{"id":3478,"date":"2009-08-25T09:23:01","date_gmt":"2009-08-25T14:23:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=3478"},"modified":"2009-08-25T09:23:01","modified_gmt":"2009-08-25T14:23:01","slug":"eurusd-jogs-between-our-trend-lines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/08\/25\/eurusd-jogs-between-our-trend-lines\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Jogs Between our Trend Lines"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers<\/strong> – The EUR\/USD is recovering from earlier losses, bouncing from our 2nd tier uptrend line as the S&P futures float well above their psychological 1000 mark.\u00a0 The Euro has exerted incredible relative strength lately, exhibited by the breakout in the EUR\/GBP.\u00a0 Euro bulls were inspired by Friday\u2019s EU PMI data coupled with yesterday\u2019s better than expected Industrial Production release.\u00a0 Industrial Production registered its strongest level of growth since August 2007 as global stimulus packages and auto purchase programs ignite EU factories.\u00a0 However, despite the EUR\/USD\u2019s resilience, the currency pair still faces our 2nd-4th tier downtrend lines.\u00a0 We believe out 4th tier downtrend line should be a key player since it runs through August highs.\u00a0 Hence, if the EUR\/USD can take our 4th tier downtrend line, the currency pair will likely continue its upward momentum by retesting its previous 2009 highs.<\/p>\n

Although we are receiving some important housing and consumer confidence data from the U.S. this morning, investors may wait until tomorrow\u2019s German Ifo Business Climate release before dislodging the EUR\/USD from its recent consolidative pattern.\u00a0 In addition to tomorrow\u2019s Germany Ifo number, the U.S. will release Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales.\u00a0 The Durable Goods Orders data could have a large impact on the EUR\/USD since it implies consumption and demand for the EU\u2019s durable goods.\u00a0 Since manufacturing plays such a large role in both the German and French economies, better than expected durable goods data could send the EUR\/USD past our 4th tier downtrend line, and vice-versa.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, economists are cautioning of asset bubbles caused by the global injections of liquidity, keeping the Dollar at bay and U.S. equity gains capped despite better than expected global economic data.\u00a0 However, although the liquidity measures surely pose a longer-term threat, we believe the immediate and near-term economic data releases should continue their theme of recovery and slight expansion.\u00a0 On the other hand, liquidity injections could come back to haunt the FX markets at the end of the 3rd quarter since investors will expect a growth in corporate earnings and\u00a0 shouldn\u2019t be too impressed by gains from cost-cutting.<\/p>\n

In all, investors should keep a close eye on the currency pair\u2019s interaction with our downtrend lines.\u00a0 Near-term momentum remains to the upside despite investor uncertainty since economic data points have been outperforming expectations.\u00a0 However, if this week\u2019s economic data comes in shy of analyst expectations the EUR\/USD may opt to test the patience of our 1st tier uptrend line.<\/p>\n

Present Price: 1.4325<\/p>\n

Resistances: 1.4327, 1.4347, 1.4360, 1.4375, 1.4405<\/p>\n

Supports: 1.4315, 1.4304, 1.4294, 1.4272, 1.4254<\/p>\n

Psychological: 1.40, 1.45<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by Fast Brokers<\/strong><\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong> FastBrokers\u2019 market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell\/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n

Risk Disclosure:<\/strong> There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers – The EUR\/USD is recovering from earlier losses, bouncing from our 2nd tier uptrend line as the S&P futures float well above their psychological 1000 mark.\u00a0 The Euro has exerted incredible relative strength lately, exhibited by the breakout in the EUR\/GBP.\u00a0 Euro bulls were inspired by Friday\u2019s EU PMI data coupled with … <\/p>\n

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