{"id":4219,"date":"2009-10-08T08:29:40","date_gmt":"2009-10-08T13:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=4219"},"modified":"2009-10-08T08:29:40","modified_gmt":"2009-10-08T13:29:40","slug":"usdjpy-consolidates-above-tuesday-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/10\/08\/usdjpy-consolidates-above-tuesday-lows\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY Consolidates Above Tuesday Lows"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers<\/strong> – The USD\/JPY is retrenching above 10\/27 and 9\/28 lows as gold and the AUD\/USD begin to top out.\u00a0 However, the GBP\/USD and EUR\/USD are strengthening today, normally a negative catalyst for the USD\/JPY.\u00a0 The USD\/JPY appears to be on a path of its own for right now since investors are debating whether to send the currency pair below our 1st tier uptrend line towards a retest of January lows.\u00a0 Although present consolidation is encouraging and may continue over the immediate-term, the USD\/JPY is still stuck in its debilitating downtrend.\u00a0 Huge breakouts in gold and the AUD\/USD are sending a message supporting a broad-based Dollar depreciation over the longer-term.\u00a0 Though BoJ Minister Fujii reversed his hawkish tone in favor of supporting the Yen should it strengthen to critical levels, we are not sure exactly what levels Fujii is comfortable with.\u00a0 Therefore, the Yen\u2019s appreciation should continue so long as the BoJ\u2019s future monetary policy remains hazy.\u00a0 We can tell you that a failure of January lows would send up a red flag and pressure the BoJ to intervene.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Japan will release Core Machinery Orders data late Thursday EST.\u00a0 The CMO number will be closely watched since it\u2019s a leading indicator.\u00a0 A stronger than expected number would likely result in further appreciation of the Yen since it would support Fujii\u2019s hesitance in participating in QE.\u00a0 A solid number wouldn\u2019t be surprising since Japan\u2019s #1 trading partner, China, continues to experience strong economic growth.\u00a0 In addition to the CMO number U.S. Q3 earnings will play a large role in determining the near-term path of the Dollar.\u00a0 Encouraging Q3 results would lead investors away from the Dollar and place further downward pressure on the USD\/JPY.\u00a0 Lastly, the convincing breakouts in gold and the AUD\/USD spell a longer-term depreciation of the Dollar.\u00a0 Hence, there is little reason to change our negative outlook on the USD\/JPY trend-wise.<\/p>\n

Technically speaking, 10\/27 and 9\/28 lows should continue to serve as an immediate-term technical cushion.\u00a0 However, a failure of these lows and our 1st tier uptrend line would ultimately lead to a retest of January lows.\u00a0 As for the topside, the USD\/JPY faces multiple downtrend lines along with 10\/7 and 10\/5 highs.\u00a0 Additionally, the psychological 90 level is now working against the USD\/JPY.<\/p>\n

Present Price: 88.41<\/p>\n

Resistances: 88.60, 88.85, 89.20, 89.45, 89.97, 90.30<\/p>\n

Supports:\u00a0 88.25, 87.97, 87.63, 87.12, 86.80, 86.13<\/p>\n

Psychological: 90, 2009 and 2008 lows<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by Fast Brokers<\/strong><\/span><\/span>.<\/a><\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong> FastBrokers\u2019 market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell\/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n

Risk Disclosure:<\/strong> There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers – The USD\/JPY is retrenching above 10\/27 and 9\/28 lows as gold and the AUD\/USD begin to top out.\u00a0 However, the GBP\/USD and EUR\/USD are strengthening today, normally a negative catalyst for the USD\/JPY.\u00a0 The USD\/JPY appears to be on a path of its own for right now since investors are debating … <\/p>\n

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