{"id":4095,"date":"2009-09-30T14:59:49","date_gmt":"2009-09-30T19:59:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=4095"},"modified":"2009-09-30T14:59:49","modified_gmt":"2009-09-30T19:59:49","slug":"daily-market-commentary-fundamental-outlook-at-1400-gmt-edt-0400","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/09\/30\/daily-market-commentary-fundamental-outlook-at-1400-gmt-edt-0400\/","title":{"rendered":"Daily Market Commentary Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Fx Research <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro strengthened vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4675 level and was supported around the $1.4575 level.\u00a0 The common currency appears poised to close at its highest quarter-ending level since Q4 2008.\u00a0 Mixed global economic data fueled some of the euro\u2019s ascent.\u00a0 The flash EMU-16 September consumer price index wasoff 0.3% y\/y, lower than August\u2019s -0.2% y\/y decline.\u00a0 Nonetheless, many economists believe this pullback in CPI is temporary and are forecasting a recovery in November.\u00a0 Other data released overnight saw German September unemployment decline 12,000 with the unemployment rate at 8.2% while August plant and machinery orders were off 43% y\/y.\u00a0 Eurogroup Chairman Juncker reiterated the European Central Bank is unlikely to implement an exit strategy before 2010.\u00a0 ECB member Kranjec reported the ECB\u2019s liquidity tender shows \u201cthe system is liquid enough\u201d while ECB Vice President Papademos added monetary policy can be used to ensure price stability and lessen asset-price bubbles.\u00a0 In U.S. news, the September ADP private employment report came in worse-than-expected at -254,000, down from an upwardly revised -277,000 for August.\u00a0 Also, second quarter gross domestic product came in better than expected at -0.7%, up from the prior reading of -1.0%, while the Q2 GDP price index was unchanged.\u00a0 The Q2 core PCE reading was also unchanged at +2.0% q\/q and the September purchasing manager index came in less-than-expected at 46.1, down from the prior reading of 50.0.\u00a0 Friday\u2019s non-farm payrolls report will be closely watched with some private forecasts calling for job losses below -200,000.\u00a0 Philadelphia Fed President Plosser said the Fed will need to prevent a recurrence of \u201cgreat inflaton\u201d while Atlanta Fed President Lockhard noted he favours a sustained stimulus until final private demand expands.\u00a0 Fed Governor Kohn cited inflation as \u201csubdued\u201d and said the Fed \u201ccan\u2019t predict\u201d how rapidly it will have to raise rates but added low rates will likely be warranted for an extended period.\u00a0 Nonetheless, Kohn said rates will need to rise before the economy overheats.\u00a0 Former Fed Chairman Greenspan reported U.S. economic growth should average 3% – 4% in the next six months and said the U.S. economy should not return to recession next year.\u00a0 Group of Seven officials convening in Istanbul this weekend are not expected to issue a statement after their meeting.
\nEuro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4445 level.<\/p>\n

\u00a5\/ CNY<\/strong><\/p>\n

The yen appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the \u00a589.35 level and was capped around the \u00a590.40 level.\u00a0 Traders are talking about rumours that Bank of Japan will decide as early as October to let its corporate debt purchase programs expire.\u00a0 The central bank has been supporting the corporate bond and commercial paper market and the emergency purchase programs are schedule to expire at the end of December.\u00a0 BoJ officials are concerned the continuation of these programs could distort the proper functioning of the markets.\u00a0 Recently, on 18 September, BoJ found no lenders that were offering to sell commercial paper to the central bank. BoJ will release its quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment overnight and it is expected to evidence an improvement in business confidence.\u00a0 BoJ\u2019s Policy Board convenes on 14 October and 30 October and will publish its twice-yearly economic growth and inflation forecasts at the latter.\u00a0 Finance minister Fukii reported he will not discuss currencies at the Group of Seven meeting in Istanbul this weekend.\u00a0 Data released in Japan overnight saw August construction orders decline 25.2% y\/y while August overall housing starts were off 38.3% y\/y.\u00a0 Additionally, August industrial output was up 1.8% m\/m and manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5.\u00a0 Dealers continue to cite continued yen repatriation flows even on the last day of Japan\u2019s fiscal year-end.\u00a0 The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.33% to close at \u00a510,133.23.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the \u00a594.75 level.\u00a0 The euro moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the \u00a5130.60 level and was capped around the \u00a5132.00 figure.\u00a0 The British pound moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the \u00a5142.85 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the yen and tested offers around the \u00a585.90 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-\u00e0-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8244 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8230.\u00a0 People\u2019s Bank of China reported it will continue its \u201cmoderately easy\u201d monetary policy \u201cwhile highlighting the role of domestic consumption in pushing the economy.\u201d\u00a0 Chinese financial markets will be closed from 1 October through 8 October for the National Day\u2019s holiday.\u00a0 Some banks are predicting China will register consumer price inflation growth in November.\u00a0 Some PBoC-watchers believe the central bank is not doing enough to prevent an asset bubble.<\/p>\n

\u20a4<\/strong><\/p>\n

The British pound appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.6125 level and was supported around the $1.5945 level.\u00a0 Data released in the U.K. today saw GfK September consumer confidence improve to -16 from -25 in August.\u00a0 Also, service sector output fell 0.2% in the three months to July following a 0.6% decline in the three months to June.\u00a0 Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling discussed the government\u2019s new policies regarding bankers\u2019 pay.\u00a0 Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Miles said the central bank\u2019s asset purchase facility program is supporting spending and added the BoE\u2019s rate cuts have not been enough to offset credit tightening.\u00a0\u00a0 Leading City economists met with the Bank of England yesterday and reported the central bank is not planning an imminent move to a Riksbank-style policy mechanism where overnight deposits would be subject to a tax in an attempt to stimulate spending.\u00a0 .\u00a0 Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5720 level.\u00a0 The euro moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the \u20a40.9160 level and was supported around the \u20a40.9075 level.<\/p>\n

CHF<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Swiss franc came off vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0445 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0280 level.\u00a0 The pair moved higher as dealers reported the Swiss National Bank likely sold francs for euro and possibly the U.S. dollar via the Bank for International Settlements.\u00a0 SNB member Jordan last week said the central bank would act \u201cwith full force\u201d to avoid the franc\u2019s appreciation.\u00a0 Data released in Switzerland today saw the September KOF leading indicator climb to 0.85 while data released in Switzerland yesterday saw the August UBS consumption indicator decline to 0.66 from 0.75 in July.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0490 level.\u00a0 The euro moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5235 level while the British pound moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6730 level.<\/p>\n

Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By GCI Financial – Mixed global economic data fueled some of the euro\u2019s ascent. The flash EMU-16 September consumer price index…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4095\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}