If I listen to the market commentators on TV, they seem to tell me that things are going well\u2026<\/p>\n
However, when I look at the price of oil hitting $112 a barrel and gasoline prices heading back to $4 a gallon are we back to \u201cgood times\u201d\u2026when I look at unemployment level I see that the U.S. is at 8.8% still. Are those good times? I see that Obama is going to talk about raising taxes in a speech tomorrow. Are those good times? I see that if we don\u2019t raise our debt ceiling before May 16th, then we\u2019ll have utter chaos.<\/p>\n
Now does all of that equal \u201cgood times\u201d? I can\u2019t see it.<\/p>\n
When I drive through neighborhoods, I still see too many foreclosure signs in the yards. I still see over 44\u00a0 million Americans on government assistance programs, etc.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why I believe the Elliott Wave counts are correct. They count the recent rally as a correction upward in a larger bear market.That\u2019s very different from the recent upswing being a new \u201cbull market\u201d. Big difference.<\/p>\n
I also think the correction upward in stocks could be nearing its end now or may have even ended already. If the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq can\u2019t push through their former highs, then we\u2019re probably looking at a double top on those charts. If you consider things like the huge MACD divergences on those charts, then it\u2019s even more likely that a top could be forming.<\/p>\n
When you look at all of this and then you consider that most of the G-7 nations can\u2019t even grow at 1% right now on a year-over-year basis\u2026you know that we\u2019re on the bring of another recession. In fact, New Zealand, the U.K. and Japan all have negative GDP readings right now.<\/p>\n
So if something doesn\u2019t change drastically and quickly, then those tough times could be back.<\/p>\n
If they do\u2026this time we\u2019d have tough times with higher debt levels than before. We\u2019d have tough times but with weaker dollars due to all of the \u201cmoney printing\u201d from the Fed. We\u2019d have tough times but still high inflation\u2026.again due to the money printing program of the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n
Okay, but here is the good part\u2026even when there is a gloomy picture, there are still plenty of opportunities to make money trading currency pairs. You can trade successfully through both bull and bear markets in stocks. You can have success through high unemployment or low unemployment\u2026high oil prices or low, etc. That\u2019s the good news\u2026and that\u2019s why I love trading in the forex market. It gives me more control over my future in the midst of many things going on around me which are far out of my control.<\/p>\n
Sean Hyman<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n info@worldcurrencywatch.com<\/a><\/p>\n Editor,\u00a0Currency Cross Trader<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n