{"id":3736,"date":"2009-09-09T10:16:14","date_gmt":"2009-09-09T15:16:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=3736"},"modified":"2009-09-09T10:16:14","modified_gmt":"2009-09-09T15:16:14","slug":"how-a-bear-can-be-bullish-and-still-be-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/09\/09\/how-a-bear-can-be-bullish-and-still-be-right\/","title":{"rendered":"How A Bear Can Be Bullish And Still Be Right"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Nico Isaac<\/strong><\/p>\n

In recent months, Elliott Wave International President Bob Prechter<\/a><\/strong> has become something of a household name. In the final \t\t\t\t\ttwo days of August 2009 alone, Bob was mentioned by several news outlets from MarketWatch<\/em> to the New York \t\t\t\t\tTimes. <\/em>The claim to his “fame” —<\/p>\n

EWI was one of the only technical analysis firms to anticipate a sharp \t\t\t\t\trally in U.S. stocks as they circled the drain of a 12-year low this spring, a feat made ever more exceptional \t\t\t\t\tconsidering the widespread image of Bob as being the ultimate “Big, Bad \t\t\t\t\tBear.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The lesson? Believe in the facts, not in the “widespread image.”<\/p>\n

Bob Prechter has always said that successful \t\t\t\t\tforecasting should look to the current wave count (and various other technical measures) for direction. \t\t\t\t\tHe has never permanently tied himself to the mast of definition — i.e. “bull” or “bear.”<\/p>\n

For this \t\t\t\t\treason, EWI’s team of analysts have been able to stay one step ahead of the biggest turning points in the \t\t\t\t\tDow Jones Industrial Average, from the very start of the index’s historic 2007 reversal.<\/p>\n

To wit: This two-year \t\t\t\t\tchart of the Dow incorporates several calls from our past publications as they coincided with the market’s \t\t\t\t\tmost memorable peaks and troughs:<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/a><\/p>\n

——————————————————————
\nFor more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a free 10-page July issue of Prechter’s Elliott \t\t\t\t\tWave Theorist<\/a><\/strong>.
\n——————————————————————<\/p>\n

The chart above presents the abstract \t\t\t\t\tdetails of our past analysis. Here is the expanded version of those insights as they appeared in real-time:<\/p>\n

July 17, 2007<\/strong> The<\/strong><\/em>Elliott Wave Theorist<\/strong>: <\/em><\/p>\n

“Aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position now. We may be early by a couple of \t\t\t\t\tweeks, but the market has traced out the minimum expected rise, and that’s enough to act on.” <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Soon after, \t\t\t\t\tas the DJIA neared its own historic Oct. 11, 2007 apex, the Oct. 9 and 10 <\/strong>Short Term \t\t\t\t\tUpdate <\/strong><\/em>amped up the urgency of its analysis and wrote:<\/p>\n

\u201cOdds have increased that a market high is in place. The structure, coupled with turns in the \t\t\t\t\tother markets, suggests a top is in place. The potential, at the least, is four a large selloff… Watch \t\t\t\t\tOut! The market faces a stout correction.” <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Before landing at its March 10, 2008 bottom, the March \t\t\t\t\t5 <\/strong>Short Term Update <\/strong><\/em>afforded \t\t\t\t\trespect to a bullish alternate count and wrote: “Prices should carry above the wave a high (13165) before it ends.” <\/em><\/p>\n

At its four-month high, the March 16 2008 <\/strong>Elliott Wave Theorist <\/strong><\/em>went on high, \t\t\t\t\tbearish alert and wrote: The DJIA is entering “Free Fall territory.”<\/p>\n

One week before the U.S. stock market landed \t\t\t\t\tat its 12-year low of March 9, our Feb. 27, 2009 <\/strong>Short \t\t\t\t\tTerm Update<\/strong><\/em> utilized a traditional turning pattern to outline a specific time window for the onset of a \t\t\t\t\tmajor upside reversal. In STU’s <\/em>own words:<\/p>\n

“By all indication, this pattern is back on track… the turn will come on or near <\/em>March 10, \t\t\t\t\t2009.<\/em><\/strong> Anywhere \t\t\t\t\tin this time period may mark a turn, which will obviously be a market low.” <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Once the bullish winds of change \t\t\t\t\thad turned, the March 16 <\/strong>Short Term Update <\/strong><\/em>wrote:<\/p>\n

“When the market speaks, it behooves us to listen. The implications of this are that the… major stock indexes \t\t\t\t\tare in the initial stages of a multi-month advance.” <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Finally, the April 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast <\/em>calculated \t\t\t\t\ta specific target range for the Dow’s rally: the 9,000-10,000 level.<\/p>\n

So, now that the upside objective \t\t\t\t\tis met, where are prices set to go next? For more analysis from Robert Prechter, download a free 10-page \t\t\t\t\tJuly issue of Prechter’s Elliott \t\t\t\t\tWave Theorist<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary \t\t\t\t\tscenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers \t\t\t\t\tConquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle<\/a> <\/strong>and \t\t\t\t\teditor of The Elliott Wave Theorist<\/a><\/strong> monthly \t\t\t\t\tmarket letter since 1979.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Nico Isaac – Bob Prechter has always said that successful forecasting should look to the current wave count (and various other technical measures)…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3736\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}