{"id":2350,"date":"2009-06-05T13:50:34","date_gmt":"2009-06-05T18:50:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=2350"},"modified":"2009-06-05T13:50:34","modified_gmt":"2009-06-05T18:50:34","slug":"fundamental-outlook-at-1400-gmt-edt-0400-45","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2009\/06\/05\/fundamental-outlook-at-1400-gmt-edt-0400-45\/","title":{"rendered":"Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Fx Research <\/span><\/p>\n

\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro moved sharply lower vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3990 level and was capped around the US$ 1.4265 level.\u00a0 The common currency moved lower after the release of better-than-expected U.S. May non-farm payrolls data that saw payrolls growth of -345,000, considerably better than the -600,000+ number that economists were expecting.\u00a0 In contrast, however, the unemployment rate jumped to 9.4% from 8.9% in April, its highest level since August 2003.\u00a0 Additionally, there was a cumulative +83,000 upward jobs revision to March\u2019s and April\u2019s tally, suggesting the labour market was not as weak at the beginning of the second quarter as originally expected.\u00a0 Still, most economists believe the ongoing U.S. economic recovery will largely be a jobless recovery as most companies are slow to rehire new workers and major U.S. industries like the automotive sector lay-off massive amounts of people.\u00a0 U.S. Treasury yields continue to sell-off and the 10-year Note is now yielding 3.81%, its highest level since early November.\u00a0 This curve steepening either reflects more optimism about the U.S. economy, increased pessimism over the U.S.\u2019s fiscal state, or both.\u00a0 In eurozone news, European Commission member Alumnia said \u201cthe next quarters should show positive developments and growth should turn positive in the first part of 2010.\u201d European Central Bank member Weber cautiously reported \u201cWe are currently witnessing the fact that these extensive interventions are having some stabilizing effects on financial markets and have, judging by the initial signs, probably led to a slowdown in the rapid pace of the downswing in the real economy.\u00a0 Nevertheless, the future outlook remains uncertain.\u201d\u00a0 Speaking on interest rate policy, ECB\u2019s Hurley noted \u201cWe haven’t taken any decision that this is necessarily the lowest rate. We never pre-commit. We have to assess the data that emerges and make our decision on the basis of that data, so there’s no commitment but we are closely monitoring the situation going forward.\u201d Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3435 level.<\/p>\n

\u00a5\/ CNY<\/strong><\/p>\n

The yen depreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the \u00a598.20 level and was supported around the \u00a596.50 level.\u00a0 The yen was offered across the board as traders moved into higher-yielding assets following better-than-expected U.S. May non-farm payrolls data.\u00a0 Dealers continue to cite outgoing yen investment that is being directed to foreign corporate bond purchases and this continues to have a negative impact on the yen.\u00a0 Most Bank of Japan-watchers expect the central bank will keep monetary policy unchanged for the foreseeable future.\u00a0 The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.02% to close at \u00a59,768.01.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the \u00a5104.15 level.\u00a0 The euro moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the \u00a5139.20 level and was supported around the \u00a5136.85 level.\u00a0 The British pound moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the \u00a5158.50 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the yen and tested offers around the \u00a591.40 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar strengthened vis-\u00e0-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8315 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8298.<\/p>\n

\u20a4<\/strong><\/p>\n

The British pound weakened vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.5955 level and was capped around the $1.6240 level.\u00a0 Sterling continues to sell-off on escalating political uncertainty.\u00a0 A few of Prime Minister Brown\u2019s Cabinet members have resigned this week and there have been growing calls for Prime Minister Brown to step down as well.\u00a0 It appears Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling \u2013 himself ensnarled in the expenses scandal \u2013 will retain his portfolio.\u00a0 Brown has reshuffled his Cabinet and sterling is weaker on the premise that Brown will be forced out of office and the Tories will win the next election.\u00a0 Bank of England reported it has purchased \u20a479.9 billion of securities through its asset purchase facility so far.\u00a0 Data released in the U.K. today saw May factory gate prices decline 0.3% y\/y, the first yearly decline since 2002, while input prices were off at the fastest rate since 2001 at -42.2% y\/y.\u00a0 Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5790 level.\u00a0 The euro moved lower vis-\u00e0-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the \u20a40.8730 level and was capped around the \u20a40.8865 level.<\/p>\n

CHF<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0860 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0660 level.\u00a0 Data released in Switzerland today saw May consumer price inflation rise 0.2% m\/m and decline 1.0% y\/y.\u00a0 U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1165 level.\u00a0 The euro and British pound moved higher vis-\u00e0-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.5235 and CHF 1.7400 levels, respectively.<\/p>\n

Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by\u00a0GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By GCI Financial – The euro moved sharply lower vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2350"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2350\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}