{"id":19709,"date":"2011-02-21T08:30:06","date_gmt":"2011-02-21T13:30:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=19709"},"modified":"2011-02-21T08:30:06","modified_gmt":"2011-02-21T13:30:06","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-219","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/02\/21\/forex-daily-market-commentary-219\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Price action lacked conviction during the Asia session, despite the \t\t\temergence of a partial agreement at the weekend G20 meeting. EURUSD \t\t\ttraded 1.3666-1.3716, USDJPY 83.02-83.19. The S&P 500 finished up \t\t\t0.19% with volumes hitting a three-week high. The G20 agreed on a \t\t\tset of economic indicators that could eventually be used to measure \t\t\tthe scale of global imbalances. The list includes public debt and \t\t\tfiscal deficits, private debt and the savings rate, and the trade \t\t\tbalance and net investment income flows and transfers. Newswires \t\t\treported that China blocked the inclusion of FX reserves and the \t\t\treal effective exchange rate as two other indicators. The objective \t\t\tnow is to set guideline levels for this list of indicators by the \t\t\tApril meeting, but the communique stressed that these would only be \t\t\tindicative and would not represent firm targets. The text also \t\t\trepeated a commitment to enhance “exchange rate flexibility to \t\t\tbetter reflect underlying economic fundamentals” and to avoid both \t\t\t“persistent misalignment” and “disorderly movements” of exchange \t\t\trates. Canada’s Finance Minister Flaherty said “there was no \t\t\tindication by China that they intended to be more flexible with \t\t\ttheir currency immediately”. US Treasury Secretary Geithner said \t\t\tthat China’s currency “remains substantially undervalued”.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

ECB Executive Board member Bini-Smaghi spoke overnight, but his \t\t\tremarks failed to excite the euro in the way they did on Friday. \t\t\tHowever, he did express concern that the rise in food prices may be \t\t\tpermanent, which clearly qualifies as a hawkish remark.
\nOn Friday Bini-Smaghi said that “as the economy gradually recovers \t\t\tand global inflationary pressures arise, the degree of accommodation \t\t\tof monetary policy has to be monitored and, if needed, corrected”. \t\t\tThe remarks signaled no ambition to tighten policy in the near term \t\t\tbut, coming on the heels of an above-consensus German PPI reading, \t\t\tthe market interpreted them as hawkish.
\nECB President Trichet said that the rising price of commodities and \t\t\tenergy is being watched “very, very closely”, and that consequent \t\t\tinflationary pressures “are to be taken seriously”.
\nUS Treasury Secretary Geithner said EU leaders made it clear at the \t\t\tG20 meeting that they would do “whatever it takes” to ensure \t\t\tEurozone nations “and their banks” have access to Financing.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Finance Minister Noda said that Japan plans to continue buying bonds \t\t\tissued by the European Financial Stability Facility.<\/p>\n


\nGBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

BoE Deputy Governor Tucker spoke on Friday night but confined his \t\t\tremarks to regulatory issues, and did not discuss monetary policy. \t\t\tThe latest minutes show that Tucker favoured no policy adjustment in \t\t\tJanuary. The minutes from the Feb. 10 policy meeting, which are due \t\t\tfor release on Wednesday, will reveal whether he or other MPC \t\t\tmembers have since shifted their stance away from neutral.<\/p>\n


\nCAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

BoC Governor Carney said it is possible that Q4 GDP growth could be \t\t\tfirmer than the +2.3% y\/y projected in the January monetary policy \t\t\treport.
\nFinance Minister Flaherty said that Canadian business overall “is \t\t\tcomfortable” with the current level of the CAD.
\nThe CAD weakened on Friday after headline and core CPI for January \t\t\tcame in below consensus expectations.<\/p>\n


\nAUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

AUDUSD briefly fell on Friday after China hiked its reserve ratio \t\t\trequirement by 50bp. As investors have become more accustomed to \t\t\tsuch hikes over the past year, the AUD has become progressively less \t\t\ttroubled by them.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURUSD 1.3744 resistance.
\nEURUSD BULLISH Rise above 1.3696 has exposed 1.3744 ahead of 1.3826. \t\t\tNear-term support at 1.3546.
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Pullback through 83.10 has exposed 82.89. While this \t\t\tlevel holds, expect recovery towards 83.98.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH The pair targets 1.6279\/99 resistance zone. Support \t\t\tis defined at 1.6149.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Violation of 0.9451 triggers negative tone. Next \t\t\tsupport lies at 0.9329\/01 area. Initial resistance at 0.9539.
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Momentum is positive; break above 1.0200 would expose \t\t\t1.0256, support defined at 1.0018.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Move below 0.9816 would expose 0.9745\/12 area. \t\t\tNear-term resistance at 0.9905.
\nEURCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.3029 ahead of 1.3131, \t\t\tsupport lies at 1.2867.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Remains heavy below 0.8450; a push below 0.8356 would \t\t\texpose 0.8332\/13 zone.
\nEURJPY BULLISH Look for a break above114.94 for extension of the \t\t\tbull trend towards 115.42\/68. Near-term support holds at 112.95.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Price action lacked conviction during the Asia session, despite the emergence of a partial agreement at the weekend G20 meeting. EURUSD traded 1.3666-1.3716, USDJPY 83.02-83.19. The S&P 500 finished up 0.19% with volumes hitting a three-week high.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19709","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19709"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19709\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19709"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19709"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19709"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}