{"id":23984,"date":"2011-09-21T08:00:06","date_gmt":"2011-09-21T12:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/2011\/09\/21\/who%e2%80%99s-next-in-semiconductor-ma\/"},"modified":"2011-09-21T08:00:06","modified_gmt":"2011-09-21T12:00:06","slug":"whos-next-in-semiconductor-ma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/09\/21\/whos-next-in-semiconductor-ma\/","title":{"rendered":"Who\u2019s Next in Semiconductor M&#038;A?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/September\/semiconductor-mergers-and-acquisitions.html\">Who&#8217;s Next in Semiconductor M&amp;A?<\/a><\/p>\n<p>by <a title=\"Justin Dove Archives\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/investment-experts\/justin-dove-archive.html\" target=\"_blank\">Justin Dove<\/a>, <em>Investment U<\/em> Research<br \/>\nTuesday, September 20, 2011<\/p>\n<p>If you can&#8217;t beat &#8216;em, just buy &#8216;em&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Broadcom&#8217;s<\/strong> (Nasdaq: <a title=\"Broadcom's (Nasdaq: BRCM)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ABRCM\" target=\"_blank\">BRCM<\/a>) acquisition last week of <strong>NetLogic<\/strong> (Nasdaq: <a title=\"NetLogic (Nasdaq: NETL)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ANETL\" target=\"_blank\">NETL<\/a>) is likely to set off a chain reaction as larger, older semiconductor companies try not to get left in the dust. Valued at 3.7 billion, it&#8217;s the largest semiconductor industry acquisition in seven years. The willingness of Broadcom to pay such a high premium represents the degree of paradigm shift in the industry.<\/p>\n<p>Semiconductor stocks across the board rose due to an overall market rally last week. But according to The Street, &#8220;The chip rally is notable because several stocks in the sector climbed on heavier volume &#8211; a sign that institutions are piling into the stocks.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>This institutional pickup could signal anticipation of a wave of consolidation within the industry.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Nitty Gritty on the <\/strong><strong> Semiconductor Industry <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>While Broadcom supplies chips that are used in many end products, such as wireless devices and iPods, NetLogic chips are key players in network processors. NetLogic&#8217;s innovation in networking processors fills a hole in Broadcom&#8217;s product line. Considering the deluge of network-connected devices entering the market, network processing will be a very important sector of the industry going forward.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Broadcom is now better positioned to meet growing customer demand for integrated, end-to-end communications and processing platforms for network infrastructure,&#8221; said Broadcom CEO Scott McGregor.<\/p>\n<p>In return, NetLogic shareholders stand to make a quick 57-percent gain over the stock&#8217;s previous Friday closing price if the deal holds up.<\/p>\n<p>However, the premium Broadcom is paying is actually just 15.5 percent greater than NetLogic stock&#8217;s 52-week high closing price of $43.28 on May 2. Broadcom&#8217;s timing represents two current opportunities for buyers in <a title=\"Semiconductor Industry Top Players\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/June\/nxp-semiconductor-google-wallet.html\" target=\"_blank\">the semiconductor industry<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The troubles in the broad market represent good values for stocks across the board.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The very cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry is currently in a downturn due to oversupply and lack of demand. This creates opportunities for bigger companies to take advantage of smaller, weaker companies and consolidate the industry.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>NetLogic vs. Cavium<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Many analysts and pundits have labeled <strong>Cavium Networks<\/strong> (Nasdaq: <a title=\"Cavium Networks (Nasdaq: CAVM)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ACAVM\" target=\"_blank\">CAVM<\/a>) as the most obvious choice for the next <a title=\"Three Steps to Predicting Takeover Targets\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/June\/3-steps-to-predicting-takeover-targets.html\" target=\"_blank\">takeover target<\/a>. That makes sense, considering Cavium and NetLogic are similar. Both companies play to roughly the same markets and before the deal was announced, were trading within $1 of each other.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/images\/netlogic-chart.jpg\" alt=\"Netlogic Microsystems vs Cavium Networks\" width=\"500\" height=\"225\" \/><\/p>\n<p>So why did Broadcom select NetLogic?<\/p>\n<p>Despite similarity in stock price, NetLogic has almost 20 million more shares outstanding. NetLogic also reported $100 million in net cash in Q2, compared to $70 million for Cavium. Since Broadcom now has access to that cash, it acts as a rebate. Broadcom selected a more valuable company. It&#8217;s also important to note that NetLogic recently entered the market of physical layer chips &#8211; one of Broadcom&#8217;s core strengths. So this move was defensive, as well.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, Piper Jaffray analyst Gus Richard calls Cavium&#8217;s chips &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.barrons.com\/techtraderdaily\/2011\/09\/12\/netlogic-soars-50-on-broadcom-buy-whither-cavium\/?mod=yahoobarrons\" target=\"_blank\">long in the tooth<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;BRCM is not buying CAVM and this confirms our view on the relative positioning of the two companies,&#8221; writes Richard. &#8220;While CAVM will likely get a bounce due to the acquisition of NETL, we do not believe [Broadcom&#8217;s competitors] would be interested in buying the company and do not believe there is a natural buyer.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Ouch. Obviously, Broadcom was able to get the pick of the litter, but the move could still force the hand of a Broadcom competitor trying to keep up.<\/p>\n<p>Using a $50-per-share premium and considering the cash on the books, Cavium would likely cost under $3 billion. Considering <strong>QUALCOMM <\/strong>(Nasdaq: <a title=\"QUALCOMM (Nasdaq: QCOM)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AQCOM\" target=\"_blank\">QCOM<\/a>) reported $5.7 billion in net cash last quarter, it doesn&#8217;t seem out of the realm of possibility, but only time will tell.<\/p>\n<p><strong>If Not Cavium, Who?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Another possible takeover target is <strong>EZchip Semiconductors<\/strong> (Nasdaq: <a title=\"EZchip Semiconductors (Nasdaq: EZCH)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AEZCH\" target=\"_blank\">EZCH<\/a>). While EZchip also specializes in networking processors, it has a less-diversified product offering than NetLogic and Cavium. It&#8217;s also relatively expensive, with a P\/E of 65 and just about $30 million in cash on the books.<\/p>\n<p><strong>PMC-Sierra<\/strong> (Nasdaq: <a title=\"PMC-Sierra (Nasdaq: PMCS)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NASDAQ%3APMCS\" target=\"_blank\">PMCS<\/a>) may be another attractive target. PMC-Sierra&#8217;s stock price is similar to Ezchip&#8217;s, but with 234 million shares, its market cap is closer to Cavium. The P\/E is also in line with Cavium, but the kicker is the whopping $170 million cash on the books last quarter.<\/p>\n<p>A sleeper, and possibly an attractive investment regardless of takeover, is <strong>Mindspeed Technologies, Inc.<\/strong> (Nasdaq: <a title=\"Mindspeed Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: MSPD)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AMSPD\" target=\"_blank\">MSPD<\/a>). Mindspeed also deals in networking processors, but has a relatively tiny market cap of approximately $200 million. Mindspeed also has a tiny P\/E, 13.18, relative to other technology and <a title=\"Freescale Semiconductor\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/August\/freescale-semiconductor.html\" target=\"_blank\">semiconductor companies<\/a>. Its low P\/E and $40 million in cash in the books make Mindspeed look like a real bargain for potential buyers and investors alike.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Watch Insider Options Activity<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>While guessing who will be acquired next is all speculation at this point, most signs are pointing to further consolidation.<\/p>\n<p>Although stocks such as Cavium and EZchip have experienced slight run-ups following the NetLogic move, it&#8217;s not too late to capitalize. Broadcom set the market premium around 50 percent, which may be too much to expect from an inferior company. But somewhere in the realm of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2011-09-13\/broadcom-s-steepest-chip-valuation-signaling-39-gain-for-cavium-real-m-a.html?cmpid=yhoo\" target=\"_blank\">30 or 40 percent<\/a> may be within reason.<\/p>\n<p>Investors should keep an ear out for rumors and keep an eye on options activity for some of the proposed targets. While it&#8217;s not always foolproof, it can be a short-term indicator that a deal will soon go down. As insiders and speculators gain confidence in a deal, they&#8217;ll purchase call options to take advantage of the deal without needing the large up-front investment of buying shares of the stock.<\/p>\n<p>Good investing,<\/p>\n<p>Justin Dove<\/p>\n<div>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=rvQwQcTtjnc:3Cj6_SEZuTY:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=rvQwQcTtjnc:3Cj6_SEZuTY:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=rvQwQcTtjnc:3Cj6_SEZuTY:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=rvQwQcTtjnc:3Cj6_SEZuTY:qj6IDK7rITs\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?d=qj6IDK7rITs\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=rvQwQcTtjnc:3Cj6_SEZuTY:gIN9vFwOqvQ\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=rvQwQcTtjnc:3Cj6_SEZuTY:gIN9vFwOqvQ\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=rvQwQcTtjnc:3Cj6_SEZuTY:F7zBnMyn0Lo\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=rvQwQcTtjnc:3Cj6_SEZuTY:F7zBnMyn0Lo\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/InvestmentU\/~4\/rvQwQcTtjnc\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Article by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Investment U<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Who&#8217;s Next in Semiconductor M&amp;A? by Justin Dove, Investment U Research Tuesday, September 20, 2011 If you can&#8217;t beat &#8216;em, just buy &#8216;em&#8230; Broadcom&#8217;s (Nasdaq: BRCM) acquisition last week of NetLogic (Nasdaq: NETL) is likely to set off a chain reaction as larger, older semiconductor companies try not to get left in the dust. Valued &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/09\/21\/whos-next-in-semiconductor-ma\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Who\u2019s Next in Semiconductor M&#038;A?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23984","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23984"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23984\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23984"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23984"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23984"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}