{"id":3529,"date":"2009-08-27T13:24:24","date_gmt":"2009-08-27T18:24:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=3529"},"modified":"2009-08-27T13:24:24","modified_gmt":"2009-08-27T18:24:24","slug":"fundamental-outlook-at-1400-gmt-edt-0400-75","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/08\/27\/fundamental-outlook-at-1400-gmt-edt-0400-75\/","title":{"rendered":"Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Fx Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4220 level and was capped around the $1.4280 level.\u00a0 U.S. equity markets were pinched lower as traders continue to speculate the Chinese government may try to slow its industrial sector, probably to the detriment of global growth.\u00a0 Richmond Fed President Lacker hawkishly said the Fed may not need to purchase the entire US$ 1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities it has been authorized to purchase by the end of the year.\u00a0\u00a0 Data released in the U.S. today saw second quarter gross domestic product decline an annualized 1.0%, unchanged from the previous estimate, while the second quarter GDP price index fell to 0.0% from 0.2%.\u00a0 Additionally, core personal consumption expenditures were unchanged at 2.0%, matching forecasts.\u00a0 Other data released today saw weekly initial jobless claims fall to 570,000 from a revised 580,000 while continuing jobless claims printed at 6.133 million, down from 6.252 million.\u00a0 This week\u2019s U.S. economic data have added to the perception that the U.S. economy has likely bottomed out, though some bears are quick to note that the impact from the pending commercial real estate crisis has not been fully discounted by markets.\u00a0 The Federal Reserve is seeking a delay in the disclosure of the identity of companies that received funds from its emergency lending programs.\u00a0 In eurozone news, GfK reported German September sentiment improved to 3.7 from 3.4 in August.\u00a0 Also, Germany\u2019s inflation rose unexpectedly improved to 0% in August on a harmonized basis after declining an annualized 0.7% in July.\u00a0 Other data released today saw loan growth to private sector borrowers in the eurozone decelerate significantly, off 0.4% m\/m. Additionally, the ECB reported its annual M3 money supply indicator grew 0.3% last month.\u00a0 ECB policymakers this week have been quite cautious in their assessments of the economy, noting it is unlikely they\u2019ll move to unwind their monetary stimuli anytime soon.\u00a0 ECB rate-setters will next convene on 3 September and are unlikely to change monetary policy at that time.\u00a0 Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.<\/p>\n

\u00a5\/ CNY<\/strong><\/p>\n

The yen appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the \u00a593.35 level and was capped around the \u00a594.30 level.\u00a0 The yen strengthened across the board as traders were loath to assume too much risk during a period of decreased market liquidity.\u00a0 Vice finance minister Tango reported G20 central bankers and finance ministers will discuss the global economy and regulation of the financial markets when officials convene in London next week.\u00a0 Ongoing concerns that China will curb excess growth in the industrial sector continue to result in yen weakness.\u00a0 China remains a major engine of global growth and a weakening in industrial activity could precipitate slower global growth, thereby decreasing demand for higher-yielding assets.\u00a0 The repatriation of overseas yen assets back to Japan is also benefiting the yen.\u00a0 On the political front, Democratic Party of Japan leader Yukio Hatoyama published an editorial that suggested Japan should work with other Asian countries to create a single regional currency \u201cand aspire to move toward regional currency integration.\u201d\u00a0 It is likely that Hatoyama will become the next prime minister on 30 August if his Democratic Party of Japan defeats the long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party.\u00a0 There is growing speculation the Bank of Japan may extend its forecast for the end of deflation into early 2012 from early 2011, and this suggests the central bank will keep its ultra-easy monetary policy unchanged from quite some time.\u00a0 The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.56% to close at \u00a510,473.97.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the \u00a5104.15 level.\u00a0 The euro moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the \u00a5132.90 level and was capped around the \u00a5134.45 level.\u00a0 The British pound moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the \u00a5151.05 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the yen and tested bids around the \u00a587.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-\u00e0-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8273 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8266.\u00a0 Chinese Premier Wen this week said the markets need to avoid being \u201cblindly optimistic\u201d about the global economic recovery and added China must maintain its \u201cmoderately loose\u201d monetary policy and \u201cactive\u201d fiscal policy.\u00a0 PBoC has reported it will ensure \u201creasonable and ample\u201d liquidity.<\/p>\n

\u20a4<\/strong><\/p>\n

The British pound moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6155 level and was capped around the $ 1.6245 level.\u00a0 Cable reached its lowest level since 13 July.\u00a0 Bank of England Deputy Governor Bean reported it may take years to assess the efficacy of the central bank\u2019s \u20a4175 billion asset purchasing program on account of \u201ctransmission lags.\u201d\u00a0 Bean added the impact of the bond purchase program has been \u201cmoderately encouraging.\u201d\u00a0 Cable offers are cited around the US$ 1.6355 level.\u00a0 The euro moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the \u20a40.8820 level and was supported around the \u20a40.8770 level.<\/p>\n

CHF<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0660 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0705 level.\u00a0 UBS reported buying back assets from the Swiss National Bank is not an \u201cimmediate concern.\u201d\u00a0 Swiss National Bank member Jordan this week reported it \u201cisn\u2019t time yet\u201d to reverse its expansionary monetary policy, adding interest rates \u201cwill remain low.\u201d\u00a0 He also verbally intervened against further franc strength, saying it will be prevented \u201cresolutely.\u201d\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0790 level.\u00a0 The euro moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5240 level while the British pound moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.7255 level.<\/p>\n

Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By GCI Financial – U.S. equity markets were pinched lower as traders continue to speculate the Chinese government may try to slow…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3529"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3529\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}