{"id":23032,"date":"2011-08-09T12:17:26","date_gmt":"2011-08-09T16:17:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=23032"},"modified":"2011-08-09T12:17:26","modified_gmt":"2011-08-09T16:17:26","slug":"is-tim-geithner-now-eating-his-words-u-s-wont-be-downgraded","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/08\/09\/is-tim-geithner-now-eating-his-words-u-s-wont-be-downgraded\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Tim Geithner Now Eating His Words U.S. Won&#8217;t Be Downgraded?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Over the past year we&#8217;ve spent a great deal of time pointing out the lies, called &#8220;revisions,&#8221; from President Obama and our Fed Chief, Big Ben Bernanke. We take no joy in calling your attention to the massive deficit of action from these two.<\/p>\n<p>But when you&#8217;re right&#8230; you&#8217;re right. In the past two weeks alone:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We&#8217;ve shown you that real&nbsp;<a title=\"The Economic Crisis Is Here\" href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/tpg\/taipan-daily\/taipan-daily-072611.html\" target=\"_self\">unemployment numbers<\/a>&nbsp;are in excess of 20%.<\/li>\n<li>The 2008-09 recession should really have been called a depression.<\/li>\n<li>And our 2011 first-quarter GDP wasn&#8217;t anything close to what both of these proclaimed as a slow, steady, <a title=\"The One Thing You Must Know\" href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/tpg\/taipan-daily\/taipan-daily-080411.html\" target=\"_self\">progress to recovery<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The truth is, our economy is still a disaster.<\/p>\n<p>Now we&#8217;ve been treated to the grandest revision of them all: Friday afternoon Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s lowered the U.S. credit rating to AA+. Of course, I&#8217;m no fan of S&amp;P. I&#8217;ve written pretty extensively about my feelings on the three ratings agencies. They provide little useful information and never in a timely manner.<\/p>\n<p>While the downgrade caught the rest of the world by surprise, it didn&#8217;t surprise our readers. That&#8217;s because we&#8217;ve written about it for more than a year and have taken full advantage of it.<\/p>\n<p>Sometimes it&#8217;s a difficult call. Others times, like when a politician stands up and adamantly denies or proclaims anything, rest assured it&#8217;s probably already happened.<\/p>\n<p>One of the earliest signs the U.S. debt was in serious trouble came on February 7,&nbsp;<strong>2010<\/strong>,<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>in a news interview on ABC&#8217;s&nbsp;<em>This Week<\/em>, when none other than U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was asked if the U.S. would lose our Triple-A rating. He responded:<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;Absolutely not. And that will never happen to this country.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>When a politician says anything is an absolute, take the other side of the bet. (Think Monica Lewinski and Clinton&#8217;s infamous quote, &#8220;I never had sexual relations with that women,&#8221; if you&#8217;re looking for an obvious example.)<\/p>\n<p>Mr. Geithner probably should have been reading our publications. If so, he would have had advance knowledge that this downgrade was coming.<\/p>\n<p>You see, Taipan readers were told a year ago that Dagong Global Credit Rating Company announced they were getting into the sovereign debt evaluation game:<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;China&#8217;s leading credit rating agency,&#8221; the U.K.&#8217;s<\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em>Telegraph<em>&nbsp;<\/em><em>reports, &#8220;has stripped America, Britain, Germany and France of their AAA ratings, accusing Anglo-Saxon competitors of ideological bias in [favor] of the West.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&#8212; Justice Litle,&nbsp;<em>Taipan Daily<\/em>, July&nbsp;<strong>2010<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Chinese aren&#8217;t the only ones who spotted the obvious and wrote about it.<\/p>\n<p>The&nbsp;<em>Financial Times<\/em>&nbsp;reported on July 18, 2011, that<\/p>\n<p><em>Egan-Jones has become the first U.S. rating agency to downgrade the country&#8217;s sovereign credit rating from triple A to double A plus as it focuses on the rapid rise in outstanding debt over the past five years.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m guessing you&#8217;ve never heard of Egan-Jones.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s good reason. This little research company is private. In other words, it doesn&#8217;t have the U.S. seal of approval as do the S&amp;P, Fitch and Moody&#8217;s.<\/p>\n<p>Egan-Jones is paid to perform and doesn&#8217;t have the government sponsorship the other three enjoy. Institutions pay Egan-Jones to anticipate what will happen in advance of market actions, the other three tell you what you already know.<\/p>\n<p>You tell me &#8212; which is more useful?<\/p>\n<p>Now I would like to give credit where due, and S&amp;P has performed a real service&nbsp;<em>if<\/em>&nbsp;their actions stir any positive steps in Washington. I&#8217;m not holding my breath, but at least the media is reporting it, unlike the Egan-Jones&#8217; or Dagong&#8217;s downgrades.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, Timmy G. tells us S&amp;P is wrong. He said that S&amp;P&#8217;s math was inaccurate by a couple trillion dollars. In the same breath he acknowledged the U.S. deficit is unsustainable.<\/p>\n<p>Timmy G. went so far as to say the actions showed &#8220;terrible judgment&#8221; and &#8220;a stunning lack of knowledge about the basic U.S. fiscal budget math.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>For an Obama insider to accuse anyone of poor judgment and lack of knowledge of basic math is the ultimate in hypocrisy. Washington is the very definition of these qualities.<\/p>\n<p>And as Rome burns, not even a note from the fiddle of President Obama.<\/p>\n<p>As I write, Treasury bonds are rallying, markets are swinging wildly, and the media and politicians are blaming the Tea Party for asking the U.S. to stop borrowing and spending.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, we&#8217;ll hear nothing from our presidential hopefuls. This speaks volume to their leadership character, or lack thereof. I will have to exclude Tea Party favorite Ron Paul, who may have been the only one warning of this longer than the writers here.<\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S.<\/strong>&nbsp;One unintended consequence may be a flood of municipal bonds entering the market if their triple-A ratings are tied to Treasuries. If this happens, prices for munis may get cheap and worthy of consideration.<\/p>\n<p><em>Written by Joseph McBrennan for Taipan Publishing Group. Additional valuable content can be syndicated via our<\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em><em><a title=\"Go To: Subscribe to Taipan's RSS Feed\" href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/taipan\" target=\"_blank\"><em>RSS feed<\/em><\/a>. Check us out on <\/em><em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TaipanGroup\">http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TaipanGroup<\/a><\/em><em> or follow us on <\/em><em><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/\">http:\/\/twitter.com\/<\/a> under Taipan_Trader<\/em><em>. Republish without charge. Required: Author attribution, links back to original content or <a title=\"Go To Taipan Publishing Group's Homepage\" href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/\" target=\"_blank\"><em>www.taipanpublishinggroup.com<\/em><\/a>. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over the past year we&#8217;ve spent a great deal of time pointing out the lies, called &#8220;revisions,&#8221; from President Obama and our Fed Chief, Big Ben Bernanke. We take no joy in calling your attention to the massive deficit of action from these two. But when you&#8217;re right&#8230; you&#8217;re right. In the past two weeks &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/08\/09\/is-tim-geithner-now-eating-his-words-u-s-wont-be-downgraded\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Is Tim Geithner Now Eating His Words U.S. Won&#8217;t Be Downgraded?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23032"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23032\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}