{"id":2366,"date":"2009-06-08T10:21:28","date_gmt":"2009-06-08T15:21:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=2366"},"modified":"2009-06-08T10:21:28","modified_gmt":"2009-06-08T15:21:28","slug":"eurusd-fights-back-above-528-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/06\/08\/eurusd-fights-back-above-528-lows\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Fights Back Above 5\/28 Lows"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers<\/strong> – Last Thursday\u2019s pullback on large volume was a warning sign, as we had feared.\u00a0 The EUR\/USD has continued its slide on heavy action, dropping back below the psychological 1.40 level.\u00a0 Volume remained at elevated levels during Friday\u2019s downturn, confirming the conviction of the pullback.\u00a0 Fortunately for bulls, the EUR\/USD has popped back above 5\/28 lows on declining volume and is balancing on our 3rd tier uptrend line, avoiding another collapse at least for the immediate-term.\u00a0 Despite the present stabilization, the pullback on such large volume is disconcerting, and gives us reason to believe there may be more room to go to the downside.\u00a0 Therefore, although the medium-term uptrend is still intact, it appears as if we\u2019ve entered a new near-term downtrend.\u00a0 If 5\/28 lows don\u2019t hold we could see a retracement towards the 1.35-1.355 zone.\u00a0 As for the upside, bulls should look out for a recovery above the psychological 1.40 level and our 2nd tier uptrend line on large volume.\u00a0 If this doesn\u2019t occur, then the currency pair may be inclined to continue its downward path.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen a quick, sizable appreciation of the Dollar across the board over the last few sessions, so the Euro is not alone.\u00a0 Even though many analysts highlight Friday\u2019s job report as the engine behind the appreciation, we believe the rise of the Dollar has more to do with the strong language from Bernanke concerning the need to tighten liquidity as soon as possible without squeezing the economic recovery.\u00a0 The probability of the Fed raising rates by year end has risen substantially over the past week, giving investors a reason to favor the Dollar.\u00a0 However, we also view the recent public addresses from both Bernanke and Geithner as a means to change the negative psychology surrounding the sustainability of the Dollar.\u00a0 Though psychology is obviously a strong market force, the fundamentals are still in favor of a medium-term uptrend in the EUR\/USD unless the currency pair should continue to collapse through strong supports on heavy volume.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s German Factor Order report came in line with analyst expectations and received a muted reaction.\u00a0 News will be relatively quiet on the economic data front in the EU this week. The U.S. will announce retail sales on Thursday which should be a market mover.\u00a0 However, although there isn\u2019t much data to sift through this week, investors should keep in mind that we have seen volatile sessions and light economic data over the past 8 months.<\/p>\n

Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.3891, 1.3945, 1.4003, 1.4035, and 1.4090.\u00a0 To the downside, we see supports of 1.3815, 1.3766, 1.3734, 1.3663, and 1.3581.\u00a0 The 1.40 area serves as a psychological resistance with 1.35 acting as a psychological cushion.\u00a0 The EUR\/USD is currently exchanging at 1.3871.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by Fast Brokers<\/strong><\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong> FastBrokers\u2019 market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell\/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n

Risk Disclosure:<\/strong> There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Fast Brokers – Last Thursday\u2019s pullback on large volume was a warning sign, as we had feared.\u00a0 The EUR\/USD has continued its slide on heavy action, dropping back below the psychological 1.40 level.\u00a0 Volume remained at elevated levels during Friday\u2019s downturn, confirming the conviction of the pullback.\u00a0 Fortunately for bulls, the EUR\/USD has popped … <\/p>\n

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