00a0 The British pound moved higher <\/strong>vis-\u00e0-vis the yen \t\tas sterling tested offers around the \u00a5150.65 level while the Swiss \t\tfranc moved higher <\/strong>vis-\u00e0-vis the yen and tested offers around the \t\t\u00a590.05 level. In Chinese news<\/strong>, the U.S. dollar appreciated \t\tvis-\u00e0-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8270 in the \t\tover-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8255. \u00a0People\u2019s Bank of China \t\tGovernor Zhou reported \u201c2010 is a crucial year in strengthening the \t\tstabilization and recovery of the economy and defeating the \t\tinternational financial crisis.\u201d\u00a0 People\u2019s Bank of China reported \t\tChina\u2019s foreign reserves management will face a larger challenge in \t\t2010.\u00a0 PBoC reaffirmed it will \u201cgradually proceed\u201d with exchange rate \t\treform.<\/p>\n

\u20a4<\/strong><\/p>\n

The British pound appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis \t\tthe U.S. dollar today<\/strong> as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.6235 \t\tlevel and was supported around the $1.6050 level. \u00a0Cable gained 10.71% \t\tin 2009.\u00a0 A Bank of England survey released today reported banks were \t\tmore willing to lend to homeowners and companies in Q4 2009.\u00a0 The \t\tquarterly credit conditions survey also indicated the availability of \t\tmortgage loans is expected to rise in Q1 2010 also.\u00a0 Data released in \t\tthe U.K. today saw Nationwide December housing prices rise 0.4% m\/m and \t\t5.9% y\/y.\u00a0 Prime Minister Brown talked up the U.K.\u2019s economic growth \t\tprospects yesterday but acknowledged the economic recovery remains \t\t\u201cfragile.\u201d Brown must call a general election by early June.\u00a0 Large \t\tspending cuts will likely be required to improve the U.K.\u2019s fiscal \t\tposition.\u00a0 Most traders believe Bank of England\u2019s Monetary Policy \t\tCommittee remains in a wait-and-see mode and will expand its \t\tquantitative easing programs if required.\u00a0 Monetary policy is expected \t\tto remain unchanged until February, however, when Q4 GDP and the latest \t\tquarterly inflation report are due.\u00a0 Cable bids are cited around the US$ \t\t1.5755 level.\u00a0 The euro moved lower<\/strong> vis-\u00e0-vis the British pound \t\tas cable tested bids around the \u20a40.8855 level and was capped around the \t\t\u20a40.8955 level.<\/p>\n

CHF<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis \t\tthe U.S. dollar today<\/strong> as the greenback tested bids around the CHF \t\t1.0285 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0385 level.\u00a0 The pair lost \t\t2.98% in 2009.\u00a0 Data released in Switzerland yesterday saw the December \t\tKOF leading indicator improve to 1.68 from 1.62 in November. \u00a0KOF, \t\thowever, also reported the Swiss economy will \u201csignificantly lose \t\tmomentum\u201d in the coming months.\u00a0 \u00a0Data released in Switzerland this week \t\tsaw the UBS November consumption indicator rise to 1.28 from 0.88 in \t\tOctober.\u00a0 This represents the third consecutive monthly increase, \t\tevidencing an increase in consumer spending.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are \t\tcited around the CHF 1.0615 level.\u00a0 The euro moved lower<\/strong> vis-\u00e0-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the \t\tCHF 1.4855 level while the British pound appreciated<\/strong> vis-\u00e0-vis \t\tthe Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6700 figure.<\/p>\n

Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The euro moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4305 level and was capped around…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5607\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}