{"id":28467,"date":"2012-03-22T11:22:42","date_gmt":"2012-03-22T15:22:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/2012\/03\/22\/heres-why-the-bull-market-is-not-over\/"},"modified":"2012-03-22T11:22:42","modified_gmt":"2012-03-22T15:22:42","slug":"heres-why-the-bull-market-is-not-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2012\/03\/22\/heres-why-the-bull-market-is-not-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s Why the Bull Market is NOT Over\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div align=\"left\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\ntweetmeme_style = 'compact';\n<\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/tweetmeme.com\/i\/scripts\/button.js\"><\/script>\n<\/div>\n<div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-28439\" title=\"Here\u2019s Why the Bull Market is NOT Over\u2026\" src=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/bull-market-2012.jpg\" alt=\"Here\u2019s Why the Bull Market is NOT Over\u2026\" width=\"220\" height=\"220\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Unemployment is high. Gas prices are soaring past $4. And the stock market has doubled within the past three years. Does this bull market really have legs?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>It\u2019s hard to argue with someone who just won\u2019t see the facts for what they are.<\/p>\n<p>Over the weekend, I was talking to an acquaintance about the stock market. He said he didn\u2019t believe we were in a bull market.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe stock market has doubled in three years!\u201d I said incredulously. \u201cWhat more proof do you need?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Apparently a lot more. The person pointed to high unemployment, <a title=\"How to Benefit From Higher Gas Prices in 2012\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/December\/benefit-from-higher-gas-prices-in-2012.html\" target=\"_blank\">gas prices<\/a> soaring above $4, and every other negative in the economy and geopolitical scene that you can point to as a reason not to own stocks.<\/p>\n<p>And that\u2019s just fine with me. The more doubters we have, the more likely the market is going to run up. I\u2019m going to start getting worried when people are extremely bullish and talk at cocktail parties revolves around the <a title=\"Stock Market Investment Advice\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/investmentadvice.html\" target=\"_blank\">stock market<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s why I believe the market still has legs:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Headlines<\/strong> \u2013 I\u2019m still seeing headlines about market corrections, the market going up too much too fast, etc. On Sunday, the <em>Financial Times<\/em> had a story titled \u201cWall Street Braced for Hit to Soaring Markets\u201d chronicling analysts\u2019 bearishness. Let them be scared. When was the last time those analysts made anyone money, anyway? When those headlines become bullish, I\u2019ll get worried.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Wall Street \u201cExperts<\/strong>\u201d \u2013 The market has already topped the expectations of most Wall Street strategists. At the beginning of the year, the average forecast was for the S&amp;P to hit 1,363 by the end of the year. The highest target price was 1,515. Goldman Sachs\u2019 U.S. Equity Strategist said last week that he\u2019s sticking with his end of the year forecast of 1,250 for the S&amp;P 500.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The \u201cfear\u201d trade is over<\/strong> \u2013 We\u2019re seeing bonds and gold head lower. These are investment vehicles people buy when they want safety. They\u2019re rotating out of these assets and are putting them to work in stocks. The market is sending a very clear message that the panic of the past few years is finished.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I\u2019ve said this many times before \u2013 the market is a forward-looking mechanism. Over the past few years, as stocks were heading higher, even when the economic picture was still bleak, I told you that stocks were telling us things were going to improve.<\/p>\n<p>And while <a title=\"Can Monthly Jobs Data Make You a Better Investor?\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2012\/February\/monthly-jobs-data.html\" target=\"_blank\">unemployment<\/a> is still too high, things are much better. Joblessness has dropped from 9.9% at its recent high to 8.3%. Underemployment, which includes part-time workers who want full time jobs and people who have stopped looking, is at a three-year low at 14.9%.<\/p>\n<p>Sales at restaurants were up 8.7% in February, indicating people feel more comfortable with their financial picture. Personal income was up 5.1% in 2011 and personal savings rose 4.6% in January, suggesting that Americans have more money in their pockets now than they have had over the past three years when both of those figures were declining.<\/p>\n<p>Business is picking up all over. Try to get into a decent restaurant these days. They\u2019re packed. Revenue in Las Vegas was up 29% in January. When was the last time you had an empty seat next to you on an airplane? My conversations will realtors all indicate a significant pick up.<\/p>\n<p>Are things perfect? Absolutely not. There are still people hurting and businesses that are struggling. And although the problems of the past few years were very real and significant, this time wasn\u2019t different, and <a title=\"Why the Bears Were Wrong: It\u2019s Not the End of America\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2012\/March\/the-end-of-america.html\" target=\"_blank\">the economy and markets rebounded<\/a> like they always have.<\/p>\n<p>I suspect there\u2019s plenty of upside left in this market. I expect us to hit the recent highs in the S&amp;P 500 of 1,576. Strong stocks like <strong>Apple <\/strong>(Nasdaq: <a href=\"http:\/\/quote.morningstar.com\/Stock\/s.aspx?t=AAPL\" target=\"_blank\">AAPL<\/a>), <strong>Las Vegas Sands<\/strong> (NYSE: <a href=\"http:\/\/quote.morningstar.com\/Stock\/s.aspx?t=LVS\" target=\"_blank\">LVS<\/a>) and <strong>Qualcomm<\/strong> (Nasdaq: <a href=\"http:\/\/quote.morningstar.com\/Stock\/s.aspx?t=QCOM\" target=\"_blank\">QCOM<\/a>) should continue to lead us there.<\/p>\n<p>Good Investing,<\/p>\n<p>Marc Lichtenfeld<\/p>\n<div>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=Aa8jOBxP0M0:zHVkFn2Lc-8:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=Aa8jOBxP0M0:zHVkFn2Lc-8:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=Aa8jOBxP0M0:zHVkFn2Lc-8:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=Aa8jOBxP0M0:zHVkFn2Lc-8:qj6IDK7rITs\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?d=qj6IDK7rITs\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=Aa8jOBxP0M0:zHVkFn2Lc-8:gIN9vFwOqvQ\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=Aa8jOBxP0M0:zHVkFn2Lc-8:gIN9vFwOqvQ\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=Aa8jOBxP0M0:zHVkFn2Lc-8:F7zBnMyn0Lo\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=Aa8jOBxP0M0:zHVkFn2Lc-8:F7zBnMyn0Lo\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/InvestmentU\/~4\/Aa8jOBxP0M0\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Article by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Investment U<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Unemployment is high. Gas prices are soaring past $4. And the stock market has doubled within the past three years. Does this bull market really have legs? It\u2019s hard to argue with someone who just won\u2019t see the facts for what they are. Over the weekend, I was talking to an acquaintance about the stock &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2012\/03\/22\/heres-why-the-bull-market-is-not-over\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Here\u2019s Why the Bull Market is NOT Over\u2026&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28467"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28467\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}