{"id":3130,"date":"2009-07-29T11:25:55","date_gmt":"2009-07-29T16:25:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=3130"},"modified":"2009-07-29T11:25:55","modified_gmt":"2009-07-29T16:25:55","slug":"eurusd-follows-gold-south","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/07\/29\/eurusd-follows-gold-south\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Follows Gold South"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers<\/strong> – The EUR\/USD has crumbled beneath July 23rd lows and our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines.\u00a0 The EUR\/USD\u2019s pullback is picking up momentum after German Prelim CPI came in negative (-0.1%) along with mixed data with a negative tint from the U.S., Britain, and Japan.\u00a0 Meanwhile, gold is dropping like a rock, dragging on the EUR\/USD due to their negative correlation.\u00a0 We also recognize dips in crude and the S&P futures, though the declines aren\u2019t as exaggerated as the EUR\/USD\u2019s.\u00a0 The most interesting part of today\u2019s movement is that the GBP\/USD and USD\/JPY are strengthening.\u00a0 Therefore, it appears the Euro is under relative selling pressure.\u00a0 While it\u2019s too early to claim a divergence of currencies, the EUR\/USD\u2019s stark negative correlation with the GBP\/USD sticks out like a sore thumb.\u00a0 One need look no further than today\u2019s selloff in the EUR\/GBP.<\/p>\n

We can\u2019t find what\u2019s driving the Euro lower besides the bombing in Spain, although we wouldn\u2019t expect such a large, negative reaction.\u00a0 On a positive note, sell-side volume hasn\u2019t risen to abnormal levels today.\u00a0 Hence, the currency pair may be able to salvage its uptrend by recovering and closing back above our 1st tier uptrend line.\u00a0 However, if the EUR\/USD can\u2019t get its act together, we could witness a retest of the psychological 1.40 level in the near future.\u00a0 Momentum in the EUR\/USD is tipping to the bears\u2019 corner, and the currency pair needs strong gains from the S&P futures to stem the bleeding.\u00a0 Unfortunately, it seems U.S. equities are on a downward trajectory as well.\u00a0 Though the immediate-term outlook for the EUR\/USD is sour, the currency pair\u2019s medium-term uptrend still has a few tricks up its sleeves.<\/p>\n

There are a few solid uptrend lines we can create, with a last resort running through June and July lows.\u00a0 Hence, bulls shouldn\u2019t get too discouraged by the present setback in the EUR\/USD.\u00a0 Investors should keep in mind the 2nd quarter earnings season has fared better than analysts anticipated.\u00a0 Additionally, we continue to see some positive sparks in Euro Zone data.\u00a0 Speaking of which, Germany will follow up today\u2019s CPI release with unemployment change data tomorrow.\u00a0 A lower than expected unemployment change number could help the EUR\/USD settle down and consolidate.\u00a0 On the other hand, a worse than expected data point would likely exacerbate the immediate-term pullback.<\/p>\n

Present Price: 1.4087<\/p>\n

Resistances: 1.4094, 1.4117, 1.4137, 1.4154, 1.4166<\/p>\n

Supports: 1.4078, 1.4063, 1.4044, 1.4032, 1.4017<\/p>\n

Psychological: 1.40<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by Fast Brokers<\/strong><\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong> FastBrokers\u2019 market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell\/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n

Risk Disclosure:<\/strong> There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers – The EUR\/USD has crumbled beneath July 23rd lows and our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines.\u00a0 The EUR\/USD\u2019s pullback is picking up momentum after German Prelim CPI came in negative (-0.1%) along with mixed data with a negative tint from the U.S., Britain, and Japan.\u00a0 Meanwhile, gold is dropping like a … <\/p>\n

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