Just a brief post going into the NFP data release in 70 minutes.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD has been in a very small range since yesterday afternoon; the coil is being wound up and getting ready to spring. I was thinking this morning that it has been a while since any talking head has had anything but a long bias towards EUR\/USD. Nobody says that being short is a good idea. I seem to be one of the last commentators to side with the Long EUR\/USD crowd when we turned our outlook positive on July 20 and put on our long position July 30.<\/p>\n
So the concern is that no one is short. No one is out there worried about covering a short position if EUR\/USD gaps higher after the data release. No one will be desperate to buy back their EUR\/USD position regardless of price. There will be no Dealing Desk Managers shouting at their dealing team to “Lift every Offer You See!!”<\/p>\n
Conversely, if EUR\/USD starts to tumble after the data release, there are a lot of long EUR\/USD positions that got to the party late and are barely above (or maybe below) their entry point. These are the players that may be spooked easily by a drop in EUR\/USD. And remember the biggest short-term players in this market (large dealing desks) need transactions to make money. Their goal is to drive the market into action.<\/p>\n
So without commenting on the actual data release (estimates range from -150k to -475k jobs)we focus on the market action and will lighten up our position before the data release this morning. If we are right with our call for a 1.47xx handle sometime in the next 5 weeks, then there is still a lot of room on the upside to participate and re-enter our full long position.<\/p>\n
Stay Nimble!<\/p>\n
Stephen Leahy Just a brief post going into the NFP data release in 70 minutes. EUR\/USD has been in a very small range since yesterday afternoon; the coil is being wound up and getting ready to spring. I was thinking this morning that it has been a while since any talking head has had anything but a … <\/p>\n
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