{"id":23266,"date":"2011-08-17T11:25:20","date_gmt":"2011-08-17T15:25:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=23266"},"modified":"2011-08-17T11:25:20","modified_gmt":"2011-08-17T15:25:20","slug":"bears-yell-fire-in-empty-theater","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/08\/17\/bears-yell-fire-in-empty-theater\/","title":{"rendered":"Bears Yell Fire in Empty Theater"},"content":{"rendered":"

By David Banister, markettrendforecast.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s clarify the SP 500 situation here: (Sent to my paying subscribers on August 16th) <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Consider subscribing so that you will be consistently informed, have 24\/7 Email access to me with questions, and also get Gold and Silver forecasts on a regular basis. Subscribe now with a 33% discount coupon ahead of our rate increase. www.markettrendforecast.com<\/a> for details.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The lows at 1101 were a convergence of fibonacci weeks, months, sentiment bottoms and VIX extremes along with major insider buying all at the same time.<\/p>\n

We rallied up in 5 waves from 666 to 1370 Bin Laden highs.\u00a0 At that level we had re-traced 78.6% of the entire 2007 highs to 2009 lows, a common turning point.\u00a0 Since then, we have had a 3 wave decline, also common for correcting a 5 wave move to the upside.\u00a0 The decline halted at 1101, an exact 38% fibonacci retracement of the 666 lows to 1370 highs.\u00a0 This is what I call a \u201cfibonacci intersection\u201d. The same thing happened in July 2010 at 1010 on the SP 500, where a huge bottom formed.<\/p>\n

The rally since 1101 was a 5 wave rally, this is an early BULL SIGN.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

A correction of this 103 point 5 wave rally would be normal, but the lighter the correction the more Bullish.\u00a0 So far the correction is only 23% of the 104 point rally with a gap fill at 1180.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s review:<\/p>\n

13 fibonacci month\u2019s from the July 2010 bottom to August 2011 bottoms<\/p>\n

7 Times in history we had the SP 500 double ina short period of time, and in every case it retraced 27-40% of the price movement from lows to highs. We just retraced 40% of our SP 500 double, historically very high retracement.<\/p>\n

At 1101 we had 38% fibonacci ABC correction of the Bull leg from 666 to 1370<\/p>\n

In 1974-77 we had the SAME pattern, which I outlined for everyone last week.<\/p>\n

13 Fibonacci weeks correction from the Bin Laden 1370 highs to 1101 lows. 1370 was a 78% fib of the 07 highs and 09 lows. 1101 is a 38% fib of the 666 lows and 1370 highs. Thats what I call a Fibonacci intersection. The same thing happened in July 2010 at 1010 lows.<\/p>\n

Insiders with massive buying, corporate buybacks announced.<\/p>\n

VIX at extreme levels<\/p>\n

Fear gauges at extreme levels.<\/p>\n

5 wave impulsive rally from 1101 to 1204 ensued\u2026 now a pullback is due. Same thing happened last summer 1010 to 1130, pullback to1040 in 3 waves, then another 5 waves up.<\/p>\n

What am I telling everyone?<\/p>\n

Stop yelling fire in an empty theater\u2026.<\/p>\n

This is options expiration week, trading this week is notoriously difficult\u2026<\/p>\n

The Bear case is crowded, the Bull case is not.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m leaning bullish as long as I keep seeing this type of confirming price action.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m watching 1165 on SP 500 as a pivot low worst case, but as long as we see price action above that I like the set up for a while yet on the long side.<\/p>\n

(But Dave, the textbook for Elliott Waves doesn\u2019t agree with you\u2026 good, that\u2019s why I use other indicators)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Consider subscribing so that you will be consistently informed, have 24\/7 Email access to me with questions, and also get Gold and Silver forecasts on a regular basis. Subscribe now with a 33% discount coupon ahead of our rate increase. www.markettrendforecast.com<\/a> for details.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We rallied up in 5 waves from 666 to 1370 Bin Laden highs. At that level we had re-traced 78.6% of the entire 2007 highs to 2009 lows, a common turning point. Since then, we have had a 3 wave decline, also common for correcting a 5 wave move to the upside…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23266"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23266\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}