{"id":21868,"date":"2011-06-22T12:57:19","date_gmt":"2011-06-22T16:57:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/?p=21342"},"modified":"2011-06-22T12:57:19","modified_gmt":"2011-06-22T16:57:19","slug":"why-investors-shouldnt-ignore-the-steel-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/06\/22\/why-investors-shouldnt-ignore-the-steel-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Investors Shouldn\u2019t Ignore the Steel Industry"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"post_title\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/June\/dont-ignore-steel-industry.html\">Why Investors Shouldn&#8217;t Ignore the Steel Industry<\/a><\/p>\n<p>by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/investment-experts\/marc-lichtenfeld.html\" >Marc Lichtenfeld<\/a>, Senior Analyst, <em>Investment U<\/em><br \/>\nWednesday, June 22, 2011: Issue #1540<\/p>\n<p>While most investors are focused on precious metals, I  prefer to look for investment opportunities in markets less traveled.<\/p>\n<p>Sure, precious metals are still wildly popular &#8211; or not  popular enough &#8211; depending on who you ask. And they&#8217;re always in the mainstream  consciousness. Either the dollar is going to be worthless and gold and silver  will be the only true stores of value, or precious metals are in a bubble and  will correct to more reasonable levels. Again, it depends who you ask.<\/p>\n<p>But there&#8217;s another type of metal that I have my eye on. It&#8217;s one that hasn&#8217;t enjoyed the kind of run-up that gold and silver had recently.<\/p>\n<p>Steel,  and the companies that make the  industrial metal, have been sinking like a piece of iron in a swimming pool. And this decline is likely to continue, here&#8217;s   why&#8230;<span id=\"more-21342\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Steel Industry Faces Weakening Demand and Price Erosion <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Last week, <strong>Steel  Dynamics<\/strong> (Nasdaq: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NASDAQ:STLD\" >STLD<\/a>) tanked after issuing an earnings warning. The  company said second-quarter earnings per share would be $0.35 to $0.40 rather  than the $0.57 Wall Street was expecting. The lower-than-expected guidance was  due to a slump in orders in April and increasing costs.<\/p>\n<p>Other companies within <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/March\/investing-in-the-steel-industry.html\" >the steel industry<\/a>, including <strong>Arcelor Mittal<\/strong> (NYSE: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NYSE:MT\" >MT<\/a>) and <strong>Nucor <\/strong>(NYSE: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NYSE:NUE\" >NUE<\/a>), have also been weak as more investors question the economic  recovery.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The International Monetary Fund recently cut its U.S. 2011  GDP estimate to 2.5 percent from 2.8 percent as more evidence of a slowdown  emerges.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Last month, 28 states lost construction jobs versus the 22 that added  them.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Should the recovery falter, it&#8217;ll be particularly painful  for steel companies, as construction is a bellwether of economic activity,  particularly new homes.<\/p>\n<p>And the folks who are buying steel are losing their  optimism. <em>The Steel Market Update&#8217;s<\/em> Steel Buyer&#8217;s Sentiment Index, while  still positive, is at its lowest level of the year due to concerns about price  erosion and weakening demand.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Even those involved  in segments of the steel industry which have been doing relatively well since  the beginning of the year &#8211; such as automotive &#8211; were displaying signs of  concern about lack of strength in the overall U.S. economy,&#8221; said John Packard,  Publisher of <em>The Steel Market Update<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Responses from the survey included:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;Still not fully recovered and manufacturing does not exist in a lot of markets to aid in any recovery.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;Still no significant uptick in the backlog. Extended commitments are not happening.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Citigroup Expecting Steel Industry to Have Negative EVA <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>And Citigroup is not a big fan of the sector, expecting  steel companies to have negative EVA (economic value added) in 2011 through 2013.  EVA is a measure of profitability over cost of capital. Citi expects aluminum  and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/March\/uranium-prices-emerging-markets.html\" >uranium companies<\/a> to also have negative EVA during that period.<\/p>\n<p>The weakening of the entire steel sector is analogous to the following chart  of <strong>Market Vectors Steel Index ETF<\/strong> (NYSE: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NYSE:SLX\" >SLX<\/a>)&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/images\/mkt-vctr-steel.jpg\" alt=\"Market Vector Steel Index ETF (NYSE: SLX) Analogous to Whole Sector Decline\" width=\"450\" height=\"312\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Allegheny Technologies: A Vulnerable Steel Company <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>One steel company that I think looks particularly vulnerable  is <strong>Allegheny Technologies<\/strong> (NYSE: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NYSE:ATI\" >ATI<\/a>).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The company trades at 53 times earnings, higher than the  industry average of 41.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Yet, at the same time, its return on equity is lower  than its average peer.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>It generates a significant portion of its revenue from the  aerospace and defense sectors, which up until now have been healthy. In fact,  on Monday, companies announced more than $20-billion worth of airplane orders  at the Paris Air Show.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>However, those robust assumptions are baked into the share  price. Allegheny&#8217;s stock jumped yesterday on the news. Any slowdown in orders  from those customers would have a profound effect on Allegheny&#8217;s top and bottom  lines.<\/p>\n<p>And with the budget deficit a political football, I wouldn&#8217;t  be surprised to see some defense funds cut, particularly for things like new  expensive planes.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/images\/allegheny-tech.jpg\" alt=\"Allegheny Technologies (NYSE:ATI) Chart\" width=\"450\" height=\"312\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When Allegheny popped yesterday on the news, it rose above a  key resistance level. If it drops back below $60, it looks like a great  shorting opportunity, or a spot for longs to cut their losses.<\/p>\n<p>I think Allegheny has risk to $49, which would put it more  in line with its peers on a price-to-earnings basis.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>For speculators, shorting  <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2010\/February\/steel-industry-pros-and-cons.html\" >steel companies<\/a> looks like an  interesting short- to intermediate-term opportunity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Those who want to get long  should wait a few months to pick shares up on the cheap.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Good investing,<\/p>\n<p>Marc Lichtenfeld<\/p>\n<div class=\"feedflare\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=BhJFENZO4Gg:_Pv0bvzm3f8:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=BhJFENZO4Gg:_Pv0bvzm3f8:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=BhJFENZO4Gg:_Pv0bvzm3f8:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=BhJFENZO4Gg:_Pv0bvzm3f8:qj6IDK7rITs\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?d=qj6IDK7rITs\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=BhJFENZO4Gg:_Pv0bvzm3f8:gIN9vFwOqvQ\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=BhJFENZO4Gg:_Pv0bvzm3f8:gIN9vFwOqvQ\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=BhJFENZO4Gg:_Pv0bvzm3f8:F7zBnMyn0Lo\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=BhJFENZO4Gg:_Pv0bvzm3f8:F7zBnMyn0Lo\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/InvestmentU\/~4\/BhJFENZO4Gg\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/June\/dont-ignore-steel-industry.html\">Why Investors Shouldn&#8217;t Ignore the Steel Industry<\/a><\/p>\n<p>by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/investment-experts\/marc-lichtenfeld.html\" target=\"_blank\">Marc Lichtenfeld<\/a>, Senior Analyst, <em>Investment U<\/em><br \/>\nWednesday, June 22, 2011: Issue #1540<\/p>\n<p>While most investors are focused on precious metals, I  prefer to look for investment opportunities in markets less&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21868"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21868\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}