{"id":3547,"date":"2009-08-28T17:42:41","date_gmt":"2009-08-28T22:42:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=3547"},"modified":"2009-08-28T17:42:41","modified_gmt":"2009-08-28T22:42:41","slug":"fundamental-outlook-at-1400-gmt-edt-0400-76","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/08\/28\/fundamental-outlook-at-1400-gmt-edt-0400-76\/","title":{"rendered":"Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Fx Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4320 level and was capped around the $1.4390 level.\u00a0 Data released in the U.S. today saw July personal income growth at 0.0%, up from June\u2019s revised -1.1% decline.\u00a0 July personal spending printed at +0.2%, down from June\u2019s revised print of +0.6%.\u00a0 Also, the July personal consumption expenditures deflator was off 0.8% y\/y, worse than the 0.4% June reading.\u00a0 At the core level, the July core rate up 0.1% m\/m and 1.4% y\/y.\u00a0 Finally, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator came in at 65.7, above the prior mid-August reading of 63.2 but below the July reading of 66.0.\u00a0 The common currency failed to sustain its gains through the North American session as U.S. equity prices retreated in the session.\u00a0 St. Louis Fed President Bullard was on the wires earlier and dovishly said the Fed needs to see much more \u201cconvincing\u201d economic data before contemplating an increase in rates.\u00a0 In eurozone news, the European Commission\u2019s economic sentiment indicator improved to 80.6 from a reading of 76 in July.\u00a0 Many economists believe the eurozone economy will expand around 0.5% q\/q in the third quarter.\u00a0 Bundesbank reported German banks expect a modest increase in lending volumes in the second half of 2009 and in 2010, corroborating the central bank\u2019s assessment there is no credit crunch in the eurozone\u2019s largest economy.\u00a0 German Chancellor Merkel today reported the German economy might contract 5% or 6% in 2009.\u00a0 Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.<\/p>\n

\u00a5\/ CNY<\/strong><\/p>\n

The yen appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the \u00a593.40 level and was capped around the \u00a594.05 level. All eyes are focused on this weekend\u2019s general election in Japan where the long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party looks poised to lose its stronghold on power to the Democratic Party of Japan.\u00a0 Some Japan-watchers believe this will result in increased Japanese government bond issuance to finance the expected increase in public works spending.\u00a0 It is unclear how a DPJ victory would impact the yen.\u00a0 Japan is expected to battle deflation through early 2012 and will need all the help it can get from its slumping export sector through a weaker yen.\u00a0 Many data were released in Japan overnight.\u00a0 First, the July unemployment rate rose to 5.7% from 5.4 in June, the largest print since World War II and significantly above expectations.\u00a0 Second, the July nationwide consumer price index was off 0.3% m\/m and off 2.2% y\/y with the core rate off 0.2% m\/m and 2.2% y\/y.\u00a0 The Tokyo-area August consumer price index was up +0.3% m\/m and +0.1% y\/y with the core component flat m\/m and off 0.2% y\/y.\u00a0 Other data saw July all household spending off 2.0% y\/y while the trade surplus for the first ten days in August printed at \u00a548.08 billion, off 69.2% y\/y.\u00a0 The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.57% to close at \u00a510,534.14.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the \u00a5104.15 level.\u00a0 The euro moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the \u00a5135.00 figure and was supported around the \u00a5134.00 figure.\u00a0 The British pound moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the \u00a5153.60 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the yen and tested offers around the \u00a588.90 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-\u00e0-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8256 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8273.\u00a0 Chinese Premier Wen this week said the markets need to avoid being \u201cblindly optimistic\u201d about the global economic recovery and added China must maintain its \u201cmoderately loose\u201d monetary policy and \u201cactive\u201d fiscal policy.\u00a0 PBoC has reported it will ensure \u201creasonable and ample\u201d liquidity.<\/p>\n

Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By GCI Financial – All eyes are focused on this weekend\u2019s general election in Japan where the long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party looks…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3547","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3547\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}