{"id":3977,"date":"2009-09-23T11:40:36","date_gmt":"2009-09-23T16:40:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=3977"},"modified":"2009-09-23T11:40:36","modified_gmt":"2009-09-23T16:40:36","slug":"usdjpy-avoids-a-retest-of-september-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/09\/23\/usdjpy-avoids-a-retest-of-september-lows\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY Avoids a Retest of September Lows"},"content":{"rendered":"

By FastBrokers <\/strong>– The USD\/JPY pulled back yesterday as Dollar weakened across the board and U.S. equities rallied once again.\u00a0 However, the USD\/JPY has bottomed above September lows and is strengthening as the EUR\/USD and gold move lower.\u00a0 Hence, USD\/JPY\u2019s movements are clearly tied the currency pair\u2019s correlations.\u00a0 We expect this pattern to continue today until Japan releases its Trade Balance data late Wednesday EST.\u00a0 We believe Japan\u2019s Trade Balance will come in stronger than expected since China\u2019s TEU data continues to grow with the country\u2019s economy performing well.\u00a0 Additionally, recent data from the U.S. has been stronger than expected; indicating demand for Japanese exports likely improved since the last time we received Trade Balance data.\u00a0 An outperformance of Japan\u2019s Trade Balance data would likely place further downward pressure on the USD\/JPY, corresponding with our expectations continues strength in U.S. equities over the near-term.<\/p>\n

However, as we explained in our S&P futures commentary, the Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) and Baltic Dry Index (BDI) are performing poorly.\u00a0 While China\u2019s demand for commodities doesn\u2019t necessary impact its hunger for Japanese exports, any fundamental slowdown in China could seriously damage Japan\u2019s present economic stabilization.\u00a0 Strong growth in China has helped Japan\u2019s economy a lot considering American consumption continues to decline.\u00a0 While we don\u2019t expect present setbacks in China to impact Japan\u2019s Trade Balance release today, investors should keep a close eye on the performance of the SCI and BDI over the near-term.<\/p>\n

In all, we maintain our negative outlook trend-wise on the USD\/JPY.\u00a0 The currency pair should continue to perform poorly as long as the global economy improves.\u00a0 Since we have little reason to be bearish on the S&P futures over the near-term, it seems the USD\/JPY\u2019s downward trajectory is intact.\u00a0 Furthermore, the DPJ has voiced a more conservative fiscal policy which would likely favor a stronger Yen.\u00a0 Lastly, medium-term momentum is clearly in favor of the downtrend considering all of the technical supports and uptrend lines the USD\/JPY has dropped through over the past month and a half.\u00a0 Technically speaking, the USD\/JPY faces several barriers to the topside, including all five of our present downtrend lines along with 9\/21 highs.\u00a0 Therefore, even though the USD\/JPY may strengthen further over the immediate-term, the currency pair has a long road ahead to the north.\u00a0 As for the downside, we spot technical cushions in the form of our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines along with 9\/21 lows, 9\/16 lows, and of course the highly psychological 90 level.\u00a0 Therefore, the USD\/JPY\u2019s topside appears to have more room than the currency pair\u2019s downside, favoring a positive performance for the time being.<\/p>\n

Present Price: 91.50<\/p>\n

Resistances:\u00a0 91.62, 91.80, 91.91, 92.18, 92.39<\/p>\n

Supports:\u00a0 91.42, 91.22, 91.09, 90.88, 90.69, 90.44<\/p>\n

Psychological: 90<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by Fast Brokers<\/strong><\/span><\/span>.<\/a><\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong> FastBrokers\u2019 market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell\/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n

Risk Disclosure:<\/strong> There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By FastBrokers – The USD\/JPY pulled back yesterday as Dollar weakened across the board and U.S. equities rallied once again.\u00a0 However, the USD\/JPY has bottomed above September lows and is strengthening as the EUR\/USD and gold move lower.\u00a0 Hence, USD\/JPY\u2019s movements are clearly tied the currency pair\u2019s correlations.\u00a0 We expect this pattern to continue today … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “USD\/JPY Avoids a Retest of September Lows”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3977\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}