{"id":28384,"date":"2012-03-19T11:36:44","date_gmt":"2012-03-19T15:36:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/2012\/03\/19\/could-alzheimer-drugs-be-big-pharmas-aapl\/"},"modified":"2012-03-19T11:36:44","modified_gmt":"2012-03-19T15:36:44","slug":"could-alzheimer-drugs-be-big-pharmas-aapl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2012\/03\/19\/could-alzheimer-drugs-be-big-pharmas-aapl\/","title":{"rendered":"Could Alzheimer Drugs Be Big Pharma\u2019s AAPL?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div align=\"left\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\ntweetmeme_style = 'compact';\n<\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/tweetmeme.com\/i\/scripts\/button.js\"><\/script>\n<\/div>\n<table width=\"458\" border=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"452\"><span><object id=\"limelight_player_168259\" width=\"449\" height=\"411\" class codebase=\"http:\/\/download.macromedia.com\/pub\/shockwave\/cabs\/flash\/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0\"><param name=\"wmode\" value=\"window\" \/><param name=\"allowScriptAccess\" value=\"always\" \/><param name=\"allowFullScreen\" value=\"true\" \/><param name=\"flashVars\" value=\"playerForm=7edf77c193da43258f6963d53b4cb0f3&amp;mediaId=97888ce226ab4374b3ad7ddd4fdc2150\" \/><param name=\"src\" value=\"http:\/\/assets.delvenetworks.com\/player\/loader.swf\" \/><param name=\"allowscriptaccess\" value=\"always\" \/><param name=\"allowfullscreen\" value=\"true\" \/><param name=\"flashvars\" value=\"playerForm=7edf77c193da43258f6963d53b4cb0f3&amp;mediaId=97888ce226ab4374b3ad7ddd4fdc2150\" \/><embed id=\"limelight_player_168259\" width=\"449\" height=\"411\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" src=\"http:\/\/assets.delvenetworks.com\/player\/loader.swf\" wmode=\"window\" allowScriptAccess=\"always\" allowFullScreen=\"true\" flashVars=\"playerForm=7edf77c193da43258f6963d53b4cb0f3&amp;mediaId=97888ce226ab4374b3ad7ddd4fdc2150\" allowscriptaccess=\"always\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" flashvars=\"playerForm=7edf77c193da43258f6963d53b4cb0f3&amp;mediaId=97888ce226ab4374b3ad7ddd4fdc2150\" \/><\/object><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/investment-research\/investment-video-archive.html\" target=\"_blank\">View the<em> Investment U<\/em> Video Archive<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>This week our focus is on: Alzheimer drugs that could be worth billions a year, the American dream in a bottle, new commodity plays and the SITFA<\/p>\n<p>The entire investment world is on the edge of their seats waiting for the outcome of two Phase III Alzheimer drug trials underway now. If all these drugs do is slow the progress of Alzheimer\u2019s (they don\u2019t have to promise a cure, just slow the disease), this could be almost as big as Apple.<\/p>\n<p><em>Barron\u2019s<\/em> reported both Lilly and Pfizer potentially have huge revenue-producing drugs on the way as early as this year. How big? $10 to $20 billion a year from one drug!<\/p>\n<p>The minority players on the Lilly drug are Elan and JNJ. The Lilly\/Elan\/JNJ drug play according to analysts has a 10% downside if the trials don\u2019t pan out and a 50% upside if they do. Those are pretty good odds.<\/p>\n<p>The best news is if the Lilly drug is a winner, JNJ, according to <em>Barron\u2019s<\/em>, is expected to buy out Elan to acquire their 10% stake in it. That would give JNJ a 20% stake and give investors in Elan a very nice payday.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts expect shares of Lilly to start running up later this year in anticipation of the trial results, and <em>Barron\u2019s<\/em> reported that Lilly and Elan stock should offer the best returns if their drug is approved.<\/p>\n<p>But the drug with the best chance of approval is Pfizer\u2019s. Catherine Arnold of Credit Suisse thinks Pfizer\u2019s stock price is currently reflecting little hope of approval, but Pfizer\u2019s drug had the best results in Phase II trials. That means we should really pay attention to this one!<\/p>\n<p>Investors are cautious about both companies\u2019 stocks, but Pfizer, according to Credit Suisse, has a pitiful PE of about 9, and has other good drugs in their pipeline and could be the better bet of the two big players.<\/p>\n<p>Pfizer\u2019s drug actually showed slowing of Alzheimer\u2019s symptoms in Phase II trials if the patients didn\u2019t have a genetic marker for the disease. It isn\u2019t the cure all we would like, but it\u2019s a lot better than what\u2019s available now.<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Organovo\u2019s 3D Bioprinting: A Win for Pharmaceuticals?\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2012\/March\/organovo-3d-bioprinting-pharmaceuticals.html\">Drug companies<\/a> are estimating an annual cost of between $5,000 and $20,000 per year for treatment and there are millions of customers already waiting for some type of relief, and the numbers will only explode as the boomers age.<\/p>\n<p>This is one heck of a story; keep your ear to the ground on this one.<\/p>\n<h2>Beer, the New American Dream<\/h2>\n<p>An advertising campaign launched in 2010 presents <a title=\"Budweiser: Because You Deserve What Every Individual Should Enjoy Regularly\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2010\/June\/anheuser-busch-and-budweiser.html\">Budweiser beer<\/a> as the American dream in a bottle. I\u2019m not kidding.<\/p>\n<p>The really amazing news is how well this advertising approach has worked in the developing world and, believe it or not, Canada, too.<\/p>\n<p>Overall sales for AB InBev grew 4.6% in 2011, but the U.S. sales were the anchor of this sprawling beer machine, inching up only 0.3%. Maybe we here at home have had all of the liquid dreams we can stomach for a while.<\/p>\n<p>But Bud\u2019s numbers in the rest of the world have been huge! Bud has a 70% market share in Brazil in less than one year of sales, it had double-digit sales growth in China last year, and is the number one beer in Canada with a 13% market share. And believe me, having spent quite a bit of time in the great white north, Canadians know their beer.<\/p>\n<p>Am InBev is rolling right along, too. Their revenue grew to 39.05 billion in 2011 and their profit grew to 5.86 billion from 4.03 billion. That\u2019s a nice increase. InBev also has about a 50% market share in the U.S., which has been known to crack open a few brews, as well.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s hard to remember a time when beer wasn\u2019t doing well. Now that it\u2019s the American dream in a bottle, who knows how big this could be. Am InBev, take a look at this one.<\/p>\n<h2>New Commodity Plays<\/h2>\n<p>A recent <em>Journal<\/em> article said that a lot of untested <a title=\"A Beginner\u2019s Guide to Commodity Investing\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/November\/beginners-guide-to-commodity-investing.html\">commodity plays<\/a> have hit the market recently, mostly in the forms of ETFs, all aiming to beat the indices and most are totally unproven.<\/p>\n<p>Some of these are even supposed to pay off if the commodity rises and falls in price, huh?<\/p>\n<p>There are even commodity plays that invest in materials not even on the exchanges. The amazing part, investors are pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into these new-fangled products even as commodity prices have been falling.<\/p>\n<p>Kathryn Young, a Morningstar analyst, said that investors are running to these new products despite the fact that we have very little information about them and no track record to know if they even work.<\/p>\n<p>Some funds are doing nothing more than tracking commodities that have fallen or gained the most in a month and betting that the top 10 gainers or losers will continue to fall or run up even further.<\/p>\n<p>Matt Hougan, President of ETF Analytics at IndexUniverse, was quoted in the <em>Journal<\/em> article as saying that <a title=\"Investing in Index Funds\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2012\/March\/index-funds.html\">indexing<\/a> commodities may not even be the best way to play them, never mind the more exotic plays out there.<\/p>\n<p>That to me says there is a lot of room for error in these unproven products.<\/p>\n<p>Commodities are definitely on a long-term uptrend as the <a title=\"Asia\u2019s Emerging Middle Class Consumption is Powering Up\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/February\/asia-emerging-middle-class-consumer.html\">world\u2019s middle class<\/a> continues to grow, but playing them may require sticking with the tried and true, at least until there are better numbers to support the more extreme options.<\/p>\n<h2>The SITFA<\/h2>\n<p>This week it goes to those sheep shears out there who want to make sheep shearing a competitive Olympic sport. The new Zealand Farm Lobby believes it\u2019s time to elevate sheep shearing to the world stage.<\/p>\n<p>A recent <em>Journal<\/em> article stated that some people find sheep shearing thrilling. \u201cThrilling,\u201d their word not mine!<\/p>\n<p>A top clipper can finish a whole sheep in 45 seconds, wow! I\u2019m sure the NFL is trembling at the thought of this kind of competition for their viewer\u2019s dollars.<\/p>\n<p>And these world-class shearers travel thousands of miles to compete in competitions; New Zealand is one of the top destinations.<\/p>\n<p>This is so big in New Zealand that their national betting agency had to create more and different types of bets to serve all who wanted to get in on the action. \u201cAction,\u201d again, their word not mine.<\/p>\n<p>I am not making this up!<\/p>\n<p>In fact, the U.S. shearing competition was recently held just a few blocks form my house here in Baltimore, and I didn\u2019t know it was there. I have to get out more.<\/p>\n<p>Alex Mosler of Lester, Iowa said, if bowling is a sport, shearing can be, too. He thinks if more people saw it in the Olympics and on TV, more people would see it as a sport.<\/p>\n<p>I can see it now, ESSN, Entirely Sheep Shearing Network.<\/p>\n<p>See you next week.<\/p>\n<div>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=l4xySM8Tn3g:zHVkFn2Lc-8:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=l4xySM8Tn3g:zHVkFn2Lc-8:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=l4xySM8Tn3g:zHVkFn2Lc-8:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=l4xySM8Tn3g:zHVkFn2Lc-8:qj6IDK7rITs\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?d=qj6IDK7rITs\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=l4xySM8Tn3g:zHVkFn2Lc-8:gIN9vFwOqvQ\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=l4xySM8Tn3g:zHVkFn2Lc-8:gIN9vFwOqvQ\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=l4xySM8Tn3g:zHVkFn2Lc-8:F7zBnMyn0Lo\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=l4xySM8Tn3g:zHVkFn2Lc-8:F7zBnMyn0Lo\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/InvestmentU\/~4\/l4xySM8Tn3g\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Article by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Investment U<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>View the Investment U Video Archive This week our focus is on: Alzheimer drugs that could be worth billions a year, the American dream in a bottle, new commodity plays and the SITFA The entire investment world is on the edge of their seats waiting for the outcome of two Phase III Alzheimer drug trials &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2012\/03\/19\/could-alzheimer-drugs-be-big-pharmas-aapl\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Could Alzheimer Drugs Be Big Pharma\u2019s AAPL?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28384","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28384"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28384\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28384"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28384"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28384"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}