{"id":2891,"date":"2009-07-13T10:24:35","date_gmt":"2009-07-13T15:24:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=2891"},"modified":"2009-07-13T10:24:35","modified_gmt":"2009-07-13T15:24:35","slug":"usdjpy-tries-to-balance-above-july-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/07\/13\/usdjpy-tries-to-balance-above-july-lows\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY Tries to Balance above July Lows"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers<\/span> – The USD\/JPY is trying to stabilize today after its key selloff on July 8th.\u00a0 As we noted before, the USD\/JPY darted below our 1st tier uptrend line as it collided with our 1st tier downtrend line, normally a negative statement regarding trend.\u00a0 Though the USD\/JPY\u2019s volume shot up from recent levels, the volume registered on July 8th didn\u2019t reach a height you\u2019d expect to see on a key movement.\u00a0 This tells us one of two things, either there is another large confirming near-term selloff approaching, or investors aren\u2019t prepared to test the murky waters of January lows.\u00a0 We still believe July 8th\u2019s downturn was a statement, possibly a warning shot of what\u2019s to come.\u00a0 While we expect the USD\/JPY to retest the psychological 90 level at some point, 88-90 should act as a worthy cushion to the downside.\u00a0 Therefore, bulls shouldn\u2019t overly concerned at this point.\u00a0 After all, 2008\/2009 lows are very important psychologically and economically, so it would take a huge negative wave to wash away the USD\/JPY\u2019s defenses.\u00a0 As for the upside, getting back above our 1st tier trend lines would be an encouraging development and could alter our negative outlook.<\/p>\n

Last Tuesday Japan reported discouraging Core Machinery Orders and Current Account data.\u00a0 These data points signal the Japanese economy continues to feel pressure from declining demand for its manufactured goods both at home and abroad.\u00a0 Lower Japanese corporate earnings and higher unemployment are pinching domestic demand.\u00a0 The discouraging Current Account number makes investors worry that international consumption is not picking up as quickly as the improvement in global consumer sentiment data may suggest.\u00a0 An appreciating Yen should only make matters worse, so a declaration of the downtrend by the USD\/JPY could be very bad news for Japan.<\/p>\n

Investors will be keeping a close watch on U.S. corporate earnings and economic data releases this week.\u00a0 Any significant disappointments on the earnings or data front could result in a sizable pullback in the S&P futures.\u00a0 Considering the USD\/JPY is positively correlated with U.S. equities, this could result in the retest of 90 as we mentioned before.<\/p>\n

Present Price: 92.31.<\/p>\n

Resistances: 92.57, 93.32, 93.76, 94.45, 94.99<\/p>\n

Supports:\u00a0 91.96, 91.50, 91.03, 90.28, 89.86<\/p>\n

Psychological: 90, 95<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by Fast Brokers<\/strong><\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong> FastBrokers\u2019 market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell\/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n

Risk Disclosure:<\/strong> There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers – The USD\/JPY is trying to stabilize today after its key selloff on July 8th.\u00a0 As we noted before, the USD\/JPY darted below our 1st tier uptrend line as it collided with our 1st tier downtrend line, normally a negative statement regarding trend.\u00a0 Though the USD\/JPY\u2019s volume shot up from recent levels, … <\/p>\n

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