{"id":19785,"date":"2011-02-25T08:00:52","date_gmt":"2011-02-25T13:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=19785"},"modified":"2011-02-25T08:00:52","modified_gmt":"2011-02-25T13:00:52","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-223","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/02\/25\/forex-daily-market-commentary-223\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar continued to surrender ground during the Asia session, \t\t\tand USDCHF set a new all-time low. EURUSD traded 1.3787-1.3838, \t\t\tUSDJPY traded 81.68- 82.07. The euro and sterling remain supported \t\t\tby the prospect of rate hikes to tame inflationary pressures, \t\t\tespecially as oil prices stay firm due to tensions across the Middle \t\t\tEast and North Africa. Even a better initial jobless claims could \t\t\tnot boost the dollar as Treasury yields remained subdued and oil \t\t\tprices elevated. Jobless claims fell more than anticipated, \t\t\tcontinuing the recent downtrend. January headline durable goods \t\t\torders rose, while orders ex-transportation were much weaker. New \t\t\thome sales also fell more than expected, declining 12.6% m\/m. St \t\t\tLouis Fed President Bullard, a non-voter in 2011, said the economic \t\t\toutlook has improved since QE2 was announced and that “the natural \t\t\tdebate now is whether to complete the program, or to taper off to a \t\t\tsomewhat lower level of asset purchases.” Our analysts team notes \t\t\tthat this is significant because he is historically a hawk but has \t\t\tbeen very supportive of the QE2 program. He isn’t making a strong \t\t\targument for curtailing the QE2 program, but is certainly \t\t\thighlighting the risk that the Fed might do that.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Bundesbank President Weber said interest rates can only go up in the \t\t\tfuture, which briefly boosted the euro. Bundesbank board member \t\t\tDombret was also hawkish, saying that second-round price effects \t\t\tcannot be ruled out.
\nGerman GDP for Q4 was confirmed at 4.0% y\/y, 0.4% q\/q, driven by \t\t\tstrong export growth and public spending. Our European economists \t\t\tnote that the release shows a less balanced growth picture than in \t\t\tQ3, with capex down and private consumption sluggish.
\nItaly is planning on selling approx. EUR5 bn in 2021 bonds, EUR3 bn \t\t\tin 2013 bonds and EUR1.5 bn in 2017 bonds. Recent auctions have gone \t\t\twell, though their impact on euro sentiment has diminished given \t\t\tthat rate hike expectations are currently dominant. Our fixed income \t\t\tstrategy colleagues point out that the behaviour of Italian spreads \t\t\tappears to have become more ‘core-like’ over the past year, which \t\t\tcould mean these auctions are well received.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

BoE MPC Member Sentance stuck to his hawkish line repeating that the \t\t\ttime has come to increase interest rates. Fellow policymaker Posen \t\t\tsaid that his view on the need for more Gilt purchases has not \t\t\tchanged.
\nWe expect no revision to Q4 GDP growth. The initial estimate \t\t\tseverely disappointed, triggering a sterling selloff. However, today \t\t\tsterling is likely to remain supported as the market continues to \t\t\tfocus on the prospect of an early BoE rate hike.
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

We expect a slight dip in the KOF leading indicator but external \t\t\tdevelopments remain the key driver for the Swiss franc these days, \t\t\tas it continues to benefit from safe haven flows. Nevertheless, keep \t\t\tan eye on the data as an accommodative SNB and the end of Swiss \t\t\teconomic outperformance could put some downward pressure on CHF.
\n NZD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

An RBNZ spokesman denied speculation that the RBNZ is planning to \t\t\thold an emergency policy meeting to address the aftermath of this \t\t\tweek’s earthquake.
\nS&P became the third major ratings agency to say that New Zealand’s \t\t\tcredit rating has not been affected by the quake.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nUSDCHF clears 0.9329\/01.
\nEURUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.3744 exposes 1.3826 and 1.3862 next. \t\t\tNear term support is at 1.3647.
\nUSDJPY NEUTRAL Decline through 82.34 has exposed 81.78, while \t\t\tresistance lies at 82.89.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH Bullish pressure holds below 1.6279\/99 resistance \t\t\tzone. Near-term support comes in at 1.6101.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Negative momentum continues; breach of 0.9329\/01 \t\t\tsupport area has exposed 0.9241. Near-term resistance at 0.9506.
\nAUDUSD NEUTRAL 1.0158 and 0.9944 mark the near-term directional \t\t\ttriggers.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Initial support is at 0.9816 ahead of 0.9745\/12 area. \t\t\tResistance at 0.9959.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Push below 1.2774 would expose 1.2709. Initial \t\t\tresistance at 1.2958.
\nEURGBP NEUTRAL Move above 0.8514 would expose 0.8533. Near-term \t\t\tsupport lies at 0.8384.
\nEURJPY BULLISH Focus is on 114.19, breach of this level would expose \t\t\t114.94. Support holds at 112.09.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar continued to surrender ground during the Asia session, and USDCHF set a new all-time low. EURUSD traded 1.3787-1.3838, USDJPY traded 81.68- 82.07. The euro and sterling remain supported by the prospect of rate hikes to tame inflationary pressures, especially as oil prices stay firm due to tensions across the Middle East and North Africa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19785\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}