{"id":21658,"date":"2011-06-13T10:14:13","date_gmt":"2011-06-13T14:14:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/?p=20217"},"modified":"2011-06-13T10:14:13","modified_gmt":"2011-06-13T14:14:13","slug":"tech-bubble-or-just-hot-air-you-be-the-judge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/06\/13\/tech-bubble-or-just-hot-air-you-be-the-judge\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Bubble or Just Hot Air? You Be the Judge\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"post_title\" href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/June\/tech-bubble-or-hot-air.html\">Tech Bubble or Just Hot Air? You Be the Judge&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n<p>by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/investment-experts\/alex-green-archives.html\" >Alexander Green<\/a>, <em>Investment U&#8217;s<\/em> Chief Investment Strategist<br \/>\nMonday, June 13, 2011: Issue #1533<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s  a lot of talk on the Street right now about a new &#8220;bubble&#8221; in tech stocks.<\/p>\n<p>If  you&#8217;re talking about social network stocks, this may be true. Is there anyone  out there who hasn&#8217;t heard how <strong>LinkedIn<\/strong> (NYSE: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NYSE:LNKD\" >LNKD<\/a>) doubled right out  of the gate after its IPO last month?<\/p>\n<p>But  this euphoria has hardly spread to the rest of the sector. The Nasdaq is no higher than it was at the  beginning of the year. And while many of our recommended tech stocks are  soaring, there&#8217;s no tulip-bulb mania like the one that took place in late 1999  and early 2000. Solid fundamentals undergird the current tech rally.<\/p>\n<p>That  was not the case in the last real tech bubble &#8211; one we called &#8220;the greatest  investment mania of our lifetimes and perhaps of all time.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Eleven  years ago, the Nasdaq hit an all-time high of 5,048. Valuations hit nosebleed  levels. Many tech stocks sold for more than 100 times earnings. Others didn&#8217;t  even have a multiple. After all, you can&#8217;t calculate a P\/E if you don&#8217;t have an  E (earnings)&#8230;<span id=\"more-20217\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Things  are different today. For starters, the Nasdaq Index, more than a decade on,  trades at less than 60 percent of its March 2000 high.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sales  and earnings are solid and rising.<\/li>\n<li>Valuations are reasonable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Key Indicators That Tech Stocks Remain Promising <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>And  the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/January\/the-looming-tech-sector-cash-wave.html\" >outlook for tech companies<\/a> remains promising. Here are just a few key  indicators:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Profit  margins at U.S. technology companies are near record highs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Chipmakers  &#8211; who saw sales rise 28 percent in 2010 &#8211; are seeing stronger demand for  consumer items and businesses are finally making purchases that were delayed in  the recession.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Respected  research firm, Gartner, reports that sales of server systems are climbing, a  sign that large technology firms are spending again on big tech projects.  (Sales of server systems generally precede spending on other technology  products, such as storage systems and software.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>There&#8217;s  plenty of fuel for merger and acquisition activity. U.S. corporations are  currently sitting on nearly $2 trillion in cash.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The  Fed&#8217;s <em>Beige Book<\/em> reports that manufacturers of high-tech products are operating  near maximum capacity of late.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Due  in part to record demand in Asia and Latin America, the market for mobile  devices such as handsets and media players is expected to top two billion this  year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>International  Data Corporation (IDC) estimates that worldwide IT spending will top $1.5 trillion  in 2011, with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/February\/the-tech-trend-crushing-the-pc.html\" >spending on PCs<\/a>, servers, and storage and networking gear  expected to soar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Global  capital spending on wireless infrastructure will rise dramatically as carriers  in the developed world start deploying next-generation 4G networks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The  Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) reports that broadband stimulus  funds will contribute to double-digit growth in backbone infrastructure  spending this year and next.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Investing in Technology &#8211; A Smart Business Move <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With  the economic recovery weak and consumer spending soft, most businesses aren&#8217;t  willing to hire in a big way right now or commit funds to major building  projects. But they&#8217;re eager to cut costs in order to maintain or increase  corporate profits.<\/p>\n<p>That  makes <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/icloud-and-cloud-computing.html\" >investing in technology<\/a> a smart business move. And that, in turn, indicates  that business for many tech firms will keep rising in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Right  now we&#8217;re sitting on more than a dozen double- and triple-digit gains on the  tech stocks in our paid advisory portfolios.<\/p>\n<p>Outside of social networks, we  see no tech bubble. Quite the opposite, in fact. Leading technology firms  should see rising sales, earnings and share price appreciation in the months  ahead. In our view, the best is yet to come.<\/p>\n<p>Good investing,<\/p>\n<p>Alexander Green<\/p>\n<div class=\"feedflare\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=2q30uCrxmQ0:lYgj0R135-M:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=2q30uCrxmQ0:lYgj0R135-M:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=2q30uCrxmQ0:lYgj0R135-M:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=2q30uCrxmQ0:lYgj0R135-M:qj6IDK7rITs\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?d=qj6IDK7rITs\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=2q30uCrxmQ0:lYgj0R135-M:gIN9vFwOqvQ\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=2q30uCrxmQ0:lYgj0R135-M:gIN9vFwOqvQ\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?a=2q30uCrxmQ0:lYgj0R135-M:F7zBnMyn0Lo\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/InvestmentU?i=2q30uCrxmQ0:lYgj0R135-M:F7zBnMyn0Lo\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/InvestmentU\/~4\/2q30uCrxmQ0\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/2011\/June\/tech-bubble-or-hot-air.html\">Tech Bubble or Just Hot Air? You Be the Judge&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n<p>by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investmentu.com\/investment-experts\/alex-green-archives.html\" target=\"_blank\">Alexander Green<\/a>, <em>Investment U&#8217;s<\/em> Chief Investment Strategist<br \/>\nMonday, June 13, 2011: Issue #1533<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s  a lot of talk on the Street right now about a new&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21658"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21658\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}