{"id":4081,"date":"2009-09-30T09:41:40","date_gmt":"2009-09-30T14:41:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=4081"},"modified":"2009-09-30T09:41:40","modified_gmt":"2009-09-30T14:41:40","slug":"eurusd-buckles-following-weak-u-s-employment-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/09\/30\/eurusd-buckles-following-weak-u-s-employment-data\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Buckles Following Weak U.S. Employment Data"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers<\/strong> – Today\u2019s rally in the EUR\/USD has hit a roadblock after America\u2019s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number came in well below analyst expectations.\u00a0 Today\u2019s release couples with yesterday\u2019s disappointing CB Consumer Confidence release.\u00a0 Therefore, the U.S. continues to send negatively mixed signals, hampering the global economic outlook.\u00a0 In contrast to weak U.S. data, Germany\u2019s Unemployment Change number came in below analyst expectations, reading negative for the third straight month.\u00a0 Hence, Germany\u2019s employment market is firming up more quickly than America\u2019s.\u00a0 However, last week\u2019s wave of negative EU PMI data from Germany dampens our future outlook for German unemployment.\u00a0 Regardless of the future outlook, today\u2019s positive employment data from Germany is helping weather negative U.S. data, limiting present selling pressure.\u00a0 Unfortunately for bulls, we\u2019re not sure how lasting this strength will last.<\/p>\n

ECB President Trichet voiced his preference for a stronger Dollar earlier this week.\u00a0 Trichet\u2019s statement is juxtaposed to the ECB\u2019s comparatively hawkish monetary stance throughout the year.\u00a0 Hence, it seems both the EU and Britain may now favor a stronger Dollar.\u00a0 We believe both central banks are realizing that if they don\u2019t support the Dollar, a new monetary union will take shape with the East pulling power from the West.\u00a0 However, it remains to be seen whether Trichet\u2019s public contemplation will result in concrete action.\u00a0 Trichet\u2019s surprising support of the Dollar is undoubtedly creating a drag on the EUR\/USD right now which could accelerate should U.S. equities experience a selloff.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the EUR\/USD still faces several downtrend lines with limited EU economic data on tap this week.\u00a0 Therefore, there seems to be little ammo to turn the tide and continued near-term weakness could be in order.\u00a0 The EUR\/USD\u2019s dip below our 1st tier uptrend line was a risky move since it runs through 9\/8 levels.\u00a0 Although the currency pair climbed back above our 1st tier, a more definitive retracement could send the currency pair tumbling below the psychological 1.45 level.\u00a0 Hence, investors should keep a close eye on the EUR\/USD\u2019s interaction with our 1st tier uptrend line.\u00a0 Since EU econ data will be light, the EUR\/USD\u2019s near-term performance will likely rely on the S&P\u2019s ability to stay above our 1st tier uptrend line (see S&P commentary) and the 1050 level.\u00a0 Continual strength in the S&P would likely help keep the EUR\/USD\u2019s head above water and 1.45.\u00a0 However, our outlook on the EUR\/USD is becoming increasingly negative by the day.\u00a0 As for the topside, the EUR\/USD faces multiple downtrend lines, 9\/28 highs, and 9\/17 highs.\u00a0 Our 3rd tier downtrend line is the key barometer for the EUR\/USD\u2019s uptrend since it runs through September 23rd highs.<\/p>\n

Present Price: 1.4618<\/p>\n

Resistances: 1.4634, 1.4656, 1.4677, 1.4703, 1.4724<\/p>\n

Supports: 1.4608, 1.4580, 1.4563, 1.4541, 1.4519, 1.4501<\/p>\n

Psychological: 1.45<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by Fast Brokers<\/strong><\/span><\/span>.<\/a><\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong> FastBrokers\u2019 market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell\/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n

Risk Disclosure:<\/strong> There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers – Today\u2019s rally in the EUR\/USD has hit a roadblock after America\u2019s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number came in well below analyst expectations.\u00a0 Today\u2019s release couples with yesterday\u2019s disappointing CB Consumer Confidence release.\u00a0 Therefore, the U.S. continues to send negatively mixed signals, hampering the global economic outlook.\u00a0 In contrast to weak U.S. … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “EUR\/USD Buckles Following Weak U.S. Employment Data”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4081\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}