{"id":23533,"date":"2011-08-31T09:05:30","date_gmt":"2011-08-31T13:05:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=23533"},"modified":"2011-08-31T09:05:30","modified_gmt":"2011-08-31T13:05:30","slug":"how-to-tell-a-hawk-from-a-vulture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/08\/31\/how-to-tell-a-hawk-from-a-vulture\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Tell a Hawk from a Vulture"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Kris Sayce<\/abbr><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cParticipants noted that devoting additional time to discussion of the possible costs and benefits of various potential tools would be useful, and they agreed that the September meeting should be extended to two days in order to provide more time.\u201d<\/em> \u2013 Minutes of 9 August, Federal Open Markets Committee Meeting<\/p>\n

It\u2019s just a question of \u201cwhen\u201d not \u201cif\u201d.<\/p>\n

Money-Printing 3 is on the way.<\/p>\n

The mainstream likes to talk of monetary \u201chawks\u201d and \u201cdoves\u201d at the U.S. Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

The term \u201chawks\u201d refers to those who are supposedly cautious about keeping interest rates low as they fear it will cause higher inflation.<\/p>\n

The term \u201cdoves\u201d refers to those who are supposedly not cautious about keeping interest rates low. They see higher inflation as a necessary payoff in the drive to boost the economy.<\/p>\n

In reality there aren\u2019t any hawks and doves at the Fed. They\u2019re all just vultures in disguise.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re pro higher inflation and more money printing. It\u2019s just some are more pro-inflation than others.<\/p>\n

So whether it\u2019s at the Fed\u2019s September, November or December meeting (note: the Fed doesn\u2019t meet monthly, it meets a total of nine times this year), it\u2019s more likely than not that the Fed will unleash another round of money printing.<\/p>\n

You only have to read the latest minutes and compare the language to previous minutes to see they\u2019re gearing up for it.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The changing glass at the U.S. Fed<\/strong><\/div>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a quote from the March meeting noting non-farm payrolls:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe labor market continued to show signs of firming. Private nonfarm payroll employment rose noticeably in February after a small increase in January, with the swing in hiring likely magnified by widespread snowstorms, which may have held down the employment figure for January.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

In other words, the Fed liked what it saw. Which is hardly surprising seeing as it was half-way through its money-printing 2 ruse.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what the Fed said at the August meeting:<\/p>\n

\u201cPrivate nonfarm employment rose at a considerably slower pace in June and July than earlier in the year, and employment in state and local governments continued to trend lower. The unemployment rate edged up, on net, since the beginning of the year, and long-duration unemployment remained very high. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate moved down further through July.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Now look at the following chart. It shows monthly non-farm payroll numbers over the last two years:<\/p>\n

\"United<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: TradingEconomics.com<\/em><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

What do you notice the most? That\u2019s right, non-farm payroll numbers are volatile. It\u2019s pretty hard to analyse the data and draw conclusions on a monthly basis.<\/p>\n

Yet back in March when the Fed met, the members looked at the January and February numbers and liked what they saw. Things were heading in the right direction\u2026 they thought.<\/p>\n

Roll forward a few months and two months of low numbers, suddenly the Fed needs to do something.<\/p>\n

The other thing you\u2019ll notice from reading the August minutes is there\u2019s no mention of the drop in the July unemployment rate from 9.2% to 9.1%\u2026 and no mention of the fact that four days before the meeting the Labor Department announced total payrolls had beaten<\/em> market expectations.<\/p>\n

A cause for celebration? Not on your life. As far as the Fed is concerned, it\u2019s got to do something. If they highlight the positives, it\u2019s less reason for them to meddle.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Stuffing the economy<\/strong><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

So now the Fed has to focus on the negatives. We wouldn\u2019t want the economy righting itself would we? Not when there\u2019s meddling to be done\u2026<\/p>\n

But let\u2019s get something straight. The actual underlying economy hasn\u2019t changed. It was the same in June and July, as it was in March \u2013 stuffed.<\/p>\n

The only difference is the Fed is now doing the old \u201cglass half empty\u201d routine\u2026 so it can keep printing money and keep propping up its pals at the banks.<\/p>\n

And the markets can see the Fed money printing too. Traders are placing the same old bets. Gold has rebounded after the heavy sell-off last week. It\u2019s now trading at USD$1,827 and AUD$1,713.<\/p>\n

And as you\u2019d expect, traders are selling the safety of the Swiss franc and buying the risky Aussie dollar.<\/p>\n

As you know, the Swiss franc is one of our early warning signals for crashing markets. The climb back to CHF0.875 this morning has the alarm bells ringing again\u2026 albeit quietly at the moment.<\/p>\n

It tells you traders are backing out of safety and plunging forward into risky bets.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Enemy of the People<\/strong><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

The 500-point snapback in the Aussie market since the recent low proves this is happening. In fact, if you look at the charts, there\u2019s almost a perfect correlation between the Aussie dollar\/Swiss franc exchange rate (blue line), and the S&P\/ASX 200 (red line):<\/p>\n

\"Aussie<\/a>
\nClick here<\/a> to enlarge<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Google Finance<\/em><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

But remember: don\u2019t start thinking this is a sure sign of a strong Aussie economy and share market. The reality is that the extreme volatility is the result of the actions of one man\u2026 Dr. Ben S. Bernanke.<\/p>\n

Or as we prefer to call him: Public Enemy No. 1.<\/p>\n

And one thing is for sure, expect the volatility to continue as we approach and pass the next Fed meeting on September 20-21.<\/p>\n

Cheers.
\nKris<\/strong><\/p>\n

PS.<\/strong> Slipstream Trader<\/em> Murray Dawes is releasing another free market update on You Tube<\/em> this afternoon. I highly suggest you watch it. The volatility index (VIX) is pushing 30. And this month alone, billions has been wiped off the market (and billions put back on again). This market action is causing havoc for most traders. But Murray has been picking the swings like a peach. In fact, he\u2019s put his readers in a position to bank big gains. To see where Murray expects the market to head next, click here<\/a>\u2026 It\u2019s completely free.<\/p>\n

MoneyMorning Original Article: How to Tell a Hawk from a Vulture<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s just a question of \u201cwhen\u201d not \u201cif\u201d. Money-Printing 3 is on the way. The mainstream likes to talk of monetary \u201chawks\u201d and \u201cdoves\u201d at the U.S. Federal Reserve. The term \u201chawks\u201d refers to those who are supposedly cautious about keeping interest rates low as they fear it will cause higher inflation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23533\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}