{"id":20022,"date":"2011-03-10T08:45:30","date_gmt":"2011-03-10T13:45:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=20022"},"modified":"2011-03-10T08:45:30","modified_gmt":"2011-03-10T13:45:30","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-the-dollar-makes-significant-gains-during-the-asia-session","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/03\/10\/forex-daily-market-commentary-the-dollar-makes-significant-gains-during-the-asia-session\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary: The dollar makes significant gains during the Asia session"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)<\/strong><\/strong>
\n
\nUSD<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar made significant gains during the Asia session after February trade data out of China disappointed consensus expectations. Although Lunar New Year celebrations are likely the cause of the unexpected deficit, investors were in no mood to take chances, and the US dollar strengthened against all its G10 peers. Earlier the NZD experienced some weakness of its own when the RBNZ cut the policy rate by 50bp (only a 25bp cut had been expected by consensus). This triggered an immediate 50-pip selloff in NZDUSD, but it soon partially retraced. EURUSD traded 1.3865-1.3925, and USDJPY traded 82.58-82.88. Asian equities are also weaker, after the S&P 500 finished down -0.14%. Gold and brent crude were both tightly range-bound. Our analysts expect initial jobless claims to tick slightly higher to 370k, while still leaving the broader downtrend intact.
\n
\nEUR<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Newswires reported that a French government source said EU leaders will not discuss Greek debt restructuring at the upcoming summit on Friday.
\nSovereign bond yields remain elevated, and while the ECB\u2019s apparent determination to push towards policy normalization has supported the euro over the past week, sovereign risk concerns are clearly coming back to the forefront, capping euro upside.
\n
\nCHF<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The CPI print was stronger than consensus at 0.5% y\/y. While the Swiss franc strengthened on the data, we doubt this stronger inflation print will be enough to shake the SNB out of its current stance. Relative central bank tightening expectations continue to favour EURCHF upside, supporting our long EURCHF trade recommendation.
\n
\nAUD<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The AUD got a small boost from a mixed February employment report which on balance slightly beat expectations. Although employment fell by -10.1k (cons. +20k), full-time jobs expanded by 47.6k. The unemployment rate was steady and in line with consensus at 5.0%.
\n
\nNZD<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bp, taking the policy rate back to its crisis low of 2.5%. Governor Bollard noted that the recent earthquake has caused \u2018immense disruption to business activity\u2019, and that economic activity nationwide would be negatively impacted. The RBNZ expects GDP growth will be \u2018quite weak\u2019 in H1, but this will eventually give way to a \u201cvery large reconstruction program by 2012\u2033. As far as policy guidance is concerned, Bollard added that the \u201ccurrent monetary policy accommodation\u201d will need to be removed once the rebuilding phase materializes, although he was clear that \u201cfuture monetary policy adjustments\u201d will be guided by incoming data.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/strong>
\nEURJPY 114.19 support.
\nEURUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.3989 would open up 1.4036\/86 area next. Support is defined at 1.3833.
\nUSDJPY NEUTRAL Near-term resistance at 83.07, while support is at 82.21.
\nGBPUSD NEUTRAL Recovery through 1.6344 required for resumption of uptrend. On the downside, pullback through 1.6126 would expose 1.6072.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH As long as resistance at 0.9392 holds, expect losses towards 0.9262\/00 zone ahead of 0.8951 next.
\nAUDUSD NEUTRAL 1.0202 and 0.9944 mark the near-term directional triggers.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Currently holds support at 0.9668 ahead of 0.9600. Resistance is defined at 0.9776.
\nEURCHF BULLISH Support at 1.2788 holds, initial resistance at 1.3040 ahead of 1.3086.
\nEURGBP BULLISH Move above 0.8636 would open up 0.8654\/72 area. Near-term support is at 0.8479.
\nEURJPY BULLISH As long as the cross maintains above 114.19, expect gains to target 116.00\/65 and 118.07.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar made significant gains during the Asia session after February trade data out of China disappointed consensus expectations. Although Lunar New Year celebrations are likely the cause of the unexpected deficit, investors were in no mood to take chances, and the US dollar strengthened against all its G10 peers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20022\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}