{"id":4608,"date":"2009-11-06T16:34:26","date_gmt":"2009-11-06T21:34:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=4608"},"modified":"2009-11-06T16:34:26","modified_gmt":"2009-11-06T21:34:26","slug":"gci-daily-market-commentary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/11\/06\/gci-daily-market-commentary\/","title":{"rendered":"GCI Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Fx Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4810 level and was capped around the $1.4915 level.\u00a0\u00a0 The major news in the markets today revolved around the U.S. October non-farm payrolls report where it was indicated the unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high of 10.2%, far above the 9.8% prior reading and above expectations.\u00a0 Similarly, the change in non-farm payrolls was off 190,000, worse-than-expected and worse than the positively-revised 219,000 print in September.\u00a0 Wages data came in stronger-than-expected at +0.3% m\/m and +2.4% y\/y and average weekly hours remained steady at 33.0.\u00a0 These data evidence a deteriorating labour force though some economists cite the deceleration in job losses as proof of a possible forthcoming inflection point.\u00a0 Other data released in the U.S. today saw September wholesale inventories off 0.9%. down from the prior reading of 1.3%, while September consumer credit was off US$ 14.8 billion, down from the prior reading of \u2013US$ 12.0 billion.\u00a0 After the non-farm payrolls data were released today, the fed funds futures market indicated the Fed would lift its target fed funds rate to 0.31% by the middle of 2010, down from 0.33% before the data were released.\u00a0 In eurozone news, German Chancellor Merkel pessmistically noted \u201cWe aren’t at the point yet where we can say that, internationally, we have taken the regulatory precautions so that such a crisis is not repeated.\u201d\u00a0 Data released in Germany today saw September manufacturing orders climb 0.9% m\/m, the seventh consecutive monthly improvement, while the rate was off 13.1% y\/y.\u00a0 The Federal Open Market Committee\u2019s interest rate decision was released this week in which officials noted the economic recovery continues and pared back some of their emergency stimulus programs.\u00a0 The Fed continues to make it abundantly clear that rates are likely to remain unchanged for some time.\u00a0 Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4445 level.<\/p>\n

\u00a5\/ CNY<\/strong><\/p>\n

The yen appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the \u00a589.60 level and was capped around the \u00a590.85 level.\u00a0 Data released in Japan overnight saw the September diffusion-based leading index fall back to 80.0 from 81.8 in August while the coincident index rallied to 94.4 from 90.0.\u00a0 On a composite basis, the leading index rallied to 86.4 and the coincident index improved to 92.5.\u00a0 These data suggest the Japanese economy is improving.\u00a0 Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Yamaguchi reported the central bank believes the economy \u201cwill keep picking up at a moderate pace\u201d and added \u201cthe chance that the economy will have a second dip is small.\u201d\u00a0 Minutes from the Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting from 13-14 October were released yesterday in which policymakers noted they\u2019d work to make sure investors realize the removal of some emergency stimuli program does not mean official interest rates will rise.\u00a0 The minutes noted the central bank plans to \u201cmaintain the accommodative financial environment.\u201d BoJ Governor Shirakawa yesterday reported it is \u201cunlikely that the decline in prices will induce downward pressure on economic activity.\u201d\u00a0 Vice finance minister Minezaki called on the government and central bank to discuss the real economic threat of deflation.\u00a0 The central bank and government remain at odds over the removal of monetary accommodation.\u00a0\u00a0 Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa this week continued to talk up Japan\u2019s economy, saying \u201cgiven that the emerging and commodity-exporting economies are likely to continue growing at high rates, risks have been becoming balanced, compared with a situation in early spring when risks were generally tilted downside.\u201d\u00a0 On interest rates, Shirakawa added \u201cThe Bank of Japan declared an end to the state of emergency, but it will stand pat until the economy returns to normal. The bank will probably continue its super-low rate policy through early 2011.\u201d\u00a0 BoJ\u2019s Policy Board last week predicted core consumer prices will decline 1.5% in the year ending March 2010, decline 0.8% in the fiscal year ending March 2011, and decline 0.4% in the fiscal year ending March 2012.\u00a0 The central bank last week reported it will stop its purchase of corporate debt and commercial paper at the end of 2009.\u00a0 BoJ Policy Board\u2019s next interest rate decision is scheduled for 19 November.\u00a0 The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.74% to close at \u00a59,789.35.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the \u00a594.75 level.\u00a0 The euro moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the \u00a5133.20 level and was capped around the \u00a5135.15 level.\u00a0 The British pound moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the \u00a5148.40 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the yen and tested bids around the \u00a588.15 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar weakened vis-\u00e0-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8194 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8196.\u00a0 People\u2019s Bank of China official Jiao yesterday reported new bank loans growth may accelerate in November and December.\u00a0 PBoC official Guo reported the central bank will keep liquidity \u201creasonably abundant.\u201d\u00a0 Traders continue to anticipate the yuan will appreciate and this has resulted in large sales of U.S. dollars by Chinese banks to the central bank, resulting in a scarcity of dollars.\u00a0 In fact, six-month dollar funding costs have tripled over the past two months.<\/p>\n

Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By GCI Financial – The euro moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4810 level…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4608"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4608\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}