{"id":2526,"date":"2009-06-17T17:58:08","date_gmt":"2009-06-17T22:58:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=2526"},"modified":"2009-06-17T17:58:08","modified_gmt":"2009-06-17T22:58:08","slug":"fundamental-outlook-at-1400-gmt-edt-0400-50","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/06\/17\/fundamental-outlook-at-1400-gmt-edt-0400-50\/","title":{"rendered":"Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Fx Research<\/span><\/p>\n

\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro gained significant ground-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3985 level and was supported around the $1.3805 level.\u00a0 Several factors contributed to the dollar\u2019s demise today. First, May headline consumer price inflation was up 0.1% m\/m and off 1.3% y\/y with the ex-food and energy component up +0.1% m\/m and +0.8% y\/y.\u00a0 The headline year-over-year decline was the sharpest in some 60 years.\u00a0 Second, it was reported the Federal Reserve may try to manage interest rate expectations with a more direct message when Federal Open Market Committee policymakers convene next week.\u00a0 Fed officials are undoubtedly uncomfortable with the recent rise in interest rates across the Treasury curve and may try to craft the message that expectations of a rate hike to withdraw some monetary stimuli are premature.\u00a0 Some economists believe the Fed may even adopt a similar tactic that Bank of Canada recently employed in suggested rates are unlikely to move higher before late 2010.\u00a0 Third, other data released in the U.S. today saw the current account deficit decline to \u2013US$ 101.5 billion in the January \u2013 March quarter, down from \u2013US$ 154.9 billion in Q4 2008, but still above economists\u2019 expectations.\u00a0 In eurozone news, European Union finance officials will convene tomorrow and Friday to discuss stronger supervision of European financial markets.\u00a0 Data released in the eurozone today saw the April EMU-16 global trade balance print at \u20ac2.7 billion, up from March\u2019s surplus of \u20ac1.8 billion.\u00a0\u00a0 Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3435 level.<\/p>\n

\u00a5\/ CNY<\/strong><\/p>\n

The yen appreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the \u00a595.50 level and was capped around the \u00a596.75 level.\u00a0 The Japanese government upgraded its overall economic assessment of the economy for the second consecutive month in June, reporting that exports and industrial production are improving.\u00a0 Notably, the government did not report the economy is \u201cworsening\u201d for the first time since December.\u00a0 Bank of Japan also raised its assessment of the economy, reporting the economy has \u201cbegun to stop worsening.\u201d\u00a0 Finance minister Yosano said the BoJ and government \u201cshare the exact same view on economic conditions\u201d and added the \u201cJanuary \u2013 March period was clearly the bottom\u201d for the current economic cycle.\u00a0 The government, however, noted capital expenditures and housing starts are \u201cdecreasing at a fast pace\u201d and said the employment situation is \u201csevere and worsening rapidly.\u201d Data released in Japan overnight saw revised May machine tool orders off 79.2%.\u00a0 The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.90% to close at \u00a59,840.85.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the \u00a5104.15 level.\u00a0 The euro moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the \u00a5134.60 level and was supported around the \u00a5132.35 level.\u00a0 The British pound moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the \u00a5155.60 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the yen and tested offers around the \u00a589.25 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar strengthened vis-\u00e0-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8360 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8330.<\/p>\n

\u20a4<\/strong><\/p>\n

The British pound lost ground vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6220 level and was capped around the $1.6480 level.\u00a0 North American dealers lifted cable from intraday lows.\u00a0 Data released in the U.K. today saw May jobless claims rise 39,300 while the claimant count rate of unemployment printed at 7.2%.\u00a0 Sterling was dented during European dealing after a report from Bank of England suggested further sterling strength would \u201creduce the boost to net trade arising from (sterling\u2019s) depreciation since summer 2007.\u201d\u00a0 On the other hand, BoE added sterling\u2019s recent appreciation \u201cmay reflect the unwinding of some excess pessimism\u201d about the U.K.\u00a0 Traders await comments from Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling at his annual Mansion House speech later in the session.\u00a0 BoE Governor King was quoted today as saying the U.K. banking system is too large, as are some U.K. banks.\u00a0 He also reported \u201cThere are certainly grounds for believing that the rapid falls in activity are coming to an end. But there are some equally solid reasons for believing that the path to full recovery could be protracted.\u201d\u00a0 Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.6110 level.\u00a0 The euro moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the \u20a40.8535 level and was supported around the \u20a40.8425 level.<\/p>\n

Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by\u00a0GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By GCI Financial – In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar strengthened vis-\u00e0-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8360…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2526"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2526\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}